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The Swamp

  • #127,641
  • May 6, 2026 10:23am May 6, 2026 10:23am
Quoting johncen
{quote} gator April was closed below 1743 on my end. but agreed that no need to retrace and 1785 doesnt look like a block to bull, 1835 will be in sight again
I should had said it different. PA is above 1510. pa is above 1726 and 1744. The usdx has made closes below a year number. The eu last week was below 1744 and 26. Now its back above. There may be a range 1510-1744, or a smaller one 1726-1795.6. The usdx and eu closed in conflict. But the bearish trends on the usdx are still not broken and within the ranges. The exception the day is green still but testing support. If and when it breaks the eu. Should close above 1744. That should pressure 1795.6. That could open even a HH. 1.2-1.21 another range. If 1.1744 is the pivot. Then 1.2xx can be the range. Shorts want to be below 1744 and 1726. If not we may see that rise. Its already may. The summer range may be around for a while. Plus the war with Iran. The u.s.a. has oil. The idiot closed 20% of the worlds oil supply. That dynamic is playing out. He pissed the entire world off. Now he is trying to sell oil to the world. That pressure is costing his home base at the pump. It has not topped. There has to be some mutiny talk behind the scenes.
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  • #127,642
  • May 6, 2026 6:38pm May 6, 2026 6:38pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I should had said it different. PA is above 1510. pa is above 1726 and 1744. The usdx has made closes below a year number. The eu last week was below 1744 and 26. Now its back above. There may be a range 1510-1744, or a smaller one 1726-1795.6. The usdx and eu closed in conflict. But the bearish trends on the usdx are still not broken and within the ranges. The exception the day is green still but testing support. If and when it breaks the eu. Should close above 1744. That should pressure 1795.6. That could open even a HH. 1.2-1.21 another...
daily closed above 1743.
it has room to go higher
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #127,643
  • May 6, 2026 8:14pm May 6, 2026 8:14pm
Quoting johncen
{quote} daily closed above 1743. it has room to go higher
Its looking bullish the usdx also closed below 98.03. Just in case. Don't overlook a sweep to 1726 ish.. There may be some liquid there to push it up.
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  • #127,644
  • May 7, 2026 8:12am May 7, 2026 8:12am
Quoting johncen
{quote} daily closed above 1743. it has room to go higher
it may need to get back to 1744 55. It don't seem to be in a hurry. 1744 is the big one. It may have some liquid below in that 1726-44 area. I got as bullish. But it may have that attraction toward 1744/55.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #127,645
  • May 7, 2026 9:30am May 7, 2026 9:30am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} it may need to get back to 1744 55. It don't seem to be in a hurry. 1744 is the big one. It may have some liquid below in that 1726-44 area. I got as bullish. But it may have that attraction toward 1744/55.
not today.. too late
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  • #127,646
  • May 7, 2026 11:04am May 7, 2026 11:04am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} not today.. too late
I think 1744 can support. but it may want 1729/26.. If bullish it should take back 1744. Just speculation on my part.
Too late was meant for LC.
AUD may reach for .7229 is another
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #127,647
  • May 7, 2026 5:53pm May 7, 2026 5:53pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I think 1744 can support. but it may want 1729/26.. If bullish it should take back 1744. Just speculation on my part. Too late was meant for LC. AUD may reach for .7229 is another
The day closed below 1727 and1744. That is the wrong side of the tracks for me to long. *tomorrow is Friday, so 1767 has a chance sometime on Friday. If it manages it, it would be back above 1744. Its already ran to 1767 this week. To me below -1726 is bearish. It may just be this range around 1744 keeping pa near
Scalp seems to be the trade.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #127,648
  • May 7, 2026 5:57pm May 7, 2026 5:57pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Its looking bullish the usdx also closed below 98.03. Just in case. Don't overlook a sweep to 1726 ish.. There may be some liquid there to push it up.
It did not push it up. I thought 1726 area may. But nothing to see here.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #127,649
  • May 8, 2026 4:12am May 8, 2026 4:12am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} The day closed below 1727 and1744. That is the wrong side of the tracks for me to long. *tomorrow is Friday, so 1767 has a chance sometime on Friday. If it manages it, it would be back above 1744. Its already ran to 1767 this week. To me below -1726 is bearish. It may just be this range around 1744 keeping pa near Scalp seems to be the trade.
It did make it back to 1767. It may run back down to 1740.. in that same 1744 area when tired, maybe 1736/44 area . If this supports it back above the 1744 big number.
I tried to wait for 1775 before considering a run to 1740/44 scalp. But it is showing it can be tired already. Its not far enough above 1744.. I will wait for that and see if it looks tired 1775 or higher.
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  • #127,650
  • May 8, 2026 7:15am May 8, 2026 7:15am
If it makes a run closer to 174x it may run back to 1775 for LC. I may not have a chance to get a long signal.
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  • #127,651
  • May 8, 2026 7:35am May 8, 2026 7:35am
Quoting gatorinla
If it makes a run closer to 174x it may run back to 1775 for LC. I may not have a chance to get a long signal.
just that fast it went to 1754. not deep enough to get a signal for 1775. I don't know if it can come back to 1735/44.. I will wait. But it already did this today.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #127,652
  • May 8, 2026 10:14am May 8, 2026 10:14am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} just that fast it went to 1754. not deep enough to get a signal for 1775. I don't know if it can come back to 1735/44.. I will wait. But it already did this today.
daily weekly close matters, for now still bullish
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #127,653
  • May 8, 2026 10:26am May 8, 2026 10:26am
Quoting johncen
{quote} daily weekly close matters, for now still bullish
A usdx -97.55 day close is best if you want eu to rise.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #127,654
  • May 8, 2026 10:32am May 8, 2026 10:32am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} A usdx -97.55 day close is best if you want eu to rise. {image}
i m favouring eu to drop given my daily bearish preference but if the week closed above 1743 that puts me off
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #127,655
  • May 8, 2026 11:21am May 8, 2026 11:21am
Quoting johncen
{quote} i m favouring eu to drop given my daily bearish preference but if the week closed above 1743 that puts me off
+1.1795 to me is the next things bulls want. But 1.174x/1.1726 was an attraction earlier. PA earlier was exhausted just below 1775. But it also had that attraction to 1775 LC. Its not exhausted like it was then. The drop to 175x refreshed it. But at 1795 it may look different. That earlier exhaustion didn't yield 1744/26. Probably because of the LC pull keeping it near 1775. That now void could let it retrace. Its bullish to me. ADR is 1790.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #127,656
  • May 8, 2026 11:38pm May 8, 2026 11:38pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} A usdx -97.55 day close is best if you want eu to rise. {image}
the usdx broke day trend support. That is positive for eu to rise.
buying eu retraces look to be good. eu 1795 may stall or give a little retrace. There may be some attraction toward 1744. But it looks bullish to me with or without that retrace.
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  • #127,657
  • May 9, 2026 9:50pm May 9, 2026 9:50pm
Monday I think bullish, but give a decent chance at the 1.1745 area first. If this is true. And pa does bounce after. Above 1774 and 1797 may be the bulls breaking out. The 1795 may be tough.. But if sustained above, then 1918 may gain a path.
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  • #127,658
  • Edited 10:15pm May 9, 2026 9:53pm | Edited 10:15pm
I see some diesel in my area over 5$.. Gas near 4$. If we are selling it to the world. It has no choice but to rise. It makes no difference if we get more oil in 6 weeks or more. Refineries are already maxed out in the USA. We cant make more than what's already being made. We are one fire/explosion or some unpredicted shutdown. From a major refined product shortage. Oil companies can make less fuel, and still make more money. Plus we got the Hantavirus out there. That cat may be out the bag since it can take 6 weeks before systems. People left the boat and got on planes. We also have a cruse ship with Norovirus. That Hantavirus has about a 40% death rate. much worse than covid's early days of 2-6.8%. A flight attendant has it. There is no telling how many people she came in contact with. And those people passed through airports and flew all over the world. This may end up sucking. More so because our moron of a leader cut the CDC jobs that tract these virus. Plus gutted many other CDC jobs, and cut WHO funding. You cant make this shit up.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #127,659
  • May 9, 2026 10:53pm May 9, 2026 10:53pm
Quoting gatorinla
Monday I think bullish, but give a decent chance at the 1.1745 area first. If this is true. And pa does bounce after. Above 1774 and 1797 may be the bulls breaking out. The 1795 may be tough.. But if sustained above, then 1918 may gain a path.
thinking something similiar here 1743 has to hold, then bull can go higher
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #127,660
  • May 9, 2026 10:54pm May 9, 2026 10:54pm
Quoting gatorinla
I see some diesel in my area over 5$.. Gas near 4$. If we are selling it to the world. It has no choice but to rise. It makes no difference if we get more oil in 6 weeks or more. Refineries are already maxed out in the USA. We cant make more than what's already being made. We are one fire/explosion or some unpredicted shutdown. From a major refined product shortage. Oil companies can make less fuel, and still make more money. Plus we got the Hantavirus out there. That cat may be out the bag since it can take 6 weeks before systems. People left the...
Oh I said 40%. That high number is a little deceiving. The 40% is if you get modern treatment, anti virials, medical personal, and ventilators. The usa has about 200k ventilators. Defiantly nor enough for a 330 million population. So if you take out 40% of the medical staff. That 40% is closer to 100% because we don't have enough people to bury the dead. Rodent populations will explode. They will get the disease from the dead and spread it to the rest.
The 40% mortality rate is generally the figure with modern, aggressive medical intervention. If you remove the intensive care unit (ICU) from the equation, the numbers shift from "grim" to "nearly absolute."
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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