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  • #20,921
  • Edited 4:18am Jul 2, 3:37am (12 hr ago) | Edited 4:18am
Quoting Js3mwtRc
I have 1.1450 based on option expiries today as a ceiling but for nfp not before. Bulls can shoot above that and move to 1.1500 next especially if nfp misses estimates! 1.1400/22 then should be a floor for buyers.... nothing yet just preparing!
I wanted to buy EU but saw GU has done almost 100 pips to the upside today. I don't know if it means down after NFP.
  • #20,922
  • Jul 2, 3:43am (12 hr ago) Jul 2, 3:43am (12 hr ago)
NFP

SCENARIO 1: Soft Downshift
Probability: 55% Headline data: +100K — +115K new jobs.

SCENARIO 2: Labor Resilience
Probability: 25% Headline data: > +135K new jobs.

SCENARIO 3: Hard Landing Shock
Probability: 20% Headline data: < +85K new jobs.
chaos is just unknown order
  • #20,923
  • Jul 2, 3:48am (12 hr ago) Jul 2, 3:48am (12 hr ago)
Quoting Mitiblotch
{quote} I wanted to buy EU but saw GU has done almost 100 pips to the upside today. I don't know it means down after NFP.
How can one predict what it means for the NFP? If it goes up or down?
  • #20,924
  • Jul 2, 3:57am (12 hr ago) Jul 2, 3:57am (12 hr ago)
Quoting Mitiblotch
{quote} I wanted to buy EU but saw GU has done almost 100 pips to the upside today. I don't know it means down after NFP.
Possible profit taking for the 4th of July, US markets will be closed tomorrow. In this case a big upmove can spike a little more up and come back down again.
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #20,925
  • Jul 2, 4:12am (12 hr ago) Jul 2, 4:12am (12 hr ago)
Looks like its time for the big boys to take the Bulls out back behind the woodshed for a asswhoopin
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  • #20,926
  • Jul 2, 4:13am (12 hr ago) Jul 2, 4:13am (12 hr ago)
Quoting AK.47
{quote} How can one predict what it means for the NFP? If it goes up or down?
No way to predict, but with a macro scanner u can see probabilities, and take a pick for your next trade
chaos is just unknown order
  • #20,927
  • Jul 2, 4:15am (12 hr ago) Jul 2, 4:15am (12 hr ago)
Quoting Luxyus
{quote} No way to predict, but with a macro scanner u can see probabilities, and take a pick for your next trade
appreciate you gang
  • #20,928
  • Jul 2, 4:35am (11 hr ago) Jul 2, 4:35am (11 hr ago)
Quoting Luxyus
{quote} a deep stop hunt pre data, but it s still a SOER for me
see? never, never use a stop loss of less than 50 pips for intraday, it s the common move of MM hunts. Keep alive your trades don t make such a silly mistake or u ll feed the beasts.
chaos is just unknown order
  • #20,929
  • Jul 2, 5:32am (10 hr ago) Jul 2, 5:32am (10 hr ago)
1.14360 is my premium for bears.

NFP, goodbye technicals.
Easy Does it.
  • #20,930
  • Jul 2, 6:00am (10 hr ago) Jul 2, 6:00am (10 hr ago)
Quoting stealyerface
1.14360 is my premium for bears. NFP, goodbye technicals.
My premium is at 1.14725 and above ... lets see how NFP plays out
  • #20,931
  • Jul 2, 6:18am (10 hr ago) Jul 2, 6:18am (10 hr ago)
Quoting Meer-Shayhak
{quote} My premium is at 1.14725 and above ... lets see how NFP plays out
Agreed that HTF show a potential larger retracement.
Easy Does it.
  • #20,932
  • Jul 2, 7:56am (8 hr ago) Jul 2, 7:56am (8 hr ago)
DXY OUTLOOK

DXY is at a critical support zone .. i was anticipating a DXY to retrace till 100.5 which we did ..
there is still potential for DXY to go even lower at 100.4 ...
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  • #20,933
  • Jul 2, 8:13am (8 hr ago) Jul 2, 8:13am (8 hr ago)
yeah nice call man just checked guys dxy is at a weekly aio just sayin!
  • #20,934
  • Jul 2, 8:19am (8 hr ago) Jul 2, 8:19am (8 hr ago)
i will switch to lower time frames probaly m15 to look for shorts
  • #20,935
  • Jul 2, 9:05am (7 hr ago) Jul 2, 9:05am (7 hr ago)
Personally, this is one of those times when I sit it out for a while and let the manipulation, jockeying or whatever you want to call it find a balance. Direction can shift back and forth so fast that more times than not I end up on the wrong side more often and end up giving back my 'daily bread'. Yesterday, I had 27 winning trades, 1 flat, and 5 losers. My 5 losers were the largest of all my trades due to manipulation yet I still grew my gross total account by nearly 4% in one day. On a day like this even one major sweep that happens to be agaist an open position can wipe a weeks worth of gains before you can spit. Remember, nookie is nice but sometimes it ain't worth the price. I am 100% in cash.
  • #20,936
  • Jul 2, 9:16am (7 hr ago) Jul 2, 9:16am (7 hr ago)
Quoting Js3mwtRc
I have 1.1450 based on option expiries today as a ceiling but for nfp not before. Bulls can shoot above that and move to 1.1500 next especially if nfp misses estimates! 1.1400/22 then should be a floor for buyers.... nothing yet just preparing!
Preparation meets opportunity! This is my case now but eu might go to 1.1500 before a correction. Anyway staying strict to my plan.
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #20,937
  • Jul 2, 9:20am (7 hr ago) Jul 2, 9:20am (7 hr ago)
Quoting Twocans
Personally, this is one of those times when I sit it out for a while and let the manipulation, jockeying or whatever you want to call it find a balance. Direction can shift back and forth so fast that more times than not I end up on the wrong side more often and end up giving back my 'daily bread'. Yesterday, I had 27 winning trades, 1 flat, and 5 losers. My 5 losers were the largest of all my trades due to manipulation yet I still grew my gross total account by nearly 4% in one day. On a day like this even one major sweep that happens to be agaist...
I can definitely relate to this. I gave back most of my gains because of the constant back-and-forth moves and ended up giving back around 2.2% from my peak.
Looking back, I should have stayed flat and simply observed. I completely agree with your point. The market kept flipping from bullish to bearish so quickly that I struggled to understand what it really wanted to do.
Days like these remind me that preserving capital is just as important as making it.
“Fall seven times, stand up eight.”
  • #20,938
  • Jul 2, 9:38am (6 hr ago) Jul 2, 9:38am (6 hr ago)
Quoting Luxyus
NFP SCENARIO 1: Soft Downshift Probability: 55% Headline data: +100K — +115K new jobs. SCENARIO 2: Labor Resilience Probability: 25% Headline data: > +135K new jobs. SCENARIO 3: Hard Landing Shock Probability: 20% Headline data: < +85K new jobs.
So the less probable scenario has come out. What a great opportunity for MM to go in a very deep liquidity grab in a market shakeout. The excess of the impulse has already been absorbed. Back to the macro trend, unless some new suprise pops up.
chaos is just unknown order
  • #20,939
  • Jul 2, 9:58am (6 hr ago) Jul 2, 9:58am (6 hr ago)
Quoting arjunansh
{quote} I can definitely relate to this. I gave back most of my gains because of the constant back-and-forth moves and ended up giving back around 2.2% from my peak. Looking back, I should have stayed flat and simply observed. I completely agree with your point. The market kept flipping from bullish to bearish so quickly that I struggled to understand what it really wanted to do. Days like these remind me that preserving capital is just as important as making it.
What the market (big money) wants is exactly that. If you ever watched a top load washing machine agitator swish back and forth this is how they balance their positions without going anywhere except beating up retail. This happen to be AUD/USD but they all get the same treatment. I wait the "narrow state" to setup a solid opportunity, NOTHING is 100% Pass some time watching this vid... lot of Forex nuggets.
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  • #20,940
  • Last Post: Jul 2, 11:09am (5 hr ago) Jul 2, 11:09am (5 hr ago)
This was five years ago and nothing has changed. If you don't understand 'Location and State' you are just guessing. This is 40 years of experience and "IT IS SIMPLE BUT IT IS NOT EASY". The hard part to fix is between your ears.

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