Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

LOL.. 5 min will cross upwards soon..

price should move up on this hour

I have a call into Gladys right now. If they don't show up soon the next place you might see them is on the TV show 'Without A Trace'.

M2B

Karmo,

Give us another one of your patience pep talks, Bro. It might do some of the newbies some good (and maybe some of the oldies, too).

M2B

Mizuho Forecasts Dollar to Drop to 106 Yen on Fed Cut

By Kosuke Goto and Shigeki Nozawa

Sept. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Mizuho Corporate Bank Ltd. said the dollar will fall 8.5 percent to 106 yen, reversing a forecast for gains, as the Federal Reserve may lower its benchmark interest rate three times this year.
Mizuho Corporate, a unit of Japan's second-largest lender, cut its year-end outlook from 119 yen, predicting a housing slump and credit-market losses will slow the U.S. economy. Traders have increased bets the Fed will reduce rates, diminishing the appeal of dollar-denominated assets.
``Turmoil in the financial markets will continue,'' Masaki Fukui, a senior economist and currency analyst in Tokyo at Mizuho, said in an interview today. ``The chain reaction of anxieties will adversely affect the real economy in the U.S., buffeting the dollar.''
The U.S. currency has declined for two months against the yen, prompting Japanese financial companies including Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. and Daiwa Securities Group to lower their dollar forecasts last week. Mizuho's prediction compares with a median of 116 yen in a Bloomberg News survey of 42 strategists and economists. Only Citigroup Inc.'s outlook of 105 yen is more bearish.
The U.S. currency traded at 115.94 yen as of 7:50 a.m. in London compared with 115.77 on Aug. 31 in New York. It has dropped 6 percent versus the yen this quarter and reached a 14- month low of 111.61 yen on Aug. 17.
Fed Rate Cuts
The Fed will be forced to cut the target for the overnight lending rate between banks from 5.25 percent three times this year to 4.50 percent by December, Fukui said. Interest-rate futures show traders see a 78 percent chance the Fed will reduce its rate to 4.50 percent by year-end, up from 26 percent a week ago and zero a month ago.
The yield advantage on benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury notes over comparable-maturity Japanese government bonds fell to 290 basis points today, from 293 basis points a week earlier. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point.
U.S. house prices in the second quarter rose at the slowest pace in a decade as lenders tightened requirements to get mortgages, a government report showed Aug. 30.
Investor Confidence
Home prices in the U.S. fell by a record in the second quarter as sales dropped and mortgage lenders made it tougher to get loans, a report by S&P/Case-Shiller showed on Aug. 28. Consumer confidence slumped by the most in two years, figures from the New York-based Conference Board showed the same day.
``The U.S. economy will likely face an aggravating housing slump, an employment adjustment and weakening consumer spending,'' Fukui said. The response of U.S. policy makers may not be able to limit the damage to investor confidence, he said.
Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke on Aug. 31 said the central bank will ``act as needed'' to limit damage to consumer spending and the economy. President George W. Bush pledged to help subprime borrowers, while rejecting a bailout for ``speculators.''
Bush said he will let the Federal Housing Administration, which insures mortgages for low- and middle-income borrowers, guarantee loans for delinquent borrowers, allowing them to avoid foreclosure and refinance at more favorable rates.
``This warrants no optimism,'' Mizuho's Fukui said.
Carry Trade
One-month implied volatility for the yen rose to 13.65 percent today, from 8.95 percent on Aug. 3. Higher volatility may discourage carry trades, as it implies greater exchange-rate fluctuation risk.
``Tighter global liquidity will keep contributing to increased volatility and enable the yen to strengthen as the carry trade is unwound,'' Fukui said.
In carry trades, investors get funds in a country with low borrowing costs and invest elsewhere for higher returns, earning the spread between the borrowing and lending rate. The risk is that currency moves erase those profits.
When the carry trade collapsed in 1998 following Russia's debt default, the yen jumped 10 percent against the dollar in two days and ended the year 15 percent higher.
The Fed reduced its benchmark rate three times between September and November that year after Russia defaulted on $40 billion of debt and Greenwich, Connecticut-based hedge fund Long- Term Capital Management LP collapsed.
``There is a growing awareness the current situation is becoming similar to that time of Russian default and LTCM's meltdown,'' said Toru Umemoto, chief currency strategist at Barclays Capital in Tokyo, who predicts the dollar will fall to 114 yen by year-end.

Inquiring minds want to know:

Here is the "wanted" poster, they may have changed in appearence since then.....

Wew...US and CAD banks on holiday...It sounds like "No Trading" today for me... You know, lack of liquidity and volumes, lack of volatility....I better stay out today...

I don't know. That white guy in the middle looks out of place and a little suspicious. Maybe he had something to do with their disappearance.

M2B

I think I will take my +50pips and +20 Pip trades and run to bed for the night. Take it easy... Market is rangy...

Hi, on the pic u posted Kenmania , how did u get MACD, STR and EMA in different time-frame to the top of your right screen ?

i'm rapidly coming to the same conclusion. I'm getting quite bored waiting. However, I know that the minute I close my longs, it'll soar like a rocket! http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif

Will probably close everything and keep my powder dry for tomorrow.

Now we know where they went to . . .

I'm outta here too, everybody! Take care!

http://mail.google.com/mail/?realatt...4bc1d482ddca71

as long as this closes above 233.95 this hr--i see more chances of it heading higher-- 15min to go--lets see

Here ya go...

Anyway look at the bright side, today may be a good day to demo the scalping strategy How it performs in the ranging days....

Well, I've hesistated to show this chart because I know that the different MT4 platforms have different opening times for their 4H candles and I don't want to confuse anybody. Mine is from ODL and my 4H won't change again until 1200GMT (8AM EST). Notice that the momentum is down and that the 5SMA is presently around 233.80. I don't know if this is what is holding up the long or not. One of the small problems in this thread is that different platforms begin their 4H candles at different times which skews some of the indicators. The lower TF's aren't affected obviously. I don't know if there is a solution but it can get confusing at times trying to determine which 4H platform is giving the correct reading for momentum, TFT and QQE. Anyway, here's the chart. I think we're still bullish and just waiting for some more consolidation or 5SMA to catch up to price.

M2B

Well then, Andy, please hurry and close your longs so the rest of us can make some money!

M2B

Starting to think that is it breaks the 50 SMA on smaller timeframes, we going for a ride