XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

Great analysis...

The XAUUSD price action on the H4 time frame is sideways below the 4547.07 horizontal support. Although we may still see further southward price engineering to retest an intra-day value area, a northward turnaround is imminent.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

The XAUUSD price on the daily time frame is sideways at the 4547.07 intra-day horizontal resistance, which aligns with the 38.2 fib retracement of the bearish swing traceable to March 2026. There was a feeble bullish attempt to break above the area on Friday. Recent technical prints favour further southward price engineering.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

The XAUUSD price action on the daily time frame went bearish last Friday after a bearish breakdown of the 4547.07 horizontal support earlier in the week. Presently, it is tackling the 4340.12 longer-term horizontal support area. Recent technical prints favour further southward price engineering.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

Good chart and clear reasoning.
I agree that the daily structure became weaker after the break below the 4547 area. For me, the important point now is how XAUUSD behaves around 4340.
I would not treat 4340 as only a support line, but more as a decision area.
If price accepts below 4340, then the bearish case becomes much stronger and the market may start searching for the next lower liquidity/support zone.
But if gold rejects 4340 strongly and starts reclaiming structure above it, then the breakdown may turn into a trap or at least a deeper correction inside the larger move.
So my view is:
1. 4547 breakdown changed the daily tone.
2. 4340 is the next important reaction area.
3. Acceptance below 4340 favors continuation lower.
4. Strong rejection from 4340 means caution for shorts.
Gold can move very fast around these long-term levels, so I prefer to wait for reaction and acceptance instead of predicting the level blindly.
Just my view. Trade safe.

The XAUUSD price action on the H4 time frame went sideways at the 4218.83 intra-day horizontal resistance after a bullish retest. The location of price action is very close to the low of the bearish swing traceable to March 2026. Technically, a northward pullback or rotation of price action is imminent. However, we may still see a southward liquidity sweep before a northward rotation.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Structure
Price rejected the 4272–4378 recovery area and then sold off aggressively. The recent bounce into the 4200 area failed, and price is now rolling back down. That keeps the structure as lower highs and lower lows, which supports bearish continuation.
Pattern and candlestick read
This looks like a bear flag / failed recovery pattern. Price bounced from the lows, but the bounce could not reclaim the previous breakdown area. The latest candles show bearish rejection after a weak pullback, meaning sellers are still defending rallies.
Key levels
Resistance:
4190–4200
4236–4272
4307–4343
Support:
4130
4094
4058
4023
Best trade plan
Preferred short setup:
Sell a pullback into 4190–4200 if price rejects.
Entry: 4190–4200
Stop loss: 4237
TP1: 4130
TP2: 4094
TP3: 4058–4023
Breakdown setup:
If H4 closes below 4130, wait for a retest of 4130–4140 from underneath and sell rejection.
Targets: 4094, then 4058, then 4023.
Invalidation
The bearish setup weakens if H4 reclaims 4236.
It becomes much weaker if price gets back above 4272, because that would break the immediate lower-high structure.
ForexFactory style paragraph
XAUUSD H4 remains bearish after rejecting the recovery zone and continuing to print lower highs and lower lows. The move from the 4257 sell signal has already played out strongly, so I do not want to chase fresh shorts near 4163. The structure looks like a bear flag / failed recovery pattern, with sellers defending the 4190–4200 and 4236–4272 resistance zones. I prefer selling a pullback into 4190–4200 with bearish rejection, targeting 4130, 4094, and 4058–4023. A sustained reclaim above 4236 would weaken the bearish setup.

Gold (XAUUSD) tapped into a key resistance zone around 4156–4157 and rejected sharply.

Price is now testing a short-term support level.

On the M1 I have an open sell at 36.35 spread.

Watching to see if this support holds or breaks - a clean break below could extend the move down. Managing risk tight here.

Anyone else positioned short on Gold today?

The XAUUSD price action on the H4 time frame is presently retesting the 4088.48 intra-day horizontal resistance after the bullish challenge of the bearish flip of area on June 24. Nevertheless, we cannot rule out further southward price action or bearish liquidity sweep to an intra-day of value in the early part of this week. But the area is near the low of the bearish swing traceable to March 1, 2026. And, technically, the area is susceptible to a northward rotation of price action.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP