“I read this post on a forum. I found it interesting, so I brought it here for everyone to discuss:
The author simulated 10,000 FTMO challenges using a profitable trading strategy. The strategy had a 50% win rate, a 1.5R reward for each winning trade, and a 1R loss for each losing trade. In theory, this is a positive-expectancy system.
The surprising result was that the pass rate changed dramatically depending only on position size.
When risking 0.5% per trade, the funded rate was around 93% after including realistic events such as slippage, gaps, and unexpected large losses. But when risk was increased to 2% per trade, the funded rate dropped to only about 9%. At 3% risk per trade, it fell even lower.
The strategy did not change. The edge did not change. The only thing that changed was the risk per trade.
The key lesson is that prop firm challenges do not only test whether a strategy is profitable. They test whether the account can survive short-term drawdowns within strict daily and total loss limits.
A good strategy can still fail a prop firm challenge if the position size is too large. Larger size increases account volatility and makes it much easier to hit the firm’s loss limits, even during a normal losing streak.
Before buying a prop firm challenge, traders should calculate their risk per trade based on the firm’s rules, especially the daily loss limit and total drawdown limit. For many strategies, risking less than 1% per trade may be much safer than using aggressive position sizing.
In short, having a profitable strategy is not enough. Position size can be the difference between passing and failing a prop firm challenge.
Final takeaway
Having a profitable strategy is not enough to pass a prop firm challenge.
Across 10,000 FTMO simulations, the same positive edge produced funded rates ranging from 93% all the way down to 5%, depending entirely on the amount risked per trade.
A prop firm challenge grades the path your account takes, and position size is the factor that has the strongest impact on that path.
Before paying for a challenge, work backward from the firm’s loss limits to determine your proper position size. Do not trade based on feeling.
You can simulate your own strategy using the firm’s rules in just one afternoon, completely for free, before risking the fee for a challenge.
This post is for traders who are considering taking a prop firm challenge.
This simulation method can be applied to any prop firm, any rule set, and any strategy with a clearly defined trade distribution.
Updated: June 2026.
The author simulated 10,000 FTMO challenges using a profitable trading strategy. The strategy had a 50% win rate, a 1.5R reward for each winning trade, and a 1R loss for each losing trade. In theory, this is a positive-expectancy system.
The surprising result was that the pass rate changed dramatically depending only on position size.
When risking 0.5% per trade, the funded rate was around 93% after including realistic events such as slippage, gaps, and unexpected large losses. But when risk was increased to 2% per trade, the funded rate dropped to only about 9%. At 3% risk per trade, it fell even lower.
The strategy did not change. The edge did not change. The only thing that changed was the risk per trade.
The key lesson is that prop firm challenges do not only test whether a strategy is profitable. They test whether the account can survive short-term drawdowns within strict daily and total loss limits.
A good strategy can still fail a prop firm challenge if the position size is too large. Larger size increases account volatility and makes it much easier to hit the firm’s loss limits, even during a normal losing streak.
Before buying a prop firm challenge, traders should calculate their risk per trade based on the firm’s rules, especially the daily loss limit and total drawdown limit. For many strategies, risking less than 1% per trade may be much safer than using aggressive position sizing.
In short, having a profitable strategy is not enough. Position size can be the difference between passing and failing a prop firm challenge.
Final takeaway
Having a profitable strategy is not enough to pass a prop firm challenge.
Across 10,000 FTMO simulations, the same positive edge produced funded rates ranging from 93% all the way down to 5%, depending entirely on the amount risked per trade.
A prop firm challenge grades the path your account takes, and position size is the factor that has the strongest impact on that path.
Before paying for a challenge, work backward from the firm’s loss limits to determine your proper position size. Do not trade based on feeling.
You can simulate your own strategy using the firm’s rules in just one afternoon, completely for free, before risking the fee for a challenge.
This post is for traders who are considering taking a prop firm challenge.
This simulation method can be applied to any prop firm, any rule set, and any strategy with a clearly defined trade distribution.
Updated: June 2026.
