Hiren Garasondia's Research Gold and Silver

*Gold & Silver Crash After Strong US Jobs Data, Is a Rebound Rally Next?*

Precious metals such as gold and silver witnessed extreme volatility today following the release of the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report. Gold fell near 3%, while silver declined nearly 7%, leaving traders uncertain about the next direction of the market.

The sharp decline came after stronger than expected US employment data increased expectations that the Federal Reserve may maintain higher interest rates for longer. The US economy added 172000 jobs in May, significantly above market expectations of 85000, while the unemployment rate remained stable. The strong labor market data reduced hopes for near term rate cuts and pressured precious metals.

Meanwhile, the Gold and Silver Ratio surged above $63.192, highlighting silver's underperformance compared to gold. Currency markets also experienced heightened volatility after the data release.

*Following the NFP report:*

Gold August Futures traded near $4369.62 per ounce
Silver July Futures traded around $68.945 per ounce

According to my view, the market may now be approaching an oversold condition. After such a sharp decline, profit booking in sell positions could emerge, potentially supporting a recovery move in both gold and silver during the coming sessions.

*Intraday and Next Week Strategy for Gold and Silver Futures:*

Buy Gold August Futures
Buy Range: $4360 - $4370
Targets: $4460 $4490 $4510
Stop Loss: As per risk management

Buy Silver July Futures
Buy Range: $68.750 - $68.950
Targets: $72 $73 $74
Stop Loss: As per risk management

*Conclusion:*

1. The strong US jobs report has created significant volatility across precious metals and currency markets.
2. However, after the recent sharp correction, traders may watch for signs of profit booking in short positions and a potential rebound from lower levels.
3. Volatility is expected to remain elevated, making disciplined risk management and position sizing essential.
4. Traders should closely monitor upcoming economic data and market sentiment for confirmation of the next major move.

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MCX Gold & Silver Under Pressure After Strong US Jobs Data, Is a Recovery Rally Ahead?

MCX gold and silver prices remained under pressure today, with both metals opening gap down and extending losses during the morning European session. The primary reason behind the recent weakness in precious metals continues to be the stronger than expected US employment data released last Friday, which has forced traders to scale back expectations for near term Federal Reserve rate cuts.

During the morning European session:
MCX Gold August Futures traded near ₹152712 per 10 grams
MCX Silver July Futures traded around ₹239064 per kg

The strong US labor market data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates elevated for a longer period. Higher interest rates generally reduce the appeal of non yielding assets such as gold and silver, resulting in continued selling pressure across precious metals.

Geopolitical Tensions vs Interest Rates:
Under normal circumstances, geopolitical tensions support gold and silver prices as investors seek safe haven assets. Ongoing developments involving Iran, Israel, and the United States have increased uncertainty in global markets.

However, traders are currently focusing more on monetary policy than geopolitical risks. Unless tensions escalate significantly, expectations of higher for longer US interest rates are likely to remain the dominant factor influencing bullion prices. This is one of the key reasons why gold has declined despite continuing Middle East tensions.

US Dollar Index and Precious Metals:
Another important factor to monitor is the US Dollar Index (DXY), which has recently shown signs of weakness near the $99.70 level.
Historically:
Strong US Dollar = Weak Gold and Silver
Weak US Dollar = Strong Gold and Silver
If the dollar continues to weaken during the US session, profit booking in existing short positions could support a recovery in precious metals.

Intraday Strategy Gold and Silver:
According to my view, the recent sharp decline may trigger profit booking from lower levels, potentially leading to a short term rebound in both gold and silver prices.
Buy MCX Gold August Futures
Buy Range: ₹152700 - ₹152800
Stop Loss: ₹152000
Targets: ₹154600 ₹154800 ₹155000

Buy MCX Silver July Futures
Buy Range: ₹238800 - ₹239200
Stop Loss: ₹237000
Targets: ₹251100 ₹252100 ₹253100

Conclusion:
1. Gold and silver remain under pressure due to strong US economic data and expectations of prolonged higher interest rates. However, after the recent sharp correction, profit booking in short positions and a weaker US dollar could support a recovery rally.
2. Traders should closely monitor US market sentiment, Federal Reserve expectations, and currency movements, as these factors are likely to determine the next major move in precious metals. Volatility is expected to remain high, creating potential trading opportunities for both gold and silver.

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*Gold & Silver at 11 Week Lows - What Next?* Gold and silver prices have come under significant pressure over the past several sessions, with both metals falling to their lowest levels in nearly 11 weeks. The primary trigger behind this decline has been the stronger-than-expected US employment data, which has forced traders to reassess expectations for Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts. The latest US Non-Farm Payrolls report showed the economy added 172000 jobs, nearly double market expectations. A strong labor market reduces the urgency for the Federal Reserve to cut rates, leading investors to expect higher interest rates for a longer period. As a result, US Treasury yields remain elevated, which generally reduces the attractiveness of non-yielding assets such as gold and silver. *Geopolitical Tensions vs. Interest Rates:* Normally, geopolitical tensions support gold prices because investors seek safe haven assets during periods of uncertainty. Recent developments involving Iran, Israel, and the United States have certainly increased geopolitical risks. However, the market is currently giving more weight to monetary policy than geopolitical concerns. Traders appear to believe that unless tensions escalate significantly, the impact of higher interest rates will continue to dominate gold's direction. This explains why gold has declined despite ongoing Middle East tensions. *US Dollar Index and Gold Relationship:* Another important factor is the US Dollar Index (DXY). The dollar has recently shown signs of weakness near the $99.70 level. Historically: Strong Dollar = Weak Gold Weak Dollar = Strong Gold If the dollar continues to weaken during the US session, gold and silver could receive support from short covering and profit booking in sell positions. *Technical Market Structure:* From a technical perspective: Gold August Futures Major Support Zone: $4285 - $4295 Immediate Resistance: $4377 Strong Resistance: $4400 $4425 Silver July Futures Support Zone: $66.250 - $66.350 Resistance Zone: $68.600 $69.000 Markets have become extremely oversold after the recent sharp decline. When markets fall rapidly, traders who hold profitable short positions often book profits, creating temporary recovery rallies. *What Could Happen Before US Market Open?* Three possible scenarios: Scenario 1: Profit Booking Rally (Most Likely) Traders cover short positions. Gold rebounds toward $4377 $4400. Silver recovers toward $68.600 $69.000 Scenario 2: Sideways Consolidation Market waits for fresh US economic data. Gold trades between $4290 - $4320 Silver trades between $66.200 - $67.000 Scenario 3: Further Breakdown If support at $4275 breaks decisively, gold could see another wave of selling. Silver may test lower support zones below $65.600 *Key Events to Watch This Week:* Federal Reserve commentary US inflation expectations Treasury yield movements US Dollar Index direction Middle East geopolitical developments Central bank gold purchases *Conclusion:* 1. The broader trend remains under pressure due to strong US economic data and expectations of higher for longer interest rates. However, after a sharp multi session decline, gold and silver are entering an area where profit booking and short covering rallies become increasingly likely. 2. Traders should remain cautious because volatility remains extremely high. The next major directional move will likely depend on whether the US Dollar weakens further and whether geopolitical tensions intensify enough to revive safe haven demand. 3. Short term outlook: Potential recovery from oversold levels. 4. Medium term outlook: Dependent on Federal Reserve policy expectations and upcoming US economic data. 5. Volatility outlook: Expected to remain very high throughout the week.

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Gold & Silver Multi Week Lows Today: Is a Profit Booking Rally Around the Corner?

Over the past four sessions, precious metals, especially gold and silver, have experienced downward selling pressure. Both Gold August Futures and Silver July Futures opened with downward gaps and intensified the selling pressure during the Asian session, bringing even more volatility to the bullion market.

During trading, Gold August Futures hovered around $4195.51 per ounce, and Silver July Futures hovered around $63.550 per ounce. Silver and gold have both dropped in the last four trading sessions, with silver dropping from $74.380 to $63.550, and gold dropping from $4508 to $4195. Both have dropped over 7% and 14%, respectively.

Losing precious metals has also been attributed to gold and silver losing value due to a stronger US dollar and rising Treasury yields. Losing precious metals has been attributed to gold and silver losing value due to a stronger US dollar, rising Treasury yields, and inflation, and even more so by the expectation that the US Federal Reserve will increase interest rates. The recent round of US strikes on Iran even spurred inflation, as the increased cost of energy undermined gold, and the diminishing of hostilities between Iran and Israel has further depressed gold due to diminished safe haven demand.

Investors are keeping an eye on upcoming US CPI inflation data for more signs of where the Federal Reserve may head with policy changes. Right now, over 70% of investors are predicting rate hikes from the Fed by December. Higher interest rates have a negative impact on non yielding assets, like gold and silver, due to the increased opportunity costs of holding them.

The Gold and Silver Ratio sits around $65.767 range, showing the recent declines have impacted silver more significantly than gold.

Intraday Strategy Gold and Silver Futures:

I believe that after the declines that the market has seen over the past 4 sessions, there will be a buyback of precious metals by short positions before the US market opens.

Buy Gold August Futures
Buy Range: $4186 - $4196
Targets: $4286 $4300 $4320
Stop Loss: As per risk management

Buy Silver July Futures
Buy Range: $63.350 - $63.550
Targets: $65.500 $66.000 $66.500
Stop Loss: As per risk management

Traders are considering averaging to lower levels based on their own risk appetite and money management for their older long positions.

Conclusion:
1. Gold and silver have had a sharp sell off with all the new US data indicating a stronger economy and expectations of an increased interest rate and a stronger dollar.
2. After a sell off with such conviction the market often becomes susceptible to short covering and profit taking on sells.
3. The US data for inflation and the market sentiment are indicators of what the next major movement in precious metals is likely to be. This should be paid close attention to.

MCX Gold Falls Below ₹1.50 Lakh, Silver Drops Over 10% in Four Sessions

Today, the prices of MCX gold and silver were under a lot of selling pressure. This is the day in a row that MCX gold and silver prices have gone down. Both MCX gold and silver started the day with prices and they just kept going down. This shows that people are not very excited about MCX gold and silver now not just in India but all over the world.

The price of Gold August Futures was around ₹149500 for every 10 grams of MCX gold. The price of Silver July Futures was around ₹233400 for every kilogram of silver. MCX gold has fallen from around ₹158500 to ₹149500 and silver has gone down from ₹261892 to ₹233400 in four days. This means MCX gold prices have gone down by than 5.5 percent and silver prices have gone down by almost 10.5 percent.

It is not the Indian market where MCX gold and silver prices are going down. In countries the price of Gold August Futures has gone down from around $4508 to $4195.51 per ounce of MCX gold. The price of Silver July Futures has gone down from $74.380 to $63.550 per ounce of silver.
Because of this the Gold-Silver Ratio has gone up to $65.767. This shows that silver has done worse than MCX gold in the last few days. MCX gold and silver prices are still under a lot of pressure.

Why are gold and silver falling?

There are a reasons for this big drop.

1. The United States economy is doing better than people thought, so now they do not think the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates soon. This means people think the Federal Reserve might not help gold and silver prices.

2. The interest people get from Treasury yields is going up, so it does not make sense to hold gold and silver because they do not pay interest.

3. The US Dollar is staying strong, which is bad for gold and silver prices.

4. People think the Federal Reserve might raise interest rates this year, which would be bad for gold and silver.

5. There is fighting between Iran and Israel, so people do not need gold and silver as much to feel safe.

Market Outlook Before US Open:

I think that after gold and silver have fallen much people might start buying them again to make money or to get out of their old sell orders. This could make gold and silver prices go up a little bit before the US market opens.

Gold and silver might see a rebound because of this. So we might see gold and silver prices go up a bit before the US market opens, which would be good for people who own gold and silver.

MCX, Intraday Strategy for Gold and Silver Futures:

I think it is an idea to buy MCX Gold August Futures. The best time to buy MCX Gold August Futures is when the price is between ₹149400 and ₹149500. If we buy MCX Gold August Futures our targets will be ₹151000 ₹152000 and finally ₹153000.

We can also buy MCX Silver July Futures. The buy range for MCX Silver July Futures is between ₹233000 and ₹233500. Our targets for MCX Silver July Futures will be ₹240000 ₹242000 and finally ₹245000.

The stop loss for MCX Gold August Futures and MCX Silver July Futures will depend on how risk we are willing to take.

The price of gold and silver has gone down a lot because of economic news from the US higher bond yields and the possibility of tighter monetary policy. Gold and silver have gone down so much in just four days so maybe they are now at a low point.

We should keep an eye on what happens with US inflation Treasury yields and the US Dollar Index. If people start selling their positions or the US dollar gets weaker the price of gold and silver might go up again. The market is very volatile now but if the price goes down it might be a good time, for short term traders to buy gold and silver because they might go up again soon.

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SEBI REGISTERED ANALYST

MCX Gold & Silver Extend Recovery Rally: Is More Upside Ahead?

Market Overview:

The price of MCX metals went up today. Both gold and silver started the day with a price and kept going up during the morning in Europe. People who thought gold and silver would do well yesterday were happy to see them bounce back. This happened because some traders closed their positions, which helped keep the prices from going down.

During the morning in Europe:
MCX Gold August Futures were selling for around ₹149569 per 10 grams
MCX Silver July Futures were selling for around ₹241000 per kilogram

Gold and silver had been going down for a while. Now they seem to be getting back on track. The reason they are going up is that some traders are closing their positions and people are feeling more positive about the market.

Why Are Gold and Silver Going Up?
Something big happened when US President Donald Trump said that the United States and Iran might make a peace deal soon. This deal could help open up the Strait of Hormuz which is a very important route for oil ships. If this happens, people will worry less about oil supplies.

But people in Iran are saying that no final deal has been made yet so we are not sure what will happen. With all the uncertainty, the markets are happy about the possibility of a deal:
1. Stock markets around the world went up.
2. People are feeling more positive about taking risks.
3. Traders closed some of their sell positions to make a profit.
4. Gold and silver prices went up because they were selling at low prices before.

Technical Outlook:
From a point of view, gold and silver have bounced back really well from their recent lows. People are still interested in buying gold and silver when their prices go down.

MCX Gold August Futures
Immediate Support: ₹149000 - ₹149300
Resistance Zone: ₹150600 - ₹151000
Major Resistance: ₹152000

MCX Silver July Futures
Immediate Support: ₹240000 - ₹241000
Resistance Zone: ₹245000 - ₹246000
Major Resistance: ₹247000

Intraday Strategy Gold and Silver:
Buy MCX Gold August Futures
Buy Range: ₹149500 - ₹149600
Targets: ₹150600 ₹151000 ₹152000
Stop Loss: This depends on how much risk you are willing to take.

Buy MCX Silver July Futures
Buy Range: ₹240500 - ₹241000
Targets: ₹245000 ₹246000 ₹247000
Stop Loss: This depends on how much risk you are willing to take.

Conclusions:
Gold and silver have made a comeback from their recent lows. This happened because traders made money from their positions, and people started to feel better about the market. They thought that things might get better with Iran and the Middle East.

Gold and silver prices may keep going up. People may want to buy gold and silver when their prices are low. They should keep an eye on what's happening with the US and Iran oil prices, the US dollar and what is going on with the economy.

Things can change quickly in the market. So it is very important to be careful and manage your risks when trading gold and silver.