Attachments: Gold with No Drama

Gold with No Drama

#60,881
Jul 2, 2:44am (2 hr 42 min ago) Jul 2, 2:44am (2 hr 42 min ago)

thebigshot
Joined Mar 2025 | Status: Crack Dealer | 431 Posts

Quoting Raicha

Disliked

{quote} What does this mean for gold ?

Ignored

ask ai chatbot, it will give better explanation than moi

Asymmetric home run trades only! If U cannt, then STFU

#60,882
Jul 2, 2:47am (2 hr 39 min ago) Jul 2, 2:47am (2 hr 39 min ago)

Raicha
| Joined Jun 2025 | Status: Trader | 71 Posts | Online Now

Quoting thebigshot

Disliked

{quote} ask ai chatbot, it will give better explanation than moi

Ignored

Chatgbt said it means often gold will fall , hopefully , waiting for that 3900 zone -_-

#60,883
Jul 2, 2:50am (2 hr 37 min ago) Jul 2, 2:50am (2 hr 37 min ago)

illifx
| Joined Nov 2024 | Status: Trader | 3 Posts | Online Now

guys dont try to short it. today is gold extremely bullish just try to form A + setup.
Ive already bought from 50-52 levels and made decent profits. Safe trades to all during NFP!!!

#60,884
Jul 2, 2:50am (2 hr 37 min ago) Jul 2, 2:50am (2 hr 37 min ago)

greenpips88
| Joined Jan 2026 | Status: Trader | 43 Posts | Online Now

I thought NFP comes every first Friday of the month. Why is it out today?

#60,885
Jul 2, 2:51am (2 hr 36 min ago) Jul 2, 2:51am (2 hr 36 min ago)

illifx
| Joined Nov 2024 | Status: Trader | 3 Posts | Online Now

Friday is a bank holiday, so they moved NFP to Thursday

#60,886
Jul 2, 2:51am (2 hr 35 min ago) Jul 2, 2:51am (2 hr 35 min ago)

cameron777
| Joined Sep 2023 | Status: Trader | 95 Posts | Online Now

Quoting greenpips88

Disliked

I thought NFP comes every first Friday of the month. Why is it out today?

Ignored

The markets are closed Friday for Independence Day

#60,887
Jul 2, 2:56am (2 hr 31 min ago) Jul 2, 2:56am (2 hr 31 min ago)

Eren10
Joined Aug 2010 | Status: Trader | 1,836 Posts | Online Now

Quoting ZennithFool

Disliked

{quote} What do you mean Japan is intervening? Enlighten me.

Ignored

USDJPY is going (went) down. So they are selling dollars and buying Yen.

#60,888
Jul 2, 3:06am (2 hr 20 min ago) Jul 2, 3:06am (2 hr 20 min ago)

Raicha
| Joined Jun 2025 | Status: Trader | 71 Posts | Online Now

Quoting illifx

Disliked

guys dont try to short it. today is gold extremely bullish just try to form A + setup. Ive already bought from 50-52 levels and made decent profits. Safe trades to all during NFP!!!

Ignored

I would not be so sure about buys aswell tho

#60,889
Jul 2, 3:09am (2 hr 18 min ago) Jul 2, 3:09am (2 hr 18 min ago)

LeongPuiy
Joined Sep 2018 | Status: Trader | 11,199 Posts

Quoting azhantahir

Disliked

{quote} Overall still bearish for weekly and monthly. Bearish still not over yet. D1 uncertain, maybe just for a push start for July. Final bearish will complete its wave soon . Personally, I need a lower ask to become fully bullish. Hopefully, 3800 becomes reality for the final of Monthly Sweep. Just personal ideas; all depends on the current proposal. IMHO

Ignored

my weekly next target was 388X.
so far still bullish under 4H tf.
several buy BE now. Stay sideway waiting NFP release to decide.

#60,890
Jul 2, 3:14am (2 hr 13 min ago) Jul 2, 3:14am (2 hr 13 min ago)

HonzaD
| Joined Jul 2025 | Status: Trader | 66 Posts | Online Now

Quoting thebigshot

Disliked

nfp +258k most public sector hiring private hiring positive but less than last month awe yoy 3.5-3.6 awe mom 0.35-0.4

Ignored

But the market is pricing in NFP at only +114k, that is quite a big deviation from your estimate.

#60,891
Jul 2, 3:23am (2 hr 3 min ago) Jul 2, 3:23am (2 hr 3 min ago)

thebigshot
Joined Mar 2025 | Status: Crack Dealer | 431 Posts

Quoting thebigshot

Disliked

nfp +258k most public sector hiring private hiring positive but less than last month awe yoy 3.5-3.6 awe mom 0.35-0.4

Ignored

price of money = demand for usd. xau/usd(usd up, gold down)

Quoting thebigshot

Disliked

{quote} inverted tip already surge up on warsh speeches. {image} inverted tip curve have different y-axis from 02 year real interest rate, but it moves in lockstep with the price of money

Ignored

skewness still tilted towards IV for puts

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but it is falling.

borrowing fees not yet exploded where folks are rush to short

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like it did in late oct and early nov 2025 at swing low.

CME positioning

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while price move 0.49% yesterday OI falls by -0.75% = short covering.
As june contract expires rollover into aug and oct, traders were forced to sell on jul 1 asia session. so squeeze mechanism get triggered.

SHFE Positioing
contract AU2608

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AUG contract are being close down as we move into JUL, but are they being rollover into OCT (to determine speculators behaviour)

Yes, here is oct contract (AU2610)

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While rollover is being made, yesterday triggered a short unwind. Price UP OI DOWN. Because traders were FORCED to sell.

Even IV for gold futures are being compressed when short unwinds yesterday. Had it been rising sharply on the unwinds, more up would be the most probable scenario.

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GVZ IV for gold ETFs GLD is being compressed.

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PRice break down from box will be violent

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Asymmetric home run trades only! If U cannt, then STFU

#60,892
Jul 2, 3:33am (1 hr 54 min ago) Jul 2, 3:33am (1 hr 54 min ago)

thebigshot
Joined Mar 2025 | Status: Crack Dealer | 431 Posts

Quoting Raicha

Disliked

{quote} Chatgbt said it means often gold will fall , hopefully , waiting for that 3900 zone -_-

Ignored

Learn to trade small and win big.
Thats how we get in asymmetric, home runs trade.
Probability and implied volatility percentile and swing cycle are all pointing towards 3150s.

But dont try to short here, i am a position trader i am already in shorts from 2 june. i want to ride my short to 3150s.

Asymmetric home run trades only! If U cannt, then STFU

#60,893
Jul 2, 3:37am (1 hr 50 min ago) Jul 2, 3:37am (1 hr 50 min ago)

HumanAI
Joined Jun 2025 | Status: Trader | 395 Posts | Online Now

At the current market price of $4,066, XAUUSD is presenting a critical retest of the broken structural floor. Because the price recently broke below $4,065 to touch $4,061, this minor bounce to $4,067 is a prime sell-on-rally (short entry) opportunity, as long as the price fails to reclaim the $4,071 level on the 15-minute chart.

Trade Smartly Guys

@HumanAI

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What We Do in Life Echoes in Eternity.

#60,894
Jul 2, 3:37am (1 hr 50 min ago) Jul 2, 3:37am (1 hr 50 min ago)

Raicha
| Joined Jun 2025 | Status: Trader | 71 Posts | Online Now

Quoting thebigshot

Disliked

{quote} Learn to trade small and win big. Thats how we get in asymmetric, home runs trade. Probability and implied volatility percentile and swing cycle are all pointing towards 3150s. But dont try to short here, i am a position trader i am already in shorts from 2 june. i want to ride my short to 3150s.

Ignored

Im not , im waiting for my buy opportunity

#60,895
Jul 2, 3:42am (1 hr 45 min ago) Jul 2, 3:42am (1 hr 45 min ago)

raregold
Joined Feb 2026 | Status: Trader | 154 Posts

Quoting thebigshot

Disliked

nfp +258k most public sector hiring private hiring positive but less than last month awe yoy 3.5-3.6 awe mom 0.35-0.4

Ignored

NFP is already being priced in and it will be weaker not hotter. Not sure WHERE you get that number from.

Take away hiring for "World Cup" which is about 40k jobs that is the normal standard.

I have read through your whole analysis and it doesn't make sense. Good luck.

The biggest lie you were told - Its not that simple

#60,896
Jul 2, 3:46am (1 hr 40 min ago) Jul 2, 3:46am (1 hr 40 min ago)

shinooos
| Joined May 2026 | Status: Trader | 1 Post | Online Now

Why the fuck would anyone trade this market today before news? Wait for the big guys to move then look for your A+ setup. Kudos

#60,897
Jul 2, 3:52am (1 hr 34 min ago) Jul 2, 3:52am (1 hr 34 min ago)

AK.47
| Joined Apr 2026 | Status: Trader | 316 Posts | Online Now

Quoting shinooos

Disliked

Why the fuck would anyone trade this market today before news? Wait for the big guys to move then look for your A+ setup. Kudos

Ignored

how we gonna have A+ quality setups after news?

#60,898
Jul 2, 3:54am (1 hr 33 min ago) Jul 2, 3:54am (1 hr 33 min ago)

thebigshot
Joined Mar 2025 | Status: Crack Dealer | 431 Posts

Quoting Raicha

Disliked

{quote} Im not , im waiting for my buy opportunity

Ignored

Had my thesis been thrown to trash by NFP,
i need price to reclaim 4280s then dip towards 3980s for me to look for buy opportunites to ride to 5200.
PRice need to validate my second scenario, that is hawkish bet by market is a mispriced move, as inflation expectation keeps falling down while the rise in real yield is purely fiscal unsustainability. This will reflect in term premia as it should rose also.

My main thesis is
Warsh wants fed bal sheet smaller.
YTD, the decomposition of fed holdings had been changing from long duration to short duration.
While long term duration are being let matured(QT-likely), FED absorbed part of short term issuance by US treasury department.
But it is insignificant in terms of absorption, most bill issuance are left for market to absorb So commercial bank are FORCED to absorbed the rest.
There were a buffer called ON RRP, where the need of funds for govt spending were taken from. However, it has been completely drained over the last 4 yrs from $2.7T to roughly $1bn now.

When commercial banks are forced to absorb those short term treasuries, bank reserve falls, while TGA rise. This drains liquidity from the system and Gold, silver and especially bitcoin acts as a liquidity barometer are the first ones to react.

Asymmetric home run trades only! If U cannt, then STFU

#60,899
Jul 2, 3:57am (1 hr 29 min ago) Jul 2, 3:57am (1 hr 29 min ago)

thebigshot
Joined Mar 2025 | Status: Crack Dealer | 431 Posts

Quoting raregold

Disliked

{quote} NFP is already being priced in and it will be weaker not hotter. Not sure WHERE you get that number from. Take away hiring for "World Cup" which is about 40k jobs that is the normal standard. I have read through your whole analysis and it doesn't make sense. Good luck.

Ignored

Priced in by who??

Asymmetric home run trades only! If U cannt, then STFU