Daily Market Analysis (06.22.2026) | zForex.com

Markets Stabilize on Peace Hopes (06.22.2026)

US–Iran talks in Switzerland faced fresh strain after reports that the Iranian delegation briefly walked out following comments from Donald Trump. The discussions, mediated by Qatar and Pakistan and involving senior officials including US Vice President JD Vance, later resumed despite reports of a temporary suspension.

Attention remained split between the negotiations and upcoming US PCE inflation data. US stock futures moved lower, while the 10-year Treasury yield climbed to around 4.48% as expectations for further Fed tightening persisted after last week's hawkish signals.

The dollar index traded near 100.8, close to its highest level since May 2025, supported by rate hike expectations and anticipation of the inflation report. Reports that both sides had agreed to continue working toward a potential deal over the next 60 days helped ease some geopolitical concerns, though uncertainty surrounding the talks remained.

 

1. The euro remained near $1.145, its lowest level since mid-March, and was on track for a weekly loss of around 1% as demand for the US dollar stayed strong.
2. The British pound rebounded above $1.32, clawing back intraday losses despite declining near a two-month trough and heading for a 1% weekly drop against the dollar.
3. The yen weakened to around 161.5 per dollar, trading close to its lowest level since 1986. Intervention warnings from Japanese officials had little impact.
4. The offshore yuan edged higher to around 6.77 per dollar, recovering part of its recent losses as sentiment improved following progress in US–Iran negotiations.
5. Gold rebounded toward $4,200 per ounce as easing oil prices reduced some inflation concerns following reports of a 60-day US–Iran peace framework.
6. Silver advanced near $66 per ounce, retracing recent drops as plunging oil prices, fueled by a prospective 60-day U.S.–Iran peace framework, redirected capital flows.
7. The Nasdaq 100 continues to consolidate after a strong rally, with the broader uptrend remaining intact. Momentum has moderated near record highs.
8. Brent crude slipped below $80 per barrel as improving US–Iran negotiations eased concerns over supply disruptions.
9. Bitcoin remains range-bound after its 2025–2026 peak, fluctuating between $60,000 and $66,000.

Technical Outlook on Charts
Euro Weakens Toward $1.145
Gold Rebounds Toward $4,200
Yen Sinks Near 1986 Lows
Sterling Recovers Above 1.3200
Silver Climbs Toward $66

Qatar is accelerating its LNG export restart, with growing signs of recovery in shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz.

On Monday, four Qatar-linked LNG carriers passed through Hormuz, marking the largest single-day movement of empty LNG vessels into the Persian Gulf since the conflict began more than three months ago.

Qatar, which supplies around 20% of global LNG, aims to restore most of its production within the next two months. However, a recent fire and explosion at the Barzan gas facility highlight the risks that could slow the country's production recovery.

Iran Signals Progress in US Talks

Iran said overnight talks with the US in Switzerland achieved meaningful progress, with both sides agreeing to form high-level committees and working groups covering nuclear issues, sanctions, and regional security.

Tehran said parts of the recent interim agreement are already taking effect, including smoother oil exports, the release of some frozen assets, and easing economic restrictions.
Washington and Tehran have also established a direct communication channel to reduce the risk of incidents in the Strait of Hormuz, where shipping activity has begun to normalize.

Lebanon remains a major challenge. Iran said a durable ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah is crucial for broader negotiations, while Israel maintains it will not leave southern Lebanon until security concerns are addressed.

Oil markets welcomed the news, with Brent crude falling toward $80 a barrel as investors became more optimistic about supply and the continued reopening of Hormuz.

Although both sides are expressing optimism, the success of the talks will depend on developments in Lebanon.

Gulf countries are investing billions to reduce their dependence on the Strait of Hormuz, making energy security a bigger priority.

The UAE is expanding its ports, pipelines, and transport networks, while Saudi Arabia is increasing its export capacity through the Red Sea. Qatar still depends heavily on the Strait of Hormuz for its LNG exports.

Dubai's property market has slowed, with residential transaction values down more than 50% since February, although home prices have remained fairly stable.

Spending on alternative export routes and key infrastructure is expected to continue even if the US and Iran reach a long-term agreement.

Interesting overview. The market reaction still looks quite cautious despite the reported progress in the talks. Lower oil prices are helping risk sentiment, but the stronger dollar and rising Treasury yields suggest that inflation and Fed expectations remain the bigger immediate drivers.
The next PCE release could therefore be important. A hotter reading may keep pressure on EUR/USD and GBP/USD, while also limiting the upside in gold even if geopolitical tensions continue to ease.
I’m also watching USD/JPY closely. With the pair near 161.5, verbal intervention may not be enough if US yields remain elevated. Do you think actual intervention becomes likely above 162, or would Japanese officials wait for a faster, more disorderly move?