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  • #181
  • Sep 6, 2007 11:39am Sep 6, 2007 11:39am
  •  fxer
  • | Joined Sep 2007 | Status: will work for beer | 5 Posts
Here is an example from 31 Aug as to the reason for some of the differences. In this example a profit of 95 was reported for this trade, while I got a loss of 90 pips. Other times it is just a matter of bad fills vs good fills. I am not trying to be negative here, just look into it for yourself if you are sufficiently interested...
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  • #182
  • Sep 6, 2007 11:55am Sep 6, 2007 11:55am
To make work this method you need to do two things
1. use a 4th yunit that has chance to complete the day with a large amount of pips if that is the case. This way you can leave profit to run.
2. move your SL to BE using whatever rules you belive is valid. For example when the second TP has been hit.. This way you will not turn winners to loosers.
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  • #183
  • Sep 6, 2007 2:21pm Sep 6, 2007 2:21pm
Thanks for Mike's contribution!

However, I 90% think that this method won't work.

My reasons:
1. Days for ranging market is more than days for trending market.
(I have no statistics proof, you feel yourself).
2. Last week in August, anyway we can make money, since there are drastic moves.
3. 90 SL vs 95 TP, 1:1 risk/return ratio. So I changed to 80 SL vs 120 TP, still no luck. And this is not the fundamental reason.

The fundamental reason is the 1st reason, you cannot use this method in days like this week.

Sorry, my snapshot is in Chinese, but basically show you a MT4 backtest results, only GJ is shown here, I tried UJ, EurUsd. All failed.

starting fund 10000, profit: -8701; testing days: 2374.
the curve shows how the 10000 initial fund drains away -- pretty stable pattern.

Well, we all know MT4's tester is not that reliable, I tried to download more data and set all parameters to my best knowledge. Even MT4 not that reliable, I still see this method as a no go.

To this point, I recommend using this method necessarily WITH additional TA to identify market momentum. Without momentum (that is not always available), this method is bad. I'm simply communicating my own opinion, no hard feelings. Mike, you still did a good job, we are keeping thinking and learning all together here.
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  • #184
  • Sep 6, 2007 3:58pm Sep 6, 2007 3:58pm
Quoting charvo
Thanks for Mike's contribution!

However, I 90% think that this method won't work.

My reasons:
1. Days for ranging market is more than days for trending market.
True
(I have no statistics proof, you feel yourself).

2. Last week in August, anyway we can make money, since there are drastic moves.
True

3. 90 SL vs 95 TP, 1:1 risk/return ratio. So I changed to 80 SL vs 120 TP, still no luck. And this is not the fundamental reason.
True
1.I have added a 4th unit that I have left till the end of the day.
2.Moved the SL to BE after 30 pips move.

The fundamental reason is the 1st reason, you cannot use this method in days like this week.

Sorry, my snapshot is in Chinese, but basically show you a MT4 backtest results, only GJ is shown here, I tried UJ, EurUsd. All failed.

starting fund 10000, profit: -8701; testing days: 2374.
the curve shows how the 10000 initial fund drains away -- pretty stable pattern.

Well, we all know MT4's tester is not that reliable, I tried to download more data and set all parameters to my best knowledge. Even MT4 not that reliable, I still see this method as a no go.

To this point, I recommend using this method necessarily WITH additional TA to identify market momentum. Without momentum (that is not always available), this method is bad. I'm simply communicating my own opinion, no hard feelings. Mike, you still did a good job, we are keeping thinking and learning all together here.
Did you care to read my previous post yes? no? I have made detailed calculations. To your disappointment it does work and evrages 28 pips a day on GU with 4 units using the enhancements I have mentioned.
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  • #185
  • Sep 6, 2007 4:01pm Sep 6, 2007 4:01pm
Oh and, from my professional experience, the EA doesn't work of the Metatrader. I have made several strategies they were all loosers using the Metatrader however when I cared to write C++ code and backtest my own code and/or backtest manually they suddenly became winners... . But the Metatrader is a black box to me and I know exactly what I have done. So I trust my own code.
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  • #186
  • Sep 6, 2007 4:22pm Sep 6, 2007 4:22pm
Quoting bullrock
My idea is to do this. We got the high and low of the previous day.
So as per the rules of Daily95pips I go long high+5 pips and go short high -10% of the previous days high-low. The SL of the long is the short leg. We could do on another account or if hedging available on the same account the reverse. Or if the previous bar is bullish just do the long/short leg. if the previous bar is bearish than do the short/long leg. But this is a completely different strategy and would require another thread.
Would you mind posting a chart for clarification? I apologize, I just tend to be more visual. Thanks!

Chris
  • #187
  • Sep 6, 2007 4:26pm Sep 6, 2007 4:26pm
Quoting bksujal
Mate i can't guarantee it that my strategy would fetch a 95 pips daily, but yes it could get you 50 pips or even more. My results for today were:
Usd/Jpy = 25 pips
Eur/Jpy = 60 pips
Net = 85 pips
And i am happy to continue in this thread, not interested in starting a new one.
Regards,
Bksujal
Hi Bksujal,

I think your entry method is valid, and you seem to be doing very well. But I think most of us are in the dark regarding how you place your TP and SL targets.

For example, do you place only one TP, or several levels, as Mike does? Better yet, can you tell us where your TP & SL targets were placed in the above referenced trades?

It would be most helpful if you would kindly tell us specifically where you place your TP target (s) and SL for each of the pairs you trade.

In other words, we'd like to see the specific set of rules you use, that are responsible for success with your method. Also, this will help us visualize how your trades develop, and will be a good point from which we can experiment further.

Thanks for sharing this with us...
Jeff Singer, K2KV
  • #188
  • Sep 6, 2007 4:36pm Sep 6, 2007 4:36pm
Quoting bullrock
To make work this method you need to do two things
1. use a 4th yunit that has chance to complete the day with a large amount of pips if that is the case. This way you can leave profit to run.
2. move your SL to BE using whatever rules you belive is valid. For example when the second TP has been hit.. This way you will not turn winners to loosers.
Oh, yeah, great insights!
Just want newbies like me who also follow this thread to understand that we should add more safe belts into this system before we go to live account.

by the way, I didn't test GU tho. But it's exciting to know that you did it. Bring it on.
  • #189
  • Sep 6, 2007 4:44pm Sep 6, 2007 4:44pm
Just to recap, I made a few changes to the basic 95pip rules, as follows:

Changed SL to 15 (was 30)
Changed TP to 10, 15, 20 (was 15, 30, 50).

Results:

Eur/$ -45 instead of -90
Eur/JY No hits
US/JY -20 instead of -50
Net for the day -65 instead of -140

Note that due to my inexact entry time, my EU/JY buy orders canceled just five minutes before I would have seen +45 on this pair.

So, results not so good for me today.

Based on my last two days trading with real $1 lots, I most likely will not trade with any unattended method overnight into tomorrow, especially since the NFP report is due in the morning. When I start up again (probably Monday), I will most likely experiment with Bksujal's system, and see where that takes me.

Happy trading to all!
Jeff Singer, K2KV
  • #190
  • Edited 5:10pm Sep 6, 2007 4:50pm | Edited 5:10pm
Date: Monday 3 September
GBPUSD no touch
GBPJPY no touch
USDJPY no touch
EURJPY no touch
EURGBP -10
EURUSD -20

Total: -30pips

Comment: Another slow Monday, this time attributed to US Labour Holiday. So there was very little activity. The only pairs that triggered were EURGBP and EURUSD,and it happened late in the session. Thus these trades were manually closed before the new orders were placed.

Date: Tuesday 4 September
GBPUSD +95
GBPJPY +95
USDJPY breakeven
EURJPY +95
EURGBP -90
EURUSD +40

Total: +235pips

Comment: It's nice to see the pairs breaking out again and getting back into the swing of things ! The USDJPY short trade reached the 1st PT before retracing to stop out the remaining 2 lots. It then proceeded to trigger the long orders, reaching the 1st PT and I then manually closed out the remainder to make way for the new days orders, thus resulting in a breakeven scenario. The EURUSD short trade reached the 2nd PT and I manually closed out the remainder.

Date: Wednesday 5 September 2007
GBPUSD -25
GBPJPY -75
USDJPY -69
EURJPY -45
EURGBP no touch
EURUSD +63

Total: -151pips

Comment: Days like these are a good reminder of the downside potential. Both long and short orders were triggered on GBPUSD, GBPJPY and USDJPY, with only partial profits achieved before retracing and stopping out. I can only conclude that using multiple profit targets help to hedge the positions.

Date: Thursday 6 September 2007
GBPUSD +45
GBPJPY -45
USDJPY -90
EURJPY -45
EURGBP -90
EURUSD +60

Total: -210pips

Comment: This weeks ranging market continues to play havoc with this system. Breakouts from the previous days high or low are only proving sufficient to trigger the trades before retracing back within the daily range.
I've started to adopt moving the stop on the 50TP trade to breakeven after the first 2 profit targets have been reached. Thus the better result for GBPUSD. Currently -156pips overall for the week.
  • #191
  • Sep 6, 2007 5:06pm Sep 6, 2007 5:06pm
I'd just like to thank everyone for their contribution to this thread. The great thing about forexfactory is that there are so many experienced traders to help newbies like myself learn more about trading.
Some of the things I've learnt so far from this thread are:
1.) This strategy is suited to a trending market, NOT a ranging market. How we identify them before they occur is another story....hindsight is certainly a wonderful thing.
2.) Moving up the stop loss on the 50TP trade can help to maximise profits.
According to the profit targets on post#1, this can mean the difference between gaining +15pips and +45pips. This however, relies on being around to monitor the trades and adjust the stops accordingly, which takes away from the original 'set and forget' objective.

This thread is proving to be a great learning tool.

mike:
  • #192
  • Sep 6, 2007 5:42pm Sep 6, 2007 5:42pm
  •  fxer
  • | Joined Sep 2007 | Status: will work for beer | 5 Posts
One of the problems with using a system like this over a wide range of different pairs, is the differences in volatility. I think that instead of using arbitrary figures for taking profit and for stops, perhaps you should consider using a percentage of ATR. For example for the take profit levels, you could use 10%, 20% and 30% of ATR for each pair, with a stop of say 20% ATR (I haven't tested any of these, they are just numbers off the top of my head). I also agree with Bullrock, that you need to have a position that gets held till the end of day, or perhaps 2X ATR or something so you can pick up those occasional big moves that happen only a few days each month, as those often news driven events will probably account for the majority of your monthly profit IMHO.
Axel.
  • #193
  • Sep 6, 2007 8:26pm Sep 6, 2007 8:26pm
I have traded forex for some time now and most often I trade breakouts,so I will add my 2 cents. I like the basic thought of the point for the breakout,however I have yet to find a generic set it and forget it system.

1. Time of day is very important,I believe placing Oder's at 5PM is asking for trouble,especially if we do not close mid range on the daily candle. Any pair that deals with the jpy that is close to triggering,will often sweep the trigger and fail. The first 1 to 2 hours of the Asian session can be some of the most difficult forex action of the entire 24 hour period,imo. The closer orders can be entered to the open of the EUR...GBP session,greatly raises the probability that the breakout will have follow thru.

2. In my mind the whole basis of the trade is assuming you are going to get 50 pips,that is a very big assumption. Any time you fail to reach the 50 pip level and it comes back to stop you out the best you can have is a 15 pip winner. I have used a trailing stop on the last third of each of my entries. This change alone has greatly reduced my losses.

3. Failed breakouts are most often nasty!!! in many of the pairs it is not necessary to hang around for 30 pips if the level is broken and then quickly fails. When I look to enter a trade one of the most important aspects in my decision making is where can I find a key level to hide behind in terms of a stop. I may find a real nice entry point,but if the level I need to hide behind is too far away I will most often pass on the trade or use much smaller size.

4.In the same manner assuming you are long and i will use the Eur/Usd as my example tonight. Previous day high is 3710 where do I expect the next key resistance level that will slow this play down. The next key level is R1 at 3722. The same thinking applies as when looking for a stop point. Where is my first target,and in this case it is R1 and that is only 7 pips away if you place your entry 5 pips beyond the previous day high. Therefore, I can not enter this trade because I do not have 30 pips between key levels to get my partial. In this case I don't even have room for the 15 partial. In my mind the Eur/usd is not even a consideration on the long side in this session.

5.Lets now review the Eur/Usd short entry.Previous day low is 3635.You already have to break below S1 3647 to get to your trigger.This is very important for two reasons. First the eur/usd often uses s1 and r1 as stopping points,maybe even moreso than many of the other pairs. Your entry now becomes 3630( which is too great of a distance on this pair in my mind),and you now Identify you next key level which is s2 at 3603!! BIngo you now have the parameters you are looking for. Well almost and this is extremely important!!!! your target on this play should be your normal 15 pips on the first entry but your second target should be like 25 or 26 pips......not just your standard 30 pips. S2 3603 is a very key level but that does not mean it will always hit that number exact,you dont want to screw up a play trying to get to the exact pip,nor would you ever want your second partial a few pips beyond s2,it may never break thru that level. Ok now lets not forget about our stop price just incase yhis beautiful setup fails. Remember we had to break thru S1 3647 to get to the trigger . If we make a new low and then come back and test s1 and we can not hold that level to the downside,there is no longer a reason to stay with this trade. My stop would then be 3650, 3 pips above S1. In the event I get stopped out my exposure is only 20 pips,and I will bet that if s1 does not hold your 30 pip stop also gets taken out. Very long winded but a different way possibly to view the setups,no two setups are usually the same!
  • #194
  • Sep 6, 2007 9:03pm Sep 6, 2007 9:03pm
The more I analyze it, the more Bksujal's system of range trading makes sense. The market ranges more than it trends, especially with cross currencies. However, to protect against a trending market with a ranging system it may be feasible to take the current price as of 00:00 GMT and add 25% of the prior day's range to determine your short position. Subtract 25% of the prior day's range to determine your long position. Set TP at intervals of 10, 15, 20, & 25 pips from entry price. I would set the SL at 50 pips from entry price. The key is to not trade during major news events. I would focus on traditional range bound pairs such as EUR/CHF, EUR/GBP, or perhaps even EUR/JPY. I think this could yield 25 - 60 pips daily with minimal chance of a SL.

Thanks,

Walt
  • #195
  • Sep 6, 2007 11:51pm Sep 6, 2007 11:51pm
Quoting fxer
One of the problems with using a system like this over a wide range of different pairs, is the differences in volatility. I think that instead of using arbitrary figures for taking profit and for stops, perhaps you should consider using a percentage of ATR. For example for the take profit levels, you could use 10%, 20% and 30% of ATR for each pair, with a stop of say 20% ATR (I haven't tested any of these, they are just numbers off the top of my head). I also agree with Bullrock, that you need to have a position that gets held till the end of day, or perhaps 2X ATR or something so you can pick up those occasional big moves that happen only a few days each month, as those often news driven events will probably account for the majority of your monthly profit IMHO.
Axel.
Nice point !
GJ always moves 2 pips when UJ moves 1 pip, it is obviously not appropirate to use a fixed number of SL/TP.
  • #196
  • Sep 6, 2007 11:52pm Sep 6, 2007 11:52pm
Quoting jones247
The more I analyze it, the more Bksujal's system of range trading makes sense. The market ranges more than it trends, especially with cross currencies. However, to protect against a trending market with a ranging system it may be feasible to take the current price as of 00:00 GMT and add 25% of the prior day's range to determine your short position. Subtract 25% of the prior day's range to determine your long position. Set TP at intervals of 10, 15, 20, & 25 pips from entry price. I would set the SL at 50 pips from entry price. The key is to not trade during major news events. I would focus on traditional range bound pairs such as EUR/CHF, EUR/GBP, or perhaps even EUR/JPY. I think this could yield 25 - 60 pips daily with minimal chance of a SL.

Thanks,

Walt
Here, another door is opened by you for us , well of coz based on Bksujal's contributions.
  • #197
  • Sep 7, 2007 5:02am Sep 7, 2007 5:02am
Ok now guys have a look at this which is for today's eur/jpy in which i again made 50+ pips. Remember you are supposes to draw vertical lines on your chart from 17 Et to 17 Et. On this chart i have circled the high, low and the close of the day which is close to the high's. So today we would be looking to go short.
Yesterday's high's = 158.23
Yesterday's low's = 156.74
Range = 149 pips 10% = 14.9 pips round to 15
Today's Entry point = 158.23-15 pips = 158.08
Well some people are curious about my Tp and s/l. Well for the Tp i use the Atr to determine the range. Well and for stops i use a 1:2 risk/reward ratio. So today my stop was 40 pips to reward @ 80 pips.
Good luck in all your trades. Happy Trading.
Regards,
Rahul
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  • #198
  • Sep 7, 2007 5:20am Sep 7, 2007 5:20am
A bit of this and that.

So I have made a bit of analysis in excel.
There can be problem with the accuracy because I have done the analysis on daily data. The analysis takes into consideration only the long side.
The strategy:
5 units -> 4 TP + 1 EOD
TP1 15% of the daily ATR(14)
TP1 30% of the daily ATR(14)
TP1 45% of the daily ATR(14)
TP1 60% of the daily ATR(14)
SL is 20% of the daily ATR(14)

The analysis:
Gu from 1999.09.14 - 2007.08.31 or 2073 days
Only long side. (I was lazy )

Total:
TP1 = 15 890.7 pips
TP2 = 22 101.8 pips
TP3 = 22 381.7 pips
TP4 = 20 614.1 pips
EOD = 41 633 pips
Total = 122 621.2 pips without the losses

Losses without break even and without sl that is close at the end of the day: -298 918 pips
Result: -176 296 pips or -85 pips a day.
Clearly this way it is a looser strategy.

Losses with moving to be after TP2 is hit: -112 214 pips
Result: +10407.2 pips or 5 pips a day or 1 pip a day / unit
It is better but this is still something I wouldn't go for.

Now let us see the effect of 20% of SL of the ATR(14) and move to BE when TP2 is hit: -26 402.8 pips
Result: +96 209.4 pips or 46 pips a day or 9.2 pip a day / unit

Well this is not too bad.

Have fun.
Regards
bullrock
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  • #199
  • Sep 7, 2007 6:26am Sep 7, 2007 6:26am
Quoting mikelath
Originally Posted by mikelath http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
It's seems that I am unable to edit the above post, so results may need to be given on separate posts as we go along.
The first day's results are posted here. It was a very mediocre day due to low volatility in the market, highly attributed to the Bank Holiday in the UK.

Date: Monday 27 August 2007

GBPUSD GBPJPY USDJPY EURJPY EURGBP EURUSD
+15pips +15pips -45pips +15pips no touch no touch

Happy pipping !

Ok. I'll try to get more organised with the results. As i can edit this post (unlike post#2), I hope to add all future results here. I'll also add daily comments, serving the purpose of a trading journal.

Date: Tuesday 28 August 2007
GBPUSD + 95
GBPJPY +95
USDJPY +95
EURJPY +15
EURGBP +23
EURUSD -90

Total: +233pips

Comment: A good day overall. EURJPY came within 2pips of the 50 profit target. EURGBP 15pips PT was reached and the other 2 lots were closed out manually before new orders were placed for the next day.

Date: Wednesday 29 August 2007
GBPUSD -180
GBPJPY -30
USDJPY +105
EURJPY +190
EURGBP +15
EURUSD +95

Total: +195pips

Comment: A very interesting day. GBPUSD and GBPJPY were triggered and stopped out soon after placing the orders. Both the long and short orders were triggered on numerous pairs...some for the better, some not so. Closed out 2 lots on EURGBP at breakeven to make way for new orders. Overall, another good result.

Date: Thursday 30 August
GBPUSD -90
GBPJPY no touch
USDJPY no touch
EURJPY no touch
EURGBP no touch
EURUSD no touch

Total: -90pips

Comment: As we can see it was a pretty uneventful day. The long trade on GBPUSD was the only one that triggered. All others traded within the range of the previous days high and low. It happens. We can't expect a breakout every single day. Patience and sticking with the system is the key.

Date: Friday 31 August
GBPUSD +15
GBPJPY +95
USDJPY +15
EURJPY +95
EURGBP +12
EURUSD +15

Total: +247pips

Comment: USDJPY long trade came within 3pips of 50TP before retracing. EURJPY long came within 3pips of stop before proceeding to 100pips above entry, achieving all 3 profit targets. Again manually closed out EURGBP short for a nominal +4pips on each order.
This is the first day so far that all pairs were profitable.

Total for this week and month of August: +585pips

Happy pipping everybody !

Date: Monday 3 September
GBPUSD no touch
GBPJPY no touch
USDJPY no touch
EURJPY no touch
EURGBP -10
EURUSD -20

Total: -30pips

Comment: Another slow Monday, this time attributed to US Labour Holiday. So there was very little activity. The only pairs that triggered were EURGBP and EURUSD,and it happened late in the session. Thus these trades were manually closed before the new orders were placed.

Date: Tuesday 4 September
GBPUSD +95
GBPJPY +95
USDJPY breakeven
EURJPY +95
EURGBP -90
EURUSD +40

Total: +235pips

Comment: It's nice to see the pairs breaking out again and getting back into the swing of things ! The USDJPY short trade reached the 1st PT before retracing to stop out the remaining 2 lots. It then proceeded to trigger the long orders, reaching the 1st PT and I then manually closed out the remainder to make way for the new days orders, thus resulting in a breakeven scenario. The EURUSD short trade reached the 2nd PT and I manually closed out the remainder.
please my time here is GMT+1 and i need to know about the strategies. i do as u direct but my metal trade responds invalid SL/TP and you say i would add 10pips at the previous day close price. so please lecture me on how to excape the invalid TP/SL and also how to make it work, i really want to test and see how it works .thanks so much and again if there was any other strategies that related to 50% gain kindly give me links as well. waiting.
  • #200
  • Sep 7, 2007 8:44am Sep 7, 2007 8:44am
Quoting bksujal
Ok now guys have a look at this which is for today's eur/jpy in which i again made 50+ pips. Remember you are supposes to draw vertical lines on your chart from 17 Et to 17 Et. On this chart i have circled the high, low and the close of the day which is close to the high's. So today we would be looking to go short.
Yesterday's high's = 158.23
Yesterday's low's = 156.74
Range = 149 pips 10% = 14.9 pips round to 15
Today's Entry point = 158.23-15 pips = 158.08
Well some people are curious about my Tp and s/l. Well for the Tp i use the Atr to determine the range. Well and for stops i use a 1:2 risk/reward ratio. So today my stop was 40 pips to reward @ 80 pips.
Good luck in all your trades. Happy Trading.
Regards,
Rahul
Hi Rahul,

Thanks for posting your charts, and for providing additional SL/TP information. It's all very helpful.

Can you please explain further how you determine your SL/TP targets based on ATR? How did you decide on 40/80 for today?

Thanks again!
Jeff Singer, K2KV
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