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Another way to trade PA profitably

  • #81
  • Sep 1, 2007 12:02pm Sep 1, 2007 12:02pm
Quoting Urchin
Seeking, just checked Traex's thread, excellent ideas there, lots of good stuff. I could not find any matches with my entries, on the contray I saw discussion to short usd/cad - I am going the opposite direction today (plus 20 pips as of now).

Other open trades:

- long usd/chf (up 37 pips, 10 pips protected)
- short eur/usd (up 12 pips, 1 pip protected).

So, I guess this is off the cards... Good luck.
Hi Urchin,

Nice call and nice strategy! Speaking of USD/CHF, we have had a not so perfect PIN on the 28th. Then the two bars from 29th and 30th formed a DBLHC in james16 terminology around 1.1985 support zone. Dollar seems getting stronger here.

On other hand, the latest COT report shows that commercials are extreamly long on EUR and extreamly short on JPY. Does that mean that both EUR/USD and USD/JPY are going higher in coming weeks? Or JPY crosses are bullish again?

Thanks to CateFul for setting up this thread!

Ken
  • #82
  • Sep 1, 2007 12:38pm Sep 1, 2007 12:38pm
Quoting goodtiding5
Hi Urchin,

Nice call and nice strategy! Speaking of USD/CHF, we have had a not so perfect PIN on the 28th. Then the two bars from 29th and 30th formed a DBLHC in james16 terminology around 1.1985 support zone. Dollar seems getting stronger here.

On other hand, the latest COT report shows that commercials are extreamly long on EUR and extreamly short on JPY. Does that mean that both EUR/USD and USD/JPY are going higher in coming weeks? Or JPY crosses are bullish again?

Thanks to CateFul for setting up this thread!

Ken
Ken, this is Cateful's strategy and mine, let me say, is some kind of adaptation, or rather free interpretation of COT reports. I am glad Cateful brought 2 components together (COT reports and PA) into 1. So, you might find through my posts that my trades so far happened to be 100% contrarian and I believe there is nothing wrong with that. Especially, if I would have followed the opposite flow of money, I could win, too, but at a different time and entry. You can check my posts why in the beginning of this thread.

So far, regardless, I have 100% win ratio even if last friday (freaking friday..) stopped me out of all positions with minimum gain (euro plus 1 pip, swissie 10 pips, loonie 1 pip) just before they came back to "square one", i.e. my initial entry. Apart from swissie which gained a lot and is now very close to my target 1.2100. I was not at the computer most of last friday and missed all the fun with PA (excellent short opportunity with euro at 1.3700). Oh, well, I do not complain as I am not a day trader and we shall have lots of new opportunities. Since this is Cateful's thread I do not want to dilute much of the published principles nor do i want to create an impression that my trades are always contrarian. Absolutely no. I traded COT reports in the past, that's why I am here supporting Cateful's ideas.

Thanks for the kind words, Ken. I will post shortly what I think about the forthcoming week.
I am a very humble trader Up 380 pips - two trades.
  • #83
  • Sep 1, 2007 3:59pm Sep 1, 2007 3:59pm
Quoting Urchin
Ken, this is Cateful's strategy and mine, let me say, is some kind of adaptation, or rather free interpretation of COT reports. I am glad Cateful brought 2 components together (COT reports and PA) into 1. So, you might find through my posts that my trades so far happened to be 100% contrarian and I believe there is nothing wrong with that. Especially, if I would have followed the opposite flow of money, I could win, too, but at a different time and entry. You can check my posts why in the beginning of this thread.

So far, regardless, I have 100% win ratio even if last friday (freaking friday..) stopped me out of all positions with minimum gain (euro plus 1 pip, swissie 10 pips, loonie 1 pip) just before they came back to "square one", i.e. my initial entry. Apart from swissie which gained a lot and is now very close to my target 1.2100. I was not at the computer most of last friday and missed all the fun with PA (excellent short opportunity with euro at 1.3700). Oh, well, I do not complain as I am not a day trader and we shall have lots of new opportunities. Since this is Cateful's thread I do not want to dilute much of the published principles nor do i want to create an impression that my trades are always contrarian. Absolutely no. I traded COT reports in the past, that's why I am here supporting Cateful's ideas.

Thanks for the kind words, Ken. I will post shortly what I think about the forthcoming week.
I think Urchin you're absolutely right. I'm trading longer term so this past week's consolidation didn't hurt much if you're looking at a trade on a weekly basis. I think the reason for your trades being contratrian was this consolidation area. Price moves up and down and you're able to catch the smaller (relatively) price movement. It's perfectly fine it's just a matter of entry and timing.

Anyway, I'm still holding long on AUD/JPY from 2 weeks ago (currenly at 370+ pips after the draw down of last week's consolidation. The draw down was about 200 pips), look to long EUR/USD but currently I'm getting a bearish pin bar on this pair, so I will probably wait a little longer for this one. probably within this coming week we'll see some action.

And regarding the Friday's COT report, the commercials, as I expected, were still short on Yen on Tuesday despite an almost 500 pips drawdown. It's been two weeks since I opened my AUD/JPY position, and the next week is going to be interesting I'm sure.
Take a report.
  • #84
  • Sep 1, 2007 4:14pm Sep 1, 2007 4:14pm
Quoting CateFul
....currently I'm getting a bearish pin bar on this pair, so I will probably wait a little longer for this one. probably within this coming week we'll see some action.
hallelujah, Cateful! My short (meaning sell) instincts with euro are only growing based on this daily pinbar. The commercials again increased their long positions and these two signals are contradicting. So, I will short. I will buy usd/chf again based on the strong day close. Wish me good luck.
I am a very humble trader Up 380 pips - two trades.
  • #85
  • Sep 1, 2007 4:20pm Sep 1, 2007 4:20pm
Quoting Urchin
hallelujah, Cateful! My short (meaning sell) instincts with euro are only growing based on this daily pinbar. The commercials again increased their long positions and these two signals are contradicting. So, I will short. I will buy usd/chf again based on the strong day close. Wish me good luck.
price action can be traded by itself, no problem. Short EUR looks good on the pin bar but not on the weekly. But it's good for some decent pips. COT doesnt mean a lot on daily, your trades will be good as always
Take a report.
  • #86
  • Sep 1, 2007 4:42pm Sep 1, 2007 4:42pm
I will put my thoughts here, I like PB more than any other pattern, so I try to scan/find them anywhere I can, it's true, there will be conflicting PBs, but it's better to know more than less, and here are my charts for USDCHF, and no, I didn't take it, but I am analyzing it.

As you can see PB up was coming from H4 and then affected H12, later we found PB daily that is not strong, because it's coming from ranging market and Nose is only 60%, so break of PB up H24 is on 2nd bar to the right, which is also helping to make DBLHC, which of course would confirm the signal once more.

I've seen PB coming from H1 to H4 to H24 and resulting a very good pips, so it's a wonderful signal to look for.
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  • #87
  • Sep 1, 2007 5:51pm Sep 1, 2007 5:51pm
Quoting mason
I will put my thoughts here, I like PB more than any other pattern, so I try to scan/find them anywhere I can, it's true, there will be conflicting PBs, but it's better to know more than less, and here are my charts for USDCHF, and no, I didn't take it, but I am analyzing it.
Great stuff, Mason. When I look at these swissie's wicks whatever the timeframe is, I always find myself fighting a precarious dilemma - when I am in profit, should I lock it or let the price evolve by itself until either I am taken out or reach the target. This is what happened last week. I protected the profit and now seeing where the price is (87 pips from the entry) makes the other part of dilemma as equally attractive. I guess, such decisions are still left much to our discretion, i.e. our individual trade plan. I chose to protect because I was equally exposed in short eur/usd and it worked. Just a little off topic, but just sharing some of my thoughts when I am looking at your beautiful charts.
I am a very humble trader Up 380 pips - two trades.
  • #88
  • Sep 1, 2007 7:36pm Sep 1, 2007 7:36pm
Quoting Urchin
Great stuff, Mason. When I look at these swissie's wicks whatever the timeframe is, I always find myself fighting a precarious dilemma - when I am in profit, should I lock it or let the price evolve by itself until either I am taken out or reach the target. This is what happened last week. I protected the profit and now seeing where the price is (87 pips from the entry) makes the other part of dilemma as equally attractive. I guess, such decisions are still left much to our discretion, i.e. our individual trade plan. I chose to protect because I was equally exposed in short eur/usd and it worked. Just a little off topic, but just sharing some of my thoughts when I am looking at your beautiful charts.
I haven't solidly define my exit yet, but I use modified BAT ATR indicator as my benchmark for trail stop, but I observe we need discretionary setting for each pair, that's why I combine it with Take Profit level in the possible and cofluenced area within S/R and fib lines.

But my backtest assured me that if we follow the PB signal, it will come with positive, just make sure we train our eye to differentiate the quality of PB.
  • #89
  • Sep 2, 2007 4:46am Sep 2, 2007 4:46am
Quoting mason
I use not only weekly, but many custom TF for daily. I have seen many times PB from small TF went up to higher TF that later shows PB too. In this case daily to weekly.

How wrong it is, we can only know by monitoring them, just as COT told us.


Do you mind, highlighting what kind of information are useful for you, such as found here http://www.shatterfield.com/cot.whatis.php ?
What's TF PB and PA? is there a thread where its got all those acronyms covered? I imagine COT stands for currency options trading?
  • #90
  • Sep 2, 2007 4:51am Sep 2, 2007 4:51am
Quoting CateFul
does anyone know how to change the thread title? You guys seem to be more into this COT stuff than PA so I'm thinking to add COT into the title.
im pretty sure u have to go to ur first post and then just click edit and the thread name should be there for ur editing pleasure.
  • #91
  • Sep 2, 2007 7:22am Sep 2, 2007 7:22am
Quoting Atomic_Sheep
What's TF PB and PA? is there a thread where its got all those acronyms covered? I imagine COT stands for currency options trading?
COT Commitment Of Traders (who is positioned short or long in the market)
TF Timeframe
PB Pin Bar
PA Price Action

Public Price Action thread found in my signature or directly here:
http://forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=2331

There's also a seperate thread on only pin bars / PDF explaining them by "jotty" here
http://forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=6721

Hope this helps
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #92
  • Sep 2, 2007 8:40pm Sep 2, 2007 8:40pm
It does indeed, thanks
  • #93
  • Sep 2, 2007 10:13pm Sep 2, 2007 10:13pm
Hello I have a specific question.

"Commercials" are trades made by corporate accounts (excluding LARGE funds,) while "speculator" trades made by individual investors? I'm trying to understand what those words mean in the CBOT context.

Interesting thread.....
  • #94
  • Sep 2, 2007 10:36pm Sep 2, 2007 10:36pm
Quoting tdion
Hello I have a specific question.

"Commercials" are trades made by corporate accounts (excluding LARGE funds,) while "speculator" trades made by individual investors? I'm trying to understand what those words mean in the CBOT context.

Interesting thread.....
commercials are companies that utilize the financial market to accommodate their day-to-day business activities. These companies are huge multinationals with such a big influence on the market that they're required to report their positions to the goverment.
Speculators are hedge funds, individual traders, investment banks that make money off currency speculation. They're relatively small compared to commercials.
Take a report.
  • #95
  • Sep 4, 2007 12:39am Sep 4, 2007 12:39am
Ive done quite a bit of reading about your method of investing/trading/speculating whatever you wanna call it, and I have to say its got a lot of pros... in fact its the best way that i've seen so far. The only thing that I dont like about it is the fact that its a very slow method. Im impatient in the sense that this longer term form of investing sounds horribly slow. Now before you go telling me its not for everyone... I know that, but theres 2 forms of reasoning for men as you guys know... the first is with your balls and then with your heads... now this may seem like I'm sidetracking but what I'm trying to say is that I enjoy the intraday type trading (even though I haven't even started paper trading yet and have just been reading up and researching the forex market and trying to find the best ways to make money)... yet my brain tells me that this is the best form of investing and I'm leaning more towards it BUT my question is... I know becomming a millionare overnight on any market is like gambling but lets say your undercapitalised (which is obviously not good and you should manage your risk according to your account size etc etc)... my question is whats best form for me at the moment? Trade intraday (assuming its profitable for me) or trade this method and receive smaller returns yet ones that are of greater certainty? I guess what I'm asking is what sort of pip gains are we looking at here on a weekly monthly and yearly basis? Obviously at the end of the day it all comes down to your personal money managment etc but I just want to see what other people are getting from this method to see how happy I would be with it.
  • #96
  • Sep 4, 2007 2:09pm Sep 4, 2007 2:09pm
Quoting Atomic_Sheep
Ive done quite a bit of reading about your method of investing/trading/speculating whatever you wanna call it, and I have to say its got a lot of pros... in fact its the best way that i've seen so far. The only thing that I dont like about it is the fact that its a very slow method. Im impatient in the sense that this longer term form of investing sounds horribly slow. Now before you go telling me its not for everyone... I know that, but theres 2 forms of reasoning for men as you guys know... the first is with your balls and then with your heads... now this may seem like I'm sidetracking but what I'm trying to say is that I enjoy the intraday type trading (even though I haven't even started paper trading yet and have just been reading up and researching the forex market and trying to find the best ways to make money)... yet my brain tells me that this is the best form of investing and I'm leaning more towards it BUT my question is... I know becomming a millionare overnight on any market is like gambling but lets say your undercapitalised (which is obviously not good and you should manage your risk according to your account size etc etc)... my question is whats best form for me at the moment? Trade intraday (assuming its profitable for me) or trade this method and receive smaller returns yet ones that are of greater certainty? I guess what I'm asking is what sort of pip gains are we looking at here on a weekly monthly and yearly basis? Obviously at the end of the day it all comes down to your personal money managment etc but I just want to see what other people are getting from this method to see how happy I would be with it.
well if you're undercapitalized try trading with Oanda, start with 0.1 mini lot. 1 pip eur/usd = $0.10. That should allow u to trade longer term and sustain larger stop loss. The best way to go is to demo first. Then put in maybe $500, trade 0.1 mini lots. That should do it.

I personally do not trade intra day because I have no idea where the market is going during the day. But by following commercials I have a pretty good idea of where the market wants to go.

Regarding pip gains, its possible to get 1000+ pips out of single trade that lasts about 3 weeks. Refer to EUR/USD daily chart with the COT chart. And price action of couse.
Take a report.
  • #97
  • Sep 10, 2007 12:55am Sep 10, 2007 12:55am
Quoting CateFul
More to the power of the commercials.
This trade could yield 400+ pips just by following the commercials, blindly.
Hi Cateful
I've just wondered How to read the Chart after we got the COT Chart on Friday. We only see the Commercial or see the trend for next week Prediction?

Thanks alot.
  • #98
  • Sep 10, 2007 3:07pm Sep 10, 2007 3:07pm
Quoting B4dak
Hi Cateful
I've just wondered How to read the Chart after we got the COT Chart on Friday. We only see the Commercial or see the trend for next week Prediction?

Thanks alot.
Follow the commercials. They long, you long. They short, you short.
Take a report.
  • #99
  • Sep 11, 2007 12:23pm Sep 11, 2007 12:23pm
Hi cateful,
and just to see if Im getting this, looking at an aussie chart we see commercials are long and small specs extremely short, so we would be looking for long plays...same with usdjpy, coms are short jpy small specs long trend is long so we are looking for long entries...am I getting it? thanks, great thread, Raz
Never say never.
  • #100
  • Sep 11, 2007 1:39pm Sep 11, 2007 1:39pm
Yes you're right.
But remember these are trades that could last weeks!
So if you see some drawdown do not panic. There will be ups/downs.
Despite all the USD/JPY bearish outlooks posted here I'm still going to take long. And once I'm in I don't look at the position until the end of the week.

I just want to point out that Urchin is taking short term daily swings off a long term weekly trend. I don't think they can be compared. No offense. pips are pips.
Take a report.
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