Vibe Trading

Yeah, the furu, guru, woowoo trading industry is being exposed by mere mortals like you and me. No systematic trading strategy can go untested now. And in the most rigorous of ways. The discretionary element of trading is very powerful. Our human brains are very good at pattern recognition and pulling in many variables, but also very good at being selective. The long-established narrative of "it is a matter of screen time" is more prescient to me now than ever before. Anyone selling a A+B=C, 1+2=3 , type of course is a shill, because if you take every signal, you are very, very likely to blow up. Which explains why people strategy-hop, call trading educators a scam etc. The data doesn't lie.

I came up with a setup that feels kinda ridiculous, especially coming from someone who’s traded ICT and SMC full-time before. I’m not bringing LLMs into this at all for now. Here’s the breakdown of my criteria:

1. Close price relative to EMA20, EMA50 and EMA200
2. The alignment/relationship between the three EMAs themselves
3. MACD histogram above or below zero
4. RSI score reading
5. Correlation between H4 closing prices and the current M15 price action
6. Bollinger Bands conditions

I turned every single one of these rules into weighted scoring metrics, then ran a 5-year backtest on gold. Shockingly, the strategy stayed profitable. Stretch it out past five years, though, and it falls apart—10-year returns are barely anything. But its performance over the most recent five years is really solid.
My main point is this: my original design didn’t use weighted scoring at all. Now that I’ve rebuilt it around a weighted scoring system, the entire dynamic of how the strategy trades is totally different.