What happen in the market today?

GBP/JPY Bullish Amidst Monetary Policy Clashes and Geopolitical Sentiment

GBP/JPY has currently risen to its highest peak of 214.999 since May 2026. The pair is in a bullish phase but is vulnerable to correction as the market weighs two key factors: relatively high UK interest rates, the potential for a Japanese interest rate hike in the coming months, and geopolitical sentiment in the Middle East.

The Bank of Japan currently maintains its interest rate at 0.75%. However, Japan's first-quarter GDP growth surged strongly by 0.5% year-on-year, driven by resilient domestic consumption and exports. This data gives the BoJ the green light to tighten.

BoJ Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino emphasized that Japan's real interest rates remain very low. The BoJ is committed to raising its benchmark interest rate at its June 16 meeting to curb inflation stemming from the Middle East conflict, which has driven up global oil prices.

The Japanese Ministry of Finance recently confirmed a record-breaking foreign exchange intervention to stem the JPY's decline. The USD/JPY psychological level near 160 makes the market wary of sudden selling in cross pairs like GBP/JPY if the JPY suddenly strengthens.

Due to global geopolitical conflict, the UK is facing another energy price shock. Ofgem recently announced a 5% increase in electricity price ceilings and a 24% increase in gas prices, effective July. This situation has sparked concerns that UK inflation will spike again.

KPMG cut its 2026 UK economic growth forecast to just 0.8%, down from 1.4% the previous year. This energy shock puts the Bank of England (BoE) in a tight spot. On the one hand, they must raise interest rates to combat inflation, but on the other hand, the domestic economy is weakening.

Although the Business Confidence Index improved to -53 in May from -64 previously, the majority of business owners remain deeply concerned about the high tax burden and the global economic slowdown.

This week, the market will also be watching NFP and CPI data, the BoJ meeting in mid-June, developments in oil prices, and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, which will affect Japanese inflation.

The GBPJPY intraday range forecast is around 214.00-216.00. Immediate support is around 214.00, with the next target around 213.00. Immediate resistance is around 215.20, with the next target around 216.00. This forecast could be incorrect.

USD/JPY Climbs Towards the Crucial 160.00 Level

The safe-haven USD/JPY currency pair is showing bullish sentiment towards the crucial 160.00 level. Overall, current sentiment remains dominated by the strength of the US dollar, but is limited by the risk of currency intervention by the Japanese government. The current price is 159.933 on the FXOpen chart, nearly approaching the previous peak of 160.723, which then fell to a low of 155.549.

The market is currently monitoring the USD/JPY price movement, which is generally influenced by three main factors: the BoJ's dilemma due to energy pressures, the resilience of the US dollar, and the risk of intervention at the psychological level of 160.00.

The Japanese economy actually grew quite resiliently in the first quarter, at 0.5%. The market also expects the BoJ to raise its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points at its June 15-16 meeting. However, the surge in global energy prices due to current geopolitical tensions is weighing heavily on Japan, as an energy importer. This worsened Japan's trade balance and continued to pressure the JPY.

Meanwhile, the US dollar remained strong, driven by solid economic growth, one factor supported by massive investment in global AI infrastructure. The still-high US bond yields compared to Japanese bonds have led market players to choose to hold USD over JPY for carry trades.

However, there is a risk of intervention by the Japanese government at the crucial 160.00 level. Because the price is currently very close to this psychological level, the market is becoming extra cautious. This level is a psychological barrier where the Japanese Ministry of Finance and the Bank of Japan typically intervene suddenly by injecting billions of dollars to rescue the Yen. This has made USD/JPY buyers cautious about pushing the price higher before the release of important US data.

Technically, the price is currently above the 50-day moving average (MA), indicating maintained bullish momentum, approaching the upper band line, which appears to be expanding.

Today, the market will shift its focus to the important, high-impact US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change for May, which measures the estimated number of job additions in the private sector. If the actual figure is higher than expected, it tends to support USD strength. Another important data item is the ISM Services PMI, which measures the level of purchasing managers' activity in the service sector.

The forecasted fair price range for USDJPY is around $158.00 to $180.00. Immediate support is around 159.20, with the next target around 158.80. Immediate resistance is around 159.80, with the next target around 160.50. This forecast could be wrong.

AUD/USD falls after weaker-than-expected GDP release

The AUD/USD currency pair fell to the 0.71233 price area from the 0.71807 range. The price drew a long-bodied bearish candle with almost no shadow. The current price is at 0.71277 on the FXOpen chart, just above the 50-day moving average (MA).

The dynamics of the AUD/USD movement attracted sellers due to slowing Australian domestic economic data and market anticipation of US employment data. The Aussie currency faced selling pressure following the release of Q1 GDP data.

Australian economic growth was only 0.3%, below market expectations of 0.55%. Annually, Australia's economic growth remained at 2.5%. Interestingly, this slight growth was supported by massive investment in the data center sector. Without this investment, the Australian economy is at risk of contraction.

Australian inflation remains around 3.4%, supporting the RBA's hawkish stance. Weak economic growth and household spending make it more likely the RBA will hold interest rates rather than raise them again in the near future.

Regarding the USD, the DXY is currently rising to 99.530 from a low of 98.751, implying stability within a relatively narrow consolidation range.

The market is closely monitoring developments in US-Iran negotiations for a peaceful solution and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. This positive progress is gradually reducing demand for the USD as a safe-haven.

Investors are currently adjusting their positions ahead of tomorrow's Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data. Given the solid JOLTS job openings data earlier this week, the market is speculating that the Fed, under the new leadership of Kevin Warsh, will remain cautious and not rush to cut interest rates. This maintains the foundation of the USD's strength.

Australia relies heavily on Chinese demand for commodities in international trade. Concerns about slowing Chinese growth due to high energy costs and weak manufacturing activity are hindering the AUD's strength.

Technically, AUDUSD is currently just above its 50-day moving average (MA), with a reasonable price range forecast between 0.70750 and 0.72000. Nearest support is around 0.71000, with the next target around 0.7075. Nearest resistance is around 0.7155, with the next target around 0.7180. This forecast could be incorrect.

Canadian Dollar Weakens, Market Anticipates US and Canadian Employment Data

The USD/CAD commodity currency pair exhibited high volatility, with current market sentiment tending toward moderate bullishness. The Canadian dollar weakened against the US dollar, reaching a high of 1.39250 in mid-April 2026. The current price is around 1.39104 on the FXOpen chart, with the candlestick showing a bullish pattern with few shadows at the top and bottom of the candle.

The Canadian dollar is under pressure due to the Canadian economic slowdown and growing concerns of a technical recession. Growth and investment data remain weak, so the market is holding back expectations for BoC policy tightening. Oil prices fluctuated and briefly fell sharply. As Canada is a major oil exporter, the decline in oil prices contributed to the CAD's weakening.

Today, the market is anticipating major news. Some are suggesting that today will be a Super Friday, with employment data from both neighboring countries released simultaneously.

The market anticipates a cooling in the US labor sector after the strong performance of the previous month. The Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) is expected to grow by 85,000-102,000 jobs, down from last month's 115,000. The unemployment rate is expected to remain stable at 4.3%-4.4%. If the NFP is above 150,000, it will reignite inflation concerns and encourage the Fed to hold interest rates high for longer, keeping the USD strong. Conversely, if it is below 70,000, expectations of an interest rate cut will increase and put pressure on the USD.

Canada will also release employment data at the same time. Markets expect employment to recover slightly by around 8,000-10,000 jobs after falling to minus 18,000 last month. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 6.9%. The Bank of Canada recently held interest rates at 2.25%. If Canadian employment data is poor, pressure on the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates at its next meeting will intensify, which could weaken the Canadian Dollar.

Macroeconomically, USD/CAD is currently experiencing moderate bullish sentiment due to renewed market concerns about US trade tariffs, which are pressuring commodity currencies like the CAD. Furthermore, the strengthening of the US dollar index (DXY), approaching the 100-point mark, has limited the CAD's room for movement.

Technically, USDCAD is moving strongly above its 50-day moving average (MA), confirming a short- to medium-term bullish bias on the daily chart structure. The forecast daily range for USDCAD is 1.38300-1.39600. Immediate support is around 1.38700, with the next target around 1.38500. Immediate resistance is around 1.39400, with the next resistance target around 1.39800. This forecast could be incorrect.

Market volatility, WTI oil prices fall to around 88.75

The oil market is showing signs of a highly volatile consolidation phase, with prices likely to hover in the $90-$100 per barrel range amid a tug-of-war between geopolitical risks and projections of future oversupply. At the end of the week, the XTIUSD price drew two consecutive bearish candles, bouncing near the 50-day moving average (MA). The closing price reached 88.74 at FXOpen, down from the previous high of $93.81.

The current bullish factor for the XTIUSD pair is tensions over the Strait of Hormuz in the US-Iran war. The geopolitical conflict involving the US, Israel, and Iran since the beginning of the year has remained the main driver of high oil prices. Peace talks or negotiations on trade routes in the Strait of Hormuz have so far failed to produce concrete progress toward truly securing it. This issue keeps the risk premium high in the energy market.

Despite the US's commitment to releasing strategic oil reserves, domestic US refineries are operating at a very high rate, approaching 955% of their capacity. This has accelerated stock absorption and held prices back from rising sharply.

A bearish factor for the XTIUSD pair is that crude oil imports from China have reportedly declined significantly compared to the initial period before the conflict broke out. The lack of purchasing power from the world's largest energy consumer acts as a heavy anchor, preventing oil prices from rising higher beyond the $100 level.

Global financial institutions such as JP Morgan project that, structurally, global oil supply for the remainder of 2026 could potentially exceed demand growth. If geopolitical tensions suddenly subside, this supply fundamental is predicted to gradually push oil prices back to lower levels.

Goldman Sachs reports weakening global oil demand, particularly from China and Europe, which is also contributing as a bearish factor. The market is also considering the possibility of a de-escalation of the US-Iran conflict, which could reduce the geopolitical risk premium. OPEC+ recently agreed to increase production quotas for July, which could potentially increase supply if export constraints begin to ease.

Technically and based on daily sentiment, XTIUSD is expected to move within a wide consolidation range today as the market awaits new macro data catalysts such as the US inflation rate, CPI, and next week's FOMC meeting. US Crude Oil prices are expected to move within a daily range of $87 to $100. Nearest support is around $89.50, with the next target around $87.50. Nearest resistance is around $93.50, with the next target around $98.00. This forecast could be wrong.

Gold is under bearish pressure due to recent fundamental changes.

Gold prices have experienced significant pressure, causing them to correct downwards to $4,258 before rebounding to around $4,327 on the FXOpen chart. The main factors weighing on gold prices are currently dominated by the release of US economic data and easing geopolitical tensions.

The release of US Nonfarm Payrolls data last Friday showed a very solid labor market. This has fueled concerns that the Fed could raise its benchmark interest rate by the end of 2026 or at least maintain high interest rates for longer. Gold, as a non-yielding asset, has become less attractive compared to the US dollar and bonds.

The 10-year US Treasury yield surged above 5.50% as bond yields and a stronger dollar raised the opportunity cost of holding gold, triggering a massive sell-off that erased all of gold's annual gains since early 2026.

Safe-haven sentiment in gold weakened somewhat following President Trump's statement that a peace deal with Iran was close and his call to prevent tensions in Lebanon from escalating. The decline in crude oil prices also eased short-term inflation concerns, reducing gold's appeal as a hedge.

Today's economic calendar is light on high-impact news, with only the NFIB business optimism index and a 3-year US Treasury auction. The market's primary focus will be on Wednesday, June 10th, when US CPI data is released. The market is expected to consolidate today before the inflation data is released.

Technically, the daily gold market structure has shifted to a significant bearish bias after the price broke below the 200-day moving average, which is around $4,380-$4,512. This breakout of the $4400 level confirms full short-term control by sellers.

The gold price consolidation range today is estimated to be between $4280 and $4376. The nearest support is around $4318, with the next target around $4280. The nearest resistance is around $4350, with the next target around $4376. This forecast could be wrong.

USD/CAD bullish sentiment ahead of US and Canadian data releases

The USD/CAD pair is trading around 1.39512 on the FXOpen chart after reaching a high of 1.39692. The chart drew a doji candle in this area, which is a resistance zone for the Canadian dollar.

The market is currently awaiting the outcome of the Bank of Canada (BoC) policy meeting. Most economists expect the BoC to maintain interest rates at around 2.25%. Meanwhile, the Fed is likely to maintain a relatively tight policy stance.

A bullish factor for the USD/CAD is that the Canadian economy is showing signs of slowing, even entering technical territory, weighing on the Canadian dollar. Speculators' positions on the CAD are increasingly bearish, and the US-Canada interest rate differential remains favorable to the USD. Uncertainty regarding North American trade negotiations is also pressuring the CAD.

A bearish factor for the USD/CAD is high oil prices due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Canada is a major oil exporter; rising oil prices tend to support the CAD. Canada's trade balance is improving, and exports are reaching record highs, which are helping to support the CAD.

Today, the market awaits the BoC's interest rate announcement. The Canadian economy experienced an unexpected contraction in the first quarter of 2026. Furthermore, Canadian core inflation slowed to a five-year low. This situation has led to the Bank of Canada (BoC) projecting a looser stance, holding interest rates low at 2.25%.

Conversely, the Fed is maintaining a high interest rate of around 3.75%. The 2-year bond yield differential between Canada and the US widened by around 31 basis points this month, making USD-based assets more attractive to investors who support USDCAD carry trades.

Today, the market will also focus on the upcoming US CPI release. If US inflation figures are higher than expected, the Fed's hawkish sentiment will strengthen, pushing USDCAD higher. If inflation cools, the USD will experience a technical correction and pressure the USDCAD pair downward.

The CAD is highly sensitive to oil prices. WTI fell nearly 4% to $87.48 per barrel after tensions in the Strait of Hormuz eased and shipping lanes were reported to have returned to normal by the US Secretary of Energy. This drop in oil prices removed a major supporter for the CAD, automatically boosting USDCAD.

Fluctuating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to fuel a rush for safe-haven assets like the USD. President Donald Trump's aggressive tariff rhetoric on social media adds uncertainty to Canada's economic outlook.

Volatility is expected to spike today due to two high-impact news releases from Canada and the US. The price range is estimated at 1.3860-1.4020. Immediate support is around 1.3910, with the next target around 1.3860. Immediate resistance is around 1.3960, with the next resistance target around 1.4020. This forecast could be wrong