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  • #4,261
  • May 12, 2026 10:43am May 12, 2026 10:43am
Quoting Fadhl
{quote} I bought at 28760.
Took off partial with 50 points. Reduced my STP.
  • #4,262
  • May 12, 2026 11:09am May 12, 2026 11:09am
Quoting Fadhl
{quote} Took off partial with 50 points. Reduced my STP.
And stopped but my day is green.
  • #4,263
  • May 12, 2026 11:45am May 12, 2026 11:45am
Quoting Fadhl
Good day! Overshoot Inflation data... Asian session started the taking profit leg, European continued and with this inflation data NY should continue down. However, usually in a taking profit leg, price retests the high with extension up, then the real move down will start. {image}
As expected... I think price reached the end of the taking profit leg of 700 points which is just above ATR.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #4,264
  • May 12, 2026 12:07pm May 12, 2026 12:07pm
That's my game. Made 280% avg. return today. Awesome. Waited so long for that day. Finally some clean price action.
  • #4,265
  • May 12, 2026 3:22pm May 12, 2026 3:22pm
NQ needs a close below 29000 to avoid a bullish close!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #4,266
  • May 13, 2026 7:48am May 13, 2026 7:48am
Good day!
I'm late...
Inflation data confirmed the overshoot.
On the other hand, NQ behaved as expected: end the taking profit leg =) move up to retest the previous high with possible extension =) the start of the real move down (this is in play).
  • #4,267
  • May 13, 2026 8:40am May 13, 2026 8:40am
OR is slightly bearish with a large wick. Price made already a break down. I think price will retest the high again then we go down.
Edit
Retesting the high seems wrong.
Looking for the retest of the OR to sell.
  • #4,268
  • May 13, 2026 8:54am May 13, 2026 8:54am
it would be bearish after ny open that was sure
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  • #4,269
  • May 13, 2026 8:57am May 13, 2026 8:57am
Sell position.
I'm not in yet. Waiting H1 to close and see the market behavior.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #4,270
  • May 13, 2026 9:02am May 13, 2026 9:02am
my guess is that is going bearish till 28850-28900
  • #4,271
  • May 13, 2026 9:22am May 13, 2026 9:22am
hmmmpff... the vola is good but it is a bit too wild. I wonder if that will go on in future. again, v-shape move.

I'm really not sure where this is going to end. I'm a bit worried about markets, especially nasdaq. because of this:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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See, V-Shape again, insane move. and recovered in few moments. very easy to exploit as a non-professional. just put a long at xxx720 and a short at xxx700 - and if both sides get hit, double down. Almost every day a winner. That is highly amateur play. I'm not sure what the algos are doing there. But they have a safety net build in. it is the cyan rectangle you can see. it is always the same: they avoid to trade market back into good value areas and fake around in the middle until next run is hitting and takes you out if you play in the middle.

In general that biases HUGE trend trader these days. The PF ratios are upside down. I cannot really believe what I see. To make the stats more correct again, you see that mess after these to swings. It is cleaning up the easy money systems, to hide them if you backtest it.

What makes me really worry: The aggressiveness and seeming endless money real big boys have these days... and that they are able to make money with v-shape moves. V-shape moves were moves which indicates the mass in former times to be wrong completely. Today I have the feeling it is used to trap all traders and the push is not by chance. Hmmm...
  • #4,272
  • May 13, 2026 9:28am May 13, 2026 9:28am
And as I write, guys, as I write we are already 130 points away from my last entry today (28972 was my best entry, closed at 28996)- only on that one position I would have made 130% avg. daily return.... that is crazy. with 1 solely position.

Anybody an idea to exploit that better? I know some professionals keep the last position they have. I did that today too but only for 30 points.... which is kind of good but with that crazyness you almost need to hold one position from the low.
  • #4,273
  • May 13, 2026 9:36am May 13, 2026 9:36am
Quoting Fadhl
Sell position. I'm not in yet. Waiting H1 to close and see the market behavior. {image}
After the move up of the market, I put my Sell Stp at 29108 to catch the potential down leg.
  • #4,274
  • May 13, 2026 10:05am May 13, 2026 10:05am
Quoting Fadhl
{quote} After the move up of the market, I put my Sell Stp at 29108 to catch the potential down leg.
Sorry Fadhi... I think you got stopped out. We are now 285 points above the low 70 minutes before... 300% of my avg. return... one position. I assume it will go on and on and on like that. There must be money made with that,- somehow. Expect a downdrive soon. Massively overextended now.
  • #4,275
  • May 13, 2026 10:08am May 13, 2026 10:08am
Quoting JackintheBox
{quote} Sorry Fadhi... I think you got stopped out. We are now 285 points above the low 70 minutes before... 300% of my avg. return... one position. I assume it will go on and on and on like that. There must be money made with that,- somehow. Expect a downdrive soon. Massively overextended now.
Price never went back to 29108; hence it was not triggered.
  • #4,276
  • May 13, 2026 10:09am May 13, 2026 10:09am
Quoting Fadhl
{quote} Price never went back to 29108; hence it was not triggered.
Ah ok, I have another quote. on my one it is currently 29216.
  • #4,277
  • May 13, 2026 10:25am May 13, 2026 10:25am
I sold at 29230 a small position and keeping my Sell stop at 29108.
  • #4,278
  • May 13, 2026 10:40am May 13, 2026 10:40am
Quoting JackintheBox
hmmmpff... the vola is good but it is a bit too wild. I wonder if that will go on in future. again, v-shape move. I'm really not sure where this is going to end. I'm a bit worried about markets, especially nasdaq. because of this: {image} See, V-Shape again, insane move. and recovered in few moments. very easy to exploit as a non-professional. just put a long at xxx720 and a short at xxx700 - and if both sides get hit, double down. Almost every day a winner. That is highly amateur play. I'm not sure what the algos are doing there. But they have...
Very true, I am out already for a few days, but difficult trades. Only for good scalpers. The Nasdaq reaction after the PPI data today says it all.
  • #4,279
  • May 13, 2026 10:52am May 13, 2026 10:52am
Quoting HarpexMars
{quote} Very true, I am out already for a few days, but difficult trades. Only for good scalpers. The Nasdaq reaction after the PPI data today says it all.
Inflation overshoot is a macro fundamental impact. 100% price will go down for NQ and stocks.
See 10Y, 30Y bonds reaction and you will see that Interest hikes are coming. But the question why this is not translated in a sell-off of equities?
The answer is many other factors are playing at the same time:
1- AI and semiconductors stock are over the moon which is a huge factor;
2- Trump in China with a huge economic leaders; so we should expect many positive accouncements;
3- Iran-US deal seems underway.
4- NVDA earnings is next week (May 20th) (this one is less relevant for this week)

This said, I'm confident that the day will end strong red.
  • #4,280
  • May 13, 2026 11:57am May 13, 2026 11:57am
Quoting HarpexMars
{quote} Very true, I am out already for a few days, but difficult trades. Only for good scalpers. The Nasdaq reaction after the PPI data today says it all.
Hi HarpexMars, I only see one good setup currently with little or no moneymanagement and that is these entrys:


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Everything else is rubbish in my view. They always pick up the extremes and reverse fully. Or they breathe a bit and kick your a*s again when you entered to late.
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