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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #20,081
  • Sep 1, 2007 1:00am Sep 1, 2007 1:00am
Oh yes sir,214 coming up
Boyy,trap money,like bear hunters.
  • #20,082
  • Edited 6:18am Sep 1, 2007 4:44am | Edited 6:18am
Looks like the Bears have been reduced in count in this thread.

My apologies to the BULLS...... But consider this scenario..

1. my wave 2 count for a retracement up to 235.50 to be valid was missed by just 1 PIP. 235.50 retracement is a valid 100% retracement for Wave 2
2. A Zigzag wave 2 where C=A should have ended at 238.37. But it stopped at 235.49
3. Check out the 1 hour chart and zoom out far enough to see the classic inverted head and shoulder pattern. Correct me if I am wrong. But isnt that a Trend reversal signal which denotes bearishness?)

So... if this bearishness rolls out

1. First target would be 227.13 area. This would probably be just the 1st leg of a 5 wave structre wave 5 down to finish wave 4C5 down which is estimated to go as low as 209.14 conservatively and 203.99 ambitiously.

2. from 227 level, we expect a race up again towards 235.50 for a potential 100% retracement of a higher wave degree.

EG

PS
Supplement this with pipskidnapper's Trendline, Support and Resistance Analysis...... this pair is more bearish for me.
  • #20,083
  • Sep 1, 2007 6:12am Sep 1, 2007 6:12am
Looking at my charts, we will have a big fall next week..

Weekly chart:

I don't remember what we call this last candle but it is a sign of a big fall

http://img105.imageshack.us/img105/9029/gjvr1.gif


Daily chart:

On the daily chart, we have completed 50% retracement as you can see


http://img167.imageshack.us/img167/2357/gjog0.gif


4H chart:

We are in a nice downtrend channel, and if we take the fib from 244 to the low of 219, we have completed 61.8% retracement, so to me we should be heading downwards from here..

http://img252.imageshack.us/img252/8899/gjdh6.gif
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #20,084
  • Sep 1, 2007 6:41am Sep 1, 2007 6:41am
[quote=karmostaji;1571161]Looking at my charts, we will have a big fall next week..


exactly my thoughts and its all im my signature

wait till i show u guys a chart early nxt week

im preparing for a BIG ride -- and ill be in the front of that rollercoaster with my hands up ready for the freefall !!

HM
  • #20,085
  • Sep 1, 2007 7:36am Sep 1, 2007 7:36am
Quoting karmostaji
Looking at my charts, we will have a big fall next week..

Weekly chart:

I don't remember what we call this last candle but it is a sign of a big fall

http://img105.imageshack.us/img105/9029/gjvr1.gif


Daily chart:

On the daily chart, we have completed 50% retracement as you can see


http://img167.imageshack.us/img167/2357/gjog0.gif


4H chart:

We are in a nice downtrend channel, and if we take the fib from 244 to the low of 219, we have completed 61.8% retracement, so to me we should be heading downwards from here..

http://img252.imageshack.us/img252/8899/gjdh6.gif

To me on your weekly chart , it's called a hammer , and usually hammer in a downtrend are a sign of possible reversal.
This hammer just showing us that the bears were in control but it seems bulls took over them.
The fact the hammer is red or green doesn't really matter.
Maybe it's not a hammer you are talking about though
Anyway we'll have another interesting week , so enjoy your week-end and cya on Monday
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #20,086
  • Sep 1, 2007 7:51am Sep 1, 2007 7:51am
Quoting kuroro001
To me on your weekly chart , it's called a hammer , and usually hammer in a downtrend are a sign of possible reversal.
This hammer just showing us that the bears were in control but it seems bulls took over them.
The fact the hammer is red or green doesn't really matter.
Maybe it's not a hammer you are talking about though
Anyway we'll have another interesting week , so enjoy your week-end and cya on Monday
It is indeed a hammer and if you want something even more interesting, have a look at the weekly DOW chart, we have a nice hammer there too. I expect a huge fall.. 1000+ pips
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #20,087
  • Sep 1, 2007 8:00am Sep 1, 2007 8:00am
i also favor a bearish move on the long term. but before that... i have a couple of comments for the weekly chart:
1. the weekly candle you are talking about is NOT a hanging man (although it looks exactly like one), just because it is not on top of an uptrend. one bullish candle is not an uptrend.
2. if we are in a corrective set of waves, i would have expected to see a larger correction, such as to at least 0.618 weekly (238.94). although the last fall was very sharp so 0.5 might be enough. just might.
3. this last week has made a higher high compared to previous week. so i'm not convinced we're going down more in the very near future. if we see a higher high (above 235.51, this week's high) there are chances we might go up. if we see a lower low (224.86, previous week low) then the downtrend will continue.
now on the other hand, daily and h4 charts strongly suggest a fall pretty soon. we'll see.

Quoting karmostaji
Looking at my charts, we will have a big fall next week..

Weekly chart:

I don't remember what we call this last candle but it is a sign of a big fall




Daily chart:

On the daily chart, we have completed 50% retracement as you can see





4H chart:

We are in a nice downtrend channel, and if we take the fib from 244 to the low of 219, we have completed 61.8% retracement, so to me we should be heading downwards from here..
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #20,088
  • Edited 9:01am Sep 1, 2007 8:04am | Edited 9:01am
not a hammer either. a hammer occurs at the bottom of a downtrend...
if either of you would have read nison's book... these patterns only have a value when they appear at the (presumable) end of a specific move. so, to call it a hammer, we should see a downtrend first (that is, at least 3 candlesticks in a downtrend); while to call it a hanging man, there should be an uptrend (same thing, 3 candles up). i don't see that.
and just to get a little bit technical... a hammer and a hanging man have little value without a confirmation. also, they don't always signal a trend reversal, but a change in trend (which could be a change to sideways). so using that candlestick (that looks exactly like a hammer or a hanging man, but it isn't either of them) as one of the reasons for predicting that fall is not a wise thing.

Quoting karmostaji
It is indeed a hammer and if you want something even more interesting, have a look at the weekly DOW chart, we have a nice hammer there too. I expect a huge fall.. 1000+ pips
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #20,089
  • Sep 1, 2007 8:17am Sep 1, 2007 8:17am
stop it guys, all this bearish talk is getting me excited.
  • #20,090
  • Sep 1, 2007 8:28am Sep 1, 2007 8:28am
Quoting karmostaji
It is indeed a hammer and if you want something even more interesting, have a look at the weekly DOW chart, we have a nice hammer there too. I expect a huge fall.. 1000+ pips
1000+ pips?

Yummy
  • #20,091
  • Sep 1, 2007 9:02am Sep 1, 2007 9:02am
Quoting markam
stop it guys, all this bearish talk is getting me excited.
Demanding the Supply of a Stable Currency
August 31, 2007 at 7:23 pm · Filed under Money, Economics, NewsLog
“All fluctuations in a currency’s value, which can be noted in the foreign exchange market and currency’s exchange rate with gold, are the result of the mismatch of supply and demand.”
by Nathan Lewis



http://mensnewsdaily.com/2007/08/31/...able-currency/

Safe Piping
  • #20,092
  • Sep 1, 2007 9:16am Sep 1, 2007 9:16am
Quoting Scrat
not a hammer either. a hammer occurs at the bottom of a downtrend...
if either of you would have read nison's book... these patterns only have a value when they appear at the (presumable) end of a specific move. so, to call it a hammer, we should see a downtrend first (that is, at least 3 candlesticks in a downtrend); while to call it a hanging man, there should be an uptrend (same thing, 3 candles up). i don't see that.
and just to get a little bit technical... a hammer and a hanging man have little value without a confirmation. also, they don't always signal a trend
reversal, but a change in trend (which could be a change to sideways). so using that candlestick (that looks exactly like a hammer or a hanging man, but it isn't either of them) as one of the reasons for predicting that +1000 pips is not a wise thing.
exactly !! -- this is a good lesson re: hangingman/hammer -- many have misunderstood what it represents--Scrat-- nice of u to share
basic candlestick patterns should be a know know for everyone !

the most important point above is:

a hammer and a hanging man have little value without a confirmation

BUT a good confirmation at the same time on a weekly chart means that the coming weekly candle ideally needs to be greater then half the body size of the previous bull candle week (the week b4 the past week) which was approx 1000 pips long. That means this coming weeks candle has to close sort of greater then 400-500 pips below that bull candle---(or even as Karmo suggested 1000 pips)-- so big move cant be ruled out simply coz we would be lookin at a weekly confirmation candle which can be HUGE nxt week---preferabely even back to the 100sma on weekly....and if that happens --we will all enjoy the fruits of that rollercoaster ride
  • #20,093
  • Sep 1, 2007 9:28am Sep 1, 2007 9:28am
Hello everyone.

I have a question....

Due to recent events with my job, I'm putting more hours in and my trading timetable has significantly decreased. I'm looking to start day trading, possible weekly trading and I'm having a difficult time trying to establish good S/L levels??? I know that I will deal with more of a swing in the market and a 100 pip S/L might not be a smart move. Any advice would be great!

Thanks everyone.

Brandon
  • #20,094
  • Sep 1, 2007 9:42am Sep 1, 2007 9:42am
Quoting JDAMv3
Hello everyone.

I have a question....

Due to recent events with my job, I'm putting more hours in and my trading timetable has significantly decreased. I'm looking to start day trading, possible weekly trading and I'm having a difficult time trying to establish good S/L levels??? I know that I will deal with more of a swing in the market and a 100 pip S/L might not be a smart move. Any advice would be great.

Thanks everyone.

Brandon
with the recent established subprime fundamental crisis and a circus in techinical trading-- daily s/l of 200-300 pips might not be even be good enough

so swing/position traders have to be very careful and make sure they are not margin called

read the discussion we have been having as the potential scenarios for every week and decide accordingly

usually this pair has been good/best for swing /position traders coz its a carry trade --but due to recent events--u have noticed its been a warzone everyday with bulls/bears- and its intensifying for another LARGE move--so anyone with small stop losses will be wiped out if they are on the other side

my advise---its not the best time for swing/position trading this pair--wait for a confirmation of the trend ( that Large move) and then ride it BIG time
  • #20,095
  • Sep 1, 2007 9:47am Sep 1, 2007 9:47am
Quoting Hakuna Matata
with the recent established subprime fundamental crisis and a circus in techinical trading-- daily s/l of 200-300 pips might not be even be good enough

so swing/position traders have to be very careful and make sure they are not margin called

read the discussion we have been having as the potential scenarios for every week and decide accordingly

usually this pair has been good/best for swing /position traders coz its a carry trade --but due to recent events--u have noticed its been a warzone everyday with bulls/bears- and its intensifying for another LARGE move--so anyone with small stop losses will be wiped out if they are on the other side

my advise---its not the best time for swing/position trading this pair--wait for a confirmation of the trend ( that Large move) and then ride it BIG time
I really appreciate your response. I'll be looking for the BIG move.

Thanks
  • #20,096
  • Sep 1, 2007 10:17am Sep 1, 2007 10:17am
For the ones who are not familiar with candlestick formations;

http://www.actionforex.com/articles_..._200605107114/
  • #20,097
  • Sep 1, 2007 10:25am Sep 1, 2007 10:25am

http://www.todayfx.com/images/winterbug3_index.jpg

- How much longer will I be in this sick-bed?...

  • #20,098
  • Sep 1, 2007 10:34am Sep 1, 2007 10:34am
Well, just hope all the bearish predictions for next week are correct
I have one open short position with smaller lot traded right before the close, go for a hundred pips, not very much according to predicted big falls but good enough for me http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon10.gif
I traded this decision based on quite bearish on indicators, and quite strong Japanese treasuries closed on Friday. Well, let's see http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon6.gif
  • #20,099
  • Sep 1, 2007 10:40am Sep 1, 2007 10:40am
Noticed quite many times, when there is a big swing on this pair. What is so called resistance, support, fib numbers are not coming to play. Only in ranging market, these numbers are quite effective.
Well, I might see differently from you guys who are experts on these things.
  • #20,100
  • Sep 1, 2007 11:47am Sep 1, 2007 11:47am
Interesting excerpt from Prechter:

http://bullnotbull.com/bull/node/44
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