Morning Briefing

07 May 26. 0832 IST or 0302 GMT or 2302 EST

Good Morning

The Dollar Index fell sharply after comments from President Trump that there is great progress on talks of de-escalation with Iran. The index can have scope to test 97/96 before bouncing back higher. Euro holds above 1.17 and can rise to 1.18-1.1850 while the EURJPY and USDJPY have fallen too and can test 182 and 157/156 respectively. USDCNY has fallen too but needs to sustain above 6.80 else can head towards 6.78/75 region. Pound has risen above 1.36 and can head towards 1.37 if it sustains. Aussie can test 0.73 or higher in the near term while trading well above 0.72. USDINR tested 94.56, breaking below our expected low of 94.80 yesterday. Further dip looks possible today to 94.25-94.00.

The US Treasury Yields have come down sharply. News on US-Iran nearing a deal to end the war has dragged the oil price lower. The Treasury yields have also come down on the back of it. The yields have room to fall further from here to test their support. After that they can reverse higher and resume the upmove. The German yields have also come down sharply. But supports are there to limit the downside and keep the broader uptrend intact. The 10Yr GoI has declined sharply. It has room to dip further before reversing higher again.

Global equities have turned strongly bullish as easing Middle East tensions continue to support sentiment. Dow is testing 50000 and can rise towards 51000-51500 on a sustained breakout. DAX may extend gains towards 25500-26000. Nifty is moving higher towards 24500, and a break above it can open further upside towards 25500-26000. Nikkei remains strongly positive with upside towards 63500-64000. Shanghai continues to strengthen and may rise towards 4200 in the near term.

Commodity markets remain volatile amid improving Middle East peace talks. Brent and WTI have corrected sharply and may decline further towards $90-$85 and $85-$80 respectively if key supports break. In contrast, precious metals have strengthened, with Gold likely to rise towards $4800-$4900 while above $4500 and Silver towards $80-$85 while above $70. Copper remains strongly bullish and can rise towards $6.25-$6.30. Natural Gas is likely to stay range bound within the $2.80-$2.55 zone for now.

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08 May 26. 0830 IST or 0300 GMT or 2300 EST

Good Morning

The Dollar Index has bounced today but can have scope for a dip while below 98.50. The EURUSD can trade within the 1.1650-1.1780/1.18 region for the next few sessions. EURJPY has risen today but could still have scope for a fall while below 184.50. USDJPY on the other hand needs to see a sustained break above 157.30 to rise further towards 158+ else can fall back to 156.50-156. USDCNY could test 6.80, thereafter whether it would bounce back or decline lower is to be seen. Pound has dipped below 1.36. A rise back above 1.36 can be eventually bullish for the currency. Aussie can test 0.73 or higher in the near term while above 0.72. USDINR declined to 94.05 exactly in line with our expectations but faster on intervention from the RBI. But now, we need to see if 94 holds as immediate support or allows for a further dip to lower support at 93.50 (more likely).

The US Treasury and the German Yields have risen back very well. Support is holding well for both of them in line with our expectation. That keeps intact our broader bullish view. We can expect both the German and US Treasury yields to go higher in the coming weeks. The US unemployment data release today will need a close watch. The 10Yr GoI has bounced slightly but may not sustain. It remains weak to dip more in the near-term before a fresh rise happens.

Dow needs a sustained break above 50000 to rise towards 51000-51500, otherwise the broader 50000-49000 range may continue. DAX has corrected sharply but remains supported above 24250 with chances of a rebound towards 25250-25500. Nifty has pulled back after testing 24500 and may continue to trade within the broad 24500-23500 range. Nikkei remains firm above 60000 with upside towards 63500-64000. Shanghai also continues to hold a positive bias towards 4200 in the near term.

Brent needs a sustained break below $100 to fall towards $95-$90, while WTI must hold below $95 to decline further towards $90-$85. Gold is likely to rise towards $4800-$4900 while above $4500, and Silver extending gains towards $85-$90 while above $70. Copper remains positive above $6 and can rise towards $6.25-$6.30. Natural Gas is likely to stay range bound within the $2.80-$2.55 zone for now.

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11 May 26. 0817 IST or 0247 GMT or 2247 EST

Good Morning

The Dollar Index trades near 98 but has fair scope to decline towards 97/96 while the Euro can rise towards 1.18/1.1850 soon. The EURJPY can rise to 112 or higher while above 111. USDJPY can re-attempt to test 158+ levels while above 157. USDCNY has declined below 6.80 and has fair scope for a dip to 6.78/75 soon. Pound has risen above 1.36 and can head towards 1.37 if the rise sustains. Aussie can test 0.73 or higher in the near term on a confirmed break above resistance near 0.7250. USDINR needs to remain below 94.50 to dip back towards 94.30/20 or lower; else we may see a sharp rise back towards 95 or higher.

The US Treasury Yields are holding well above their support and have risen in the early trades today. Rise in the oil price is helping the yields. While the yields sustain above their support, the bias will remain bullish, and more rise is possible. The German Yields are hovering above their support. We expect them to sustain above their support and rise back in the coming days. The outlook remains bullish. The 10Yr GoI has risen well on Friday. Failure to get a strong follow-through rise today will still keep it vulnerable to fall first before seeing a sustained rise. We will have to wait and watch.

Dow has reversed after failing to break above 50000 and may continue within the 50000-49000 range, while DAX has turned weaker and can decline towards 24000. Nifty remains relatively stable above 24150 and can rise towards 24500 within the broader 24500-23500 range. Nikkei has corrected sharply after recent highs but can bounce back towards 64000 while above 62000. Shanghai remains strong and may extend gains towards 4225-4250 in the near term.

Brent may continue within the $95-$115 range, while WTI can trade between $90-$110 until clearer directional cue emerges. Gold needs a break above $4800 to target $4900-$5000, otherwise it risks slipping towards $4600-$4500. Silver remains positive with upside towards $85-$90. Copper has turned strongly bullish and can rise further towards $6.50-$6.60. Natural Gas has moved above $2.80 but may face resistance near $3, keeping the broader $3-$2.50 range intact.

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12 May 26. 0832 IST or 0302 GMT or 2302 EST

Good Morning

The Dollar Index can decline towards 97/96 with the Euro likely to head towards 1.1850-1.19. The EURJPY can rise to 113-114 while the rising momentum continuea. USDJPY can re-attempt to test 158+ levels while above 157. USDCNY trades below 6.80 and has fair scope for a dip to 6.78/75 soon. Pound needs to sustain above 1.36 to head towards 1.37. Aussie can test 0.73 or higher in the near term on a confirmed break above resistance near 0.7250. USDINR needs to remain below 95.50 to dip back towards 95-94.70; else we may continue to see a rise from current levels.

The US Treasury Yields continue to move up. Our bullish view is intact. The yields can rise more in the coming days, The German Yields have risen back well from their support as expected. That keeps intact our bullish view. More rise is on the cards. The 10Yr GoI has risen further. Immediate resistance has to be broken to move further higher. Else the yield can fall back. Need to wait and watch.

Dow can remain within the 50000-49000 range while staying below 50000. DAX continues to weaken in line with expectations and can test 24000 soon. Nifty has closed near 23,800 yesterday and is likely to trade within the broader 24,500-23,500 range for some time. Nikkei remains bullish above 62000 and can bounce towards 64000 or higher in the coming weeks. Shanghai has risen sharply in line with expectations and can extend gains further towards 4250 in the near term.

Brent and WTI remain highly volatile with no clear direction visible yet, while broader ranges of $95-$115 and $90-$110 respectively can hold for some time. Gold needs a sustained break above $4800 to strengthen further towards $4900-$5000, else a corrective fall towards $4600-$4500 is possible. Silver has risen sharply in line with expectations and can extend gains towards $90-$95 in the near term. Copper remains bullish after testing $6.51 and can rise further towards $6.60 or higher. Natural Gas is approaching the key $3 resistance, and while this holds, the price can fall back again within the broader $2.50-$3 range.

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13 May 26. 0835 IST or 0305 GMT or 2305 EST

Good Morning

The Dollar Index may trade within 98.50-97.50, while the Euro could remain above support at 1.17 and move up slowly towards 1.19. The EURJPY can rise to 186-188 while above 184, while the EURINR may face rejection from 112.50 and dip lower in the next few sessions. USDJPY needs to break above 158 to slowly move higher towards 159-160, else a rejection from 158 can drag it down to 157/156 in the next few sessions. Watch price action near 158. USDCNY is bearish to 6.78/75. Pound may range between 1.3650-1.3450 while Aussie can test 0.73 before facing any rejection from there. USDINR may test 96 while above 95.50. Thereafter, a decline can be possible on central bank intervention,if seen.

The US Treasury Yields have risen sharply after the inflation data release yesterday. The US Headline CPI rose 3.78% in April, up from 3.29% seen in March. The rise in the yield is happening in line with our expectation. There is room to rise more. The German yields are getting a strong follow-through rise. That keeps intact our bullish view and the yields can rise more from here. The 10Yr GoI is hovering above its resistance. A sustained rise above this resistance is needed to go higher and avoid falling back. It is a wait and watch situation.

Dow can continue within the 50000-49000 range while below 50000. DAX has bounced after testing 24000, but a sustained break lower is needed for further decline. Nifty has weakened after breaking below 23,500 and can fall towards 23,200-23,000. Nikkei has recovered from below 62000 and can bounce towards 64000 if the support holds. Shanghai remains strong and can rise further towards 4250.

Brent is likely to test the upper end of $95-$115 range and WTI can sustain within $90-$110 range. Gold remains weak below $4800 and needs a sustained break higher to target $4900-$5000, else a fall towards $4600-$4500 remains possible. Silver has seen a dip, but the broader outlook stays bullish for a rise towards $90-$95. Copper remains strongly bullish after surging to $6.66 and can rise further towards $7 or higher while holding above $6. Natural Gas has fallen back after failing near the $3 resistance, and the range of $2.50-$3.00 is likely to hold for now.

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14 May 26. 0836 IST or 0306 GMT or 2306 EST

Good Morning

The Dollar Index is trading below the crucial level of 98.50/60, which needs to hold to produce a decline to 97.50/97 in the near term. Euro has support at 1.17, a bounce from where can open up chances of testing 1.18+ levels. The EURJPY can rise to 186-188 while above 184, while the EURINR may fall to 111.50 while below resistance at 112.50. USDJPY needs to break above 158 to slowly move higher towards 159-160, else a rejection from 158 can drag it down to 157/156 in the next few sessions. Watch price action near 158. USDCNY is bearish to 6.78/75. Pound may range between 1.3650-1.3450 while Aussie can test 0.73 before facing any rejection from there. USDINR may test crucial resistance region of 95.90-96 before facing rejection that can take the price down towards 95.

The US Treasury Yields have come off from their highs. A near-term dip looks likely before the yields reverse higher and resume their broader upmove. The German Yields remain higher but stable. The outlook remains bullish and there is room to rise more. The 10Yr GoI is holding higher. The price action leaves the bias positive. That keeps the door open to see more rise in the coming days.

Dow can continue to trade within the 50000-49000 range while below 50000. DAX has bounced back and needs to sustain above 24000 to avoid a deeper fall towards 23500-23000 and move higher towards 24500. Nifty failed to hold higher levels and remains vulnerable to a decline towards 23,200-23,000. Nikkei remains bullish above 62000 and can rise towards 64500-65000 after breaking above 64000. Shanghai has reversed sharply from 4255, and while below 4250, a further decline towards 4175-4150 remains likely.

Brent and WTI have dipped slightly but the broader bullish outlook remains intact within their respective $95-$115 and $90-$110 ranges. Gold continues to trade below the key $4800 resistance and needs a sustained break higher to target $4900-$5000, else a fall towards $4600-$4500 remains possible. Silver outlook stays positive for a rise towards $90-$95. Copper has corrected lower, but while above $6.40, the broader bullish view towards $7 remains intact. Natural Gas can continue to trade within the broader $2.50-$3 range while staying below $3.

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15 May 26. 0819 IST or 0249 GMT or 2249 EST

Good Morning

Strong US Retail Sales and the taking over of Kevin Warsh as the new FED chair. Has boosted the Dollar Index for a sharp rise beyond 98.60 and led the Euro to decline below 1.17, contrary to our expectations. USDJPY has also rallied well and could head towards 159-160.50 soon, while the Aussie and Pound have declined well and are headed towards 0.71 and 1.3250, respectively. The EURJPY can trade within the 183.80-185.50 region, while the EURINR may test support at 111.50/35. USDCNY has recovered a bit but is bearish while below 6.80. USDINR may test the crucial resistance region of 95.90-96-96.30 before facing rejection that can take the price down towards 95.50-95.

The US Treasury Yields have risen back sharply. The expected rise is happening without seeing the intermediate dip that was mentioned yesterday. The German yields have come down sharply. They are oscillating in a sideways range now. A bullish breakout and a rise is expected to happen eventually. The 10Yr GoI is struggling to breach the intermediate resistance. That keeps alive the chances of seeing a dip first before resuming the broader upmove.

Dow is attempting to break above 50000, which could trigger a rise towards 51000, but otherwise the broader 50000-49000 range may continue. DAX has corrected sharply after testing 24595 but could find support near 24000, keeping the 24000-25000 range intact. Nifty has turned stronger than expected and can rise towards 24000 while holding above 23,300. Nikkei is attempting to break below 62000, and a sustained break lower could drag it towards 61500-61000, else the 62000-64000 range may continue. Shanghai continues to weaken in line with expectations and can decline further towards 4100-4050.

Brent and WTI have dipped slightly but can still move higher within their broader $95-$115 and $90-$110 ranges respectively. Gold has weakened after failing to break above $4800 and may decline further towards $4500. Silver has also turned weaker after failing near $90 and can fall towards $80-$75 in the near term. Copper has corrected sharply due to concerns over slowing Chinese demand and may decline further towards $6.20-$6.00. Natural Gas continues to trade within the broader $2.50-$3 range while remaining below the key $3 resistance.

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18 May 26. 0809 IST or 0239 GMT or 2239 EST

Good Morning

Strong Dollar Index suggests a possible rise to 100-101 while Euro would test 1.16 and a break lower could trigger a decline towards 1.15/1.14. USDJPY is almost near 159 and a break higher would take it towards 160-161 soon. Aussie and Pound have declined well on strong Dollar and could be headed towards 0.71/70 and 1.3250/32 respectively. The EURJPY can trade within the 183.80-185.50 region, while the EURINR may test support at 111.35, a break below which would take it lower towards 110.50-110. USDCNY has recovered well above 6.80 and ca now test 6.83/84. USDINR had tested 96.1425 last week before closing below 96. Strong Dollar against other major currencies raises concern for a possible rise in the USDINR also beyond 96.00-96.14 today.

The US Treasury Yields have surged on Friday and are now trading well beyond our expected levels. While the momentum sustains, the yields have potential to rise more in the coming days. The German Yields have made a bullish breakout as expected. They have room to rise more from here. The 10Yr GoI has risen, breaking above its intermediate resistance. While this break sustains, the yield can go further higher.

Equities broader look weak for the near term. The Dow has come down failing to sustain the break. It can fall within its 48700-50200 range. DAX looks vulnerable to break 23600 and fall to 23000. Nikkei is coming down as expected. It has room to see 60000-59000 on the downside. Shanghai remains lower and can fall to 4050-4030. Nifty can fall to 23000 on a break below 23600.

Crude prices have surged following news of strike on nuclear power plant in UAE. Crude prices are poised for a rise while the precious metals lose steam on strong US Dollar today. Gold and Silver have declined well and look further bearish towards $4400/4200 and $70/65, respectively. Copper also looks bearish towards 6.00-5.80. Natural Gas has risen to $3 and needs to sustain higher to head towards $3.25 or higher.
Brent and WTI have dipped slightly but can still move higher within their broader $95-$115 and $90-$110 ranges, respectively. Gold has weakened after failing to break above $4800 and may decline further towards $4500. Silver has also turned weaker after failing near $90 and can fall towards $80-$75 in the near term. Copper has corrected sharply due to concerns over slowing Chinese demand and may decline further towards $6.20-$6.00. Natural Gas continues to trade within the broader $2.50-$3 range while remaining below the key $3 resistance.

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19 May 26. 0812 IST or 0242 GMT or 2242 EST

Good Morning

Fresh hopes from the US-Iran negotiations have brought down the Dollar Index, which could now target 98.50/98 while below 99. The Euro could trade within its earlier range of 1.16-1.1750. USDJPY is almost near 159, and a break higher would take it towards 160-161 soon. Aussie and Pound have risen back well, and if the rise sustains, they can test 0.72-0.7250 and 1.36/3650, respectively. The EURJPY can trade above 184 and slowly rise towards 185/186 in the coming sessions. EURINR may hold well above support at 111.35, but could see a dip today if the rise in the USDINR remains curbed. USDCNY has fallen back below 6.80 and can now test 6.78/75. USDINR may hold below 96.50 and see a pullback today towards 96 or lower.

The US Treasury and the German Yields have come down slightly. The Treasury yields have support to limit the downside. While the support holds, the bias is positive to see more rise in the coming weeks. The German yields on the other hand have to rise back immediately in order to go higher and avoid more fall. We will have to wait and see. The 10Yr GoI is heading higher as expected. An extended rise is also looking likely now.

The Dow Jones has risen back but remains well within its range. It can continue to oscillate in the sideways range, and we will have to wait for a breakout to get clarity. DAX has risen back sharply. But a strong follow-through rise is needed to negate the danger of the fall to 23000. Nikkei and Shanghai are struggling to rise back and remain weak. They can fall to 60000-59000 and 4050-4030 respectively. The Nifty has made a strong recovery from its low yesterday. A strong follow-through rise above 23800 will help it go higher and avoid the danger of seeing 23000.

Brent and WTI have dipped on fresh hopes from the US-Iran negotiations but are likely to remain elevated and volatile. Gold and Silver seem to be holding above $4500 and $75, respectively for now and may see a slow rise in the near term. Copper has found some support at $6.20, above which it can rise to $6.50. Natural Gas may continue to trade within the broader $2.80-$3.25 range.

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20 May 26. 0816 IST or 0246 GMT or 2246 EST

Good Morning

The Dollar Index has rebounded yet again, moving above 99.00 and dragging the Euro below 1.16. USDJPY can attempt to test 160-161 before a reversal is seen from there. For now, the view is bullish above 158. Aussie and Pound have declined back after a brief bounce seen earlier. Both currencies are headed towards 0.70 and 1.33, respectively, from where a bounce can be expected. The EURJPY can trade within the 185-184 region. EURINR may trade within 112.50-111.50, while USDCNY could fluctuate within the 6.79-6.83 region for the rest of the week and the next. USDINR has scope to rise to 97 if it sustains trade above 96.50.

The US Treasury and the German Yields have risen back very well. The Treasury yields are holding well above their support. That keeps our broader bullish view intact. The yields can rise more. The German yields can also rise further if they get a strong follow-through rise from here. The 10Yr GoI has dipped. But bias remains positive to see more rise. Supports are there to limit the downside if it dips further.

Equities broadly remain weak and slightly mixed. The Dow Jones can come down towards the lower end of its 48700-50200 range. DAX looks mixed after it failed to sustain the intraday rise yesterday. It can go either way from here. Nikkei is coming down towards 59000 in line with our expectation. Shanghai has risen above its resistance and can rise further if it sustains higher. However, a rise above 4200 is needed to turn the big picture bullish. Nifty is struggling to breach 23800 which is necessarily needed to go up. Else the danger of falling back to 23300-23000 will still be there.

Crude prices have risen back and could be headed towards $115/120 soon while precious metals have tanked and could be headed towards $4400 (Gold) and $70 (Silver). Copper has dipped too and can test $6, while there is a slight rise in the Natural Gas prices above $3 and can rise in the near term targeting $3.25.

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21 May 26. 0801 IST or 0231 GMT or 2231 EST

Good Morning

Most currencies look ranged within specific levels. The Dollar Index and Euro are likely to trade within 99.50-98.50 and 1.17-1.1550 region while USDJPY may face rejection near 160-160.50 and dip back towards 159/158. Aussie and Pound can trade within 0.71-0.7250 and 1.35-1.33 regions respectively. The EURJPY can trade within the 185-184 region. EURINR is headed towards 113 while USDCNY could fluctuate within the 6.79-6.83 region for the rest of the week. USDINR has scope to hold below 97 and dip towards 96.50 or lower.


The US Treasury and the German Yields have come down sharply following the fall in oil price. The Treasury yields are just above their key support. They have to bounce back from here to avoid more fall and go higher. We will have to wait and watch. The German Yields have come down below their key levels and can fall more in the coming days. The expected rise will get delayed now. The 10Yr GoI is struggling to breach its resistance. A near-term dip looks likely to be seen first before the next leg of rise happens.


Dow has bounced back sharply but remains vulnerable to a fall towards the lower end of its 48700-50200 range, with risks of a deeper decline towards 48000 needing close watch. DAX outlook remains mixed with equal chances of rising towards 25000-25200 or falling towards 24000-23800. Nifty has strengthened above 23,600 and can rise further towards 23,800 if the support holds. Nikkei has rebounded sharply contrary to expectations and may extend gains towards 62500-63000. Shanghai remains mildly positive above 4150 and can rise towards 4200, but a sustained break higher is needed for stronger bullishness.


Brent and WTI declined sharply amid hopes of a possible US-Iran peace deal and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, but the broader outlook remains bullish for a rise towards $115-$120. Gold and Silver continue to remain bearish and can fall further towards $4400 and $70 respectively. Copper has seen a bounce, but while below $6.60, a decline towards $6.00 remains likely. Natural Gas needs a sustained rise above $3.25 to strengthen further towards $3.50 or higher.


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22 May 26. 0751 IST or 0221 GMT or 2221 EST

Good Morning

The Dollar Index holds strong above 99, pulling back Euro towards 1.16. A dip below 1.16 would open door for further fall to 1.1550. USDJPY may rise towards 160-160.50 where it can face rejection. Aussie and Pound can trade within 0.71-0.7250 and 1.35-1.33 regions respectively. The EURJPY can trade within the 185-184 region for now while the EURINR has come off sharply to 111.70 on decline in USDINR yesterday. It would be crucial to see if it can bounce back or head lower towards 111. USDCNY could fluctuate within the 6.79-6.83 region for some more time. USDINR fell to 96 as expected. A further decline below 96 is needed for a dip to 95.50.

The US Treasury and the German Yields remain lower. The Treasury yields are poised near their support. They have to rise back immediately to avoid more fall going forward. We will have to wait and watch. The German Yields on the other hand have room to dip further before they resume their broader upmove. The 10Yr GoI has held well above its support as expected and has risen back sharply. A strong follow-through rise from here can take it further higher.

Dow has turned bullish after breaking above 50200 and can rise further towards 51000-51500 if it sustains above 50000. DAX is testing 25000, and a break higher can take it towards 25500, while failure may drag it back towards 23500. Nifty failed to hold above 23,800 but remains stable above 23,600, keeping the possibility open for another rise towards 23,800-24,000. Nikkei continues to strengthen in line with expectations and can rise further towards 64000. Shanghai has weakened sharply contrary to expectations and remains vulnerable to a fall towards 4050-4000.

Crude prices remain weak in the near term, but the broader outlook still supports a rise towards $115-$120. Gold and Silver continue to remain bearish and can decline further towards $4400 and $70 respectively. Copper remains weak below $6.60 and may test $6.00 in the near term. Natural Gas has higher and while it holds above $3, a rise towards $3.20-$3.25 can be seen in the coming sessions.

Read full morning briefing @ https://kshitij.com/morning-briefing

25 May 26. 0810 IST or 0240 GMT or 2240 EST

Good Morning

The Dollar Index has dipped on comments from Trump that the US-Iran deal is close to signing an agreement which could favor most other currencies today against the Dollar. Euro, Aussie, Pound, Yuan and Rupee could face some strength in the near term towards 1.17/1.18, 0.7250/0.73, 1.36/37 and 6.76/75 respectively while USDJPY may trade within 160-158 region. EURJPY can face rejection from 185 and dip towards 182 else needs a sustained rise above 185 to rally higher. USDINR has scope to decline to 95.25-95.00 in the near term which could be a strong support.

The US Treasury and the German Yields continue to trade lower. Both have room to fall further from here to test their support. We expect them to rise back from their support and resume the broader uptrend. The 10Yr GoI seems to be struggling to get a strong follow-through rise. It can remain range bound for some time. However, the bias is positive to get a bullish breakout of the range and a fresh rise eventually.

Dow continues to strengthen on optimism surrounding the US-Iran peace talks and can rise further towards 51500-52000. DAX has moved above 25000 and needs to sustain above this level for a further rise towards 25500-26000. Nifty remains bullish and can see a gap-up opening near 23,900-24,000, with further upside towards 24250-24500 possible. Nikkei has surged sharply beyond expectations after crossing 64000 and can extend gains towards 66000-66500. Shanghai tested a low of 4067 and has bounced back from there, with a further rise towards 4150-4200 possible in the coming sessions.

Brent and WTI have fallen sharply amid positive progress in the US-Iran peace talks, and if the agreement is finalized, prices can decline further towards $95-$90 and $90-$85 respectively. Gold and Silver have bounced back contrary to expectations, but the broader bearish outlook towards $4400 and $70 remains intact. Copper has recovered in line with expectations and can rise further towards $6.60. Natural Gas is holding above the key $3 support, and while this continues, a rise towards $3.20-$3.25 can be seen in the coming sessions.

Read full morning briefing @ https://kshitij.com/morning-briefing

26 May 26. 0813 IST or 0243 GMT or 2243 EST

Good Morning

With the US markets closed yesterday, there have been little movements in global currencies as most of them remain ranged. Optimism around the peace deal between the US and Iran has triggered near term strength in major currencies against the US Dollar. The Dollar Index may dip towards 98.50/98 or lower in the near term with the Euro likely to move up while above 1.16. Aussie, Pound, Yuan and Rupee have strengthened too and could test 0.7250/0.73, 1.36/37 and 6.76/75 respectively while USDJPY may trade within 160-158 region. EURJPY can face rejection from 185 and dip towards 183/182 else needs a sustained rise above 185 to rally higher. USDINR tested 95.1075 as expected. While above 95 we may see a decent rise towards 95.50. A break below 95 is needed for 94.80/50 to come into the picture.

The US Treasury and the German Yields have declined sharply. Increased hopes that the US-Iran are coming close for a deal has dragged the Oil price lower. That in turn has pulled down the yields. The US and the German Yields can fall some more from here and test their support. We expect both of them to sustain above their support and rise back eventually. The 10Yr GoI is coming down within its range. If it breaks the range of the downside following the sharp fall in the global yields, then it can fall more. In that case, the expected rise will get delayed.

News that the US and Iran are coming closer to a deal has pushed the equities higher. The Dow was closed yesterday on account of a public holiday. It can rise to 51500-52000. DAX has risen above its intermediate resistance and can now test 26000. Nikkei and Shanghai have dipped in their early trades. Nikkei has support to limit the downside and looks bullish to see more rise. Shanghai on the other hand looks mixed. It has to breach its upcoming resistance to strengthen the bullish case. Else it can fall. Nifty can rise towards 24400-24500.

Crude prices trade lower on optimism around the US-Iran peace talks, and if the agreement is finalized, prices can decline further towards $95-$90 (Brent) and $90-$85 (WTI), respectively. Gold and Silver have bounced back contrary to expectations, but the broader bearish outlook towards $4400 and $70 remains intact. Copper has recovered in line with expectations and can rise further towards $6.60 while above $6.25. Natural Gas is holding well above the key $3 support, and could rise towards $3.20-$3.25 in the coming sessions.

Read full morning briefing @ https://kshitij.com/morning-briefing

27 May 26. 0748 IST or 0218 GMT or 2218 EST

Good Morning

Amidst the peace deal talks, Iran seems to be stuck on some key issues before arriving at a final agreement. This is keeping the Dollar Index strong above 99, preventing too much of optimism from seeping into the currency prices at the moment. In such a scenario, the Dollar Index can remain stable above 99 while Euro can trade within the 1.16-1.1670 region. EURINR, EURJPY and USDJPY look bullish for the near term towards 111.80-112, 187/188 and 160-161, respectively. USDCNY can trade within 6.78-6.80 region for now. A break below 6.78 could trigger a decline to 6.76/75. Aussie and Pound can trade within 0.71-0.72 and 1.34-1.35, respectively, while Rupee saw weakness towards 95.69 yesterday and may continue to weaken towards 96.00-96.35.

The US Treasury Yields are coming closer to their key support. There is limited room on the downside. We expect the yields to sustain above their support and rise back going forward. The German Yields have bounced but may not sustain. We expect them to fall more before resuming their broader upmove. The 10Yr GoI has dipped below a crucial level. Failure to rise back immediately can drag it further lower in the coming days.

Dow tested 51209 in line with expectations and while above 50000, the broader outlook remains bullish towards 51500-52000. DAX has corrected slightly, but while above 25000, it can still rise towards 26000. Nifty failed to hold above 24,000 and may decline further towards 23,800-23,600 while remaining below this resistance. Nikkei continues to remain strong above 64000 and can rise further towards 66000-66500. Shanghai needs a sustained break above 4160 to strengthen further towards 4250, else it risks falling back towards 4050 or lower.

Brent and WTI remain weak and can decline further towards $95-$90 and $90-$85 respectively in the near term. Gold and Silver continue to hold a bearish outlook towards $4400 and $70 unless they see sustained breaks above $4600 and $80 respectively. Copper remains positive while above $6.25 and can rise towards $6.60. Natural Gas is holding above the key $3 support and can extend gains towards $3.20-$3.25 in the coming sessions.

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29 May 26. 0810 IST or 0240 GMT or 2240 EST

Good Morning

Optimism around a 60-day ceasefire extension agreement between US and Iran is keeping Dollar Index slightly lower but still within the broad 98.90-99.55 range. Euro remains stuck within 1.1670-1.1580 while EURINR has scope for a rise to 112-112.50 before facing a rejection towards 110.5-110. EURJPY and USDJPY look bullish for the near term towards 186.50 and 160-161, respectively. USDCNY is headed towards 6.75. Aussie and Pound can trade within 0.71-0.72 and 1.3350-1.3550, respectively. USDINR will have to dip towards 95.50-95.25 else would turn bullish towards 96+.

The US Treasury Yields have come down to their support. An immediate bounce from here can take them higher and will avoid an extended fall. The US PCE, the Fed inflation gauge, surged to 3.77% (YoY) in April, up from 3.53% a month ago. Higher inflation will keep the doors open for rate hikes this year. That will be positive for the yields. So, any fall in the yields from current levels can be limited. The German Yields have turned down as expected. They can fall to test their support first and then resume their upmove. The 10Yr GoI has bounced. But resistance can cap the upside. It can fall more while it remains below the resistance.

Dow is stuck between 50300 and 50850. The bias is positive to get a bullish breakout of this range and a rise to 52000. DAX is likely to fall more in the near-term which can delay the rise to 26000 that we are expecting. Nikkei has risen back sharply. The bullish view is intact to see 66000-66500 on the upside. Shanghai is holding above its support. But a sustained rise above 4160 is needed to negate the danger of breaking below 4050. Nifty has to rise above 24100 to become bullish. A break below 23950 on the other hand can drag it lower.

Crude prices have declined sharply as the US and Iran agree for a 60-day ceasefire extension deal, awaiting Trump’s approval. Brent and WTI have scope to test $85-84 and $80 respectively before bouncing higher in the medium term. Gold and Silver have risen and could head towards $4600 and $80, respectively while Copper remains positive and can rise towards $6.60. Natural Gas has risen well breaking our expected $3.25 and can head towards $3.5 or higher soon.

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01 Jun 26. 0743 IST or 0213 GMT or 2213 EST

Good Morning

Most currencies may remain stable for the near term with a few of them likely to strengthen against the Dollar. The Dollar Index can trade between 98.80-99.50 while Euro is likely to remain stuck in the 1.16-1.17 region. EURINR is falling towards 110-109.90 while EURJPY and USDJPY look bullish for the near term towards 186.50 and 160, respectively before facing rejection later. USDCNY is headed towards 6.75. Aussie and Pound can trade within 0.71-0.7220 and 1.3350-1.35, respectively. USDINR will have to break below 95 to bring in 94.80/50 into the picture; else can bounce back from current levels towards 95.50.

The US Treasury Yields are bouncing back from their support. If it sustains, they can rise more and avoid the extended fall that we had mentioned earlier. The German Yields are coming down in line with our expectation. They have room to test their support after which a fresh rise is possible. The 10Yr GoI is hovering around 7%. A sustained rise from here is needed to avoid the fall that we are expecting to happen first.

Dow and DAX remain constructive, with Dow likely to rise towards 51500-52000 and DAX targeting 26000 while holding above 25000. Nifty has turned weak after failing to sustain above 24,000 and may decline further towards 23,300-23,200 while below 23,600. Nikkei continues to move higher in line with expectations and can extend gains towards 67500-68000. Shanghai remains under pressure and can decline further towards 4025-4000 in the near term.

Brent and WTI continue to weaken in line with expectations and can decline further towards $90 and $85 respectively, supported by optimism surrounding the US-Iran ceasefire extension and a potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Gold and Silver have rebounded after testing key lows, and if these supports hold, they can rise further towards $4600-$4700 and $80-$82 respectively. Copper remains positive while above $6.25 and can advance towards $6.60. Natural Gas has exceeded expectations on the upside and can extend gains further towards $3.50-$3.75 in the near term.

Read full morning briefing @ https://kshitij.com/morning-briefing

02 Jun 26. 0817 IST or 0247 GMT or 2247 EST

Good Morning

News that Iran is halting talks with the US and threatens to fully close the Strait of Hormuz is likely to weigh on the currency markets today. Dollar Index has bounced above 99, while the Euro seems to be stuck in the 1.1580-1.1680 region. EURINR may limit its dip to 110.35 and move up towards 111 today if Indian Rupee weakens against the Dollar. EURJPY could dip towards 185 while USDJPY looks bullish for the near term towards 160 or higher. USDCNY is headed towards 6.75. Aussie and Pound can dip to 0.71 and 1.34/3350, respectively. USDINR might bounce back towards 95.00-95.55 today.

The US Treasury Yields have come down again. Failure to sustain the bounce keeps alive the danger of seeing an extended fall breaking below their support. The German Yields have come off from their highs indicating lack of strength. That keeps the door open to test their support first before reversing higher again. The 10Yr GoI is inching up. It has to rise past the immediate resistance to go higher and negate the chances of falling back. Wait and watch.

Dow and Nikkei have turned lower after recent highs due to renewed Middle East tensions and could see further declines if the situation remains heated. DAX has corrected sharply but needs a sustained break below 25000 to turn bearish, otherwise a bounce towards 25500-26000 remains possible. Nifty continues to weaken in line with expectations and can fall further towards 23,300-23,200. Shanghai also remains under pressure and may decline towards 4025-4000 in the near term.

Brent and WTI have rebounded sharply on renewed geopolitical tensions and can rise towards $100 if the situation remains heated. Gold and Silver may remain within broad ranges of $4400-$4600 and $70-$80 respectively. Copper stays positive and needs a break above $6.60 to rise further towards $6.65-$6.70 or higher. Natural Gas has weakened and could test the key $3.00 support in the coming sessions.

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03 Jun 26. 0827 IST or 0257 GMT or 2257 EST

Good Morning

Most currencies seem to have gone into a sideways consolidation within specific ranges which may continue for the rest of the week. Dollar Index and Euro can trade within 99.50-98.50 and 1.1670-1.1580 respectively while EURINR could rise to 111.50 while above 110.35. EURJPY and USDJPY could trade within 185.50-185 and 159.50-160.50 respectively while USDCNY could see a slight rise to 6.77/78 before again falling back towards 6.75. Aussie and Pound can trade within 0.72-0.71 and 1.3450-1.35 while USDINR can rise towards 95.50 while above 95.25.

The US Treasury and the German Yields remain stable. The Treasury yields are hanging around their support. They have to bounce back immediately to avoid the extended fall. We will have to wait and see. The German Yields on the other hand can dip to test their support first and then rise back again. The 10Yr GoI is struggling to get a strong follow-through rise. A rise above the immediate resistance is needed to go higher and avoid more fall.

Dow and DAX remain positive after rebounding from recent lows and can rise further towards 51500-52000 and 25500-26000 respectively. Nifty has recovered above 23,300 contrary to expectations, keeping the near-term bias bullish towards 23,600-23,800. Nikkei has also turned stronger than expected and can advance towards 69000 in the coming sessions. Shanghai has bounced from support near 4032 and, while above 4050-4040, can extend its recovery towards 4100-4125.

Brent and WTI continue to strengthen in line with expectations and can rise further towards $100 if geopolitical tensions remain elevated. Gold and Silver are likely to remain range-bound within $4400-$4600 and $70-$80 respectively. Copper has turned bullish after breaking above $6.60 and can extend gains towards $6.75-$6.80 in the near term. Natural Gas remains weak and could test the key $3.00 support in the coming sessions.

Read full morning briefing @ https://kshitij.com/morning-briefing