Superfly!

2-sided, delta neutral = Coyote. Enter in the last 30 min or so. Coyote 1-lot 15/10 running $5-$6.

coyote for Wednesday

Call fly hit a $6 tp, so $3 net; will let the put fly run to see if SPX will reverse, looks unlikely, but even a 10-15pt pullback will help.

b/e for the put fly is at 7400, looks futile with SPX running away north

put side for tomorrow, looking omg for just a little pullback in the last hr for the calls.

for thurs

puts are trash, a 2dte put fly with 100pt wings for $4.....ie, risk $4 to make max $95. There will be a pullback....someday. As shown, setting 2dte 100pts down for the near short strike, will b/e at about 50pts down - or b/e at 7450 (but....since Mar30 there have been only 4 red candles with > 50pt range)

well, call fly similar is just $2.65....a better bet anyway in the 1-way market

Looking for individual names that might be good to short....

bear puts for Monday, looking for some downside follow through, risking $800 to make > $8k.

and a little something for the bounce. /ES weekly shooting star tells me we will follow thru. Mondays have been active. If we get another bond rout day Monday, watch out below.

closed put spreads for small losses near the open.

stupid cheap puts, risking $1,200 to make >$75k, b/e Tues would be about 7300-7325

Pretty good content. TP says you are trading a short vert and a long vert when you put on a fly. If you go bwf for credit, you can end up with the risk free long vert if you can buy back the short vert for a debit that is less than the credit you got for the whole bwf to start.

Probably (in a one way market) do the bwf credit fly with puts only. An example...


In the above, you only are getting a nickel credit for the bwf. SPX would have to move way hard against you for the short vert to be closed for a tiny debit. If SPX doesn't move against you very hard, you will have some profit from the bwf. So, you'd need to decide what to do.

here, the puts bwf is closer to atm and so yo get a little better credit & can probably close for a net gain if SPX moves north. Then you would have the risk free put vert as shown.





or maybe just leave it alone and try to catch the large win in the put fly, if there is a reversal. Or let it run to expiry and collect the entire credit from the put fly.

@ 1dte, 15/25 wings, front strike + 25 - 30 delta

looking for a 7400 pin tomorrow, a day ahead of CPI day

no pin, but I still made a buck on it, after the wild dump and bounce. For tomorrow I am gambling on a dump off the CPI, which seems like a shoe-in for a hot print..

a smaller bet for the upside.