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Bitcoin trading calls

  • #1,701
  • Jun 26, 2:55am (12 hr ago) Jun 26, 2:55am (12 hr ago)
hey most likely to go down, no more going up i think
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  • #1,702
  • Jun 26, 2:57am (12 hr ago) Jun 26, 2:57am (12 hr ago)
Quoting nospace022
{quote} Honestly, I think we're back to ~61,500, but something tells me we're about to start falling again? I can't think of anything more at this point. // MaGimix, your screenshot opened my eyes now I have an idea - drop to 59,300? {image}
possible but if we don't respect 61860 then we go higher i think and with momentum.
retest 59300 is possible but go through too
i let my short run but tightened stop
I won't give up.
  • #1,703
  • Jun 26, 2:58am (12 hr ago) Jun 26, 2:58am (12 hr ago)
Quoting Toboso01
{quote} Closing at break-even as price is retracing back to my entry point. Will look for another entry.
I had to take a nap, but I’m back.
I entered long, as my Long Criteria suggested. The massive bullish candle closing above the DP was my signal, followed by a bullish candle breaking my ChoCh level. I was expecting a retest from above 61,158. Since the two small candles were unable to push lower and close below the Day Open (DP), I took that as the retest/hold I was anticipating. The optimal entry would have been on the previous candle that closed above 60,158.
This is a counter-trend trade, so the challenge now is to break 60,700 to clear the path to the next targets.
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  • #1,704
  • Jun 26, 3:02am (12 hr ago) Jun 26, 3:02am (12 hr ago)
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  • #1,705
  • Jun 26, 3:03am (12 hr ago) Jun 26, 3:03am (12 hr ago)
Quoting Toboso01
{quote} I had to take a nap, but I’m back. I entered long, as my Long Criteria suggested. The massive bullish candle closing above the DP was my signal, followed by a bullish candle breaking my ChoCh level. I was expecting a retest from above 61,158. Since the two small candles were unable to push lower and close below the Day Open (DP), I took that as the retest/hold I was anticipating. The optimal entry would have been on the previous candle that closed above 60,158. This is a counter-trend trade, so the challenge now is to break...
very possible,i like your analyse cold and unbiaised.
I won't give up.
  • #1,706
  • Jun 26, 3:05am (12 hr ago) Jun 26, 3:05am (12 hr ago)
Quoting Toboso01
{quote} I had to take a nap, but I’m back. I entered long, as my Long Criteria suggested. The massive bullish candle closing above the DP was my signal, followed by a bullish candle breaking my ChoCh level. I was expecting a retest from above 61,158. Since the two small candles were unable to push lower and close below the Day Open (DP), I took that as the retest/hold I was anticipating. The optimal entry would have been on the previous candle that closed above 60,158. This is a counter-trend trade, so the challenge now is to break...
bro how you see the chart with all of that indicators
  • #1,707
  • Jun 26, 3:07am (12 hr ago) Jun 26, 3:07am (12 hr ago)
Thank you for the session, I'm keeping my fingers crossed for you. It's a wonderful feeling to be able to share my thoughts with you, and thank you for sharing yours.
  • #1,708
  • Jun 26, 3:13am (12 hr ago) Jun 26, 3:13am (12 hr ago)
Quoting nospace022
Thank you for the session, I'm keeping my fingers crossed for you. It's a wonderful feeling to be able to share my thoughts with you, and thank you for sharing yours.
oh yes same feeling when i discover the power of this tread, and to be able to share all our tought to learn and go step further is beautiful.
I won't give up.
  • #1,709
  • Jun 26, 3:14am (12 hr ago) Jun 26, 3:14am (12 hr ago)
Hi everyone
Well done Nospace022 on the profit.
I say it jokingly every time that if you can walk away with a profit from bitcoin you have passed some trading test somewhere.
Bitcoin is an animal.

I am still bearish and so I am biased to the downside.
But I am not blind to the possibility of strong retracements.
Going into the weekend we have a breakout to the upside before NY open. What will NY bring to the table?

The whole day, so far is an inside candle (not closed yet) and there is a breakout whichever way strategy eventually attached to scenarios like this.
There is also bullish divergence on the charts.
Bullish divergences usually happen towards the end of a 5th wave of some sort and we are seeing it on the charts right now whether it is RSI or MACD.

I will also throw my EW slant into the mix.
The EW immediate conclusion for me is this:
If 62176 on this chart is taken out to the upside then it means the downmove was not motive.
And the upmove can be massive.

The general consensus right now is that price is going down.
I am wary of consensus because that is possible an 'opposite direction' indicator

If this breakout does not roar to the upside I will sell it looking for new lows - that is my plan

Hmmm
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,710
  • Jun 26, 3:23am (11 hr ago) Jun 26, 3:23am (11 hr ago)
Quoting MaGiix
{quote} very possible,i like your analyse cold and unbiaised.
Thanks MaGiix. On the daily chart, BTC is rejecting 59,000. On the 1H, the bulls have reclaimed the Day Open (DO) and Day Pivot (DP) with a large momentum candle. Bears now need to reclaim the DO to continue the downtrend. To me, that third rejection at the low, combined with the close above 60,158 to form a 'W' pattern, suggests that the bulls could shift the momentum if they manage to hold above 60,158 and clear 60,700. I am currently in a risky counter-trend trade.
  • #1,711
  • Jun 26, 3:24am (11 hr ago) Jun 26, 3:24am (11 hr ago)
I think BTC is below the retesting area, what you guys think?
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  • #1,712
  • Jun 26, 3:31am (11 hr ago) Jun 26, 3:31am (11 hr ago)
Quoting Olu
Hi everyone Well done Nospace022 on the profit. I say it jokingly every time that if you can walk away with a profit from bitcoin you have passed some trading test somewhere. Bitcoin is an animal. I am still bearish and so I am biased to the downside. But I am not blind to the possibility of strong retracements. Going into the weekend we have a breakout to the upside before NY open. What will NY bring to the table? The whole day, so far is an inside candle (not closed yet) and there is a breakout whichever way strategy eventually attached...
hello Olu
yes and moreover it sems like the curve is accelerating to the downside.
biased short too.
as you said BTC is an animal but im very animal friendly
have a question for you, of an trade who confidence is ok and all stuf like that, waht is the average % return you made, Let me explain: I felt like I was just spinning my wheels. Until now, I hadn't increased my risk—it was at 0.1%, with average gains of 0.3%–0.5%. But now that I’m increasing the risk and size as I win and cutting it in half during a losing streak, I managed to make 2% this week—something I’d never achieved before. What do you think?Does that make sense? I'm not competing; I'm just trying to figure out if I'm taking too many risks or, conversely, if I'm still being too cautious vs average.
Personally, I really liked using this system for the week, and I feel comfortable with it.
I won't give up.
  • #1,713
  • Jun 26, 3:40am (11 hr ago) Jun 26, 3:40am (11 hr ago)
Just gone short @60200 stop @60700 (500 points)
Looking for new lows.
I will close out early if price does not move as expected.
I am looking for a motive wave down.
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,714
  • Jun 26, 3:54am (11 hr ago) Jun 26, 3:54am (11 hr ago)
Quoting Toboso01
{quote} I had to take a nap, but I’m back. I entered long, as my Long Criteria suggested. The massive bullish candle closing above the DP was my signal, followed by a bullish candle breaking my ChoCh level. I was expecting a retest from above 61,158. Since the two small candles were unable to push lower and close below the Day Open (DP), I took that as the retest/hold I was anticipating. The optimal entry would have been on the previous candle that closed above 60,158. This is a counter-trend trade, so the challenge now is to break...
Closing my trade manually to protect my capital; I’ll wait for a better discount.
  • #1,715
  • Jun 26, 4:37am (10 hr ago) Jun 26, 4:37am (10 hr ago)
Quoting Olu
Just gone short @60200 stop @60700 (500 points) Looking for new lows. I will close out early if price does not move as expected. I am looking for a motive wave down. {image}
Hi Olu, I think this is a good call. I consider 60,700 my 'line in the sand.' Looking at my chart, you’re right—this could be a discount for the bears, as it’s a retest of this key level. That makes sense.
On the other hand, the area between the Daily Open (DO) and Daily Pivot (DP) acts as my compass, separating bull and bear territory; part of my strategy is based on those labels. I'll be watching the strength of the bears closely, as they need to reclaim the DO. Any sign of rejection there could activate my 'long criteria' for a break-and-retest setup (breaking the DP followed by a retest with a bullish rejection of a 30% wick). If that happens, it would validate this 'W' formation, with the DP acting as the neckline.
This will be decided by the strength of the bulls versus the bears. Right now, the bears are in control, and BTC is trading inside the momentum candle created after yesterday news. The bulls will need volume today to reclaim at least 60,700, and the bears strength to keep pushing lower and reclaim DO.
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  • #1,716
  • Jun 26, 4:40am (10 hr ago) Jun 26, 4:40am (10 hr ago)
Quoting Toboso01
{quote} Closing my trade manually to protect my capital; I’ll wait for a better discount.
Great trade management Toboso01.
Capital preservation is key.
No capital no participation.
Considering my short right now as I was expecting the down move to have seriously kicked in.
Late commencement? Wrong direction?
We would know when NY session starts
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,717
  • Jun 26, 5:00am (10 hr ago) Jun 26, 5:00am (10 hr ago)
Quoting Olu
{quote} Great trade management Toboso01. Capital preservation is key. No capital no participation. Considering my short right now as I was expecting the down move to have seriously kicked in. Late commencement? Wrong direction? We would know when NY session starts
Bears are reclaiming the DO, closing the 1H candle below it. The next 1H candle needs to defend this level by pushing lower; a sign of rejection, or closing back above the DP, will signal that the bulls are stepping in.
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  • #1,718
  • Jun 26, 6:43am (8 hr ago) Jun 26, 6:43am (8 hr ago)
Just poked my head in to have a quick look.
Price is falling away from my short entry point
Stop moved to B/E
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,719
  • Jun 26, 7:29am (7 hr ago) Jun 26, 7:29am (7 hr ago)
Guys check this out.
Overall on this 4h chart price has been stair stepping down predictably.
Price goes down and the up a certain amount then wash and rinse.
Just saw the trend line I put on the chart.
What this means for my position is this.
A breakout above 60400 (approximate downtrend line break to the upside) means we might have a more sustainable upmove on our hands.
It is also screaming out to me to protect the profits in place as we are going into NY and the weekend.
I really would love to see new lows below 58k. But I am seeing strength coming in so I would opt to close out
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,720
  • Jun 26, 7:33am (7 hr ago) Jun 26, 7:33am (7 hr ago)
Quoting Olu
Guys check this out. Overall on this 4h chart price has been stair stepping down predictably. Price goes down and the up a certain amount then wash and rinse. Just saw the trend line I put on the chart. What this means for my position is this. A breakout above 60400 (approximate downtrend line break to the upside) means we might have a more sustainable upmove on our hands. It is also screaming out to me to protect the profits in place as we are going into NY and the weekend. I really would love to see new lows below 58k. But I am seeing strength...
Yes, but on the other hand, as I understand it and read, it's also a massive expiration day, and apparently there are $1.6 billion in leveraged long positions with stops at 58,000 and just below. I don't know what to make of it.
I won't give up.
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