Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade

“Now, 2 patterns of market behavior happen on a regular basis:
1) the price breaks to new high's (or low's)
2) the price reverses from new high's (or low's)
They happen regardless of time frame.
They are phenomena that can be exploited without the fear if found out by others, that they might cease to exist.” - H. Rearden


Price Action #advancedalientrading

1) Price will either breakout of the high, low or both of the previous bar
2) Price will not breakout of the previous bar.
3) Price will either close above a level (line) or not.

===========================================================
USD/JPY 5-MINUTE MORNING ROUTINE REPORT
Date: Thursday, June 18, 2026
Time: 18:35 UTC
Pair: USDJPY
Live Price: 160.80
===========================================================
MARKET ENVIRONMENT
------------------
CURRENT BIAS: BULLISH USDJPY
The dominant theme driving USDJPY is the widening
interest-rate differential between the United States and
Japan.
The Federal Reserve remains hawkish while the Bank of
Japan's 1.00% policy rate remains far below the Fed's
3.50%-3.75% range.
This continues to support USD strength versus JPY.
===========================================================
SIGNAL #1 : RISK APPETITE
===========================================================
STATUS: MIXED TO RISK-ON
Evidence:
- U.S.-Iran agreement reduced geopolitical fears.
- Oil prices declined.
- Equity futures improved.
- However, Fed hawkishness continues to support USD.
Impact on USDJPY:
RISK-ON generally hurts JPY because the Yen is a
traditional safe-haven currency.
USDJPY SCORE:
+1 BULLISH
===========================================================
SIGNAL #2 : ECONOMIC CALENDAR
===========================================================
STATUS: USD DOMINANT
Key Driver:
Federal Reserve signaled potential future rate hikes.
Markets are now pricing the possibility of at least one
additional hike later this year.
Higher U.S. yields continue attracting capital into USD.
Impact:
BULLISH USD
BEARISH JPY
USDJPY SCORE:
+3 BULLISH
===========================================================
SIGNAL #3 : HEADLINES
===========================================================
Primary Drivers:
1. Fed maintains hawkish bias.
2. Japanese officials verbally warn about Yen weakness.
3. Intervention concerns rising near 161.00.
4. BOJ rate hike failed to materially strengthen Yen.
Market Interpretation:
The market believes yield differentials remain more
important than BOJ policy adjustments.
USDJPY SCORE:
+2 BULLISH
===========================================================
INTERVENTION RISK ANALYSIS
===========================================================
CRITICAL
Japanese officials have publicly stated they are prepared
to respond to excessive currency moves.
Recent Reuters reporting shows officials warning they can
act "at any time" as USDJPY trades near 160.80.
Historically:
160.00+
= Elevated intervention risk
161.00+
= High intervention risk
162.00+
= Extreme intervention risk
This does NOT automatically mean USDJPY will fall.
It DOES mean sudden 100-300 pip reversals become possible.
===========================================================
COMBINED SIGNAL ANALYSIS
===========================================================
Risk Appetite : +1
Economic Calendar : +3
Headlines : +2
TOTAL SCORE: +6
MARKET STATE:
STRONGLY BULLISH USDJPY
===========================================================
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
===========================================================
BULLISH SCENARIO
Conditions:
- U.S. yields continue rising
- Dollar remains strong
- No Japanese intervention
Targets:
161.00
161.50
162.00
Preferred Strategy:
BUY PULLBACKS
-----------------------------------------------------------
BEARISH SCENARIO
Conditions:
- Japanese intervention
- Unexpected BOJ action
- Sharp drop in U.S. yields
Targets:
160.00
159.50
158.50
Preferred Strategy:
SELL ONLY AFTER CONFIRMED REVERSAL
===========================================================
PROFESSIONAL TRADER CONCLUSION
===========================================================
Fundamental Trend:
BULLISH USDJPY
Yield Differential:
STRONGLY SUPPORTIVE
Fed Bias:
HAWKISH
BOJ Bias:
STILL ACCOMMODATIVE RELATIVE TO FED
Intervention Risk:
HIGH
Trade Quality:
8/10
Risk Level:
8/10
Preferred Bias:
BULLISH
Preferred Strategy:
BUY DIPS UNTIL PRICE ACTION PROVES OTHERWISE
FINAL BIAS:
USDJPY STRONGLY BULLISH
WARNING:
THE BIGGEST RISK IS NOT FED POLICY.
THE BIGGEST RISK IS A SURPRISE JAPANESE
GOVERNMENT INTERVENTION NEAR CURRENT LEVELS.
Fundamentals determine WHAT to trade.
Price action determines WHEN to trade.
===========================================================

The composite index of 10 economic indicators you are referring to is the Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI). It is designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. [1, 2]

The 10 key components that make up this index are:

 

1. Average weekly hours in manufacturing: Indicates shifts in production demand.
2. Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance: Tracks early shifts in labor market health.
3. Manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and materials: Reflects future production and consumer demand.
4. ISM Index of New Orders: Gauges manufacturing sector activity and expansion.
5. Manufacturers' new orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft: Measures business spending and investment.
6. Building permits for new private housing units: Signals future construction activity.
7. S&P 500 Index of Stock Prices: Represents investor sentiment and corporate valuations.
8. Leading Credit Index: Captures broader credit market conditions and lending availability.
9. Interest rate spread: The difference between 10-year Treasury bonds and the federal funds rate (also known as the yield curve).
10. Average consumer expectations for business conditions: Gauges overall optimism about the economy's direction. [4, 5, 6, 7, 8]

You can track the monthly updates and official data releases directly through The Conference Board.
AI responses may include mistakes.

[1] https://www.conference-board.org/top...ng-indicators/
[2] https://www.prnewswire.com/news-rele...302636726.html
[3] https://www.conference-board.org/top...ng-indicators/
[4] https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/ma...er-should-know
[5] https://www.crossriver.com/insights/...mic-indicators
[6] https://tradingeconomics.com/united-...economic-index
[7] https://grokipedia.com/page/Conferen...Economic_Index
[8] https://robinhood.com/us/en/learn/weekly-rundown/2xLXlsitd5TNMQLeDJN9hA/

Who is taking the 10 trade challenge the week of JUNE 21, 2026?

During the challenge, you are only to trade the same pair.

Beginners do not get to trade multiple pairs until they have mastered trading one single pair.

GREEN PIPS TO ALL.
Cheers!

PLEASE READ ALL OF POST #1
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Hig

“Now, 2 patterns of market behavior happen on a regular basis:
1) the price breaks to new high's (or low's)
2) the price reverses from new high's (or low's)
They happen regardless of time frame.
They are phenomena that can be exploited without the fear if found out by others, that they might cease to exist.” - H. Rearden


Price Action #advancedalientrading

1) Price will either breakout of the high, low or both of the previous bar
2) Price will not breakout of the previous bar.
3) Price will either close above a level (line) or not.

Hello, regarding to you last two posts TooSlow:

On the USD/JPY M15 chart of 22 June i have identified the following setups as valid 1, 2, 3, 5

In post #21209 why did you take setup 4? because no M15 bar opened between highest open and high of session?

In post #21210 you took setup 5 which seems valid because a bar opened below and returned back up.

So i have those questions:

1. What made setup 4 valid?
2. I know there are losses and nothing is perfect, but is there a decision help / filter for the not working setups 1, 2, 3?




Colors:
- blue line is H1 highest open
- red line is H1 lowest open
- green line is session high
- orange line is session low

session starts at 5 PM UTC-4

See post #21201.

Your chart shows lines while the range is expanding.

so if rules can be broken or bent. what was the intention to enter there?

i dont think you randomly entered at 10 am short.

or do i misunderstand?

Intention always to win.

What was the range/ATR%?

Socratic method is named after the classical Greek philosopher Socrates. It is a form of inquiry and discussion between individuals, based on asking and answering questions to stimulate critical thinking and to illuminate ideas.

“Now, 2 patterns of market behavior happen on a regular basis:
1) the price breaks to new high's (or low's)
2) the price reverses from new high's (or low's)
They happen regardless of time frame.
They are phenomena that can be exploited without the fear if found out by others, that they might cease to exist.” - H. Rearden


Price Action #advancedalientrading

1) Price will either breakout of the high, low or both of the previous bar
2) Price will not breakout of the previous bar.
3) Price will either close above a level (line) or not.

When you don't take your profit, the market takes it back.

Thanks for the information on range/ATR. I thought the ATR value stayed the same throughout the day. So there’s no explicit filter for setups 1, 2, and 3—would you have had to take three losses there before getting lucky on setup 4? I really don’t understand the entry point there. Please explain your reasoning behind it.

I checked this session aswell (24 June USD/JPY M15 UTC-4):

I found 11 setups. For this session the range/atr was below 50% so maybe not the best day as per rules.

Setup 1 worked, but it was a BE+1 as price moved up 5 pips and returned.
Setup 2 was a 7 pip loss.
Setup 3 was a 4 pip loss.
Setup 4 was a 2 pip loss.
Setup 5 was a 7 pip loss.
Setup 6 was a 2 pip loss.
Setup 7 was a 4 pip loss.
Setup 8 was a 5 pip profit.
Setup 9 was your setup in post #21216 but for me price opened where H1 opened so not very clear open between HOD and higest open, but it was a 5 pip profit if taken.
Setup 10 was a BE+1.
Setup 11 was a 2 pip loss.

So in total a loss of 18 pips for this session.


Am i wrong with my analyisis?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

GBPUSD H1 HIGH OPEN