can u explain what is happening ? im still bearish
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- #36,622
- Apr 6, 2026 10:58am Apr 6, 2026 10:58am
- Joined Aug 2009 | Status: Reading the TAPE | 2,389 Posts
can u explain what is happening ? I'm still bearish (Emphasis Added)
The short answer is: You should be bearish.
You should be bearish until you see Bullish volume greater than or equal to the Bearish volume on that beautiful Up Thrust that "started" the decline.
I've added a quick chart. I hope you placed the trigger matrix on that Up Thrust and then found a nice entry at the zero level where there is a test that fails. And the 30 MA is below the 50.
You should have some method of trailing a stop. Profit targets aren't great, because markets tend to trend longer than you think. And as Jessie Livermore would say, " Being right and sitting tight, that's where the money is."
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
- #36,623
- Apr 7, 2026 11:28pm Apr 7, 2026 11:28pm
- Joined Jan 2015 | Status: Trader | 1,460 Posts
{quote} You should have some method of trailing a stop. Profit targets aren't great, because markets tend to trend longer than you think. And as Jessie Livermore would say, " Being right and sitting tight, that's where the money is."
- #36,626
- Apr 9, 2026 11:14pm Apr 9, 2026 11:14pm
Yeah options timing is tricky AF I'm finding. Maybe the underlying takeaway is that options (read: shorter term trading) requires multiple good entries whereas the higher probability trading is entering once, then being patient and sitting in a good position. With that in mind, the rest of my comment is more applicable to shorter-term trading where you'd bail and then re-enter a positions.
IIRC Tom, Seb or Philip had a saying about if you can see it on the chart after the fact, that means it is there in real-time as well.
Looking @ NIFTY, the 4/2 bar doesn't change the background, but is arguably the most bullish bar on the chart given its location, recent price action and subsequent price action. IMO, the catch-22 is that it is only through plenty of chart-time/reps that I would be able to spot the turning point in real-time instead of after the chart has already developed. Still working on that muscle memory...
IIRC Tom, Seb or Philip had a saying about if you can see it on the chart after the fact, that means it is there in real-time as well.
Looking @ NIFTY, the 4/2 bar doesn't change the background, but is arguably the most bullish bar on the chart given its location, recent price action and subsequent price action. IMO, the catch-22 is that it is only through plenty of chart-time/reps that I would be able to spot the turning point in real-time instead of after the chart has already developed. Still working on that muscle memory...
- #36,627
- May 13, 2026 6:30pm May 13, 2026 6:30pm
- Joined Aug 2009 | Status: Reading the TAPE | 2,389 Posts
You should have some method of trailing a stop. Profit targets aren't great, because markets tend to trend longer than you think. And as Jessie Livermore would say, " Being right and sitting tight, that's where the money is." (emphasis added)
There's not much to be said about the stop, except always use one. You shouldn't need a prop firm to tell you that.
As for the profit target, rather than choosing a random target that can't be hit, but satisfies the need for one. You can create a reasonable target with the matrix itself. Just use the Fib extension part of the Fib retracement tool.
Looks a lot like Anotan's chart above.
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
- #36,628
- May 14, 2026 7:54pm May 14, 2026 7:54pm
Rando question but does anyone have a better read for bar #6? I have a narrative as a whole, but I feel like 5 & 6 are pivotal and that for #6, I'm giving a caveman explanation of a nuanced bar lol. Open to ideas on giving it more color/context:
- EvR @ the lows, some demand present
- Next bar up but weak close. Needs to be tested
- Test-esque bar that shakes out the lows but a wide spread and volume could be better
- Breaks down further but ledge-holding slightly
- Closing on the lows but no selling pressure... Bears aren't very strong
- Subtle rejection of fresh new lows which is important even w/ the weak close.
- Buyers step in and even as supply is present they manage to keep price back inside the prior range as a subtle SoS
- Buyers show real strength and bears back off completely
- #36,629
- May 15, 2026 6:57pm May 15, 2026 6:57pm
- Joined Aug 2009 | Status: Reading the TAPE | 2,389 Posts
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
