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  • #20,041
  • May 19, 2026 2:50am May 19, 2026 2:50am
Quoting 7154Superman
{quote} I'm very aware of the dramatic financial policy shift that needs to take place, which, in my opinion, seems to possibly be set up to happen like a surprise event in the near term, the Iran war ending, oil prices going way down, and the new Fed chair aggressively declaring plans to cut interest rates. I'm hearing that's the reason Trump chose him to replace Powell. And as bearish as the market is right now, after all this sideways activity the last few months, that's excellent liquidity for the market movers to take advantage of to drive...
I see . You can make such scenarios feel freely, but putting your money it's your own risk.

In my case I will only buy the deal or peace scenario if I see a signed document that declares it from Trump accompanied by a move above a structural technical resistance level. I still don't see it but only fake news about a deal.


If, it happens I hope I'm here to discuss it more.
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #20,042
  • May 19, 2026 3:43am May 19, 2026 3:43am
Quoting 7154Superman
{quote} I'm very aware of the dramatic financial policy shift that needs to take place, which, in my opinion, seems to possibly be set up to happen like a surprise event in the near term, the Iran war ending, oil prices going way down, and the new Fed chair aggressively declaring plans to cut interest rates. I'm hearing...
Trading is a matter of probability and as u say this is a "surprise" scenario. But let s dip a bit inside being aware that these 3 factors are stricly interwined:

1. U.S.–Iran Diplomatic Deal

  1. Current Probability: ~35%–40%
  2. The Catalyst: Negotiations have accelerated drastically. President Donald Trump recently paused a planned military strike to review a fast-moving, 14-point memorandum of understanding.
  3. The Headwind: Major friction points remain regarding uranium enrichment limits and structural sanctions relief. The risk of a sudden breakdown keeps a heavy geopolitical premium alive

2. Crude Oil Moving Significantly Down

  1. Current Probability: ~60% (Conditional on the Deal)
  2. The Catalyst: Crude is trading elevated near $102–$104/bbl purely due to the Middle East war and disruptions at the Strait of Hormudz.
  3. The Outcome: If a peace deal is struck, the immediate reopening of the Strait would release an estimated 4 million barrels per day back into global supply. Underlying soft economic demand and a global supply glut mean oil would likely crash back toward $70/bbl or lower by the end of 2026

3. Federal Reserve Cutting Interest Rates

  1. Current Probability: ~25%–30% for 2026
  2. The Catalyst: High oil prices have pushed U.S. consumer inflation to 3.8%, forcing the Fed to hold rates tight at 3.5%–3.75%. Major brokerages like GoldmanSachs and BoA have completely written off rate cuts for 2026, pricing them into mid-2027 instead.
  3. The Outcome: The Fed will only cut rates if crude drops drastically first, bringing headline inflation back down to the 2% target

Because the Fed requires lag time to observe lower energy prices before actually cutting rates, the overall probability of seeing all three events finalize before the end of the year (so not in a near terms) stays locked around 30% to 35%

chaos is just unknown order
  • #20,043
  • May 19, 2026 4:15am May 19, 2026 4:15am
Quoting johncen
{quote} yea as soon as i see a close below 1626 then i will ditch my longs
nope bear in control
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #20,044
  • May 19, 2026 8:53am May 19, 2026 8:53am
DAILY OUTLOOK

EURUSD is trading in a bearish parallel channel .. the trend is bearish on daily ...
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  • #20,045
  • May 19, 2026 9:01am May 19, 2026 9:01am
Quoting Meer-Shayhak
DAILY OUTLOOK EURUSD is trading in a bearish parallel channel .. the trend is bearish on daily ... {image}
Even though EU is bearish on dialy but still EU could retest the lows at 1.17 before heading for the lows
  • #20,046
  • May 19, 2026 9:31am May 19, 2026 9:31am
Quoting Js3mwtRc
The EUR/USD traded back and forth as it found some support at 1.1607/27 yesterday, but for now, the bearish trend remains intact, with sellers positioned higher at the 1.1675-1.1695 resistance zone, which is capping the pair. If support cannot hold, then 1.1600 and 1.1576/65 should be the next bearish targets. Daily volatility (range) 42 pips Have a great day! 4H {image}
Looks its going yo continue to 1.1576/65 support zone now that 1.1600 is gone.

Also a close below 1.1600/08 on daily basis could see 1.1500!
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #20,047
  • May 19, 2026 9:55am May 19, 2026 9:55am
i dont know yours guys but my positions are spitting money like a fountain
chaos is just unknown order
  • #20,048
  • May 19, 2026 10:06am May 19, 2026 10:06am
Down until Iran accepts US terms!

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Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #20,049
  • May 19, 2026 10:45am May 19, 2026 10:45am
In terms of Fundamentals anything can happen, but for the technical analysis guys, this market is going down in a long run, that's all I can say
  • #20,050
  • May 19, 2026 11:01am May 19, 2026 11:01am
bro is paper trading with us
  • #20,051
  • May 19, 2026 11:01am May 19, 2026 11:01am
the support has been broken but the RSI on H1 and H4 is not looking good for shorts ....

Quoting Meer-Shayhak
the support has been broken but the RSI on H1 and H4 is not looking good for shorts .... {image}
And i expect a move up before we head toward the lows
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  • #20,052
  • May 19, 2026 10:29pm May 19, 2026 10:29pm
The EUR/USD is bearish trading near 1.1600 after the opening maintaining its floor at 1.1591 with only small bounces below 1.1727/33 resistance zone. If it continues then 1.1565/76 or 1.1541 support levels should be the next to target. An upside move above the resistance zone will target 1.1661 first.

Daily volatility (range) 43 pips

Significant news - FOMC Meeting Minutes


Have a great day!

1H
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Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #20,053
  • May 20, 2026 12:00am May 20, 2026 12:00am
Quoting Js3mwtRc
The EUR/USD is bearish trading near 1.1600 after the opening maintaining its floor at 1.1591 with only small bounces below 1.1727/33 resistance zone. If it continues then 1.1565/76 or 1.1541 support levels should be the next to target. An upside move above the resistance zone will target 1.1661 first. Daily volatility (range) 43 pips Significant news - FOMC Meeting Minutes Have a great day! 1H {image}
all indicators pointing south of now. I was expecting 1.1670-90 before heading south so didnt add shorts at 1660. Not sure if i will get to reload shorts
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #20,054
  • May 20, 2026 12:01am May 20, 2026 12:01am
Quoting Js3mwtRc
T...Significant news - FOMC Meeting Minutes... {image}
+-------------------------------------------------------------+ | Ripartition of the Probabilities for FOMC Minutes | +-------------------------------------------------------------+ | Hawkish Scenario : █████████████████████ 55% |
| DIVIDED Scenario : █████████████ 35% |
| Dovish Scenario : ████ 10% |
+-------------------------------------------------------------+
chaos is just unknown order
  • #20,055
  • May 20, 2026 12:16am May 20, 2026 12:16am
Quoting johncen
{quote} all indicators pointing south of now. I was expecting 1.1670-90 before heading south so didnt add shorts at 1660. Not sure if i will get to reload shorts
Maybe wait after the fomc meeting or a sudden fake news spike. I sold around 1645 and took my first profits leaving a trade open just in case. Your level worked perfectly
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #20,056
  • May 20, 2026 2:17am May 20, 2026 2:17am
Quoting Js3mwtRc
{quote} Maybe wait after the fomc meeting or a sudden fake news spike. I sold around 1645 and took my first profits leaving a trade open just in case. Your level worked perfectly
its more likely to go further down than up. Now if it climbs back up above 1660 again then it might a tempt bottom
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #20,057
  • May 20, 2026 2:52am May 20, 2026 2:52am
Can clearly see bearish momemtum remain strong and in control
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Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #20,058
  • May 20, 2026 4:10am May 20, 2026 4:10am
with CPI of EuroArea @ 3% there s no need to any hike, last kiss to 1.16????
chaos is just unknown order
  • #20,059
  • May 20, 2026 4:43am May 20, 2026 4:43am
Quoting Luxyus
with CPI of EuroArea @ 3% there s no need to any hike, last kiss to 1.16????
3% is near 2% but not 2%. If oil prices rise more then ECB should act now to prevent any adverse scenario.
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #20,060
  • May 20, 2026 6:22am May 20, 2026 6:22am
Quoting Js3mwtRc
{quote} 3% is near 2% but not 2%. If oil prices rise more then ECB should act now to prevent any adverse scenario.
ECB has a LOT of tools before to touch IR, let me remind you which they are:

1. Government Bond Management and Quantitative Tightening (QT)
Balance Sheet Reduction: The ECB can accelerate the drain of liquidity from the system by not reinvesting maturing securities purchased under old programs (such as the APP and PEPP). Less money in circulation helps dampen demand.
Anti-Fragmentation Shield (TPI): If markets excessively penalize the bonds of highly debt-ridden countries (such as Italy), the ECB can activate the Transmission Protection Instrument to selectively purchase bonds and stabilize spreads without changing general rates.

2. Bank Refinancing Operations
Fewer loans to banks: By modifying the conditions of long-term refinancing operations (such as the old TLTROs), the ECB can make it more expensive for commercial banks to obtain liquidity directly from the central bank.
Credit Restriction: This pushes credit institutions to grant fewer loans to businesses and households, slowing the velocity of money circulation in the economy.

3. Reserve Requirement Ratio
Liquidity Block:The ECB can increase the percentage of deposits that commercial banks are required to keep frozen at the central bank itself.In this way money is subtracted from the real economy, reducing the total money supply and curbing inflationary pressures.

4. Communication and Forward Guidance
Market Orientation: Through official speeches, the ECB can provide Forward Guidance, that is, announce its intention to maintain tight financial conditions for a very long period. This "announcement effect" tightens financial markets and market rates (such as the Euribor) even before an actual increase in official rates occurs.
chaos is just unknown order
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