Supernova GBP/JPY Mini Trend Catcher

Quoting cryten

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For a start I'd be in bed sleeping waiting for euro open but on my chart

As far as i can see I would have locked in at least 20 pips (using Spudfyre MM) on each trade. Did you check each trade?

Trade 1 went up max 69 pips
Trade 2 went up max 67 pips
Trade 3 went up max 134 pips

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Quoting marc

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THX, for your reply.

I think the best we could do is post live trades. The best way to see what we could do with losing ones.

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Quoting cryten

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For a start I'd be in bed sleeping waiting for euro open but on my chart

As far as i can see I would have locked in at least 20 pips (using Spudfyre MM) on each trade. Did you check each trade?

Trade 1 went up max 69 pips
Trade 2 went up max 67 pips
Trade 3 went up max 134 pips

And I trade live.

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Quoting cryten

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I only post my live trades. I work full time so don't get the chance to ride every wave. This is also why now I have 30 min and 4 hour charts open with this system.

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Quoting charvo

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One thing I'd like to remind of friends here is that last week is a volitle week, that's probably the reason why there are few fake breakouts and most trades are successful. Well, anyway, GJ has always been voltile, so maybe no worry at all.

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Quoting cryten

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hi, that is the daily high and low lines drawn by my trading software

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Quoting cryten

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i replied ^^^^

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Quoting marc

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Cryten,

Thank you for your system. It is one of the best TF5 systems I've seen so far.

Nevertheless, my experience tells me that we should focus more in losing trades than in winning ones.

GBPJPY is a wild, wild beast and can erase in seconds what you've made in days.

I attach a chart to show what I'm saying.

THX.

Marc

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Quoting Qpip

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nb GBPJPY just opened with a big downward gap @ 233.18 @ 15:00 EST

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Quoting cryten

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The week before last was a very volatile week. You know as long as I have been watching the markets people have been saying, "oh well last week was very volatile" It's august, thats why were losing money" blah blah
The market is either trendy, choppy or ranges.
That will never change.

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Quoting charvo

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Thank you very much for this system, Cryten, you are a genius!

I've a question: you prefer to enter the long from above T3, and short from below T3. However, my impression is that this way may delay the entries, thus losing some pips that could've earned if we enter earlier.

My logic goes with 2 reasons:
1. T3 is a MA in fact, a MA is always lagged. When T3 gives a "safe go", i doubt that it might be a little late.
2. Your system actually catches the reversals, the longer TF u use, the more obvious you find this. Therefore, it is logical to sell at the highest top, and buy at lowest bottom, instead of waiting a few more bars to get over T3. What I guess is that we simply set the SL beyond the recent high/low, and enter earlier.

Just my 1 cent, Hope it brings more insight from you guys.

Thanks again, Cryten!

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Quoting Qpip

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Hi Marc,

I couldn’t exactly match your example, as time/price are not shown. But I took a similar situation. Let’s look at what would have happened.

For the first signal (blue) dot, we wouldn’t have entered because the candles are not in accordance to “no/few lower shadows”. So that one would have been avoided.

For the 2nd signal (pink dot), the candles this time don’t have upper shadows, however they are not in accordance with “price cleanly below green ma (t3)”. So once again, no trade (and no loss)

As for the 3rd signal (blue) the third candle complies with both “shadow” and “above” rules, and both lower indicators agree. So we go long @ approx. 233.45 with a stop loss just above t3 @ 233.27. By the time we get a new signal and the 3rd red candle closes, our stop takes us out for –18 pips (not including spread).

But for the next trade, when all indicators agree, we go long @ 233.47 and exit ½ position and place SL at breakeven +1 after the 3rd doji (the long red one) since I feel dojies are a sign of reversal @ 233.63 for +17 pips (not including spread).

Now a –1 pip balance isn’t impressive. But look at the next trade (second pic). Long @ 233.50 close ½ position at doji @ 233.87 and close other half at other doji @ 234.39 for +126 pips (my trades are 2 standard lots so each pip = 8.60$)

I know that gbpjpy is volatile. I just don’t know when, so I need to assume that the next trade will be it. Then it isn’t and I either make a small profit or a small loss. But I need to enter as many trades as possible so that when the big one comes along, I’m in it.

Of course, like you, I would like to have a system that guaranties that I’ll end up in profit all the time. However, as of sept 2, 2007, I haven’t found one. But this system (supernova) is pretty close. Let’s hope cryten tweaks things a bit to make it even more “bad trade” proof.

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Quoting marc

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THX, Qpip.

We'll talk about all that tomorrow with "live" patterns. Though I like to trade GBPUSD much more than GBPJPY. But, as said, my live OANDA account is for demoing. So, no problem if I lose, if it is the case, some bucks.

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