My Monthly Trading Challenge

Hey everyone,

Welcome to my journal. I have been in the markets for a while now. We all start out looking for the perfect strategy, but eventually, you realize that good habits are what actually keep you in the game.

Personally, I love the data side of the markets. I look at Commitments of Traders (CoT) data, track options open interest, and map out gamma levels to see where the liquidity is flowing. I then combine that data with my technical setups to actually take my trades. But here is the simple truth. The best setups and analysis in the world cannot save a poorly managed position.

That is exactly why I am starting this journal. I am doing this completely in public because I know this level of accountability will finally help me break through. The things I want to focus on every month are risk management and the execution side of trading. Each month, I will tackle one specific aspect. If I fail to stick to the rules I set for myself, I will do that exact same challenge all over again the next month.

For this first month, the challenge is all about risk management. To be completely honest, messing up my risk rules has been my number one problem over the last year. It is the main thing keeping me from achieving consistent returns, and it keeps locking me into a frustrating boom and bust cycle. I make great progress, and then a sudden slip in discipline wipes it out.

Finding the trade is just a small part of the job. The real work comes down to simple things like keeping your position size right, respecting your stop loss, and never letting a random burst of confidence change your lot size.
I will not be posting trade ideas before they happen. Instead, I will post my reviews after the trades are closed. The main goal of these reviews is to track my own behavior. I will log whether I managed to keep my lot sizes perfectly consistent and my risk rules totally stable.

If I can keep my execution clean, the rest will take care of itself. My hope is that being completely transparent about this struggle will add real value to some of the traders here who are fighting the exact same battle.

I invite you to follow along, join in with your own monthly challenges, and please feel free to share your thoughts in the thread.

See you in the charts!

1. Weekly Fundamental Catalyst for week starting on 15th Jun 2026

1. The June FOMC Interest Rate Decision (Wed): The apex cross-market catalyst. This marks the historic first FOMC meeting chaired by the newly sworn-in Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh. With top-tier economic surveys warning of headline inflation accelerating toward 6% in Q2, the market has completely erased rate cuts and is actively pricing a 63% probability of a rate hike. Chair Warsh's tone, economic projections, and implementation of a stricter rules-based monetary aggregate frame will dictate global terminal yield baselines.
2. The ETF Liquidity Bleed: Standard Chartered strategy logs reveal that over 270 tonnes of gold held within exchange-traded funds slipped into loss-making territory below the $4,250 baseline last week. Forced mechanical liquidations from retail tracking models are actively hitting the spot market, creating a persistent overhead supply drag.
3. Geopolitical Realignment: The Israel-Iran ceasefire parameters have faced severe friction as rising inflation metrics are seen weaponizing domestic policy. If oil consolidates its run above $95/bbl, the stagflationary transmission loop will keep a floor under structural gold demand despite the surge in nominal yields.

2. COT Institutional Positioning (Reported June 12)

 

1. USD Index (DXY): Aggressive Bullish Buildup. The latest Commitments of Traders data confirms a major capital rotation. Non-commercial accounts expanded gross longs to 50.95% against shorts at 49.05%, showing a sharp +1.51% change in long accumulation. Institutional desks are utilizing global currency depreciation to load up on structural dollar exposure.
2. Spot Gold (XAU/USD): Systematic Trend Capitulation. Managed Money accounts aggressively unwound long exposures while re-loading short delta blocks as the $4,250 support tier yielded. Real-money central bank accounts (China, Poland, India) continue to comfortably absorb spot liquidations at the lower margins, but leverage funds are firmly in control of short-term price discovery.
3. NASDAQ 100 (NDX): Managed Money De-leveraging. The latest CFTC data confirms that non-commercial asset managers and leveraged hedge funds slashed aggregate gross long positions by 9.2% over the reporting cycle. Speculative desks are aggressively high-grading their books into pure cash equivalents ahead of Chairman Warsh’s policy overhaul, leaving retail accounts over-allocated at local upper support bands.
4. Bitcoin (BTC): Institutional Arbitrage Winding. CME Bitcoin futures witnessed a 7.4% contraction in net-long positions within the "Other Reportable" tranche. Real-money accounts are scaling back structural basis trades (Long Spot ETF / Short CME Futures) under the weight of persistent spot ETF redemption lines, signaling a cautious institutional holding pattern.
5. EUR (The Rate-Hike Dissipation): Leveraged speculative net shorts expanded by 6.2%. While the ECB's recent inflation-driven mandatory rate hike to 4.00% provided temporary support, macro desks are aggressively treating the Euro as a primary funding currency again, anticipating that stagflationary energy transmission via Brent crude (holding firmly above $95/bbl) will severely degrade Eurozone growth margins.
6. JPY (The Intervention Sandbox Capitulation): Non-commercial leverage funds aggressively unwound long hedges, booking a 12.4% expansion in gross short contracts. The massive post-CPI/NFP spike has driven USD/JPY relentlessly back toward the 160.00 ceiling, overwhelming the Ministry of Finance's (MoF) manual intervention cushions as real-money yield differentials reassert dominance.
7. AUD (The Crowded Liquidation Risk): Large speculators remain stubbornly net-long, with allocations resting at the 88th historical percentile. Although the RBA's hawkish baseline keeps the Aussie populated by carry-trade chasers, this extreme crowding exposes the currency to an acute margin-clearing liquidation wave if global growth metrics underperform.
8. GBP (The Neutral Accumulation Profile): Asset managers maintain a flat-to-neutral stance on Sterling. Cross-arbitrage engines are heavily favoring the Pound over the Euro due to stickier wage metrics, though long allocations remain tightly capped ahead of Thursday's BoE vote.

3. Themes for the week: (At the start of the week)

1. Spot Gold (XAU/USD)
   1. Direction: Long
   2. Concept: Buy the pre-FOMC wash-out into the heavy monthly put floor zone.
   3. Potential Levels: Entry near the psychological $4,000 demand belt; looking for a clear bounce back toward the $4,200 handle.
   4. Risk Cap: A clear daily break beneath the multi-month floor.

   
   

2. NASDAQ 100 (NDX)
   1. Direction: Short
   2. Concept: Sell a breakdown past the key gamma cliff or fade early-week bounces into supply blocks.
   3. Potential Levels: Trigger on a clean break under the 28,300 cushion; aiming for an extension down toward the 28,000 structural support region.
   4. Risk Cap: Move back above the monthly balance anchor.

   
   

3. Bitcoin (BTC/USD)
   1. Direction: Long
   2. Concept: Accumulate the pre-FOMC liquidity drop directly into deep institutional buying layers.
   3. Potential Levels: Buy near the $60,000 psychological baseline; tracking a mean-reversion move toward the $64,000 gravity node.
   4. Risk Cap: A daily close below the structural safety boundary.

   
   

4. EUR/USD
   1. Direction: Short
   2. Concept: Fade weak pre-FOMC short-covering bounces right into heavy corporate supply walls.
   3. Potential Levels: Position into the 1.0800 overhead resistance tier; targeting a macro drop down toward multi-month support lows.
   4. Risk Cap: A daily close above local counter-trend resistance.

   
   

5. EUR/AUD
   1. Direction: Short
   2. Concept: Exploit the wide yield gap via automated trend systems once post-FOMC risk settles down.
   3. Potential Levels: Short any relief pullbacks remaining below 1.6300; looking for a long-term slide toward the major structural floor zone.
   4. Risk Cap: A clear shift in the H4 trend structure.