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  • #20,661
  • Jun 16, 2026 1:13am Jun 16, 2026 1:13am
DXY OUTLOOK
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  • #20,662
  • Jun 16, 2026 1:43am Jun 16, 2026 1:43am
Quoting Luxyus
accordin tf H8, price has moved after the news on IRAN-US deal with inertia due the empty volumetric of asian session as VROC(25) has printed, to the upside the historical POC @1,1650 can be seen again, the cluster around it is well guarded by bears, let see if they give up. My bias remains bearish anyway. {image}
i m still waiting to short @ 1.1650~
preFED best price imho.
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chaos is just unknown order
  • #20,663
  • Edited 5:43am Jun 16, 2026 5:22am | Edited 5:43am
Plenty of trapped Bulls desperate to recoup losses from yesterday's run up from the weekend opening. It fuels the move up as the deep pockets use the resting liquidity and pent up disappointment to sell in to and maybe drive prices even higher to maximize profits engaging the same Bulls to buy back at even higher prices. There is a shitload of buying for a whole week that went on below this order block from yesterday and they CAN? push price up to maximize profits. With about 90 minutes to the NY Open it looks like price advances and retreats into yesterday's highs coaxing longs to sell taking small losses or getting out flat. Deep pockets will not be able to cover all the inventory they chewed through last week under the 1.1575 low put in wee hours earlier this morning stopping out weak holders and busting margin accounts causing them to liquidate at the lows below yesterday's low. The Banks are NOT YOUR FRIEND.
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  • #20,664
  • Jun 16, 2026 6:51am Jun 16, 2026 6:51am
Futures trading volumes in the last hour have plummeted to session lows. This volume drying pattern indicates that large trading desks have stopped placing orders on the pair, leaving HFT algorithms to manage the price with routine micro-transactions close to the strike @1.16.
It's a pre-storm calm, implied volatility of 5.62% on EUR/USD confirms that strong hands have sealed all major dollar pairs.
More likely no institutional investors will take a position before tomorrow's retail sales and FOMC dot plot.
chaos is just unknown order
  • #20,665
  • Jun 16, 2026 9:20am Jun 16, 2026 9:20am
EU trading in a triangle and a H&S pattern is formed at a resistance zone ....
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  • #20,666
  • Jun 16, 2026 10:18am Jun 16, 2026 10:18am
Banks arks are still taunting trapped longs from yesterday to toss in the towel but running out of trapped liqidity.. Maybe one more 'push' to get through so they can buy them back at a higher price?
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  • #20,667
  • Jun 16, 2026 10:35am Jun 16, 2026 10:35am
Quoting Meer-Shayhak
EU trading in a triangle and a H&S pattern is formed at a resistance zone .... {image}
All of your major trendlines are rising and last week was down and back up through daily order blocks. The only way that happens is if big money is supporting (buying), if not, then price would still be making lower highs and lower lows. Pattern recognition is manufactured, if there really is any. Reading price action and candle structure is more accurate. Look at the length of the recent up-white candles vs the red candles (Elephant Bars). Which are there more of at the end of the last week prior ( and today) vs the beginning of last week? Nothing is perfect or works 100% of the time.
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  • #20,668
  • Edited 11:10am Jun 16, 2026 10:55am | Edited 11:10am
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Maybe get some cabbage today?

If price breaks above 1.16200 I'll looking at 1.16440 possible TP if there is some juice behind the move?
  • #20,669
  • Jun 16, 2026 11:14am Jun 16, 2026 11:14am
The pullback barely crossed a 33% decline with a Bull 180 Reversal which is good if we get more upside>
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  • #20,670
  • Jun 16, 2026 11:39am Jun 16, 2026 11:39am
Over the past three hours, futures volumes have jumped 45% above their intraday average. This increase, combined with the price surge (Effort with Result), indicates that New York trading rooms have attacked the order book, selling dollars to inject liquidity into US equities ahead of tomorrow's Fed meeting.
Cluster around 1.1650 is getting closer, more likely to be touched tomorrow.
chaos is just unknown order
  • #20,671
  • Jun 16, 2026 11:46am Jun 16, 2026 11:46am
Quoting Twocans
{quote} All of your major trendlines are rising and last week was down and back up through daily order blocks. The only way that happens is if big money is supporting (buying), if not, then price would still be making lower highs and lower lows. Pattern recognition is manufactured, if there really is any. Reading price action and candle structure is more accurate. Look at the length of the recent up-white candles vs the red candles (Elephant Bars). Which are there more of at the end of the last week prior ( and today) vs the beginning of last week?...
A chart pattern is only as valid as the trend it’s trying to reverse—a Head and Shoulders means absolutely nothing if there isn't a clear, established uptrend preceding it."

It is literally a reversal pattern: By definition in technical analysis, a Head and Shoulders (H&S) is a major trend reversal pattern. You cannot reverse a trend that doesn't exist. If the market is moving sideways (ranging) or already in a downtrend, finding a "Head and Shoulders" is just looking at random noise.
The psychology behind the pattern: The pattern represents the exhaustion of bulls who are trying to push the price to higher highs.
The Left Shoulder and Head represent the peak of an existing, strong uptrend.
The Right Shoulder shows the bulls failing to make a new high, signaling a shift in market structure.
Without a strong uptrend to exhaust, the psychology of the pattern completely breaks down.
The "Rule of Prior Trend": According to classic charting principles (like Bulkowski or Murphy), the price rise leading into the pattern should be significant. If you spot an H&S after a tiny, three-candle bounce, the pattern has a massive failure rate because there is no real buying pressure to reverse.
  • #20,672
  • Jun 16, 2026 11:57am Jun 16, 2026 11:57am
Quoting Meer-Shayhak
{quote} A chart pattern is only as valid as the trend it’s trying to reverse—a Head and Shoulders means absolutely nothing if there isn't a clear, established uptrend preceding it." It is literally a reversal pattern: By definition in technical analysis, a Head and Shoulders (H&S) is a major trend reversal pattern. You cannot reverse a trend that doesn't exist. If the market is moving sideways (ranging) or already in a downtrend, finding a "Head and Shoulders" is just looking at random noise. The psychology behind the pattern: The pattern represents...
two year daily .... what trend? "All of your major trendlines are rising " I said nothing about a trend structure being in place, bro. I was referring to the lines drawn on the chart of recent activity.
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  • #20,673
  • Jun 16, 2026 12:07pm Jun 16, 2026 12:07pm
50 % retracement on the last swing low to high today. lookin like the gas tank maybe on fumes....?
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  • #20,674
  • Edited 9:18pm Jun 16, 2026 2:36pm | Edited 9:18pm
The Hiken Ashi Candlestick Chart 'smooths out the the candlestick chart and makes finding the higher time frame general direction 10 times easier to see. I don't use it on lower time frames as it slows down the trend rotation. This is where we are today. This is a H-8 chart.
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  • #20,675
  • Jun 16, 2026 3:23pm Jun 16, 2026 3:23pm
Quoting Luxyus
Over the past three hours, futures volumes have jumped 45% above their intraday average. This increase, combined with the price surge (Effort with Result), indicates that New York trading rooms have attacked the order book, selling dollars to inject liquidity into US equities ahead of tomorrow's Fed meeting. Cluster around 1.1650 is getting closer, more likely to be touched tomorrow.
i need a confirmation on 1h before entering sell that would be when we go back below 1575. At this stage bull remains in charge so 1650 is likely!
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #20,676
  • Jun 16, 2026 3:32pm Jun 16, 2026 3:32pm
By the time Feds muddy the water I'll be sippn on a Margarita somewhere...
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  • #20,677
  • Jun 16, 2026 10:29pm Jun 16, 2026 10:29pm
The EUR/USD is trading back and forth around 1.1600 without a clear intention before the significant news today. The 1.1645 resistance level is holding against a break higher towards 1.1685 and 1.1700, while a break lower past 1.1576 and 1.1552 could lead towards 1.1500/14.

Daily volatility (range) 41 pips

Significant news - US Retail Sales & US Interest Rate Decision


Have a great day!

4H
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Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #20,678
  • Jun 16, 2026 11:27pm Jun 16, 2026 11:27pm
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  • #20,679
  • Edited 3:00am Jun 17, 2026 12:31am | Edited 3:00am
Not too much money expiring at todays options but take a close look at tommorows expiries especially these near (except 1.1500 11.1 billion!) at the 1.1630 to 1.1655 band. Normally a run into these is expected with a fade out lower later.

Release to watch: FED interested rate decision.

If the new chairman sounds dovish then expect this zone to turn into support later.

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This is just a scenario and not advice to risk with real money.

https://investinglive.com
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #20,680
  • Jun 17, 2026 12:45am Jun 17, 2026 12:45am
Quoting Js3mwtRc
Not too much money expiring at todays options but take a close look at tommorows expiries especially these near (except 1.1500 11.1 billion!) at the 1.1630 to 1.1655 band. Normally a run into these is expected with a fade out lower later. Release to watch: FED interested rate decision. If the new chairman sounds dovish then expect this zone to turn into support later. {image} This is just a scenario and not advice to risk with real money.
Tonight the rates will remain firm (3.5% - 3.75%) with a probability of 98.4%, but all the lights are pointed on the Dot Plot to understand if Warsh has already managed to bend the board to his vision. So more likely the conference will be very hot.
chaos is just unknown order
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