Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

Netflix 2026: Reversal on the Deal, Pullback on Earnings


Fundamental Background
At the end of February, Netflix withdrew from the bid for Warner Bros. Discovery assets after WBD’s board deemed Paramount Skydance’s $31-per-share offer more attractive. Netflix chose not to raise its own bid of $27.75 per share and received compensation of $2.8 billion. The market reacted positively to the company’s exit from the months-long M&A battle, as the threat of adding more than $40 billion in debt to the balance sheet was removed.

The second key event was the company’s Q1 2026 earnings report, released on 16 April. Revenue reached $12.25 billion (+16% year-on-year), while earnings per share came in at $1.23, exceeding consensus forecasts. However, guidance for Q2 fell short of analysts’ expectations for both revenue and EPS, while company founder Reed Hastings announced plans to step down from the board in June. Together, these factors triggered a sharp negative market reaction in April.


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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Market Analysis: GBP/USD Turns Bullish Again While EUR/GBP Drops More



GBP/USD is showing positive signs above 1.3440 and 1.3460. EUR/GBP declined and is now consolidating losses below 0.8680.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and EUR/GBP Analysis Today
- The British Pound started a fresh increase above 1.3420 to enter a positive zone.
- There is a bullish trend line forming with support at 1.3450 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen.
- EUR/GBP is trading in a bearish zone below the 0.8660 pivot level.
- There is a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance near 0.8650 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis



On the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen, the pair remained well-bid above 1.3350. The British Pound started a decent increase above 1.3400 against the US Dollar.
The bulls were able to push the pair above the 50-hour simple moving average and 1.3440. The pair even climbed above 1.3480. A high was formed at 1.3490, and the pair is now consolidating gains above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.3395 swing low to the 1.3490 high.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

ICT Power of 3 (PO3) Explained



The ICT Power of 3 is a price action model describing how markets move through three phases: accumulation, manipulation, and distribution. Also called the AMD trading model, it sits within the Inner Circle Trader framework. Traders use it to interpret institutional behaviour and shape their own market analysis. Recognising these phases may help traders assess potential areas of interest and align their strategies with broader market dynamics.
This article outlines the core principles of the Power of 3 framework, providing a detailed examination of how it is applied in the context of institutional order flow and market structure.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

EUR/JPY: Yen Recovers April Losses as the Market Searches for a New Equilibrium


Fundamental backdrop
In late April 2026, Japan’s Ministry of Finance moved from verbal warnings to direct action, carrying out a currency intervention worth roughly ¥5.5 trillion ($35 billion) — the first since July 2024. The move was triggered by the yen weakening beyond the psychologically significant level of 160 against the dollar.
Additional context comes from the divergence in monetary policy between the ECB and the Bank of Japan: the European regulator continues to leave the door open to tighter policy amid rising inflation expectations, while Tokyo maintains a cautious normalisation path without providing clear guidance on the timing of its next move.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Break and Retest Strategy in Trading


The break and retest strategy is a trading approach based on support and resistance levels. A breakout occurs when price moves beyond a key level, while a retest happens when price returns to that level before potentially continuing in the direction of the breakout. Traders use this strategy in forex and CFD markets to identify possible trend continuation setups and evaluate market structure shifts.

The approach is commonly applied in trending conditions, where price momentum may support continuation after the retest is confirmed. Traders often combine break and retest in trading with price action analysis, volume, or technical indicators to assess breakout strength and manage risk more effectively. In this article, we explain how the break and retest strategy works, how traders may apply it in different market conditions, and which confirmation methods are commonly used.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Geopolitical Risks Support the Dollar Ahead of Fresh US Data


At the start of the week, the US currency continues to trade near significant levels amid ongoing uncertainty surrounding negotiations between the United States and Iran. Markets are closely monitoring reports suggesting a possible prolongation of the negotiation process and an increased US military presence in the Middle East, both of which are supporting demand for safe-haven assets, including the dollar.

Additional support for the US currency comes from rising US Treasury yields and expectations surrounding upcoming macroeconomic data releases, which could influence further market expectations regarding Federal Reserve policy.

At the same time, the dollar’s movement remains mixed. Despite the recent strengthening of USD/JPY and USD/CAD, both pairs have approached important technical resistance levels, where buying activity is beginning to slow. The market is now assessing whether the current momentum can develop into a broader continuation of dollar strength, or whether the advance in the US currency will remain merely a short-term reaction to geopolitical risks.


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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Market Analysis: EUR/USD Targets More Upside As USD/CHF Turns Higher Again



EUR/USD started a downside correction from 1.1650. USD/CHF is rising and might aim for a move toward 0.7880 or 0.7900.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/CHF Analysis Today
- The Euro struggled to clear 1.1650 and corrected gains against the US Dollar.
- There is a key bullish trend line forming with support at 1.1630 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen.
- USD/CHF is showing positive signs above the 0.7830 zone.
- There was a break above a connecting bearish trend line with resistance at 0.7830 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen, the pair gained pace for a move above 1.1600. The Euro tested 1.1650 and recently corrected gains against the US Dollar.
The pair dipped below 1.1635 and the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.1588 swing low to the 1.1652 high. However, the bulls were active above 1.1620. There is also a key bullish trend line forming with support at 1.1630.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

NZD/USD: RBNZ Decision Strengthens Expectations of Further Rate Hikes


Fundamental backdrop
On 27 May, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand kept the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 2.25%, in line with market expectations. However, the decision proved finely balanced: the Monetary Policy Committee voted 3–3, with the final decision resting with Governor Anna Brehman.
In its updated rate projection path, the regulator signalled that the OCR could rise to around 2.8% by the end of the year, implying several rate hikes before year-end. Additional caution stems from the inflation backdrop: the conflict in the Middle East continues to keep inflation above the target range, while the central bank also warned about the weak pace of economic recovery. The split vote and the signal of likely future tightening supported the New Zealand dollar during the Asian session.


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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

EUR/USD and GBP/USD Range-Bound Ahead of Key US Data


European currencies continue to trade within established ranges following the heightened volatility of recent weeks. Last week, both EUR/USD and GBP/USD declined before staging a recovery; however, the pairs are once again testing important support levels without developing a sustained directional impulse. Market participants remain cautious amid the absence of fresh geopolitical catalysts and ahead of key macroeconomic data releases from the United States.
Investor attention is primarily focused on the publication of US core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data, GDP figures, and durable goods orders. These indicators could significantly influence expectations regarding future Federal Reserve policy and determine the next direction for the dollar. Additional market influence is also coming from comments by Bank of England officials and European data on business activity and consumer confidence.


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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

FTSE 100: Correction Has Ended, but a New Impulse Has Yet to Form



Fundamental backdrop
The UK inflation report for April, published on 20 May, delivered unexpectedly positive figures: annual inflation slowed to 2.8% in April 2026 from 3.3% in March, coming in below the consensus forecast of 3.0% and marking the lowest reading since March last year.
Nevertheless, the relief is being viewed as temporary. The unresolved conflict involving Iran continues to exert pressure on oil prices, while the Bank of England maintains a cautious approach towards rate cuts, unwilling to move ahead of incoming inflation data.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

USD/CHF: Consolidation After the Trend



Fundamental Backdrop
The Swiss franc remains influenced by two opposing forces. On the one hand, there is steady demand for safe-haven assets amid tariff-related risks stemming from the United States. On the other, the policy stance of the Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to play a role: in March, the central bank kept its policy rate at zero and reaffirmed its readiness to intervene in the foreign exchange market to prevent excessive franc appreciation.
The Federal Reserve, for its part, is also taking a cautious approach to policy easing. In January, the Fed paused its rate-cutting cycle, citing persistent inflationary pressures. The divergence in the rhetoric of the two central banks has so far failed to provide either side with a sustained advantage.
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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Quasimodo Pattern in Trading



The Quasimodo pattern is a reversal structure that closely resembles the Head and Shoulders. Many traders overlook it or mistake it for its more popular counterpart in price action trading. The QM pattern has distinct entry, stop-loss, and take-profit rules that set it apart. This article covers its structure, the methods used to confirm signals, and the execution rules.

Quasimodo Pattern Structure Explained
The Quasimodo pattern is a reversal chart structure that forms at the end of a trend. The QM pattern relies on a failed continuation. Price prints a higher high (or lower low) in line with the trend. Then it reverses and breaks the prior swing in the opposite direction. This break invalidates the previous structure and signals exhaustion. QM pattern trading suits any timeframe. A Quasimodo trading strategy may be used across forex, stock, and commodity charts.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Candlestick Wick Analysis in Trading


Candlestick wicks often contain critical information about buying and selling pressure that body patterns alone may not reveal. By analysing wick length and position, traders can understand price rejection, momentum shifts, and liquidity zones.
In forex and CFD markets, sessions run long and liquidity shifts across the day. That setup often produces rejections at session boundaries, round numbers, and structural levels. Wick analysis trading may offer a quick read on sentiment that body-only views can miss. This article explains the candle wick meaning and outlines several strategies traders may use.

What Candle Wicks Show in Price Action
Candle wicks, or shadows, are the thin lines above and below a candlestick’s body that indicate how far the price moved during a specific period. The upper wick marks the highest price reached during the candle's period, and the lower wick marks the lowest.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

EUR/GBP: June ECB Meeting Could Bring the Period of Equilibrium to an End


Fundamental backdrop
The divergence in the monetary policy paths of the ECB and the Bank of England is creating a mixed outlook for the pair. Having completed a cycle of eight consecutive rate cuts in 2025, the ECB left its deposit rate unchanged at 2.0% at its April meeting. At the same time, according to Trading Economics, markets are assigning a high probability to a 25-basis-point rate increase as early as 11 June.

The Bank of England, by contrast, remains in wait-and-see mode. On 29 May, Governor Andrew Bailey suggested that inflation could temporarily exceed its target level, indicating that a rate increase from the current 3.75% is unlikely in the near term. As a result, the interest-rate differential between the two central banks could narrow as early as June, and this scenario is weighing on sterling.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

USD/JPY and USD/CAD Test Key Levels Ahead of the ADP Employment Report


The US dollar is holding on to its recently gained ground following a series of strong macroeconomic releases and a rise in US Treasury yields. Additional support for the greenback comes from resilient inflation readings, expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain a restrictive policy stance, and cautious investor sentiment ahead of the release of the preliminary ADP employment report. At the same time, market participants continue to monitor oil price dynamics and other economic indicators that could alter perceptions of the health of the US economy.

Despite continued demand for the dollar, the next directional move remains uncertain. Both USD/JPY and USD/CAD have reached important technical resistance levels, where either profit-taking and a local correction may emerge, or a fresh bullish impulse could develop if US labour market data come in stronger than expected.


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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Gold: Attempt to Break Out of the Short-Term Trend


Fundamental backdrop
In April, US inflation stood at 3.8% year-on-year — the highest level since May 2023. A significant contribution came from rising fuel prices amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. Market reaction was somewhat paradoxical: instead of inflows into safe-haven assets, the strong CPI print triggered a reassessment of Federal Reserve monetary policy. Expectations of a possible rate hike by the end of the year appear to have strengthened the US dollar and weighed on gold.

By the end of May, the precious metal had lost more than 4% and is currently trading roughly 20% below its January record high. Markets are now awaiting labour market data and comments from Federal Reserve officials as key guidance for the next reassessment of monetary expectations.


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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Market Structure Shift (MSS) in Trading


A Market Structure Shift (MSS) is an ICT trading concept used to identify potential changes in market direction. It typically occurs when price fails to maintain the existing structure and breaks a key swing level with strong momentum, known as displacement.

Traders use MSS across forex and CFD markets to analyse possible reversals and shifts in momentum. This article explains what MSS means in trading, how traders identify it, and how it differs from BOS and CHoCH.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Euro and Sterling Weaken as the Dollar Strengthens Ahead of Key US Data



The US dollar continues to hold firm against its major counterparts, supported by strong US macroeconomic data and expectations surrounding the release of further labour market indicators. Additional support for the greenback comes from persistent inflationary risks and the Federal Reserve’s cautious stance regarding further monetary policy easing. Against this backdrop, EUR/USD and GBP/USD remain under pressure, with market participants preferring to reduce long positions in the euro and sterling ahead of the next batch of economic releases.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

NVDA Shares Approach Strong Resistance



Production of NVIDIA processors is concentrated in Taiwan via TSMC, making the company sensitive to US trade policy. In the first quarter of fiscal 2026, NVIDIA recorded a $4.5bn write-down due to restrictions on H20 chip exports to China. At the same time, the revenue structure remains resilient — around 69% of revenue comes from the US domestic market, where hyperscalers continue to increase purchases of accelerators for data centres.

In the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026, revenue reached $68.1bn, representing a 73% year-on-year increase, while full-year revenue totalled $215.9bn (+65%). In late March, the company announced an expansion of its strategic partnership with Marvell Technology, including a $2bn investment and integration via the NVLink Fusion ecosystem, further extending its presence in the Physical AI and robotics segment. However, the overall macroeconomic backdrop remains subdued.




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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

ICT Turtle Soup Trading Strategy Explained


The ICT Turtle Soup is a price action strategy built around false breakouts. It targets failed moves at major support and resistance levels across forex and other markets. Turtle Soup trading focuses on liquidity sweeps that trap breakout traders before price reverses. It uses the reversal that often follows a stop run for entry timing.
This article covers the Turtle Soup forex setup along with its core components. Let’s discuss the conditions traders watch for and the entry framework that goes with them.

What Is the ICT Turtle Soup Pattern?
The ICT Turtle Soup is a reversal approach based on failed breakouts at key support and resistance levels. This forex reversal strategy comes from the Inner Circle Trader (ICT) methodology and frames failed moves as setups.

Traders aim to identify and take advantage of situations where the price briefly moves beyond a major support or resistance level, only to reverse direction shortly after. This movement is often seen in ranging markets where prices oscillate between established highs and lows.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.