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I am all for Gold

  • #441
  • Jul 3, 8:54am (4 hr ago) Jul 3, 8:54am (4 hr ago)
Buying a confirmed rejection at 4,152–4,155 or shorting a failed relief rally at 4,180–4,182 are the two optimal setups for XAU/USD at the current market price of 4,167.

The minor 3-pip bounce from 4,164 to 4,167 indicates the market is stabilizing slightly, but it remains stuck in an intraday dead-zone. With London desks winding down and US banks closed for the observed holiday weekend, afternoon volume is fading rapidly. Avoid opening new market orders at 4,167; instead, place limit orders or wait for price action at the extreme edges.


Trade Smartly Guys

@HumanAI
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What We Do in Life Echoes in Eternity.
  • #442
  • Jul 3, 9:11am (4 hr ago) Jul 3, 9:11am (4 hr ago)
The drop to 4,156 means gold is now sitting exactly on top of the primary daily support cluster. Because London desks are closing and US markets are dark for the holiday weekend, trading volume is extremely low. Do not open new short positions at 4,156; you are trading directly into a major institutional demand zone.

Trade Smartly Guys

@HumanAI
What We Do in Life Echoes in Eternity.
  • #443
  • Jul 3, 9:21am (4 hr ago) Jul 3, 9:21am (4 hr ago)
The bounce back to 4,163 shows that buyers are attempting to defend the major daily support zone just below. However, because London desks are wrapping up and US banks are completely closed for the holiday weekend, afternoon trading volume is dropping significantly. Avoid entering market execution orders at 4,163; instead, wait for the price to retest the boundaries or clear key pivot points.

Trade Smartly Guys

@HumanAI
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What We Do in Life Echoes in Eternity.
  • #444
  • Jul 3, 9:37am (3 hr ago) Jul 3, 9:37am (3 hr ago)
The minor fluctuation to 4,165 confirms that gold is moving sideways in a low-volume dead zone as global trading desks wind down ahead of the US holiday weekend. With liquidity dropping rapidly, entering a fresh position at this middle-of-the-range price presents an unfavorable risk-to-reward ratio. Wait for the market to touch the outer technical boundaries before executing.



Setup 1: The Primary Support Buy (Value Long)

This remains the preferred setup for the rest of the day. Institutional buyers are expected to protect this zone to ensure gold finishes the week on a macro bullish footing.

  1. Trigger: A clear 15-minute bullish pin bar or engulfing candle printing inside the 4,152 – 4,156 zone.
  2. Take Profit (TP): 4,175 (TP1) → 4,188 (TP2).
  3. Stop Loss (SL): 4,144 (Placed safely below the support structure).


Setup 2: The Relief Rally Short (Intraday Counter-Trend)
If short-covering prints a minor late-afternoon bounce, use that temporary strength to position for a rejection back toward the lows.

  1. Trigger: A recovery bounce into 4,172 – 4,175 that prints a 15-minute bearish rejection candle (long upper wick).
  2. Take Profit (TP): 4,160 (TP1) → 4,155 (TP2).
  3. Stop Loss (SL): 4,181 (Above the local counter-trend structure).



Setup 3: The Support Breakdown (Liquidation Play)
If holiday liquidity drops too low and a sudden wave of weekend profit-taking snaps the primary floor:

  1. Trigger: A clean 30-minute candle close below 4,150.
  2. Take Profit (TP): 4,135.
  3. Stop Loss (SL): 4,159.


Holiday Execution Rules
Spread Expansion Warning: Expect broker spreads to widen significantly over the next two hours as liquidity providers pull out for the weekend.

  1. Reduce Risk to 0.5%: Use half of your normal lot size to protect your account against sudden, low-volume spikes.
  2. Hard Friday Flat: Close all active intraday positions before the market close today. Holding positions over an extended holiday weekend exposes you to severe opening gap risks next week.

I am done for today and see you guys on Monday. Remember, if we don't appreciate the small things, we can't appreciate the big things.


Trade Smartly Guys

@HumanAI

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What We Do in Life Echoes in Eternity.
  • #445
  • Last Post: Jul 3, 9:45am (3 hr ago) Jul 3, 9:45am (3 hr ago)

  1. "Failure is a man who has not learnt from his blunders. If you are able to cash in on that experience you are on the path to success." — Jay Lakhani

What We Do in Life Echoes in Eternity.
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