Morning Briefing

05 Jun 26. 0832 IST or 0302 GMT or 2302 EST

Good Morning

Most currencies are stable. Dollar index is holding below 99.50 just now but a decisive break on the upside can take it towards 100-100.50. Euro can test 1.1575 but a break below that will drag it lower towards 1.15/14. EURINR could rise to 111.85-112 soon before facing rejection from there. EURJPY and USDJPY could trade within 185-186 and 159.00-160.50 respectively while USDCNY may rise to test 6.7850 before facing rejection from there. Aussie and Pound can trade within 0.72-0.71 and 1.34-1.3550 while USDINR can face rejection near 96 from where a fall back towards 95.75-95.50 can be possible.

The US Treasury Yields seem to be struggling to get a strong follow-through rise. That keeps alive the danger of seeing an extended fall breaking below their support. We will have to wait and see. The unemployment numbers today will need a close watch, and it may give some cue for the yields to move either way. The German Yields are managing to sustain higher after the recent bounce. But they have to rise further from here to go higher and avoid falling back again. The 10Yr GoI has dipped below 7%. That keeps the door open to see one more leg of fall before reversing higher. The RBI monetary policy meeting outcome is due today.

Global equities remain mixed, with Dow rebounding sharply on ceasefire-related optimism and likely to test 52000 in the near term. DAX remains weak below 25000 and can decline further towards 24500-24000. Nifty continues to hold above 23,300 and can extend gains towards 23,600. Nikkei has slipped below 67000 and risks a further decline towards 66000-65000 if the weakness persists. Shanghai is holding above key support near 4050 and can bounce towards 4100-4125 while this support remains intact.

Crude prices have fallen sharply on hopes of easing geopolitical tensions, but with uncertainty over the ceasefire's durability, the broader outlook remains positive for a rise towards $100 in the coming weeks. Gold and Silver continue to weaken towards the lower end of their respective $4400-$4600 and $70-$80 ranges. Copper is holding above key support near $6.40, and a rebound towards $6.70 or higher remains possible if this level holds. Natural Gas has strengthened in line with expectations and can rise further towards $3.50 in the coming sessions.

Read full morning briefing @ https://kshitij.com/morning-briefing

08 Jun 26. 0811 IST or 0241 GMT or 2241 EST

Good Morning

The Dollar index surged to 100.109 after US NFP data came out higher than expected on Friday, posting 172k and thereby raising chances of a rate hike by the FED. But we may expect a dip from anywhere between 100.10-100.50. Euro can bounce back while above 1.15 to prevent further decline to 1.14. EURINR and EURJPY have risen from Friday’s lows and have scope to rise in the near term towards 111 and 185/185.25, respectively. USDJPY continues its slow uptrend while USDCNY may rise to test 6.80/83 before facing rejection from there again towards 6.77. Aussie and Pound can rise to 0.71 and 1.34+ from current levels. USDINR fell sharply on positive measures by the RBI and the Indian government to induce foreign capital inflow, but whether that weighs over the overall strength in the US Dollar will have to be seen. But we may expect a higher spot towards 95.25/30 at least, if not more.


The US Treasury Yields have risen sharply after strong jobs data release on Friday increased the hopes for a rate hike. The US NFP rose by 172K (Market Expectation: 95K) and the unemployment rate remained stable at 4.3% The rise is getting support from oil price rise in the early trades today. A break above the immediate resistance can boost the momentum and take the yields higher. The chances of the fall indicated last week have been negated. The German yields are struggling to get a strong follow-through rise. That keeps them vulnerable to fall from here. We will have to wait and see. The 10Yr GoI has dipped further. It can fall more in line with our expectation before reversing higher.


Global equities remain under pressure. Dow and DAX are weakening in line with expectations and can decline further towards 50500-50000 and 24250-24000 respectively. Nikkei has fallen sharply amid Middle East uncertainty and higher interest rate expectations, with scope for a further decline towards 63000. Shanghai also remains weak below 4000 and can fall towards 3900-3850. Nifty is relatively resilient and can rise towards 23,600 while holding above 23,200.


Crude prices have opened higher after Friday's decline, and the broader outlook remains positive for a rise towards $100 in the coming weeks. Gold and Silver have turned sharply weaker following stronger-than-expected US jobs data and can decline further towards $4300-$4200 and $65-$60 respectively if current weakness persists. Copper has broken below key support and may fall towards $6.20-$6.00. Natural Gas has pulled back from recent highs, but the downside appears limited to $3, with a broader $3-$3.50 range likely to hold for some time.

Read full morning briefing @ https://kshitij.com/morning-briefing

09 Jun 26. 0819 IST or 0249 GMT or 2249 EST

Good Morning

The Dollar index has not been able to sustain above 100 and has fallen back to head towards 99, while the Euro has bounced back and could head towards 1.16 or higher soon. EURINR looks bearish below 111, while the EURJPY could test 186 while above 185. USDJPY continues its slow uptrend while USDCNY looks bearish towards 6.76/75 as it could not rise to test 6.80 on the upside. Aussie and Pound can rise to 0.71 and 1.35 from current levels. USDINR rose sharply yesterday to 95.69 but may come off sharply today again as the RBI has announced USDINR FX Swap for FCNR deposits (at 0%) and for ECBs raised by the PSUs (at 1.5%) in line with the measures announced on Friday to attract foreign capital. This should be positive for the Rupee and could take it towards 95-94.50.

The US Treasury Yields continue to move up. As mentioned yesterday, a rise above their immediate resistance can strengthen the momentum and take them higher. The German Yields have moved back up. If this sustains, then more rise can be seen. That in turn can negate the danger of them falling back. The 10Yr GoI is coming down much faster than expected. It has room to fall further from here.

Dow is holding above key support near 50700 and could bounce back, but a break lower would open the way towards 50500-50000. DAX remains weak and can decline further towards 24250-24000, while Nikkei has resumed its decline and may fall towards 63000. Shanghai continues to look bearish below 4000 and can decline towards 3900-3850. Nifty can recover towards 23400 while holding above 23000.

Crude prices have weakened contrary to expectations, but the key question remains whether they break below $90 or hold and resume their rise towards $100. Gold and Silver remain under pressure below $4400 and $70 respectively, keeping the downside open towards $4300-$4200 and $65-$60. Copper has rebounded from recent lows and, while above $6.20, can recover towards $6.50-$6.60 instead of falling towards $6.00. Natural Gas has dipped, but the downside appears limited to $3.00, with a broader $3.00-$3.50 range likely to hold for now.

Read full morning briefing @ https://kshitij.com/morning-briefing

10 Jun 26. 0808 IST or 0238 GMT or 2238 EST

Good Morning

The Dollar index may dip to 99.5-99, while the Euro has scope to test 1.16/17 while above 1.15. EURINR looks bearish below 111, while the EURJPY could test 186 while above 185. USDJPY continues its slow uptrend while USDCNY looks bearish towards 6.76/75 while below resistance at 6.80. Aussie and Pound can rise to 0.71-0.7150 and 1.35 respectively from current levels. USDINR dipped to 95.2275 yesterday. There is scope for a further dip to 95 soon.

The US Treasury Yields have come down sharply. A further dip from here can drag them lower. They have to rise back immediately and breach their resistance to go higher. The US CPI data release today will need a watch to see if it is providing the needed trigger to rise back. The German yields are holding higher. A follow-through rise from here can take them further higher and avoid falling back. The 10Yr GoI has come down as expected and is at an intermediate support. An extended fall is possible if the yield fails to bounce back immediately.

Dow and DAX remains vulnerable to further declines towards 50000 and 24000 respectively. Nifty continues to show resilience and can rise towards 23,400-23,600 while holding above 23,000. Nikkei remains range-bound and needs a break below 64000 to trigger a fall towards 63000. Shanghai is struggling below the key 4000 resistance and, unless it breaks higher, a decline towards 3900-3850 remains likely.

Crude prices are testing the key $90 level, and a sustained break lower could drag prices towards $85, while holding above it may lead to a recovery towards $100 in the coming weeks. Gold has fallen to near $4200 as expected and risks a further decline towards $4100-$4000 if this level breaks. Silver remains weak and can extend losses towards $62-$60. Copper is holding above immediate support and can recover towards $6.50-$6.60 if this level remains intact. Natural Gas continues to weaken towards $3.00, with the broader $3.00-$3.50 range likely to hold for now.

Read full morning briefing @ https://kshitij.com/morning-briefing

11 Jun 26. 0835 IST or 0305 GMT or 2305 EST

Good Morning

The Dollar index may dip to 99.5-99 on a break below 99.75 while the Euro has scope to test 1.16/17 while above 1.15. Markets expect a 25bps rate hike by the ECB today. EURINR looks bearish below 111 towards 110-109, while the EURJPY could test 186 while above 185. USDJPY continues its slow uptrend to 161 while USDCNY looks bearish towards 6.76/75 while below resistance at 6.80. Aussie and Pound can rise to 0.71-0.7150 and 1.35 respectively from current levels. USDINR dipped to 95.0850 yesterday. There is scope for a further dip to 95-94.80 while below 95.50.


The US Treasury Yields have risen back well. The inflation data release has aided this bounce back. However, the yields have to rise past their immediate resistance in order to gain strength and go further higher. The US CPI rose 4.17% (YoY) in May from 3.78% in April. High inflation is likely to aid in limiting the downside for the Treasury Yields going forwards. The German Yields have moved up. A further rise from here can take them higher and will avoid the chances of falling back. The ECB meeting outcome today evening will need a close watch. The 10Yr GoI has bounced back well from its support. Need to see if it is getting a strong follow-through rise from here to avoid the danger of seeing an extended fall. We will have to wait and watch.


Global equities remain under pressure following higher US CPI and renewed Middle East tensions. Dow and DAX have weakened sharply and could decline further towards 49500-49000 and 23500 respectively if key support levels are broken. Nikkei has turned bearish after breaking below 64000 and can fall further towards 62000. Shanghai continues to weaken in line with expectations and may decline towards 3900-3850. Nifty remains relatively stable but needs to hold above 23150 to recover towards 23400 over the week.


Crude prices have rebounded on renewed geopolitical tensions and can rise further towards $100 in the coming weeks. Gold has weakened sharply after falling below $4200 and could decline further towards $3900-$3800 if it breaks below $4000. Silver remains bearish and can extend losses towards $62-$60. Copper has also turned weak and may decline further towards $6.10-$6.00. Natural Gas is holding above $3.00 and is likely to remain within the broader $3.00-$3.50 range for some time.


Read full morning briefing @ https://kshitij.com/morning-briefing

12 Jun 26. 0830 IST or 0300 GMT or 2300 EST

Good Morning

ECB hiked key rates by 25bps with a hawkish tone for inflation and expected weaker economic growth owing to higher energy prices and weaker confidence. It is likely to keep rates unchanged in its July-26 meeting. Although the rate hike was as expected and is positive for the Euro in the near term, weaker growth expectations have kept the Euro strength limited just now. A consolidation within 1.15-1.16 looks possible for the near term. The Dollar index may rise while above immediate support at 99.50. EURINR could be bearish while below immediate resistance near 110.75/111. EURJPY could test 186 before rejection while USDJPY is headed towards 161. USDCNY looks bearish towards 6.76/75 while below 6.78. Aussie can rise to 0.71-0.7150 while Pound can move to 1.3250 before rising back towards 1.3550. USDINR needs to hold below 96 for hopes of a decline towards 95.50/95 to keep alive.

The US Treasury Yields have come down sharply. A fall in oil price after the US calling off the strikes on Iran has dragged the yields lower. The yields can fall more from here to test their support. Thereafter a bounce is possible again. The German Yields have also come down failing to sustain the bounce. That keeps the door open to see more fall again. The ECB raised the interest rates by 25 bps in its meeting yesterday. The rate hike was in line with market expectation and was already priced in the market. So, it did not aid the yields to go higher. The 10Yr GoI has turned down again. That keeps it vulnerable to break the immediate support and see an extended fall.

Global equities have rebounded sharply as easing Middle East tensions and improving risk sentiment supported markets. Dow, DAX and Nikkei have recovered from recent lows and can extend gains further in the near term. Shanghai has opened with a gap up and can rise towards 4050-4100 while above 4000. Nifty remains above key support near 23150 and can bounce back towards 23400-23600 if the positive sentiment persists.

Crude prices remain under pressure as easing Middle East tensions have reduced concerns over supply disruptions. However, a rebound towards $95-$100 remains possible if current support levels hold. Gold and Silver have bounced back sharply after testing key support levels. The downside may be limited for now, with scope for a recovery towards $4300-$4400 and $70-$72 respectively. Copper has also rebounded from support near $6.20 and can rise towards $6.50-$6.60. Natural Gas continues to hold above $3.00 and is likely to remain within the broader $3.00-$3.50 range.


Read full morning briefing @ https://kshitij.com/morning-briefing

15 Jun 26. 0815 IST or 0245 GMT or 2245 EST

Good Morning

President Trump announced that the deal with Iran is complete and he authorises the toll-free opening of the Strait of Hormuz and removal of the US Naval blockade. While the agreement is made, it is expected to be signed on Friday to take effect. The Forex market looks stable and could react slowly to the positivity around the news as Iran still expresses its mistrust on the US. The Dollar Index is trading just above 99.55 which needs to break to fall lower while Euro has scope to rise to 1.17 on a sustained rise above 1.16. EURINR can decline to 110/109 while EURJPY has resistance at 186 which could hold and produce a rejection. USDJPY is likely to trade within the 159-161 range. USDCNY looks bearish towards 6.75 while Aussie can test 0.71-0.7150 before falling off from there later. Pound can move to 1.3550 before falling from there towards 1.3250-1.3200. USDINR is likely to open with a gap down but it needs to break below 94.80 for hopes of a decline towards 94.50 or lower. Watch price action today.

The US Treasury and the German Yields have come down sharply. The US and Iran agreeing for a peace deal has dragged the oil price lower. That is weighing on the yields. The Treasury yields are coming close to their support. Failure to bounce back from there can trigger an extended fall. The German yields on the other hand have room to fall more from here. The 10Yr GoI has dipped below the support as expected. While this sustains, the yield can fall more from here.

Global equities have surged sharply after President Trump announced a peace agreement with Iran, boosting risk sentiment across markets. Dow and DAX have moved higher in line with improving optimism and can rise further towards 53000 and 25500 respectively. Nifty can see a gap up opening and has scope to rise towards 24000 in the coming sessions. Nikkei has exceeded expectations and, if it breaks above 70000, can advance towards 70500-71000. Shanghai has also strengthened on the positive sentiment and can rise further towards 4100-4150.

Crude prices have fallen sharply after Trump announced a peace agreement between the US and Iran, with the Strait of Hormuz expected to reopen, easing concerns over supply disruptions. Brent and WTI need to sustain below $85 to extend losses towards $75-$70. Gold and Silver have recovered from recent lows and can rise further towards $4500-$4600 and $72-$74 respectively. Copper has bounced back above $6.50 and can extend gains towards $6.70-$6.75. Natural Gas remains weak but is holding above key support near $3.00, keeping the broader $3.00-$3.50 range intact.

Read full morning briefing @ https://kshitij.com/morning-briefing

16 Jun 26. 0741 IST or 0211 GMT or 2211 EST

Good Morning

The Dollar index trades higher above 99.50 after a stronger US IIP data release yesterday. While the index looks bullish above 99.50, Euro may fall back to 1.15. EURINR can test 109 before bouncing back to higher levels of 111-112 while the EURJPY could test resistance at 186. Thereafter it would be crucial to see which way the price moves. USDJPY continues its slow uptrend to 161 while USDCNY looks bearish towards 6.75 while below resistance at 6.80. Aussie and Pound can rise to 0.71-0.7150 and 1.3550 respectively from current levels. USDINR rose from 94.45 to close higher at 94.72. A sustained rise can take it back to 95+ in the near term. Watche price action today near 95, if seen.

The US Treasury Yields have risen back sharply. The support has held very well. A strong follow-through rise from here will ease the downside pressure and take them further higher. The US Fed meeting outcome tomorrow will be important to watch to see if there is any change in their interest rate path for the rest of the year. The German Yields have come down further. They have room to test their support before reversing higher again. The 10Yr GoI remains lower. Any bounce will be short-lived. There is room to fall more from here to test its support and then possibly reverse higher again.

Global equities remain supported by positive sentiment surrounding the expected US-Iran agreement. Dow continues to trade near record highs and can rise towards 52500-53000 while above 51000. DAX remains constructive above 24500 and can advance towards 25250-25500. Nifty needs to hold above 23750 to attempt another breakout above 24000. Nikkei remains bullish towards 70500-71000 while above 68000. Shanghai continues to strengthen and can rise further towards 4125-4150.

Crude prices remain under pressure as Brent and WTI continue to trade below $85. If they sustain below this level and the expected US-Iran MoU signing proceeds smoothly, a further decline towards $75-$70 becomes more likely. Gold and Silver have recovered from recent lows and can rise towards $4500-$4600 and $72-$74 respectively in the near term. Copper has seen a minor dip, but the broader outlook remains positive for a rise towards $6.70-$6.75. Natural Gas is likely to remain within the broad $3.00-$3.50 range for some time.

Read full morning briefing @ https://kshitij.com/morning-briefing

17 Jun 26. 0831 IST or 0301 GMT or 2301 EST

Good Morning

The Dollar index has dipped and could test 99 while Euro has moved up well above 1.16 which if sustains can take it towards 1.1675. EURINR can test 109 before bouncing back to higher levels of 110.50 while the EURJPY is attempting to sustain above 186 which if succeeds can rise higher towards 188-189. USDJPY continues to trade within 159.70-160.70 region. Weakness in the dollar index if seen can pull down USDJPY towards 159.50-159. USDCNY looks bearish towards 6.75. Aussie and Pound can rise to 0.71-0.7150 and 1.3550 respectively from current levels with downside likely to be limited to 0.70 and 1.34 respectively. USDINR needs to sustain a break below 94.50 to decline towards 94.05 in the coming sessions. Our expectation of a rise to 95 mentioned yesterday may not happen.

The US Treasury Yields have come down again. They can dip further to retest their key support. Whether they manage to sustain above their support or not will determine the next direction of move. That may largely depend on the outcome of the Fed meeting tonight. Their economic projections will need a close watch to see their future policy path. The Bank of Japan increased the interest rate by 25 bps points yesterday. The German Yields are coming down in line with our expectation. They can fall more to test their support. The 10Yr GoI has turned down again failing to sustain the bounce. That keeps intact our bearish view to see more fall.

Global equities remain supported by positive risk sentiment. Dow has reached our expected level of 52500 and can rise further towards 53000. DAX remains constructive above 24500 and can advance towards 25250-25500. Nifty is holding above its key support near 23750 and could break above 24000 to rise towards 24250-24500. Nikkei has moved above 70000 in line with expectations and can extend gains towards 70500-71000. Shanghai needs a sustained break above 4100 to strengthen further and target 4125-4150.

Crude prices continue to weaken in line with expectations. Brent and WTI can decline towards $75 and $70 respectively in the near term. Gold remains below $4400, but the broader outlook stays positive for a rise towards $4500-$4600. Silver can extend gains towards $72-$74, while Copper remains bullish and can rise further towards $6.70-$6.75. Natural Gas has bounced back and is likely to remain within the broader $3.00-$3.50 range for some time.


Read full morning briefing @ https://kshitij.com/morning-briefing

18 Jun 26. 0814 IST or 0244 GMT or 2244 EST

Good Morning

The FOMC kept rates unchanged but revised expectations of inflation to higher levels cutting the growth forecasts lower. Hawkish comments boosted the Dollar index taking it above 100. There can be scope of trade between 100-101 with series of resistances in the region. Euro has scope to trade within 1.1450-1.16 while EURINR needs to sustain above 109 now to avoid another dip below the level and rise back instead towards 109.5-110. EURJPY may test 183 before rising back towards 186 later. USDJPY may trade within the 160-161 region. USDCNY can test 6.78 before coming off towards 6.76/75 again. Aussie and Pound looks bearish for the very near term. USDINR may open with a gap up today but may later fall towards 94 in the coming days.

The US Treasury Yields have surged at the near-end (2Yr and 5Yr) and has dipped at the far-end (30Yr). The 10Yr Yield has also gone up. The US Federal Reserve’s forecast showing a possible rate hike this year has triggered this rise in the near-end yields. The Fed kept the rates unchanged in this meeting in line with the market expectation. On the charts, the 10Yr can rise more on a break above its immediate resistance. The 30Yr can dip more before reversing higher. The German Yields have come down further. There is room to dip further. The 10Yr GoI remains lower. It can fall more from here.

Global equities remain supported by optimism surrounding the expected signing of the US-Iran MoU and improving risk sentiment. Dow continues to trade near record highs and can rise towards 52500-53000. Nifty has broken above 24000 and can extend gains towards 24250-24500. Nikkei remains strong above 71000 and can rise further towards 71500-72000. DAX and Shanghai are also showing positive momentum and can advance towards 25250-25500 and 4125-4150 respectively.

Crude prices continue to weaken as the expected signing of the US-Iran MoU and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz have eased concerns over supply disruptions. Brent and WTI remain bearish and can decline further towards $75-$70 and $70 respectively. Gold is holding above key support and can rise towards $4500-$4600, while Silver needs a sustained break above $70 to target $72-$74. Copper remains constructive above $6.40 and can rise towards $6.70-$6.75. Natural Gas continues to trade within its broader $3.00-$3.50 range.

Read full morning briefing @ https://kshitij.com/morning-briefing

19 Jun 26. 0757 IST or 0227 GMT or 2227 EST

Good Morning

The Dollar index continues to rise and could move up to 101-101.50 while Euro can tank lower to 1.13 if it does not bounce back from 1.14. EURINR needs to bounce from 108 else it can fall to 107.50-107. EURJPY may hold within 183-186 region for now. USDJPY has risen well above 161 and can rise towards 162 soon. USDCNY can test 6.78 before coming off towards 6.76/75 again. Aussie looks bearish while Pound has already plunged to levels below 1.3250 and needs to bounce back to avoid further decline. USDINR may move higher on Dollar strength and Euro weakness. There is crucial support at 94.05 and lower near 93.85/90 which may hold.

The US Treasury Yields remain lower. There is not much room on the downside. Support is there to limit the downside. While the supports hold, the yields are likely to see a good rise going forward. The German yields are stable and lower. They can dip more from here before reversing higher again. The 10Yr GoI is coming down to test its support in line with our expectation. We can expect the yield to bounce back after this fall.

Dow and DAX faces immediate resistances and looks vulnerable to a pullback towards 51000-50000 and 24500-24000 respectively. Nifty has closed above its 21-week moving average and can rise further towards 24400, while Nikkei remains bullish above 70000 with scope to test 72000. Shanghai is holding above 4000 and can extend its rise towards 4150-4200 in the coming weeks.

Brent and WTI remains below $85 and $80 respectively. Brent can decline towards $75-$70, while WTI can fall towards $70-$65, where the downside could be limited and a corrective bounce back may happen. Gold continues to weaken and can decline further towards $4100-$4000, while Silver has reached the $65 level and looks likely to test $60. Copper is approaching key support near $6.25, which needs to hold to keep alive the chances of a rise towards $6.50. Natural Gas remains range-bound between $3.00-$3.50.

Read full morning briefing @ https://kshitij.com/morning-briefing

22 Jun 26. 0818 IST or 0248 GMT or 2248 EST

Good Morning

The Dollar index continues to rise and could move up to 101-101.50 while Euro can tank lower to 1.13 if it does not hold above support at 1.14. EURINR needs to hold above 108 else it can fall to 107.50-107. EURJPY may hold within 183-186 region for now. USDJPY is holding well above 161 and can rise towards 162 soon. USDCNY can test 6.78 before coming off towards 6.76/75 again. Aussie looks bearish to 0.69 while Pound has already plunged to levels below 1.3250 and needs to bounce back to avoid further decline. USDINR may move higher on Dollar strength and Euro weakness. There is crucial support at 94.15 and lower near 94.05 which may hold.

The US Treasury Yields have risen back from their support. A strong follow-through rise from here can take them further higher. The German yields have bounced back well ahead of their support. While this sustains, they can rise more. The 10Yr GoI remains lower and stable. It has room to fall more from here before reversing higher again.

Global equities are showing mixed trends. Dow and DAX remain capped below key resistance zones and are vulnerable to a pullback towards 51000-50000 and 24500-24000 respectively. Nifty needs to sustain above 24000 to resume its upmove towards 24400, failing which it may slip towards 23800-23600. Nikkei remains the strongest among the major indices and could extend gains towards 73500-74000 if it breaks decisively above 73000. Shanghai remains weak in the near term, but while above 4000, the broader outlook stays positive for a rise towards 4150-4200.

Crude prices remain under pressure. Brent trades below $85 and WTI below $80, keeping the bearish outlook intact for a decline towards $75-$70 and $70-$65 respectively. Gold continues to look vulnerable to a fall towards $4100-$4000 before a meaningful reversal is seen. Silver can extend its decline towards $60. Copper is approaching key support near $6.25, which needs to hold to preserve the possibility of a recovery towards $6.50. Natural Gas remains range-bound and is likely to trade within the broader $3.00-$3.50 range for some time.


Read full morning briefing @ https://kshitij.com/morning-briefing

23 Jun 26. 0827 IST or 0257 GMT or 2257 EST

Good Morning

The Dollar index trades above 101 and the Euro near crucial support at 1.14. The Dollar index will have to rise above 101.50 to turn bullish and pave way for 102-104 dragging Euro down towards 1.13/1.12 in the medium term. Else we may expect the paths to reverse from current levels. EURINR can test 107.77-107.50 before bouncing from there while EURJPY may hold within 183-186 region for now. USDJPY tested 161.928 and has fallen back from there. It could test 161 soon. USDCNY can test 6.78 before coming off towards 6.76/75 again. Aussie looks bearish to 0.69 while Pound has already plunged to levels below 1.3250 and needs to bounce back to avoid further decline. USDINR may move higher towards 95 on Dollar strength and Euro weakness.

The US Treasury Yields have moved up further. That keeps the bias positive to go further higher from here to test their key short-term resistance. The German Yields have dipped again. Failure to rise back immediately can drag them to test their support again. That in turn will delay our expected rise. The 10Yr GoI continues to remain stuck in a narrow range. It can fall further from here before a sustained reversal is seen.

Dow and DAX need to break above 53000 and 25500 respectively to target higher levels; otherwise, they remain vulnerable to a pullback. Nifty continues to hold above 24000 and needs a break above 24200 to rise towards 24400. Nikkei has seen a sharp correction after testing recent highs but remains constructive above 70000, with scope for a bounce back towards 73000-74000. Shanghai remains the strongest among the major indices and can extend its rally towards 4250-4300 if it breaks above 4200.

Crude prices continue to decline in line with expectations. Brent and WTI remain bearish and likely to fall further towards $75-$70 and $70-$65 respectively. Gold and Silver also remain under pressure and can decline towards $4100-$4000 and $60 before a meaningful reversal is seen. Copper has tested key support near $6.25-$6.30, and while this region holds, the possibility of a bounce back towards $6.50 remains intact. Natural Gas continues to trade within the broader $3.00-$3.50 range and is likely to remain range-bound for some time.

Read full morning briefing @ https://kshitij.com/morning-briefing

24 Jun 26. 0840 IST or 0310 GMT or 2310 EST

Good Morning

The Dollar index needs to break above 101.5 to slowly move up further while he Euro has already broken below 1.14 and can now fall towards 1.13. EURINR can test 107.77-107.50 before bouncing from there while EURJPY may bounce from 183. USDJPY may hold below 162 with immediate downside limited to 161/160. USDCNY has risen well and can test 6.80 before pausing there again for a dip. Aussie looks bearish to 0.69 while Pound needs to bounce from 1.32 to avoid further decline from here. USDINR may test 95/95.10 before facing rejection from there to fall towards 94.75/50.

The US Treasury Yields have bounced back from their support for the second consecutive day. That keeps intact our overall bullish bias. The yields can rise more in the coming days. The US PCE data release tomorrow will need a close watch. Need to see if it can provide the necessary push for the yields to rise. The German Yields have come down further. The outlook is negative. They can fall more from here. The 10Yr GoI is coming down as expected. It can fall more to test its support and then rise back again.

Global equities have come under pressure following a sharp regional sell-off in Asia, led by a steep decline in South Korea's KOSPI and renewed concerns over the technology and AI sectors. Dow and DAX remain capped below key resistance levels and are vulnerable to declines towards 51000-50000 and 24500 respectively. Nifty has slipped below 24000 and can fall further towards support near 23600, while Nikkei may test the 68000-67000 region before a bounce back is seen. Shanghai is also correcting from recent highs but remains constructive while support near 4070-4050 holds, keeping alive the possibility of a rebound towards 4200.

Commodities continue to weaken in line with expectations. Brent and WTI remain bearish and can decline further towards $75-$70 and $70-$65 respectively. Gold has broken below $4100 and can test $4000 before a reversal is seen, while Silver continues to slide towards $60. Copper has turned significantly weaker after breaking below key support and now has room to decline further towards $6.00-$5.75. Natural Gas remains range-bound and is likely to trade within the broader $3.00-$3.50 range for some time.

Read full morning briefing @ https://kshitij.com/morning-briefing

25 Jun 26. 0835 IST or 0305 GMT or 2305 EST

Good Morning

Strength in the Dollar Index above 101.50 if sustains can lead to further weakness in major currencies against the US Dollar. The Euro is already trading below 1.14 and can now test 1.13 while EURINR may fall to 106/105 on a decisive break below 107. EURJPY may test 183 while USDJPY may try to push itself beyond 162 and rise to 164/165 along with the rise in the Dollar Index itself. USDCNY has risen well and can test 6.83/85 before pausing. Aussie and Pound have already declined and can test 0.68/67 and 1.31/30 respectively. USDINR fell after testing 94.9125. It is likely to hold below 95.00/10 and dip to 94.50/15 in the coming days.

US, German and the Indian yields have all declined. Opening of the Strait of Hormuz and sustained crude prices below $80 has eased inflation fears leading to a slow decline in the yields globally. The US 10Yr and 30Yr Yields can dip to 4.40% and 4.80/75%. The US PCE data release today will need a close watch. Need to see if it can provide the necessary push for the yields to bounce back. The German Yields can fall further from current levels. The 10Yr GoI has declined as well and looks bearish for the next few sessions.

Dow needs a sustained break above 52700-53000 to strengthen the bullish outlook. DAX can decline further towards 24500-24250. Nifty has managed to hold above 24000 but needs to break decisively above 24100 to extend its rally towards 24400-24600. Nikkei has rebounded sharply above 71000 and can rise further towards 73000-74000 while it remains above 69000. Shanghai has also bounced back and can advance towards 4200 in the near term.

Brent and WTI have declined in line with our expectations and remains vulnerable to further declines towards $70 and $65 respectively. Gold has slipped below $4000 and could extend losses towards $3900-$3800. Silver is testing a crucial support near $55, from where a bounce back towards $60 is possible; otherwise, a break lower could trigger a fall towards $50-$45. Copper has broken below $6.00 and can decline further towards $5.80-$5.75. Natural Gas remains range-bound between $3.00-$3.50 for some time.

Read full morning briefing @ https://kshitij.com/morning-briefing

29 Jun 26. 0837 IST or 0307 GMT or 2307 EST

Good Morning

The Dollar index has dipped below 101.50 while Euro has moved up a bit and can re-test 1.14. But whether it would break higher and sustain needs to be seen. EURINR is holding well above 107 and needs to rise back above 108 to rise further. EURJPY has also risen well from 183. The rise of continues can take it slowly towards 184-185 or higher. USDJPY may hold between 162-161 in the near term. USDCNY, if breaks above 6.80 can move up towards 6.83/85. Aussie is expected to rise from current levels while Pound needs to bounce from 1.32 to avoid further decline from here. USDINR may cap it's upside to 95/95.10 while a fall to 94.05-93.85 is likely on a break below 94.15.

The US Treasury Yields have declined sharply and are trading below their support. Failure to rise back immediately can drag them lower in the coming days. The German Yields have come down as expected and are at their support. An extended fall looks likely before a sustained reversal is seen. The 10Yr GoI has declined below our expected levels. There is support near current levels. We can expect the yield to bounce back. We will have to wait and watch.

Dow remains below the key 53000 resistance and is vulnerable to a decline towards 51000-50000 unless it breaks higher. DAX also remains weak below 25500 and can decline further towards 24500-24250. Nifty needs to hold above 24000 to keep the recovery towards 24200-24400 alive. Nikkei and Shanghai have corrected sharply and can test supports near 68000-67500 and 4000-3950 respectively before a bounce back is seen.

Brent and WTI remain weak and can test $70 and $65 respectively before a corrective bounce back is seen. Gold has rebounded after holding above the key $4000 support and can rise towards $4100-$4150. Silver has bounced from support near $55 and can extend its recovery towards $65-$70. Copper has also recovered after holding above $5.90 and can rise further towards $6.25-$6.30. Natural Gas continues to trade within the broader $3.00-$3.50 range.

Read full morning briefing @ https://kshitij.com/morning-briefing

30 Jun 26. 0841 IST or 0311 GMT or 2311 EST

Good Morning

The Dollar index has dipped further leading to a rise in the Euro above 1.14. It would be important to see if the Euro continues to hold above 1.14 or not. EURINR is holding well above 107 and needs to rise back above 108 to rise further. EURJPY has also risen well as expected. The rise, if continues can take it slowly towards 186. USDJPY has broken above 162 and if it holds, it can rise to 163/164. USDCNY has dipped and while below 6.80, it can test 6.78/76. Aussie is expected to rise from current levels while Pound needs to hold well above 1.32 to avoid further decline from here. USDINR may cap it's upside to 95/95.10 while a fall to 94.05-93.85 is likely on a break below immediate support at 94.15.

The US Treasury Yields remain lower but stable after declining below their key support. They can fall more from here and then reverse higher again. The German Yields remain stable around their key support. They have to rise back immediately in order to avoid more fall. The 10Yr GoI is at its key support. A bounce from here and a strong follow-through rise above the immediate resistance is needed to get some relief. We will have to wait and watch.

Global equities remain mixed. Dow needs a break above 53000 to target 53500-54000. Else, it remains vulnerable to a fall towards 51000-50000. DAX stays weak below 25500 and can decline towards 24500-24250. Nifty needs to hold above 24000 to revive the upmove towards 24100-24200. Nikkei has bounced back from support and can rise towards 71000-71500. Shanghai is holding above 4000 and can extend the recovery towards 4100-4150.

Brent can test $70 before bouncing back towards $80-$85, while WTI may decline towards $65 before recovering towards $75-$80. Gold continues to hold above the key $4000 support, keeping the outlook positive for a rise towards $4100-$4150. Silver and Copper have seen a minor pullback but remain constructive while supports near $55 and $5.90 hold, with scope to rise towards $65-$70 and $6.25-$6.30 respectively. Natural Gas has weakened but is likely to remain within the broader $3.00-$3.50 range.

Read full morning briefing @ https://kshitij.com/morning-briefing

01 Jul 26. 0836 IST or 0306 GMT or 2306 EST

Good Morning

The Dollar index needs to hold above support near 100.90-101 to move up to 102 gradually and taking down Euro back to 1.13 or lower. EURINR is holding well above support at 107 and needs to break above 108 now to head towards 109/110. EURJPY has also risen well as expected and may soon break above 186 to rise towards 187/188 before pausing for a reversal. USDJPY trades well above 162 with scope of testing 163/164. USDCNY could trade within 6.78-6.80/81 for the near term. Aussie and Pound need to rise back above 0.69 and 1.32 respectively to avoid a decline to 0.68/67 and 1.31/30. USDINR may rise initially to test resistance at 95/95.10 before a dip to 94.25/15 can be seen again.

The US Treasury Yields have risen back sharply contrary to our expectation. A further rise from here will negate the fall that we were expecting and can take it higher. The German yields continue to oscillate around their support. They have to rise back immediately in order to avoid more fall. It is a wait and watch situation, The 10Yr GoI has bounced back well from its intraday low yesterday. Need to see if it can get a strong follow-through rise today and go further higher to get some relief.

Dow remains below 53000 and could stay within the 52000-53000 range for some time. DAX is likely to trade sideways between 24600 and 25200 until a breakout provides directional clarity. Nifty remains weak below 23900 and can decline towards 23700-23600. Nikkei retains a positive bias towards 71000-71500. Shanghai has strengthened above 4100 and can extend its rally towards 4150-4200.

Crude prices remain weak and can decline towards $70 and $65 before a corrective bounce back is seen. Gold is attempting a break below $4000. A sustained break could drag it towards $3800-$3700. Silver remains weak but support near $55 could trigger a recovery towards $65-$70. Copper continues to hold above $5.90 and can rise towards $6.25-$6.30. Natural Gas remains range-bound within the broader $3.00-$3.50 range.

Read full morning briefing @ https://kshitij.com/morning-briefing