Daily FX Market Review

11 June 2026, 9:05 AM London, UK
The session is built around a tight cluster of live event and flow risks rather than a clean one-way Dollar trend. EUR/USD and EUR/GBP face the ECB decision and press conference today, with markets already pricing the hike and options pointing to limited initial shock. US PPI then becomes the Dollar timing gate, especially for AUD/USD and NZD/USD where risk sentiment, Middle East escalation, and vulnerable positioning sit close to stop levels. USD/JPY is the sharpest microstructure story, pinned near 160.50 but still facing 160.72/161.00 gamma and intervention tension. GBP/USD and USD/CAD remain range-sensitive, while EUR/CHF is the cleaner cross squeeze where short retail exposure is still fighting the ECB/SNB rate differential story.
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EUR/USD — Spot: 1.1542
Technical Analysis
- The failed break around 1.1513/1.1528 keeps a bear-trap recovery alive, but spot is still capped below the June 9 high.
- 1.1578 and the 1.1594 10-day moving average are the nearest topside tests, while 1.1528 is tested support and 1.1500 is the pivot floor.
- Long upper wicks, falling monthly RSI, and bearish options skew warn that rallies still face supply.
Sell-side Research
- UniCredit says a 25bp ECB hike is priced and unlikely to give EUR/USD meaningful support, leaving the pair sluggish below 1.16.
- Bank of America prefers EUR/USD shorts through summer, citing US and eurozone growth divergence, Fed repricing risk, and Middle East uncertainty.
- SEB expects a preemptive 25bp ECB hike today, but no firm commitment beyond June.
Market Chatter
- The ECB decision is due today at 13:15 London, with the press conference at 13:45. Markets fully price a 25bp hike.
- Options show muted ECB reaction risk, with overnight implied volatility near 9.0 and a simple straddle break-even around 43 pips.
- Downside hedging dominates, with one-month risk reversals at their most bearish since April.
Strategy
Downside hedges are already visible, and the failed 1.1528 break makes fresh shorts poor value into ECB risk. The underpriced path is short-covering while 1.1528 holds, with 1.1578/1.1594 the zone to fade only if the event spike fails.
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GBP/USD — Spot: 1.3379
Technical Analysis
- Sterling needs to clear the 1.3409 technical zone and the 1.3420 200-day moving average to restore a constructive bias.
- Support sits at 1.3350/55 and 1.3300/10, while resistance is layered at 1.3420 and 1.3450/60.
- The broader 1.3300-1.3500 range remains the working map into upcoming risk events.
Sell-side Research
- Morgan Stanley expects UK monthly GDP to contract 0.2% on Friday, with balanced to mildly downside risks around the number.
Market Chatter
- Dip buyers underpinned the Asia fall, helping cable rebound from 1.33505 despite US-Iran escalation.
- US PPI today is the next Fed expectations gate, while UK GDP Friday and the BoE next week keep sterling event risk high.
- Safe-haven Dollar demand from renewed Middle East attacks pulled cable back below 1.34.
Strategy
Downside is visible, but the 1.3350 flush was reclaimed and late shorts now face squeeze risk before UK GDP. Prefer fading failed rebounds below 1.3409/1.3420, not chasing lower at spot. A hold above 1.3420 delays shorts.
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USD/JPY — Spot: 160.52
Technical Analysis
- The bull run remains intact, with the 10-day moving average supporting the move since mid-May and ranges still tight.
- 160.65 upper Bollinger and the 160.72 2026 high are clean resistance, while 160.24 and the 159.95 10-day moving average are support.
- Daily indicators are near overbought, raising profit-taking risk as 160.72 approaches.
Sell-side Research
- MUFG says a BoJ hike next week is almost fully priced and is unlikely by itself to reverse yen weakness.
Market Chatter
- Today's expiries are supportive, with USD 2.6bn at 160.00/25 and another USD 724m around 160.50/98.
- Barrier and gamma interest around 160.50-161.00 is suppressing volatility, but a 161.00 break could flip hedging into rally amplification.
- Intervention threat still caps enthusiasm, while Middle East tension and wide Japan-US rate differentials keep the pair bid.
Strategy
Do not chase 160.50. The underpriced path is a controlled topside sweep toward 160.72/161.00, then failure risk if intervention pressure returns. Acceptance means holding beyond 161.00 without quick rejection, otherwise use the rejection high as reference.
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AUD/USD — Spot: 0.6998
Technical Analysis
- Back-to-back closes below the daily cloud keep the bearish structure alive after the neckline break.
- 0.7056 cloud base and 0.7081/0.7090 moving averages are overhead, while 0.6987 and 0.6967 form the immediate support ladder.
- Below 0.7000 leaves limited support before 0.6834, while a recovery above 0.7056 would weaken the bearish break.
Sell-side Research
- No relevant data at the moment.
Market Chatter
- US PPI is due today at 13:30 London, with a hotter print likely to support the Dollar through Fed expectations.
- US-Iran escalation and softer RBA expectations keep sentiment sour, with futures pricing a near-certain RBA hold next Tuesday.
- Clustered stops near 0.6978 sit just below the 0.6987 session low, creating a nearby trigger zone.
Strategy
The bearish break is real, but the better value is not selling after the first 0.7000 flush. The underpriced path is long-liquidation only if PPI or risk-off drives acceptance below 0.6987/0.6978, with rebounds under 0.7056 preferred for fresh shorts.
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USD/CAD — Spot: 1.3964
Technical Analysis
- Price action is choppy above Tuesday's low, with the June 9 high at 1.3968 acting as the key near-term cap.
- 1.4000 is the next psychological resistance, while 1.3920, 1.3897 and the 1.3882 200-hour average are support references.
- The 21-day moving average has crossed above the 200-day average, but sticky trade argues against blind topside chase.
Sell-side Research
- Credit Agricole sees USD/CAD stabilising in the upper end of its 1.35/1.40 range into summer after rate differentials explained much of the rally.
Market Chatter
- Retail traders remain heavily short, with the short share rising, which keeps squeeze risk alive near 1.3970/1.4000.
- Stop-liquidity is clustered near 1.3970, just above current spot.
- Higher oil is a CAD-supportive counterweight, but the pair is still pressing the top of the recent range.
Strategy
The underpriced path remains an upside squeeze, not a clean CAD rebound, because retail shorts sit just above the 1.3970 liquidity pocket. Participate only if the pair holds above 1.3968/1.3970, otherwise the 1.35/1.40 range cap still matters.
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EUR/GBP — Spot: 0.8627
Technical Analysis
- The cross remains soft below major moving averages and below the cloud, but momentum is weak rather than oversold.
- 0.8644 and 0.8654 are first resistance, while 0.8612 2026 low and 0.8604 lower Bollinger are the downside decision levels.
- Today's brief dip toward the 0.8619 area has not produced downside acceptance.
Sell-side Research
- SEB expects the ECB to hike 25bp today but avoid pre-commitment beyond June.
- Morgan Stanley expects UK GDP to contract 0.2% m/m on Friday, with mildly downside risks.
Market Chatter
- ECB risk today and UK GDP tomorrow put both legs inside high-impact event windows.
- The cross has been eyeing two-week lows around 0.8620 after a narrow range.
Strategy
Lower-range continuation is visible, but the better asymmetry is still a bear trap into ECB risk while 0.8612/0.8604 remains unbroken. Prefer range discipline and squeeze risk above that floor, with bearish conviction only after a held retest from underneath.
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NZD/USD — Spot: 0.5789
Technical Analysis
- The kiwi is pressing the lower hourly Bollinger area after falling from 0.5832, which may slow immediate progress lower.
- Today's 0.5786-0.5808 range leaves spot near the low, with 0.5680 the next major downside marker and 0.5990/95 distant resistance.
- A break below 0.5680 would invigorate bears, but it is not the immediate session battlefield.
Sell-side Research
- No relevant data at the moment.
Market Chatter
- US-Iran escalation is weighing on pro-risk FX, while US PPI today is the next Dollar timing gate.
- Retail exposure is heavily long, increasing local liquidation risk if 0.5770 stop-liquidity gives way.
- Recent NZ trade has been pressured by the same risk-off tone hitting AUD, but spot is already close to today's low.
Strategy
The downside has already paid below 0.5800, but retail longs still make 0.5770 the pain point. The underpriced path is not a fresh short at market, it is continuation only if that stop pocket breaks and holds.
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EUR/CHF — Spot: 0.9228
Technical Analysis
- The cross printed 0.9229, its highest level since April 30, with 0.9240 the next visible prior high.
- ECB/SNB rate expectations support the rise, while today's 0.9211 low is the near-term pullback reference.
- Spot is near the top of the recent range, so upside needs acceptance rather than another high chase.
Sell-side Research
- SEB expects an ECB hike today, which keeps rate-differential focus alive but without a firm forward commitment.
- UniCredit warns that the ECB hike is priced, a reminder not to chase euro strength indiscriminately after the decision.
Market Chatter
- Retail traders remain heavily short EUR/CHF and short exposure rose, keeping squeeze risk alive near recent highs.
- The Swiss population cap referendum on Sunday is negative event risk for the franc.
Strategy
The squeeze has done work, but retail shorts mean the underpriced path is still pullback-supported upside while 0.9211 holds. Do not chase 0.9233/0.9240 blindly, use a dip hold as confirmation that shorts remain trapped.
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Market Summary
EUR/USD — 1.1542 — Trap watch
- Market consensus: ECB hike priced, downside hedges heavy, but the 1.1528 break has failed.
- Recommendation: Respect short-covering above 1.1528. Fade only a failed 1.1578/1.1594 event spike.
GBP/USD — 1.3379 — Trap watch
- Market consensus: Cable remains range-bound, with Dollar safe-haven demand offset by dip buying.
- Recommendation: Avoid chasing below 1.3350. Fade failed rebounds while 1.3409/1.3420 caps.
USD/JPY — 160.52 — No fresh chase
- Market consensus: The pair is bid, but gamma and intervention threat crowd the 160.72/161.00 zone.
- Recommendation: Let any 160.72/161.00 sweep prove acceptance. Fade rejection rather than chase 160.50.
AUD/USD — 0.6998 — Short below 0.6987
- Market consensus: Bearish structure is clear, with PPI and risk-off pressure near the 0.7000 battlefield.
- Recommendation: Prefer shorts only after 0.6987/0.6978 acceptance, or on failed rebounds below 0.7056.
USD/CAD — 1.3964 — Long above 1.3970
- Market consensus: Upper-range stability remains intact, with retail shorts vulnerable near 1.3970.
- Recommendation: Join only a held 1.3968/1.3970 break. Otherwise respect the 1.35/1.40 range cap.
EUR/GBP — 0.8627 — Range trading
- Market consensus: The cross is soft, but ECB and UK GDP risk make lower-range breaks suspect.
- Recommendation: Treat 0.8612/0.8604 dips as trap risk unless a break retests from underneath.
NZD/USD — 0.5789 — Short below 0.5770
- Market consensus: Risk-off pressure is heavy, but the pair is already near today's low.
- Recommendation: Do not sell at market. Follow only if 0.5770 stop-liquidity breaks and holds.
EUR/CHF — 0.9228 — Constructive
- Market consensus: ECB/SNB rate spread supports the cross, while retail shorts keep squeeze risk alive.
- Recommendation: Prefer pullback-supported upside above 0.9211. Avoid chasing 0.9233/0.9240 blindly.
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Risk note
This market review is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Margin trading is speculative and may not be suitable for all investors.

15 June 2026, 9:05 AM London, UK
The latest snapshot is dominated by broad Dollar weakness after the US-Iran preliminary peace deal pushed oil lower, revived risk appetite, and squeezed recent defensive USD demand. The cleanest near-term battlefield is not a single macro forecast, but the interaction between spot recovery and very large option expiries into today's 10am NY cut. EUR/USD is testing whether the earlier downside break has become a bear trap, while AUD/USD sits almost exactly on a large 0.7075/85 expiry cluster ahead of tomorrow's RBA decision. USD/JPY is more about underpriced BoJ and intervention-zone volatility than outright spot chase. Sterling, USD/CAD, EUR/GBP and EUR/CHF all show the same tactical lesson: respect the Dollar-relief move, but avoid paying up where event risk or option gravity can still distort the next few hours.
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EUR/USD — Spot: 1.1608
Technical Analysis
- The pair has moved from early-June downside pressure into range trading, but the failed breaks below 1.1513 keep bear-trap risk alive.
- Support is now clustered around the 1.1604 21-day average, while 1.1630/33 combines the daily cloud base and 38.2% Fibonacci resistance.
- A daily close through 1.1633 would expose the 29 May 1.1686 peak, while rejection below the upper band keeps consolidation intact.
Sell-side Research
- ING still sees a cyclically bullish Dollar story capping EUR/USD, with the pair struggling to sustain much above the 1.16/17 area into year-end.
- Bank of America prefers EUR/USD shorts through summer, but separately flags that a dovish Fed surprise is the pain trade for existing USD longs.
- HSBC sees the euro stable only while global conditions stay cooperative, with energy and growth risks leaving the foundations fragile.
Market Chatter
- Today's 10am NY cut has a large nearby EUR/USD cluster around 1.1600, 1.1625/30, 1.1635/45 and 1.1575/80.
- EUR/USD downside option risk premiums have been crushed, with EUR put hedges sold after the peace-deal relief rally.
- Stop-liquidity above 1.1625 makes the upper expiry zone a potential squeeze point if spot holds above 1.1600.
Strategy
The market paid for downside last week and failed to hold it. Respect option gravity around 1.1600/25 into the cut, then favour topside release while 1.1604 holds, with 1.1630/33 the acceptance test rather than a blind chase.
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GBP/USD — Spot: 1.3433
Technical Analysis
- The earlier long upper shadows damaged sterling's structure, but spot has reclaimed the 1.3409/18 support band.
- The 200-day average and nearby technical floor sit around 1.3418/09, while 1.3469/72 combines the 100-day and 50-day averages.
- The 1.3460 intraday high has already tested the upper range, so follow-through needs a hold above the moving-average cap.
Sell-side Research
- Bank of America says UK political and fiscal uncertainty can weigh on growth, and sees volatility as the prudent vehicle for political concerns.
- Danske expects the BoE to remain sidelined, arguing weak UK growth and its dovish BoE stance weigh on the GBP call.
Market Chatter
- Cable reached 1.3460 in Asia as the peace deal weakened safe-haven Dollar demand.
- CFTC data showed net GBP shorts rising 22% to 64,213 contracts in the week to 9 June, adding short-covering fuel if resistance breaks.
- Clustered stops around 1.3460 make today's high a live liquidity point, not just a chart level.
Strategy
The previous failed-strength short has been rejected by today's reclaim. The underpriced path is short-covering while 1.3418/09 holds, but fresh longs should wait for pullbacks or a held break above 1.3460 rather than chase the spike.
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USD/JPY — Spot: 160.09
Technical Analysis
- Spot is still orbiting the 160 handle after failing to extend Thursday's topside push.
- Support has been repeatedly seen around 159.75/51, while 160.50/72 remains the nearby intervention-sensitive rejection zone.
- Holding above 160 confirms buyers remain present, but the path higher is uneven while policy and option barriers crowd the topside.
Sell-side Research
- HSBC says short JPY futures and options positioning is stretched near prior intervention episodes, and expects MoF intervention risk to cap USD/JPY.
- JP Morgan expects a BoJ hike tomorrow, but says the bar for the meeting to read hawkish is high because tightening is already priced.
- Bank of America notes overnight USD/JPY option pricing is far below its long-term BoJ-meeting median, pointing to underpriced event risk.
Market Chatter
- Today's 10am NY cut includes USD/JPY interest around 159.90/160.00, close enough to contain spot before the cut.
- JPY implied volatility is weighed by topside long gamma from 161/162 barriers and triggers.
- IMM and CTA JPY shorts are described as large, leaving the market sensitive to intervention-style pressure if topside tests fail.
Strategy
The underpriced trade is volatility, not chasing spot. Let 160.00 option gravity work into the cut, then treat 160.50/72 as a trap zone unless price holds above it and retests from above before tomorrow's BoJ.
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USD/CAD — Spot: 1.3975
Technical Analysis
- The bull trend is intact but Thursday's long upper shadow and today's failure below 1.3990 warn against blind topside chase.
- Immediate resistance is the 1.3995 daily high, with 1.4024/37 combining the 2026 high and 30-week upper Bollinger zone.
- Support around 1.3946/36 held early today, while 1.3912 is the minimum correction of the 1.3550/1.4024 rally.
Sell-side Research
- Credit Agricole keeps USD/CAD near current levels into H2, but forecasts a year-end move toward 1.35.
- Bank of America stays bullish USD versus CAD into the FOMC, while recognizing two-way risk and a dovish Fed pain trade.
Market Chatter
- Retail traders remain heavily short the pair, which keeps local squeeze risk alive if 1.3995 gives way.
- CAD futures positioning has moved sharply against CAD in recent weeks, but the weekly data is a backdrop rather than an intraday trigger.
Strategy
Retail shorts can still force a squeeze, but the 1.40 story has already failed once and broad Dollar weakness is active. Prefer fading failed rebounds below 1.3995, while a hold above 1.40 would turn the setup back into squeeze management.
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AUD/USD — Spot: 0.7072
Technical Analysis
- The Aussie has climbed back into its daily cloud and above the 10-day average, shifting near-term risk toward the topside.
- The rally stalled at 0.7084/90, the 100-day average and nearby stop zone, while 0.7055 is the support needed to keep upside pressure alive.
- A close back below 0.7055 would put the downside back in focus, while 0.7133 and 0.7144 are higher stretch levels.
Sell-side Research
- No relevant data at the moment.
Market Chatter
- Tomorrow's RBA decision is the key AUD event risk, with no change to 4.35% expected.
- Today's 10am NY cut has AUD/USD expiries around 0.7075/85 worth about USD 1.6bn, plus 0.7050/55 near USD 940mn.
- CFTC data showed the net AUD long more than halved to its smallest since January after reaching a 13-year high in May.
Strategy
The obvious risk-on bounce is now sitting on option gravity and pre-RBA event risk. Respect the 0.7075/85 pin into the cut, then favour topside only if 0.7090 holds, otherwise use options rather than spot into tomorrow.
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EUR/GBP — Spot: 0.8642
Technical Analysis
- The broader trend remains soft below major averages, but the bear run is beginning to look tired above 0.8615/20.
- The 0.8637 10-day average is now nearby support, while 0.8663 is the refreshed daily cloud-base resistance.
- Failure below 0.8617 would reopen the lower Bollinger area, but current price action favours corrective rebound risk.
Sell-side Research
- Bank of America remains short EUR/GBP, but says long vega is prudent as UK political risk rises into this week's events.
- Danske expects EUR/GBP to move toward 0.89 over 6 to 12 months, citing weak UK growth and a dovish BoE stance versus market pricing.
Market Chatter
- Today's expiries include EUR/GBP at 0.8615 and 0.8635, keeping the lower range relevant before the 10am NY cut.
- Stop-liquidity below 0.8605 makes a downside sweep vulnerable to bear-trap dynamics unless it holds after the break.
- BoE and UK political risk later this week keep sterling-specific conviction capped.
Strategy
The short EUR/GBP story is visible, but repeated failure to break the lower range leaves late sellers exposed. Prefer corrective upside while 0.8637 holds, with 0.8663 the first profit-taking and acceptance test.
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EUR/CHF — Spot: 0.9207
Technical Analysis
- The cross is holding the 0.92 handle, but today's 0.9204/0.9227 range shows a tight post-rally battlefield.
- Near-term resistance is the 0.9227/0.9235 recent-high area, while 0.9200 remains the key handle and option-supported floor.
- A move above 0.9245 would target clustered stops, but failure there would look more like a topside cleanup than fresh trend confirmation.
Sell-side Research
- Goldman Sachs expects the SNB to remain comfortably on hold at 0.0% this week, with risks tilted slightly toward hikes if pass-through strengthens.
- Goldman Sachs also flags EUR crosses as short candidates, with EUR/CHF described as a valid G10 expression.
Market Chatter
- Today's 10am NY cut includes EUR/CHF 0.9190/0.9200 expiries worth about USD 1.5bn, directly around spot.
- The SNB meeting on Thursday is the next high-impact CHF policy gate.
- Stop-liquidity above 0.9245 creates a possible topside sweep zone if the 0.92 pin releases higher.
Strategy
The clean EUR/CHF short is not ready while 0.9200 option gravity holds. Respect the pin into the cut, then use 0.9235/45 as a stop-run and rejection zone rather than chasing fresh longs before the SNB.
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Other Pairs
Technical Analysis
- NZD/USD stalled near 0.5864/65 after the peace-deal jump, with 0.5825/30 now the nearer downside option area.
- JPY crosses remain bid, with EUR/JPY above 185.50 and GBP/JPY pressing the 215 area, while AUD/JPY has cleared its daily support zone.
Sell-side Research
- JP Morgan's BoJ view keeps JPY-cross conviction event-sensitive because tomorrow's hike is likely, but hawkish surprise risk has a high bar.
Market Chatter
- NZD/USD has today's expiries at 0.5825/30 and 0.5850, close enough to slow immediate follow-through.
- AUD/JPY has stop-liquidity above 113.50, while GBP/JPY is watching the 215.61 June high and 216.59 April reference.
- Retail exposure in AUD/NZD remains heavily short, keeping squeeze risk alive if the cross holds above 1.2075/1.2080.
Strategy
Secondary risk-on FX is bid, but the cleaner expression is selective. Prefer NZD/USD range discipline around the cut, and treat JPY-cross strength as squeeze-prone until tomorrow's BoJ risk forces cleaner acceptance or reversal.
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Market Summary
EUR/USD — 1.1608 — Post-cut upside
- Market consensus: Sell-side remains structurally Dollar-friendly, but options and price action now support short-covering risk.
- Recommendation: Respect the 1.1600/25 pin, then favour upside release while 1.1604 holds.
GBP/USD — 1.3433 — Squeeze risk
- Market consensus: UK risks cap sterling, but futures shorts and today's reclaim keep squeeze risk live.
- Recommendation: Prefer pullback-supported upside above 1.3418/09, not a late chase into 1.3460.
USD/JPY — 160.09 — Options preferred
- Market consensus: USD/JPY is supported near 160, but BoJ, intervention risk and options cap conviction.
- Recommendation: Use optionality around BoJ risk. Treat 160.50/72 as a trap zone unless it holds.
USD/CAD — 1.3975 — Trap watch
- Market consensus: USD/CAD has squeeze fuel from retail shorts, but 1.40 rejection weakens fresh chase.
- Recommendation: Fade failed rebounds below 1.3995, while a hold above 1.40 revives squeeze risk.
AUD/USD — 0.7072 — Wait for event
- Market consensus: Risk-on USD weakness supports AUD, but RBA and large expiries dominate timing.
- Recommendation: Respect the 0.7075/85 pin, then follow upside only if 0.7090 holds.
EUR/GBP — 0.8642 — Rebound risk
- Market consensus: Sell-side views conflict, but lower-range failure leaves late EUR/GBP shorts exposed.
- Recommendation: Prefer corrective upside above 0.8637, with 0.8663 the first acceptance test.
EUR/CHF — 0.9207 — Range trading
- Market consensus: EUR/CHF shorts remain a sell-side theme, but the 0.9200 option pin controls timing.
- Recommendation: Do not chase through 0.9200. Use 0.9235/45 as stop-run and rejection risk.
OTHERS
- Market consensus: NZD and JPY crosses benefit from risk relief, but option and BoJ timing matter.
- Recommendation: Stay selective. Respect cut-driven NZD ranges and avoid chasing JPY crosses before BoJ.
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Risk note
This market review is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Margin trading is speculative and may not be suitable for all investors.

16 June 2026, 9:06 AM London, UK
As London opens, the session is being shaped by post-RBA and post-BOJ price action rather than a clean broad-Dollar trend. AUD/USD is the clearest near-term battlefield, sitting close to today's 0.7060/65 New York cut expiries after the RBA held rates but kept hawkish language alive. USD/JPY remains elevated around 160.25 after the BOJ hike was shrugged off, yet intervention risk, 160.50/161.00 option resistance and the pending press conference argue against a lazy topside chase. EUR/USD is pinned below the 1.1600 area with large post-Fed option resistance overhead, while GBP/USD, EUR/GBP and EUR/CHF are event-gated by UK CPI, BoE and SNB risk later this week. The best tactical posture is selective. Respect timed option mechanics, avoid stale risk-on chasing, and focus on where late buyers or sellers are trapped.
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AUD/USD — Spot: 0.7060
Technical Analysis
- The 10-day average has crossed below the 100-day average, and spot is back below the 100-day average, keeping the chart tone defensive.
- 0.7088 is now the rejected June 15 high, while 0.7042 has been tested today and 0.7036 is the next clean closing-basis support from Monday.
- A daily close below 0.7036 would strengthen the bearish channel signal. Holding the 0.7055 area keeps the pair in a choppy post-RBA range.
Sell-side Research
- ANZ expected the RBA to hold and saw scope for an intraday AUD/USD rally if hawkish communication continued.
- Morgan Stanley expected the RBA to leave rates unchanged at 4.35%, with guidance still likely to lean hawkish as inflation pressures broaden.
Market Chatter
- Today's largest AUD/USD expiries are reported around 0.7060/65, leaving spot inside the active strike zone into the New York cut.
- The RBA held rates, warned hikes might not be over, yet the pair still dipped to 0.70425 before stabilising.
- China retail sales and urban investment disappointed, adding a regional drag to the Aussie after the policy event.
- Clustered stops sit near 0.7040 and 0.7088, making both edges vulnerable to sweep-and-reject price action.
Strategy
The underpriced path is not chasing post-RBA downside while option gravity holds near 0.7060/65. Respect the pin first, then favour downside only if 0.7040/36 breaks and holds after the cut, with 0.7088 the no-short boundary.
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USD/JPY — Spot: 160.25
Technical Analysis
- The same-day technical read describes disappointing price action inside a shallow bull trend.
- Today's 160.05/37 range shows 160.02/05 has already been tested as thin intraday support, while 160.50/161.00 remains the nearby topside battlefield.
- 160.59 from last week and the 161 handle are the immediate acceptance tests, with 162.00 and 165.00 only larger barrier context.
Sell-side Research
- MUFG argued a 25 bp BOJ hike was fully priced and unlikely by itself to reverse yen weakness.
- Goldman Sachs saw only limited yen support from gradual BOJ tightening, with broader macro and US outlook still keeping JPY on the back foot.
- HSBC flagged stretched short-JPY futures and options positioning and warned Japan may soon intervene again.
Market Chatter
- The BOJ hike was shrugged off, keeping dollar-yen elevated while the press conference and intervention watch remain live.
- Market talk points to option resistance around 160.50/161.00 today, with larger barriers at 162.00 and 165.00.
- Downside expiries from the 159 handle are said to be supportive, while Tokyo-fix importer demand remains a recurring bid source.
- Stop-liquidity is clustered near 160.55 above spot and 159.75 below, creating a clear trap zone around the next move.
Strategy
The obvious long is vulnerable because intervention fear and option resistance sit directly above spot. The better tactic is volatility or a failed-sweep fade around 160.50/161.00, unless price holds above that zone and retests it from above.
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EUR/USD — Spot: 1.1596
Technical Analysis
- Monday's rally squeezed shorts but faded from 1.1622, leaving spot back below the 1.1600 area in early London.
- Near resistance is the 1.1599 intraday technical zone, then the 1.1630/33 cloud-base and Fibonacci cluster. 1.1562 is the nearest refreshed intraday support.
- Daily momentum improved, but a close inside 1.1630 is still needed to neutralise the May-June bear trend.
Sell-side Research
- ING keeps a mildly bearish one-month EUR/USD view and says dollar demand could push the pair toward 1.13/14 in July.
- Bank of America sees two-way USD risk into the FOMC, with a hawkish surprise more likely but dovish delivery the pain trade.
- ANZ expects a hawkish FOMC tone, but sees limited scope for markets to price materially more tightening after recent data.
Market Chatter
- Large strikes around 1.1600 run through the Fed window, which may keep price action contained before the decision.
- A reported 9bn option cluster at 1.1640/55 expires at Thursday's New York cut, setting a clear near-term headwind above spot.
- Option markets have sold EUR downside hedges, but the pair has returned to a familiar consolidation range.
- Clustered stops near 1.1608 and 1.1563 define the immediate squeeze-versus-breakdown battlefield.
Strategy
The post-cut upside idea has failed to hold 1.1600, but downside is not clean before the Fed window. The underpriced trade is a trap response: respect EUR/USD short-squeeze risk if 1.1608 is reclaimed, otherwise wait for 1.1563 to hold below.
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GBP/USD — Spot: 1.3415
Technical Analysis
- Sterling failed to sustain Monday's rally to 1.3460 and is now testing the 200-day average area around 1.3418.
- The 1.3409/18 technical band is the live pivot, while 1.3391 has already held today. Overhead resistance starts around 1.3464 and 1.3487.
- The false-break risk remains high because yesterday's upper shadow left bulls unable to convert the range-top push.
Sell-side Research
- Bank of America says UK political uncertainty can weigh on growth and prefers using volatility to express political concerns.
- Danske expects the BoE to remain sidelined and sees a relatively weak UK growth outlook weighing on its GBP call.
- Bank of America sees two-way USD risk into FOMC, with the dollar vulnerable if the Fed does not validate hawkish pricing.
Market Chatter
- Cable traded a tight 1.3391-1.3423 range by the London morning, hugging the 1.34 area before the Fed meeting begins.
- UK CPI is due tomorrow at 7:00 London, with BoE, labour and retail sales risk also clustered this week.
- Monday's Middle East relief bid faded near the top of the recent 1.33-1.35 range.
- Stop-liquidity near 1.3380 sits below today's low and may attract a flush if the 1.3409 area gives way.
Strategy
The failed 1.3418 reclaim warns that late cable buyers are exposed, but tomorrow's UK CPI limits aggression. Prefer fading failed rebounds below 1.3418, while a clean hold above 1.3423 shifts the setup back to squeeze management.
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USD/CAD — Spot: 1.4008
Technical Analysis
- The pair has reclaimed 1.40 after Monday's lower tail, keeping the bull trend alive despite overbought daily momentum.
- 1.4023/24 combines the upper weekly volatility band with the 2026 high. Support is better mapped at 1.3955/49 from the 10-day and 200-hour averages.
- Long candle shadows warn that the upper range is unstable, but stronger rejection is still needed before the short side improves.
Sell-side Research
- Credit Agricole forecasts USD/CAD around current levels into H2 2026 and near 1.35 by year-end.
- Bank of America remains bullish USD versus CAD into the FOMC, while recognising two-way risk from the meeting.
Market Chatter
- Lower oil after the Middle East relief move has tempered CAD support despite broader risk appetite.
- Recent long lower tails suggest an underlying USD bid has been difficult to fade.
- Retail traders remain heavily short USD/CAD, which can keep squeeze pressure alive while 1.40 holds.
Strategy
The previous 1.40 downside break has turned into a bear trap. The underpriced path is a final squeeze toward 1.4023/24 while 1.40 holds, but do not chase if that high rejects again during the FOMC risk window.
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EUR/GBP — Spot: 0.8644
Technical Analysis
- The cross is fighting the bear trend after a long lower shadow, with Monday's rebound warning of a possible direction change.
- 0.8652 has already capped the latest bounce, while 0.8662 and 0.8673 are refreshed resistance levels. The lower volatility boundary sits near 0.8618.
- A close above the June 4 high at 0.8656 would strengthen the reversal signal.
Sell-side Research
- Bank of America remains short EUR/GBP but sees long volatility as prudent around UK political and BoE risk.
- Danske expects the BoE to stay sidelined and forecasts EUR/GBP moving higher toward 0.89 over a 6-12 month horizon.
Market Chatter
- UK CPI is due tomorrow, with the BoE decision and Makerfield by-election risk following on Thursday.
- Monday's headwind around 0.8650 shows sellers still defending the upper end of the short-term range.
- Stop-liquidity below 0.8605 is distant for the morning, making an immediate downside chase less attractive.
Strategy
The repeated failure to hold below 0.8637 leaves late EUR/GBP sellers exposed, but UK CPI is close enough to cap conviction. Prefer corrective upside while 0.8628 holds, using 0.8662/73 as the acceptance and profit-taking zone.
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EUR/CHF — Spot: 0.9219
Technical Analysis
- EUR/CHF again rejected the 200-day average area near 0.9230, keeping the broader 0.90-0.92 range-top debate alive.
- Today's rebound from 0.9195 has reclaimed the 0.9200 area, but 0.9228/30 remains the nearby stop-run and rejection zone.
Sell-side Research
- Goldman Sachs expects the SNB to remain comfortably on hold at 0.0% this week, with risks tilted slightly toward hikes if inflation pass-through strengthens.
Market Chatter
- SNB event risk is due Thursday, and recent official comments highlighted increased willingness to intervene in FX.
- CHF has remained a relative outperformer despite the US-Iran agreement, showing it is not trading purely as a risk-off proxy.
- Clustered stops just above 0.9228 could pull the cross into a sweep before any cleaner range rejection appears.
Strategy
The underpriced path is a stop-run into 0.9228/30 rather than a clean upside breakout. Fade only if that sweep fails, while a hold above 0.9230 would delay the range-top rejection before Thursday's SNB risk.
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Market Summary
AUD/USD — 0.7060 — Pin first
- Market consensus: Post-RBA price action is soft, but today's 0.7060/65 expiry zone can slow follow-through.
- Recommendation: Respect the expiry pin, then follow downside only if 0.7040/36 holds below.
USD/JPY — 160.25 — Trap watch
- Market consensus: BOJ hike was priced, USD/JPY stays elevated, but intervention and option resistance cap chase value.
- Recommendation: Use volatility or fade a failed 160.50/161.00 sweep unless retests hold above.
EUR/USD — 1.1596 — Trap watch
- Market consensus: EUR/USD remains range-bound, with Fed risk and large post-Fed option caps overhead.
- Recommendation: Avoid midpoint chasing. Respect squeeze above 1.1608 or wait for 1.1563 acceptance.
GBP/USD — 1.3415 — Sell failed strength
- Market consensus: Sterling's relief rally faded, while UK CPI and BoE risk keep positioning cautious.
- Recommendation: Fade failed rebounds below 1.3418, but reduce aggression before UK CPI.
USD/CAD — 1.4008 — Squeeze risk
- Market consensus: Oil weakness, USD bid tone and one-sided retail shorts keep upside squeeze risk alive.
- Recommendation: Stay with squeeze pressure above 1.40, reassess into 1.4023/24 rejection risk.
EUR/GBP — 0.8644 — Rebound risk
- Market consensus: Sell-side views are split, but UK event risk leaves late EUR/GBP shorts exposed.
- Recommendation: Prefer corrective upside while 0.8628 holds, with 0.8662/73 the first test.
EUR/CHF — 0.9219 — Stop-run watch
- Market consensus: SNB risk and repeated rejection near 0.9230 keep the cross range-sensitive.
- Recommendation: Let 0.9228/30 sweep first, then fade only if the break fails.
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Risk note
This market review is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Margin trading is speculative and may not be suitable for all investors.

17 June 2026, 9:05 AM London, UK
As London opens, the session is less about yesterday's peace and central-bank headlines and more about event discipline into tonight's FOMC. GBP/USD is digesting a softer-than-expected UK CPI print before tomorrow's BoE, while EUR/USD holds a tight post-squeeze range near 1.1600. The clearest live battlefield is USD/JPY, where the yen failed to respond to the BoJ hike and intervention risk now sits uncomfortably close to 160.50/160.72. AUD/USD and USD/CAD both show post-trigger rejection rather than clean continuation, which argues against chasing the first move. EUR/GBP and EUR/CHF add tomorrow's BoE and SNB risk, while NZD/USD has local GDP risk tonight. The tactical message is simple: respect the calendar, trade the nearby traps, and avoid paying for stories already priced.
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EUR/USD — Spot: 1.1606
Technical Analysis
- The pair is developing a more constructive daily structure after dips were bought and price held above the 21-DMA area.
- Spot has already probed the 1.1600/1.1620 band. The next technical tests are the 1.1630 daily cloud base and the 1.1646/62 weekly cloud top and 55-DMA area.
- Intraday support is clustered around 1.1590/85, with 1.1575 now a prior flush and reclaim reference rather than a fresh downside target.
Sell-side Research
- Credit Agricole remains bearish EUR/USD and still sees rallies as saleable, though it raised its Q3 target to 1.14 from 1.12 as lower energy risk trims downside.
Market Chatter
- Large reported 1.1640/55 option interest expires Thursday, but tonight's FOMC risk is the stronger driver while spot sits below that zone.
- FX option implied volatility is sitting near 2026 lows, while risk reversals show fading demand for downside hedges.
- Clustered stops above 1.1620 make the first topside sweep a tactical trap or acceptance test into the Fed window.
Strategy
The market has already tested the 1.1608 squeeze and stalled. The underpriced path is a Fed-driven trap response: respect upside only if 1.1630 holds after a break, otherwise wait for a dip into 1.1590/1.1575 to fail before buying the rebound.
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GBP/USD — Spot: 1.3418
Technical Analysis
- Cable remains choppy around the flat 200-DMA, which is being tested rather than cleanly confirmed as support.
- The 1.3438/44 area capped the latest rebound. Support is tactical around 1.3408, then clustered stops sit near 1.3378.
- Daily momentum is neutral, leaving the pair highly sensitive to whether post-CPI selling accepts below the 200-DMA area.
Sell-side Research
- UBS expected a hawkish Fed tone and no easing this year, a broad-Dollar risk that matters directly for cable before tonight's decision.
Market Chatter
- UK CPI unexpectedly held at 2.8% versus a 3.0% forecast, giving BoE doves a near-term argument before Thursday's meeting.
- Short-date option volatility is supported by Fed, BoE, labour-market and UK political risks even though broader GBP volatility is compressed.
- The Makerfield by-election and leadership speculation remain a sterling cap if fiscal credibility concerns resurface.
Strategy
The post-CPI rebound above 1.3423 has already failed, leaving late cable buyers exposed. Prefer selling failed strength below 1.3438/44, while a sustained hold back above that band would shift the setup from liquidation to squeeze management.
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USD/JPY — Spot: 160.17
Technical Analysis
- The shallow bull trend remains intact, but price action is disappointing and momentum is only marginally positive.
- 160.50/72 is the active topside trap zone, combining recent highs and the 2026 peak. Clean extension would expose the 161.00 handle.
- The 21-day average near 159.79 is the first refreshed daily support, while 161.55 is the upper volatility boundary.
Sell-side Research
- No relevant data at the moment.
Market Chatter
- The BoJ hike failed to lift the yen, keeping intervention watch live while spot trades close to the 160.50 area.
- Stops are discussed above 160.59, 160.72 and 161.00, with larger knockout structures said to sit at 162.00 and 165.00.
- Importer demand and foreign hedging of Japanese equity purchases remain yen-negative, while today's 160.25 expiry may slow early follow-through.
Strategy
The obvious long is still tempting, but the underpriced path is a failed sweep through 160.50/72 before any cleaner yen rebound. Use volatility or fade rejected strength, while a held retest above 160.72 turns the trap into real acceptance.
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AUD/USD — Spot: 0.7063
Technical Analysis
- Price remains contained, with the 100-DMA near 0.7085 capping and the daily cloud base helping limit downside.
- Intraday support sits around 0.7050/49, with 0.7026 as the next pivot support. Resistance starts at the 0.7072 session edge and 0.7085.
- Neutral indicators fit the sideways range, while a break below 0.6979 is still needed to revive the larger bearish engine.
Sell-side Research
- No relevant data at the moment.
Market Chatter
- The Aussie has struggled to gain traction despite improved risk appetite, which keeps downside drift risk alive before the Fed.
- RBA communication retained a hawkish tone after the hold, but the board did not consider a hike at this week's meeting.
- Stop-liquidity is clustered near 0.7038 below and 0.7090 above, framing the next session sweep risk.
Strategy
The failed dip below 0.7060 argues against chasing fresh shorts into the current range floor. The underpriced path is downside only if 0.7050/0.7038 breaks and holds, otherwise a stop-run toward 0.7090 can clear late bears first.
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USD/CAD — Spot: 1.3999
Technical Analysis
- Indecision is building at overbought levels after repeated long upper and lower candle shadows.
- Today's 1.4008 probe is the immediate rejection reference. Clean resistance remains 1.4024, the 2026 high, then 1.4048 upper Bollinger.
- Short-term support sits near 1.3993/85, with 1.3956 and 1.3946 the deeper trigger area if the correction develops.
Sell-side Research
- No relevant data at the moment.
Market Chatter
- Oil weakness and a Fed-BoC rate tone tilted toward the US side have supported USD/CAD bids near recent highs.
- USMCA negotiations and the July 1 deadline are moving into focus as an additional CAD timing risk.
- Retail traders remain heavily short the pair, which keeps local squeeze risk alive if 1.4008/24 is reclaimed.
Strategy
The squeeze above 1.40 has already rejected, and overbought structure makes fresh longs poor value. Prefer fading failed strength below 1.4008, while a break that holds above 1.4024 would force a reset back to squeeze risk.
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EUR/GBP — Spot: 0.8650
Technical Analysis
- The cross remains constructive after the recent bear run was damaged, but volatility is still clouding near-term direction.
- The 0.8650/56 area has already been probed. The next resistance cluster is 0.8668/73 from the daily cloud base and 100-DMA.
- Support is defined by the 0.8637 current-session low, then the 0.8618 lower Bollinger extension area.
Sell-side Research
- No relevant data at the moment.
Market Chatter
- Soft UK CPI reinforces the near-term BoE dovish argument and helps explain why the cross holds near recent highs.
- Thursday's BoE decision, vote split and UK labour data keep sterling-event risk compressed into the next 24 hours.
- The by-election risk adds a political layer that can cap sterling rebounds if fiscal credibility concerns return.
Strategy
The corrective upside has played, but chasing into 0.8668/73 before BoE risk is poor value. Prefer pullback-supported longs while 0.8637 holds, using the upper cluster as profit-taking and acceptance evidence rather than initial entry.
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EUR/CHF — Spot: 0.9183
Technical Analysis
- The cross has slipped back below the 0.9200 handle after a 0.9209 probe failed in early trade.
- Immediate support is the 0.9182 session low, with stop-liquidity near 0.9175. Resistance is 0.9209, then 0.9227/34.
Sell-side Research
- No relevant data at the moment.
Market Chatter
- The SNB decision is due Thursday, with the market focused on whether the zero-rate stance is maintained.
- Swiss voters backed the new EU agreement in polling and rejected the population-cap proposal, reducing domestic political noise.
- Leveraged futures positioning in CHF is stretched on the short side, which can amplify a CHF-positive surprise.
Strategy
The 0.9200 reclaim has failed before SNB risk, and short-CHF ownership makes upside chase vulnerable. Prefer limited-risk downside optionality or failed-rebound sales below 0.9209, while acceptance above that level delays CHF-squeeze pressure.
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NZD/USD — Spot: 0.5821
Technical Analysis
- The kiwi remains heavy after rejection of the 0.5867 55-DMA, which has encouraged bears for now.
- Today's range is tight at 0.5816/0.5835. Stop-liquidity around 0.5805 and 0.5845 frames the first sweep risk.
- Broader cited support remains 0.5680/0.5580, while 0.5990/95 and 0.6012 are distant resistance references.
Sell-side Research
- No relevant data at the moment.
Market Chatter
- NZ consumer confidence dropped to 80.4, its lowest level since 2023, adding a domestic drag.
- NZ Q1 current account printed -1.04bn, with GDP due tonight and expected at 0.8% q/q in the cited poll.
- FOMC risk arrives first, making USD direction the immediate gate before the local GDP release.
Strategy
The bearish story is visible, but spot is already near the lower intraday stop pocket. Prefer selling failed rebounds below 0.5845/0.5867, while a clean hold below 0.5805 after the event would reopen downside participation.
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Market Summary
EUR/USD — 1.1606 — Trap watch
- Market consensus: Bulls hold structure, but sell-side still sees rallies vulnerable before FOMC.
- Recommendation: Do not chase. Buy only a failed dip or follow a held 1.1630 break.
GBP/USD — 1.3418 — Sell failed strength
- Market consensus: Softer CPI and BoE risk leave sterling vulnerable below the rejected rebound.
- Recommendation: Fade failed rebounds below 1.3438/44 unless spot reclaims the band and holds.
USD/JPY — 160.17 — Options preferred
- Market consensus: Yen remains weak after BoJ, but intervention risk caps clean spot chasing.
- Recommendation: Use volatility or fade a failed 160.50/72 sweep. Respect held acceptance above.
AUD/USD — 0.7063 — Defensive
- Market consensus: Aussie cannot convert risk relief into momentum before the Fed decision.
- Recommendation: Follow downside only if 0.7050/0.7038 holds below. Otherwise watch 0.7090 squeeze risk.
USD/CAD — 1.3999 — Trap watch
- Market consensus: Oil weakness supports the pair, but overbought rejection weakens fresh longs.
- Recommendation: Fade failed strength below 1.4008. A held 1.4024 break revives squeeze risk.
EUR/GBP — 0.8650 — Rebound risk
- Market consensus: Soft UK CPI and BoE risk keep the cross supported near recent highs.
- Recommendation: Prefer pullback-supported upside while 0.8637 holds. Take profit near 0.8668/73.
EUR/CHF — 0.9183 — Options preferred
- Market consensus: SNB risk and stretched short-CHF ownership make EUR/CHF upside chase fragile.
- Recommendation: Prefer downside optionality or failed-rebound sales below 0.9209 before SNB.
NZD/USD — 0.5821 — Wait for event
- Market consensus: Weak confidence and pending GDP leave kiwi defensive, with FOMC first.
- Recommendation: Sell failed rebounds below 0.5845/0.5867, or wait for 0.5805 acceptance.
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Risk note
This market review is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Margin trading is speculative and may not be suitable for all investors.

18 June 2026, 11:13 AM London, UK
By late London morning, FX is trading around a clear post-Fed Dollar regime, but the next few hours are not a simple chase. EUR/USD has dropped into a huge live option battlefield around 1.1450 to 1.1500 before today's New York cut, which can slow or distort downside follow-through. GBP/USD has already fallen hard, yet the BoE decision is still ahead and can turn stretched sterling shorts into a two-way event trade. USD/JPY is pressing the 161.00 intervention-sensitive zone with option caps nearby, while USD/CAD confirms broad Dollar strength but looks technically overheated. AUD/USD and NZD/USD remain vulnerable as risk relief fails to offset hawkish Fed repricing. EUR/GBP is the cleanest sterling event gauge because low volatility leaves the cross exposed to a BoE range break.
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EUR/USD — Spot: 1.1462
Technical Analysis
- Losses have put the long-term range base back in sight, with the fall stretched but still backed by firm daily downside studies.
- Resistance sits at the 1.1546 10-day average and 1.1564 200-hour average. Support is 1.1448 pivot S1, then the 1.1409 2026 low.
- A recovery above 1.1546 would force a rethink, but while that area caps, the March low remains the bear reference.
Sell-side Research
- Credit Agricole remains bearish, although it lifted its Q3 target to 1.14 from 1.12 as lower energy prices reduce the most extreme downside risks.
- ING expects renewed Dollar demand through summer and sees EUR/USD vulnerable toward 1.13/14 in July as the Fed delays easing deeper into 2027.
Market Chatter
- Today's New York cut has reported EUR/USD expiries above EUR14bn at 1.1500/10, plus around EUR2.74bn at 1.1450 and smaller nearby strikes.
- The Fed removed its easing-bias language and projected a 2026 hike, driving a broad Dollar and US Treasury yield rally.
- The US-German 2-year spread has widened again, reinforcing the Dollar yield advantage and leaving EUR/USD longs vulnerable.
Strategy
Broad USD pressure is now the regime, but the huge 1.1500/10 expiry can slow a clean chase before the New York cut. The underpriced path is pin first, then downside release if spot stays below 1.1479 after the cut.
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GBP/USD — Spot: 1.3226
Technical Analysis
- Sterling has shifted sharply lower, with the move extending toward the year's low after Wednesday's heavy post-Fed close.
- Resistance is now the 1.3325 session high and 1.3361 10-day average. Support sits at the 1.3188 100-week average, then the 1.3160 2026 low.
- The speed of the decline is dragging daily studies toward oversold territory, which matters with BoE risk still ahead.
Sell-side Research
- Bank of America expects the BoE to vote 7-2 for a hold today, with two hike votes and a risk that the split moves to 6-3.
Market Chatter
- Cable dropped to a 10-week low after the hawkish Fed hold, with 1.3325 from 11 June now cited as resistance.
- The BoE decision is still ahead today, and the market is leaning toward an unchanged 3.75% policy rate.
- UK labour data were mixed, with a lower jobless rate but firmer wage growth, leaving the policy read less one-sided.
Strategy
Sterling downside has already paid into a 10-week low, with BoE risk still ahead today. The underpriced path is short-covering only if the decision lifts spot back above 1.3224/25, otherwise accepted weakness keeps 1.3188 in play.
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USD/JPY — Spot: 160.88
Technical Analysis
- The pair keeps grinding higher in a steady trend, with pent-up Dollar demand tempered by caution near the 161.00 area.
- Resistance is 160.93 pivot R1 and the 161.00 20-day upper Bollinger, then 161.55 weekly extension. Support is 160.38 10-day and 159.90 21-day averages.
- Momentum remains constructive, but the upper volatility boundary is close enough to make fresh topside chasing more fragile.
Sell-side Research
- SocGen frames 160.70/161.20 as the make-or-break zone and says a short-term pullback is likely unless that hurdle is cleared.
- MUFG argues the yen's failure to strengthen after the BoJ hike keeps pressure on Japan to intervene again, especially as leveraged funds increased short-yen exposure.
Market Chatter
- Market talk points to stops above 161.00, with large knockouts around 162.00 and 165.00 keeping official-pressure risk in focus.
- Reported expiries around 160.00/50 are Dollar supportive, while the 161.00/10 area is expected to help cap spot into today's cut.
- Importer demand at Tokyo fixes and equity-hedging yen sales continue, but official comments are limiting the upside chase.
Strategy
The USD trend is valid, but 161.00 is a policy-sensitive battlefield rather than clean breakout value. The underpriced path is a stop test that fails under option caps or official-pressure risk, while a held retest above 161.20 would void the fade.
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AUD/USD — Spot: 0.7006
Technical Analysis
- Back-to-back bearish closes have improved the short setup, although the early rebound briefly damped the bear bias.
- Resistance was rejected around the 0.7038 10-day average, with 0.7056/69 the next technical band. Support is 0.6995, then 0.6972 lower Bollinger and 0.6952 30-week average.
- Daily momentum remains negative, but a rising RSI warns against selling after the whole intraday range has already been spent.
Sell-side Research
- No relevant data at the moment.
Market Chatter
- The Aussie remains under pressure after the Fed put 2026 hikes back on the menu, despite improved risk appetite from the US-Iran memorandum.
- Several Fed policymakers now expect at least one hike by year-end 2026, which is capping rallies in high-beta FX.
- Clustered stops below 0.6975 may become the next liquidity pocket if 0.6995 gives way cleanly.
Strategy
The Dollar regime argues lower, but selling the session low after a full range move is poor value. The underpriced path is a failed rebound below 0.7038/42, then renewed downside toward 0.6995 and the stop pocket below.
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USD/CAD — Spot: 1.4130
Technical Analysis
- The pair has accelerated into a fresh 2026 high, but the technical note flags a massively overbought condition after Wednesday's sharp rally.
- Resistance is 1.4152 pivot R1 and 1.4166 weekly technical resistance, then 1.4204 pivot R2. Support is 1.4020 pivot S1 and 1.3993 10-day average.
- The rally is still intact, but acceleration into resistance raises correction risk if today's high fails to extend.
Sell-side Research
- No relevant data at the moment.
Market Chatter
- Retail traders remain heavily short USD/CAD, and the short share has risen, which keeps local squeeze risk active near the highs.
- CAD also faces a separate headwind from USMCA uncertainty into the 1 July deadline.
Strategy
The easy contrarian fade is tempting, but one-sided retail shorts and broad USD strength warn against fighting the squeeze blindly. Prefer pullback discipline above 1.4122, while failure below that level shifts the setup from squeeze to overdue correction.
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EUR/GBP — Spot: 0.8667
Technical Analysis
- The cross remains constructive but volatile, with Monday's rebound having damaged the recent bear run.
- Spot is pressing the 0.8665 cloud base and 0.8673 100-day average, while 0.8700 is the larger cap. Support sits near 0.8625, then the 0.8617 lower volatility band.
- A completed daily close above 0.8673 would matter more than another intraday probe before the BoE decision.
Sell-side Research
- Bank of America expects a BoE hold today with two hike votes, while noting the risk of a more hawkish 6-3 split.
Market Chatter
- EUR/GBP overnight implied volatility is only marginally higher into BoE risk, and broader implied volatility remains near multi-year lows.
- Option pricing suggests the BoE is not expected to break the broader 0.8600-0.8750 range by itself.
- Makerfield by-election risk is being priced through options expiring early next week rather than only today's BoE window.
Strategy
The cross has already paid part of the upside move into 0.8668/73, while low implied volatility says the market is relaxed before BoE. The cleaner expression is a short-dated strangle, not spot chasing, unless 0.8673 holds after the release.
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Other Pairs
Technical Analysis
- NZD/USD failed above the 0.5867 55-day average and now trades near the lower end of the 0.5752/0.5835 post-Fed range.
- JPY crosses are heavy, with EUR/JPY back into 184.36/95 support, GBP/JPY testing the 212.84/213.03 zone, and AUD/JPY inside its 111.73/113.21 rising support area.
Sell-side Research
- MUFG says yen weakness after the BoJ hike keeps pressure on Japan to intervene again, with leveraged funds having increased short-yen exposure.
Market Chatter
- NZD/USD received only temporary relief from a GDP beat, as the hawkish Fed reaction kept the kiwi in a Dollar-led rout.
- Heavy JPY crosses show the USD/JPY intervention regime is spilling into broader yen risk rather than staying pair-specific.
Strategy
Broad USD strength favours NZD/USD downside, but the cleaner secondary risk is yen-cross liquidation if USD/JPY rejects 161.00. Avoid chasing JPY crosses into support. Prefer failed rebounds or optionality while the official-pressure regime remains live.
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Market Summary
EUR/USD — 1.1462 — Post-cut downside
- Market consensus: Bearish EUR/USD after the hawkish Fed, with option gravity still active before the cut.
- Recommendation: Respect the 1.1500/10 pin first, then favour downside if 1.1479 stays capped.
GBP/USD — 1.3226 — Wait for event
- Market consensus: Cable is heavy after the Fed, but BoE risk can still force short-covering.
- Recommendation: Avoid chasing lows before BoE. Reassess around 1.3224/25 after the decision.
USD/JPY — 160.88 — Trap watch
- Market consensus: Dollar-yen remains bid, but 161.00 is capped by options and intervention pressure.
- Recommendation: Do not chase 161.00 blindly. Fade failure unless 161.20 retests and holds.
AUD/USD — 0.7006 — Sell rebounds
- Market consensus: Aussie remains vulnerable as hawkish Fed pricing offsets risk-relief headlines.
- Recommendation: Prefer failed rebounds below 0.7038/42 before pressing 0.6995 and lower stops.
USD/CAD — 1.4130 — No fresh chase
- Market consensus: USD/CAD squeeze pressure persists, but the rally is technically overbought near highs.
- Recommendation: Stay constructive above 1.4122, but a break below shifts focus to correction risk.
EUR/GBP — 0.8667 — Options preferred
- Market consensus: BoE risk is underpriced by low volatility, with the cross near range resistance.
- Recommendation: Use a short-dated strangle, or follow spot only after 0.8673 holds post-release.
OTHERS
- Market consensus: NZD stays pressured by the Dollar, while JPY crosses remain sensitive to intervention risk.
- Recommendation: Sell failed NZD rebounds and avoid chasing yen crosses into support without rejection.
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Risk note
This market review is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Margin trading is speculative and may not be suitable for all investors.