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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #21,301
  • Sep 4, 2007 5:20pm Sep 4, 2007 5:20pm
Quoting fourxtrader
Zoran,

What's your take on this recent 40 - 60+ pip drop?

Is it the magnetism of the 5sma on the 4HR?



itshookmydumpster
I've been waiting for a nice retrace back to 233.00 so I can load up more longs. Instead it has kept going up so I might have to wait for the upper trendline to break. Though it's bedtime here so I may miss all opportunities (keeping two long entries from 232.00).

I don't think that line will break easily and there is still a possibility it may come back to the bottom line (and break it). Be prepared for all scenarios I think!

Z
  • #21,302
  • Sep 4, 2007 5:21pm Sep 4, 2007 5:21pm
I think it is a profit taking and due to thin liquidity, the move becomes exaggerated .. just trying to find a reason for it
Hope when Japanese market opens shall propel this pair to the moon or at least to the cloud
  • #21,303
  • Sep 4, 2007 5:32pm Sep 4, 2007 5:32pm
Quoting fourxtrader
Zoran,

What's your take on this recent 40 - 60+ pip drop?

Is it the magnetism of the 5sma on the 4HR?



itshookmydumpster
Fourxtrader

If you looked at your daily chart the 5sma was around 233.85. The spike went down to 233.73. In my opinion this was a retract to daily 5sma. Aus has said in the past that daily retractments happen rarely but usually when the market is slow.

This is my opinion..could be right or wrong.
The Will is Greater than the Skill
  • #21,304
  • Sep 4, 2007 5:36pm Sep 4, 2007 5:36pm
[quote=Zoran;1576080] If that upper trendline breaks then a 400 pip long should be in order. A total of 600 pips from the bottom channel line.

I drew the same trendline but I am curious as to why you estimate a 400 pip long. I am still learning and would value your reasoning.
  • #21,305
  • Sep 4, 2007 5:49pm Sep 4, 2007 5:49pm
Quoting rodders
I drew the same trendline but I am curious as to why you estimate a 400 pip long. I am still learning and would value your reasoning.
The target is in the 238 region. If the trendline breaks, it will be in the 234 region so a total of 400. I can see lots of resistance at 238.80 so I assume that is where this will reverse. I also believe a retest of the low is due and 238 will be the turning point.

So according to my analysis, we should get a 400 pip rise and then a 1700 pip fall back to retest the low. We will just have to wait and see now. Bed time here!
  • #21,306
  • Sep 4, 2007 5:51pm Sep 4, 2007 5:51pm
Quoting Zoran
The target is in the 238 region. If the trendline breaks, it will be in the 234 region so a total of 400. I can see lots of resistance at 238.80 so I assume that is where this will reverse. I also believe a retest of the low is due and 238 will be the turning point.

So according to my analysis, we should get a 400 pip rise and then a 1700 pip fall back to retest the low. We will just have to wait and see now. Bed time here!
Thanks!
  • #21,307
  • Sep 4, 2007 5:51pm Sep 4, 2007 5:51pm
Quoting fourxtrader
Zoran,

What's your take on this recent 40 - 60+ pip drop?

Is it the magnetism of the 5sma on the 4HR?



itshookmydumpster

Hi Doc,

Are u currently long as well? Hope it didn't shook any garbage out of your dumpster
Did you add another lot at low?
  • #21,308
  • Sep 4, 2007 5:54pm Sep 4, 2007 5:54pm
Quoting skillwill
Fourxtrader

If you looked at your daily chart the 5sma was around 233.85. The spike went down to 233.73. In my opinion this was a retract to daily 5sma. Aus has said in the past that daily retractments happen rarely but usually when the market is slow.

This is my opinion..could be right or wrong.


skillwill

Thanks for pointing that out. Looking at my charts
from IBFX it comes even closer on the daily.

daily 5sma 233.68 / spike 233.66 (of course the sma's
are ever changing... more so on the smaller time frames)

Without calling in a technician, wish I could figure out how
to 'easily' cut and paste some charts. Someone gave me
instructions before and my PC kept asked too many confusing
questions.
  • #21,309
  • Edited 6:14pm Sep 4, 2007 6:00pm | Edited 6:14pm
Quoting Zoran
The target is in the 238 region. If the trendline breaks, it will be in the 234 region so a total of 400. I can see lots of resistance at 238.80 so I assume that is where this will reverse. I also believe a retest of the low is due and 238 will be the turning point.

So according to my analysis, we should get a 400 pip rise and then a 1700 pip fall back to retest the low. We will just have to wait and see now. Bed time here!
I am trying to discern where the resistance is coming from at 238.80. I can see that the top of the channel is probably one. Daily 61.8 fib retracement level? maybe SR level on weekly chart.
  • #21,310
  • Sep 4, 2007 6:06pm Sep 4, 2007 6:06pm
Quoting mktjong
Hi Doc,

Are u currently long as well? Hope it didn't shook any garbage out of your dumpster
Did you add another lot at low?

I missed that last spike down to re-enter. I was away from the PC,
but I met my quota earlier....

Don't want to lose my qualification for food stamps!

I'm trying to discipline away from the ranging midmarket markets.

You keep posting and I'll keep learning.
  • #21,311
  • Sep 4, 2007 6:18pm Sep 4, 2007 6:18pm
Quoting fourxtrader
I missed that last spike down to re-enter. I was away from the PC,
but I met my quota earlier....

Don't want to lose my qualification for food stamps!

I'm trying to discipline away from the ranging midmarket markets.

You keep posting and I'll keep learning.

Good for you Doc.
I am also learning .. excited to have a lot of experts here ..exchange our ideas can sharpen each other
  • #21,312
  • Sep 4, 2007 6:19pm Sep 4, 2007 6:19pm
chk post 20081

the analysis there still stands for those who PM me

bbl
  • #21,313
  • Sep 4, 2007 6:45pm Sep 4, 2007 6:45pm
What the hell caused that spike?
  • #21,314
  • Sep 4, 2007 6:47pm Sep 4, 2007 6:47pm
238 on deck as Zoran was saying? He has been right on thus far with that chart he has been showing.
  • #21,315
  • Sep 4, 2007 6:47pm Sep 4, 2007 6:47pm
Quoting markam
What the hell caused that spike?
Did Hakuna go long?
  • #21,316
  • Sep 4, 2007 6:48pm Sep 4, 2007 6:48pm
I had been scalping at the top and bottom of the range, and all of a sudden I am way negative.
  • #21,317
  • Sep 4, 2007 6:49pm Sep 4, 2007 6:49pm
Quoting markam
What the hell caused that spike?
I ordered it, Markam http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon10.gif
Stay cool as long as you are not short http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon10.gif
Nice to have you awaken again.
  • #21,318
  • Sep 4, 2007 6:50pm Sep 4, 2007 6:50pm
Quoting mktjong
I ordered it, Markam http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon10.gif
Stay cool as long as you are not short http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon10.gif
Nice to have you awake again.

I am short. I was scalping. It better come back down or heads will roll.
  • #21,319
  • Sep 4, 2007 6:57pm Sep 4, 2007 6:57pm
Quoting markam
I am short. I was scalping. It better come back down or heads will roll.

oh no .. can't help with that bro. You just like to give yourself a trouble sometimes.
  • #21,320
  • Sep 4, 2007 7:03pm Sep 4, 2007 7:03pm
4 hr QQE is up and confirmed ..
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