Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade

Risk Management. Has nothing to do with the chart. Learn risk management.

Stop loss is a function of position size and RISK.

Risk is how much you are ok losing to find out if you chose the correct direction.

POSITION SIZE = RISK / STOP LOSS.

STOP LOSS = RISK / POSITION SIZE.

First, determine how much money you are willing to lose - RISK.

Next, if you like to keep your POSITION SIZE the same, then your STOP LOSS will always be the same number of pips.

Or, if you place your STOP LOSS 10 pips away on one trade and 7 on the next, you have to calculate the POSITION SIZE each time.

No reason to ban you, Mate.

Cheers!

My suggestion is to do the 10 trade challenge as per the original rules. Or even 20. Win or loose dosent matter. Record your trades.
What i found out working for me is to target 1-RR trades with SL set at high or low. If you intend to use the original SL placement method you have to make sure to cut your losses at -5 or around there. If not as you point it out 1 big loss can wipe many winning trades.
As TS mentioned main focus should be on 1 pair until you master it. When you trade 1 pair you will identify certain patterns which will work well with HOLO.

From Claude AI:


This is a really well-constructed trading methodology. Let me give you a thorough analysis of both the system and what the chart shows right now.## Chart analysis — USDJPY M15, May 8–9 2026
What the chart shows right now:
The indicator has already done the work for you. I can see labeled levels:

1. D1[0] High: 156.986 — today's daily high (also marked as H4[79] Higher Open 1.7, a cautionary note)
2. D1[1] High: 156.948 — yesterday's daily high
3. H4[31] Lower Open 20.4: 156.636 — this appears to be your lowest H1 open area for the current day
4. H1[27] Lower Open 9.0: 156.522 and M30[29] Lower Open 5.8: 156.490 — additional confluent lower-open levels below
5. D1[0] Low: 156.432 — today's daily low (stop reference for any long)
6. Current price: 156.691

My evaluation of the methodology
The philosophy is sound — here's why:
Rearden's observation is genuinely edge-generating. The highest and lowest H1 opens act as value anchors — institutional and algorithmic flows tend to cluster around open prices because they represent the market's decision points at the start of each hour. When price temporarily violates one of those levels and returns, you are fading an overextension with a clearly defined invalidation point (the daily extreme).
What makes it structurally strong:
The system is built on mean reversion with a defined range — the implicit assumption is that intraday price distributes within yesterday's and today's range more often than it makes sustained breakouts. This is statistically true across most Forex pairs most days. The "edge" is exactly what Rearden says: the close is usually inside the highest/lowest H1 open, so every day that holds, you had a potential win.
The most critical rule — and the hardest:
"Price must go above first, then come back down." This eliminates fade-the-trend entries on the way up, which are the account-killers. The confirmation (price returned to the level) filters out perhaps 40–50% of setups that would have run against you. The rule to not wait for bar close is equally important — it means you act on the touch, not after.
Current situation on this chart:
Price is sitting around 156.69, which is between the Lower Open 20 (156.722) and Lower Open 15 (156.672) levels. The big long setup would be if price trades down through 156.636 (the H4[31] Lower Open level), then reverses back up — that's your long entry. Your stop would be 156.432 (D1 Low), which is about 21 pips of risk. Size accordingly.
The short side is very challenging right now — price would need to push up above the daily high area (~156.986) and reverse, but that's within spitting distance of yesterday's high (156.948), which per the warning is a breakout zone requiring extreme caution. I would not be looking short here.
The honest risk assessment:
The method works because it's disciplined, not because every setup wins. The BE+1 and BE+5 rules mean your losers are capped at 1–5 pips once the trade is working, and you let winners run by trailing. Over a week of trading, a 40% win rate with this structure can be profitable. The danger is impatience — entering before price completes the probe-and-return sequence is what turns a statistical edge into losses.
The instruction to "sit on your hands" is the most practically useful thing in the entire ruleset.

From ChatGPT:

What makes this concept powerful is not that it predicts direction — it exploits reversion around intraday value acceptance.
The core edge is psychologically and structurally sound:

1. Most breakout attempts fail intraday.
2. Markets frequently probe beyond obvious levels to trigger stops and induce momentum traders.
3. After liquidity is taken, price often rotates back toward accepted value.
4. The highest H1 open and lowest H1 open act as “extreme value references” for the current session.

This is essentially a stop-run reversion model disguised in very simple rules.
The important thing is that the rules are brutally specific and mechanically consistent.
What the method is REALLY exploiting
The edge is not:

1. highest open
2. lowest open
3. H1 itself

The edge is:
1) Expansion → Failure → Reversion
Price:

1. expands beyond a reference
2. attracts breakout traders
3. sweeps liquidity
4. fails acceptance
5. returns back through the level

That sequence happens constantly in FX because currencies are heavily mean-reverting intraday.
Why the “open” matters
Opens are important because:

1. institutions benchmark sessions from opens
2. intraday positioning references opens
3. opens represent accepted pricing

The highest H1 open becomes:

1. the most expensive accepted hourly opening price of the day

The lowest H1 open becomes:

1. the cheapest accepted hourly opening price of the day

When price moves beyond those areas but cannot hold:

1. it often signals exhaustion
2. or liquidity collection

The genius part of the rules
Most traders misunderstand this system because they think:
“Sell the highest open.”
That is NOT the rule.
The rule is:

1. Price must first BREAK ABOVE
2. THEN RETURN BACK BELOW
3. THEN you enter

That distinction changes everything.
You are not fading strength blindly.
You are trading:

1. failed continuation
2. failed auction
3. trapped breakout traders

That is an enormous difference.
Why “do not wait for candle close” matters
This is also very important.
The system is exploiting:

1. the transition point
2. the reclaim
3. the failure

If you wait for confirmation candles:

1. much of the move is already gone
2. RR deteriorates
3. stop distance worsens

The method depends on entering near the level itself.
This is why execution precision matters.
Why the warning about yesterday’s high/low matters
This is one of the most important lines in the entire document.
When price breaks:

1. yesterday high
2. yesterday low
3. current day extreme

you are no longer dealing with ordinary intraday rotation.
You are now interacting with:

1. higher timeframe liquidity
2. breakout expansion
3. trend continuation potential

That means:

1. reversals become lower probability
2. volatility increases
3. stop runs become larger

The author explicitly warns:
“trade reversal with caution”
That is professional thinking.
Because trend days destroy mean-reversion systems.
The REAL edge
The real edge is likely this:
Most days:

1. price DOES NOT close above the highest H1 open
2. price DOES NOT close below the lowest H1 open

That is the statistical foundation.
This is a market auction principle.
Extremes are often rejected.
The method monetizes that rejection.
Why this survives over time
The quote from H. Rearden is correct.
These behaviors persist because they are rooted in:

1. human behavior
2. liquidity mechanics
3. fear
4. greed
5. stop placement
6. institutional execution

As long as:

1. breakout traders chase
2. stops cluster above highs/below lows
3. liquidity must be harvested

the behavior continues.
This is NOT a fragile indicator-based edge.
It is structural.
What separates winners from losers using this
The rules themselves are simple.
The difficulty is:

1. patience
2. execution discipline
3. not anticipating
4. not chasing
5. respecting trend conditions

Most traders lose because they:

1. short BEFORE sweep
2. buy BEFORE sweep
3. enter in the middle
4. ignore daily context
5. fade genuine trend expansion

The creator repeatedly says:
WAIT.
That is not motivational advice.
That is the actual edge.
Looking at your chart specifically
Your chart shows several important characteristics:
Good observations:

1. Price swept upward aggressively earlier in the session.
2. The current move appears rotational rather than impulsive.
3. The market is trading back beneath upper open references.
4. Your indicator correctly maps:
   1. Highest opens
   2. Lowest opens
   3. Session references
   4. Daily extremes

The chart also visually demonstrates something important:
The strongest moves occurred AFTER liquidity events.
That aligns perfectly with the system philosophy.
Professional evaluation
This is not nonsense.
This is not retail mythology.
This is actually a simplified discretionary liquidity model.
Underneath the simplicity are:

1. auction market principles
2. liquidity sweeps
3. failed breakouts
4. mean reversion
5. trapped traders
6. volatility expansion/reversion cycles

That is institutional-grade logic.
Weaknesses of the method
Every system has weaknesses.
This one struggles during:

1. genuine trend days
2. macro news expansion
3. central bank volatility
4. one-directional session flows
5. strong risk-on/risk-off environments

On those days:

1. price may keep accepting beyond the extreme
2. reversals fail repeatedly

That is why the stop placement at daily extremes matters.
The hidden professional insight
The system works best when:

1. higher timeframe liquidity has already been swept
2. price is overextended intraday
3. ADR is largely consumed
4. session timing aligns
5. momentum is decelerating

It works worst when:

1. London opens with expansion from consolidation
2. NY continues the same direction
3. market is trend-discovering

Final assessment
The methodology is legitimate.
Not because:

1. “highest open” is magical

But because it systematically exploits:

1. failed auctions
2. stop runs
3. intraday mean reversion
4. liquidity grabs
5. trapped breakout traders

The simplicity is deceptive.
Most traders cannot follow it because:

1. they anticipate
2. they cannot wait
3. they emotionally chase price
4. they fade strong trends too early

The edge is probably not in the line itself.
The edge is in:

1. WHEN price crosses it
2. HOW price crosses it
3. WHETHER acceptance fails afterward

That is real price action trading.

From Gemini AI:

This "Highest Open / Lowest Open" strategy is a masterclass in Mean Reversion and Liquidity Traps. As an elite trader, I recognize this for what it is: an exploitation of the "false breakout" or "stop run" that occurs when the market tests extreme structural points.
Here is my evaluation of the logic, the mechanics, and the psychological hurdles of this specific system.
1. The Core Philosophy: "Mean Reversion of Extremes"
The H. Rearden quote captures a fundamental truth: markets only do two things—trend or range. This system bets on the range or the failure of a breakout.
By targeting the H1 opens, you are targeting significant "decision points" where institutional volume often clusters. The "Edge" identified here is statistical: price rarely maintains a breakout above the day’s highest open or below its lowest open for the duration of the daily candle. It tends to "snap back" toward the median.
2. Technical Evaluation of the Mechanics
RuleMarket LogicExpert Commentary
Wait for the pierceAvoids "Front-running"This is crucial. By requiring price to go through the level and return, you are letting the "weak hands" get stopped out before you enter.
Highest/Lowest OpenStructural AnchorUsing H1 opens instead of highs/lows provides a more stable level that isn't as easily "gapped" by news spikes.
BE+1 at +5 PipsCapital PreservationThis is a "scalper's defense." It acknowledges that if the reversal doesn't happen quickly, the trade is likely invalid.
No Bar Close EntryMomentum CaptureWaiting for a close in a fast-moving reversal often means missing 50% of the move. This requires precision.
The "False Breakout" Visualized
3. The "Extreme Caution" Warning
The note about Yesterday's High/Low is the most important part of the text.

1. The Risk: When price breaks a daily extreme, it can trigger a "Freight Train" (a massive trend extension).
2. The Strategy: The rules tell you to trade the reversal, but the warning tells you that if the trend is too strong, the "Lowest Open" might just be a pit stop on the way to a 200-pip drop.

4. Psychological Barriers: The "Sitter"
You correctly identified that waiting is the hardest part.

1. FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out): You will see price approach the line and want to click "Sell" or "Buy" before it even touches. If you do, you have no protection against a breakout.
2. The "Moving Goalpost": Since the "Highest Open" can change throughout the day as new H1 bars form, you must be dynamic. This requires constant focus and the ability to admit your previous "extreme" line is no longer the extreme.

5. Final Verdict
This is a high-probability, low-RR (Risk/Reward) to medium-RR scalp strategy. Strengths:

1. It is purely objective. There is no "vibe" check; the line is either the highest open or it isn't.
2. It exploits human emotion (trapping breakout traders).
3. The risk is strictly defined by the daily high/low.

Weaknesses:

1. Low Volatility Days: Price may never reach the extremes, leading to "boredom trades."
2. News Events: During NFP or CPI, "Common Sense" (Rule 0) must override the system, as price will blow through these levels without looking back.

The Best Trader's Advice:
Sit on your hands. Let the market prove it's exhausted by watching it fail to hold above that Highest Open. If it returns to the line after a spike, that is the market telling you the buyers are finished. That is your entry.

From GROK:

**This is a solid, disciplined mean-reversion strategy focused on false breakouts of key intraday levels.** It exploits a very real market phenomenon: price often probes the highest/lowest H1 opens of the day (which act as dynamic magnets or "fair value" references) and then reverses, especially in ranging or low-volatility conditions. The quote from H. Rearden captures the essence perfectly — these breakout/reversal patterns are structural and persistent across timeframes.
### Core Strengths of the Strategy
- **Psychological/Structural Edge**: The highest and lowest H1 opens of the day are significant because they represent points where institutional or algorithmic flows may have initiated or defended positions early in hourly candles. Many traders chase the break, creating liquidity that smart money fades.
- **High Probability Setups When Rules Are Followed**: You only trade *after* a clear breach + retrace to the level. This filters out noise and catches failed breakouts.
- **Risk Management is Built-In**:
- SL at daily high/low (wide but logical for the setup).
- Strict BE+1 / BE+5 / trailing rules protect capital.
- "One trade per bar" and "Don't wait for bar close" (but still confirm the retrace) keeps it actionable on M5/M15.
- **Simplicity and Repeatability**: No fancy indicators needed. Just horizontal lines updated daily (at your broker's day start, e.g., 5 PM NY).
- **Psychological Discipline Requirement**: The emphasis on *waiting* (sit on hands) is gold. Most failures come from early entries.
This aligns with classic price action principles: markets test levels, grab stops/liquidity, and reverse. The "edge" noted — that price often closes between these two lines — is statistically observable in many pairs.
### Potential Weaknesses / Risks
- **Trending Markets**: In strong trends (especially news-driven USDJPY moves), price can blow through these levels without retracing, or the retrace fails and turns into continuation. Stop at daily extreme can get hit.
- **Low Liquidity Sessions**: Asia session or holidays can produce choppy fakeouts.
- **Broker Day Rollover**: You correctly note this — lines must be redrawn at the correct daily open (5 PM NY for many).
- **Patience Tax**: You will sit out many days. That's the point, but emotionally hard.
- **Slippage/Spread**: On M15 entries during volatility, execution matters on retail brokers.
**Overall Win Rate Expectation** (realistic, no backtest here): Probably 55-70% with good R:R if you have iron discipline, but drawdowns happen in strong trends. It's not a "holy grail" — it's a high-quality tool in a trader's kit.
### Evaluation of the Provided USDJPY M15 Chart
From the image:
- Price has been volatile with a sharp red drop (likely testing lower levels), followed by recovery into the blue zone.
- Current price ~**156.476**.
- There are clear horizontal lines (H1 opens, daily levels, ATR references).
- "Extreme Caution: Price Below Yesterday's Low" is visible — this is a high-risk environment for longs or aggressive shorts.
- The "TooSlow" label and rules on the chart reinforce the methodology.
**Current Setup Analysis (as of the chart ~ May 2026)**:
- USDJPY has been in a broader bullish bias but with corrections (common around 155-158 zone recently).
- If price is interacting with the **highest H1 open** from above (probing up then down), a short setup per rules could be valid.
- If near the **lowest H1 open** after downside breach + retrace up, look for longs.
- Watch daily high/low for SL placement.
- The big red candle and blue box suggest recent momentum shift — confirm the exact breach/retrace before entry. Avoid if it's a clean breakout (per warning).
**Trade Management Reminder**:
1. Wait for clear breach + return to level.
2. Enter on M5/M15 without waiting for close (but with confirmation candle).
3. Size small relative to the wide SL.
4. Move to BE aggressively as described.
### Final Verdict as the Best Forex Trader
This is **excellent for patient, rule-based traders** who excel at waiting and executing clean price action. It’s not for scalpers chasing every tick or trend followers. Combine it with:
- Higher timeframe bias (D1/H4 structure).
- News avoidance (NFP, FOMC, BoJ interventions — USDJPY is news-sensitive).
- Volume/profile context if available.
- Journal every setup (win/loss + why).
The method's longevity on forums like Forex Factory shows it works for those who don't modify the rules. Respect the "do not add/subtract" advice.
If you share the current highest/lowest H1 opens, exact price action at the moment, or a new chart, I can give a precise live setup evaluation. Trade the rules, not your opinion — and bank those pips when the edge appears.

Who is taking the 10 trade challenge the week of MAY 10, 2026?

During the challenge, you are only to trade the same pair.

Beginners do not get to trade multiple pairs until they have mastered trading one single pair.

GREEN PIPS TO ALL.
Cheers!

PLEASE READ ALL OF POST #1

Attachment g
Waiting ema 20 for continuation down.

Hello fellow traders, I actualy started the 10 trade challenge already at last friday.

First of all, thank you TooSlow for this great and simple system and keeping this thread alife for this long. That should be evidence enough for everyone that this system can be traded profitable.

As someone who is already trading reversals (123 Formations -> no, not the 1.2.3 TooSlow is also trading) this is a fresh point of view.

I will trade the EUR/USD London and parts of the NY Session.

My first Trade:

BE +1


Second Trade:

BE +1


Nothing too fancy but im happy about some pips.

I will keep you updated

If you are new to HOLO, may I suggest you take 5 pips rather than move your stop to BE+1. After you gain experience, you should be able to gauge whether or not the price will continue to move in your direction.

Cheers!

Thanks for the suggestion! Ive done 6 Trades so far and im currently up +1,5R. If I had taken profit at +5 every trade so far, i would be up 4R. Not bad for trading this the first time. It does look very promising, but i definetly need to get used to the tight pip range. The 1:1 RR seems quite good for this strategie, i will definetly test this longer.

Third Trade:
BE +1

Fourth Trade:
-10


Fifth Trade: (changed to 5 pip TP here)
+5


Sixth Trade:
+5

Here is what it would have looked like with a 5 pip tp:

Can you please share your template here. Thanks.

There is also an indicator in tradingview, if that helps at all

Thank you to share your strategy.

Should i not to trade if price break previous daily high/low? Or can i do it ? what to mean to trade with caution in that situation?

Can you help me to know if this trade was right or if i wrong something?