Weekly Performance Review

One of the great things about trading is this: Success is black and white. It's measurable. The proof is all contained in your results. This thread is to evaluate performance, and make improvements over time based on this evaluation. It's a four step process:
Step 1: Perform a premarket analysis / determine a bias for the upcoming week / establish levels to look for trading opportunities (I'm thinking weekly).
Step 2: Trade! Work the plan.
Step 3: At the end of the week, evaluate the results (more below).
Step 4: Come up with an improvement plan for the next session, based on deficiencies identified in step 3.
Step 5: Rinse, wash, repeat

Evaluation criteria:
- Profit / loss
- Rate the quality of the trades taken, in relation to the strategy / rules of your system.
- Identify trades not taken, describe why you stood aside. Did you miss out? Get lucky by not jumping in?
- Identify any attitudes, behaviours, or psychology experienced during the week and try to tie them in to your trading results.

It's mid week right now, so I'll start off with step 3 at the end of the week. There will be a trade explorer attached to this thread, currently demo until I reach a 10% return. I've been away for a couple of years, and want to shake off the dust before jumping in live again.
Anyone is welcome to comment, just don't be a dickhead.
Anyone can participate with their own review, but it must follow the format outlined above AND you must have a trade explorer. Demo is fine, loser is fine, winner is fine. But bullshitting is not. Post up your results or we all assume you are a poser.
Welcome.

Okay week one review, lots to unpack here....
Profit / Loss: 20 pip loss in 1 trade taken (-1%).

I shorted EUR/USD at 1.18 just prior to Trumps tweet about the strait being open (see pic, trade entry green arrow). I want to blame the news, but I have a theory that for the most part news just moves price to the level it was heading anyway. I had picked 1.18 as a likely turnaround but as it turns out the liquidity was at 1.1850. No harm no foul there. I based my short on the neutral to bearish daily candle printed thursday which breached the previous swing low on the 4hr chart. I think my mistake here was ignoring that the thursday daily candle failed to close below the previous daily low. And relatively shallow breach on the 4hr. The result was a 50/50 trade that at best would have been break even without the help from the news. 2/5

What is more pertinent this week is the trades I didn't take. It's easy in hindsight to pick every swing and say you missed a trade. For this exercise I am only including trades where I had my finger on the button and pussed out. For the missed profit I am only measuring to the point where I would have likely exited. Again hindsight could take me right to the full distance of the move, but I'm not trying to bullshit myself. There were two of these trades (see pic red x).
-1st one right out of the gate, the opening gap. I noticed that it gapped down to a support level that was a good long. It moved 130ish pips, I probably would have got out at +90. All of my trades start out with 1% risk and I close out 50% at 1:1 risk reward / set to break even. So the math here works out to +20 pips 1st 50% (+1/2%) +90 pips 2nd half (2.5%). Total missed profit 3% account balance.
- 2nd one was the pullback from that move. I commented in the thread that I expected a shallow retrace and sure enough it bounced at 1773 which I had identified pre market. I probably would have banked the 20 and set to breakeven (+20 pips). The math: +20 pips 1st half (1/2%) 2nd half stopped at BE.
- There was another bounce at 1773ish that ended up being the big move up but I wouldn't have traded that because I only play a level once.

Psychology: Fear of loss. This has been going on for a few weeks and started with two losers in a row. It has extended through this week and will be the focus of my improvement plan for next week. Including the loss, I turned what would have been a net 2.5% gain to a 1% loss this week.

Other: I called a bullish bias heading in to the week and focused in on a counter trend trade. I was patient, waiting all the way until Friday to take it, but it was counter trend. Fishbones noticed this pattern over two weeks and called it out when I claimed bullish bias for this week. It took a couple of days for it to penetrate past my ego, but it is a valid point. Thanks to fishbones for pointing it out.

The improvement plan next week revolves around the fear to take a trade issue. I will focus on the countertrend obsession in future weeks if it continues but for now the fear of loss is the primary area of improvement:
I am bumping down to 0.25% risk until I have a net positive week. I need a slump buster, should be able to regain confidence this way. Once I turn this thing around I'll move the risk back up. If I don't have a net positive week, this will be my focus until I do. 1st pic is EUR/USD premarket analysis, 2nd is how it turned out.

Week 2 pre-market:
I'm staying away from yen pairs, they seem to be messy. Keeping an eye on USD/CAD, expecting the recent low to hold. Me and this pair have kind of a love / hate relationship. I've made good money and blown an account on this pair. We'll see what this week has to offer. 2nd pic is EUR/USD

Just dropping this here, timeless advice to my future self from 2020:

A little too soon to proclaim myself a successful trader so take this with a grain of salt......here's what I've learned:
1-Fear of missing out, fear of losing, becoming over confident after a good trade, etc.... are all rooted in your relationship and beliefs about money. If you are like most of us, you place too much value and self worth on money. You need to disconnect from that to be a successful trader. There is an unlimited supply of money (just ask the fed) and a million ways to get it for yourself. You have chosen trading. Whether you are successful or not, it does not change who you are or your value as a human being.

2-Once you have that out of the way you need to realize that the best setup, the most obvious winner, the best trade you've ever spotted from time to time can and will go against you at any moment. This was a big one for me. It's really hard to judge if your system is any good when the market goes against you 30-50% of the time. To overcome this, you need to give any new system, indicator, method, whatever, a chance to help you. System jumping is good until you find what works for you, but it is difficult to tell short term if you are actually winning. This is where a trade explorer helps. Is your account balance growing over time? Good. Keep doing that.

3- Now it gets fun. With all your BS out of the way, it becomes a competition. I think of it this way. Somewhere out there on the opposite side of my trade is some chad working at a huge mega bank making high six figures, driving a super car home to his hot wife. He laughs at the little retail traders that he and his buddies clean out daily. But when I have a winning trade, he loses. Not so funny now is it Chad? It doesn't really work that way, with my account balance and retail broker my trades never make it out to the market (B book) but it is fun to think about chad shaking his fist when the little guy takes his nut.

Once you reach number three, a few losing trades cause you to evaluate the market conditions rather than your trading ability. You are now resilient.

Week 2 review:
Profit loss 2 trades 0.5% gain for the week.
1st one was a eur/usd sell at 1737. Unfortunately I had failed to adjust the entry higher and it triggered while I was sleeping. Closed out at +1 pip. The move was 65 pips, and I could have just stayed in it. This was a good trade, and closing it when I did was a reasonable choice. I'll take the win. 4/5 would have been 5/5 but for the early close.
2nd was a eur/usd buy at 1692, closed out at +20 pips late friday. 4/5 with one point deduction as it was countertrend.

Psychology: Reducing the risk was the right move. I think I will raise it by .25% to 0.5% total for next week and see how it goes.

Improvement plan for next week: Circle back to the countertrend obsession. Going to focus on trading with the trend and limiting countertrend trades. This should improve my win / loss ratio and increase my time in market.

How did my levels do? U/cad traded a bit below my level but closed the week with it supporting. EU followed my scenario as shown in blue. Levels are getting better, only a little bit out of phase now.

Week 3 review:
Profit / Loss: +1.2% on three trades*
This week was all about selling the EUR/USD based on two consecutive weekly bearish candles. *All three trades were basically the same trade. 1st was based on 4hr chart, ended up closing it and re-entering on the daily chart. Made sense at the time, but it really ended up just entering at a worse price than the 4hr entry, with a bigger s/l and lower lot size. Third one was the one I kept open, ran for 46 pips. Any one of these trades would have ended up at the same place, but the daily entry would stilll be open (higher s/l) but in the negative.
I'm counting all of these as one trade 5/5. Nailed the entry and rode it down capturing most of the move.

Psychology: Was comfortable with the 0.5% risk, will up to 1% for next week and see how it goes. One of my ongoing issues is wanting to get out of a trade the minute it even stalls. A retrace / retest is nearly terrifying. I have had success despite this by capturing an impulse move and getting out. But looking back on trade history this year I have left a lot on the table. Getting out of trades for no reason other than fear or something like it.

Other: USD / CAD did not hold as expected haha. Fortunately I wasn't paying too much attention to it this week and did not attempt to long.

Improvement plan for next week: Let it ride..... I need to get more time in market and capture more of the moves that go my way. Exit 50% at 1:1 with breakeven at nearest support / resistance to pay for the trade, and let the rest run for profit or to stop loss. This is very uncomfortable for me. I start thinking about locking in whatever profit I have which leads to a close usually within a few minutes. I may end up giving back some profits, but for now I think it will be worth it to get used to letting trades run.

Moving all my pre-market stuff to here from now on. Will discuss results in this thread.
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...-candle-cartel

Week 4 review:
P/L +0.4% on two trades
First trade was a 1% loss right out of the gate. USD/JPY sell based on recent BOJ intervention, with the expectation that the drop would continue. Not a bad strategy overall but I got a liitle over excited about it. In hindsight, I would play after some level of retracement. 2/5
2nd was a long USD/CAD. Price was at a level where it was do or die for bulls and was showing suppport. Countertrend for sure, but it worked out. 1.3% gain, closed due to the weekend. 4/5, -1 because it was countertrend. Otherwise the management was disciplined and appropriate.

Psychology: That immediate and rapid loss to open the week was a real kick in the ding ding. I was able to power on without too much stress so that is good. On the winning trade, I wanted to close that thing at every stall / retracement. Did much better than previously, so there was some level of improvement on the week 3 goal.

Other: My bias / predictions for the week did not turn out as expected. Was looking for a rejection on EUR/USD which didn't really happen. USD/JPY fell into a range. More to discuss in the candle cartel thread....

Improvement plan for next week: Continuation of let it ride. I need to become completely comfortable staying in a trade as long as it is viable. Good progress this week, room for more next.

Week 5 review:
P/L: 0% / $2 on 1 trade. I have recently started using an EA to allow me to trade while sleeping / working. This was an accidental trade which opened, and I closed it immediately. Still working out the mechanics / settings of this thing haha.

Psychology: Spent the week stalking a JPY short. I am convinced that the BOJ will attempt another intervention. Only problem is that I passed over other opportunities wanting to "keep my powder dry". Not a huge issue, but it is another layer of the onion which just got exposed: Losing focus on the overall market while stalking a certain pair / setup.

Other: I missed a short on USD/JPY which would have been a 20-30 pip gain on one of those weird spikes. It was due to a glitch in the EA which has been fixed. Totally ok, this is one of the reasons I'm trading demo for now.

Improvement plan for next week: I have bumped my risk down to 0.5% / trade to allow for multiple trades at once if the opportunity arises. The goal is to monitor the 4 pairs I mainly trade and maybe a couple of new ones. Try to avoid focusing in on one in particular. This is not to be confused with picking the one or two that are moving cleanly. That's a good thing. Also....you guessed it, let it ride.

Week 6 review:
P/L -1.5% on two trades. First was a short USD/CAD, a terrible trade for two reasons. 1st it was against my winning trade from week 4, which is still running btw but I am satisfied having closed it given current geopolitical conditions. 2nd reason is how low of a potential retracement level we were at, 50% at best with no other key levels nearby. 0/5.
2nd was a USD/JPY short per my ongoing intervention watch. Entry got filled on another one of those exageratted downward spikes, which I believe are just big players offloading their longs. However, this is a legitimate place for a turnaround whether the bank steps in or not. There is some rotation happening here, when it finally turns I am expecting a big drop. 4/5 would be 5 if it was not countertrend for reasons.

Psychology: Nothing major here, but I am starting to wonder if this JPY thing is my moby dick story arc. Too early to tell so I'm not calling it yet.

Improvement plan for next week: Continuation of week 5.

Week 7 review:
P/L: +0.5% on two trades. EUR/USD long and USD/CAD short. Both entered Thursday. EUR/USD was based on the previous weekly bullish candle, CAD was based on a strong rejection on daily chart. Closed both Friday morning. Unfortunately both shot in my direction just after closing, leaving +/- 1/2% on the table. I'm taking the win, both 4/5, - one for closing early.

Psychology: Building confidence

Other: This will be the 1st losing month since re-starting trading in February. Not sweating it. Did better at monitoring more setups, had the possibility of three open trades this week. EA has opened up much more opportunity during London and New York.

Improvement plan for next week: Let it ride continued. Still closing trades for the weekend until the geopolitical settles down unless I'm ridiculously ahead.

the closing early pattern is interesting because it shows up consistently even when the setup is right. the trade gets a 4/5 because the decision quality was good but the exit behavior overrides it. do you track what state you are in when you close early or just the outcome afterward?