"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
- #361
- Jun 10, 2026 8:24am Jun 10, 2026 8:24am
- Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Live and learn. | 25,321 Posts
- #362
- Jun 10, 2026 8:53am Jun 10, 2026 8:53am
- Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Live and learn. | 25,321 Posts
I think we'll get a good rally to close the week, FOMO around the SPCX ipo....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
- #363
- Jun 11, 2026 1:43pm Jun 11, 2026 1:43pm
- Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Live and learn. | 25,321 Posts
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
- #364
- Jun 12, 2026 7:21pm Jun 12, 2026 7:21pm
- Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Live and learn. | 25,321 Posts
Good week trading SPX & NDX flys. I had better luck with the 50-wing NDX call flys, will trade them again if I can grab them cheap - < $1.
Riding into next week on SPX call flys for Mon and Tues, such as....
Riding into next week on SPX call flys for Mon and Tues, such as....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
- #365
- Jun 12, 2026 7:31pm Jun 12, 2026 7:31pm
- Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Live and learn. | 25,321 Posts
NDX 50 wings really are annoying. Really need to hit one well right into the close. I'd rather go 100 wide....
entered this several days ago, looking for a rally @ the SPCX ipo. Just need the momo to go into Mon-Tues. Good truthtweets will help.
entered this several days ago, looking for a rally @ the SPCX ipo. Just need the momo to go into Mon-Tues. Good truthtweets will help.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
- #366
- Jun 12, 2026 7:46pm Jun 12, 2026 7:46pm
- Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Live and learn. | 25,321 Posts
100 wings will cost 4x as much as the 50 wings, you pay for the wider tent, larger probable maxP. /NQ has actually been flagging, so I'd probably not spend too much on debit spreads. Note if you push the NDX flys out 4-5dte, the debit comes down some.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
- #367
- Jun 12, 2026 8:00pm Jun 12, 2026 8:00pm
- Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Live and learn. | 25,321 Posts
getting paid $.40 for the 10wing put bwf, could net over $20/contract with a perfect finish @7300 Tues.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
- #368
- Jun 14, 2026 2:37pm Jun 14, 2026 2:37pm
- Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Live and learn. | 25,321 Posts
You Reeka! Jk....overlapping atm imbalanced flys. Note the imbalance - both have $5 offsets. so both go on for a credit. The most either one could lose is $5 - so, put this combo on when you expect a tight-ranging market (lol, good luck with that). (Both could go to max loss in an extreme move.)
Look at 1 or 2 dte. If the modeler is right (grain o salt) then the losses would be small over a wide range, but accelerate as you get closer to expiry. Ideally, you get a set @ a big round and it pins on expiry day, in which case both flys would go to high profit. You might play around with fotm hedges - single longs or long verts. Or, you might put this combo in the middle of a two-sided trade, like double calendars or double flys or....
Look at 1 or 2 dte. If the modeler is right (grain o salt) then the losses would be small over a wide range, but accelerate as you get closer to expiry. Ideally, you get a set @ a big round and it pins on expiry day, in which case both flys would go to high profit. You might play around with fotm hedges - single longs or long verts. Or, you might put this combo in the middle of a two-sided trade, like double calendars or double flys or....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
- #369
- Jun 26, 2026 6:48am Jun 26, 2026 6:48am
- Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Live and learn. | 25,321 Posts
possible to set these up for no net loss - have to leg into them. If going a $5 positive imbalance, net debit needs to be <$5....then, can watch til the last hour and see if there is a MaxP result for one of them.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
- #370
- Jun 26, 2026 8:54am Jun 26, 2026 8:54am
- Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Live and learn. | 25,321 Posts
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
- #371
- Edited 12:00pm Jun 26, 2026 11:31am | Edited 12:00pm
- Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Live and learn. | 25,321 Posts
looking for a Friday sell-off into the close...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
- #372
- Jun 26, 2026 11:58am Jun 26, 2026 11:58am
- Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Live and learn. | 25,321 Posts
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
- #373
- Edited 6:12pm Jun 26, 2026 1:33pm | Edited 6:12pm
- Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Live and learn. | 25,321 Posts
I got the dump into the close I was looking for but it came at the last dickhair of time. I had a closing order for the put flys that didn't fill. I kept trying after 4:00, no luck, kept getting rejected. The account statement says the trade is cash settled for $3.30. I was curious so I called the broker. The broker is pretty good and has dedicated teams for futures, options, and even complex options. Guy told me the settled price at 4:00 was 7354, so my put fly will be worthless. Not what my account balance says. Also, the last candle for SPX (ie, the 3:55 5-min candl) has a close value of 7337.81. So, idk wtf. We'll see what happens - probably won't know til Monday morning.
(So, what? Is the "cash-settled" price different than the closing bar price? How could that be?)
Not upset or worried, but I learned something - the cash settled products settle at the top of the hour. Your "extended hours" extra time does not apply. So. live and learn. Coulda closed the puts for small profit for a while during the last hour, but I decided to wait/see what would happen at the close. The moral: close early, if you can.
(So, what? Is the "cash-settled" price different than the closing bar price? How could that be?)
Not upset or worried, but I learned something - the cash settled products settle at the top of the hour. Your "extended hours" extra time does not apply. So. live and learn. Coulda closed the puts for small profit for a while during the last hour, but I decided to wait/see what would happen at the close. The moral: close early, if you can.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
- #374
- Jun 26, 2026 1:47pm Jun 26, 2026 1:47pm
- Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Live and learn. | 25,321 Posts
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
- #375
- Jun 26, 2026 1:52pm Jun 26, 2026 1:52pm
- Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Live and learn. | 25,321 Posts
Guy told me the settled price at 4:00 was 7354, so my put fly will be worthless. Not what my account balance says. Also, the last candle for SPX (ie, the 3:55 5-min candle) has a close value of 7337.81. So, idk wtf. We'll see what happens - probably won't know til Monday morning. (So, what? Is the "cash-settled" price different than the closing bar price? How could that be?")
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
- #376
- Jun 27, 2026 7:34pm Jun 27, 2026 7:34pm
- Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Live and learn. | 25,321 Posts
I will look for an entry for 6/29. I think I do better entering at the fist stall in the opening range @ 0dte. I'd like to get the front strikes of the 2 flys adjacent or overlapping & I'd like to get in for a total of <$4 total net debit.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
- #377
- Jun 27, 2026 7:38pm Jun 27, 2026 7:38pm
- Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Live and learn. | 25,321 Posts
on a big gap up, maybe the put fly could fully contain the call fly...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
- #378
- Jun 29, 2026 8:00am Jun 29, 2026 8:00am
- Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Live and learn. | 25,321 Posts
on a big gap up, maybe the put fly could fully contain the call fly...
So the combo locks in a no-risk 0dte trade with a min profit of about $50. Ideally, SPX, wants to stick around 7400 towards the close. It'll be tricky, and I don't usually have the patience to wait for perfection...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
- #379
- Last Post: Jun 29, 2026 10:23am Jun 29, 2026 10:23am
- Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Live and learn. | 25,321 Posts
closed for $130 net as SPX was reaching out too far north
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake