The Swamp

Fact checked with Forbes.
Draining the swamp.

EUR/AUD is still up there. Its less shiny than in the post. Because the EUR/CAD is the new chance. It moved from number 26 to number 27. Its showing the stronger short in alignment. It has some smaller candles on Friday. But I think that just temp. On Monday, or anytime this week. If it does bounce to 1.5960-90s area. Look for weakness. Mondays sometimes provide a liquid sweep before resumption. If a short signal comes. It has the larger short alignment IMO. But it needs to have a signal sign of the bulls exhausted on that smaller time frame you like. Just an Idea. Use your own methods to confirm. Its in a "sell the bounce" stance to me.
Larger closes above 1.5961 is a warning sign on shorts, more so above 1.5972. See chart in case of a typo. That blue area is a R zone. Above it sustained is a warning. If the main trend is right. Just let it come back. Wait for your signal.
Its bearish to me. This to me in not a long candicate

It has potential After a rejection last month. Need a sign when/if it bounces. The structure has potential. The ranking has potential. Oil rising has potential to help.

Teach a man to fish, and he will eat for a lifetime. Give an idiot power, and (you did) he will destroy the world.
If you cant get food to the cities, people starve. Logistics to do this in the modern world rely on oil. The starving poor will run to the castles. No food, or enough money to even pay the higher cost. The solver of 8 wars (bullshit) will be the creator of dozens of civil wars. "where is his War Prize"?

As of May 3, 2026, following the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, countries with high dependency on Gulf oil and low strategic inventories are at the greatest risk of running out of oil.
Based on early March 2026 projections, here is the expected order of countries facing the most immediate shortages: [1]

1. First Tier: 1–2 Weeks (Immediate Critical Shortages)
   1. Vietnam: Highly vulnerable, with imports heavily reliant on the Strait of Hormuz and estimated to have only 5–7 days of inventory.
   2. Philippines: High dependency on Hormuz for energy, with only ~29 days of fuel supply.
   3. Bangladesh: High import dependency and limited storage, with widespread fuel shortages.
   4. Pakistan: High dependency on imported oil, with limited reserves.
   5. Myanmar: Significant fuel shortages reported, with rationing in place.

 

1. Second Tier: 1–3 Months (High Risk of Shortages)
   6. Singapore: High exposure with limited inventory cover for the large volume of crude that passes through the area.
   7. Indonesia: Relying on fuel imports, with limited reserves estimated for a short duration.
   8. Thailand: Facing acute supply issues due to reliant imports.
   9. India: High import dependency (approx. 60% via Hormuz), with about 50–60 days of reserves.
   10. Taiwan: High import reliance, with inventories estimated to last about 100 days.
2. Third Tier: High Resilience (Lower Immediate Risk)
   1. Japan: Though importing over 90% from the Middle East, high reserves (250+ days) allow for longer endurance.
   2. China: High reliance on the Strait of Hormuz but with significant domestic production and large strategic reserves.
   3. United States: Most secure due to high domestic oil production. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6]

   
   
   
   
   

Countries in Southeast Asia, including Vietnam, the Philippines, and Thailand, have already been forced to move to reduced work weeks and encourage working from home, according to. Other heavily affected regions include African countries like Madagascar and Ethiopia, which are facing severe shortages due to broken supply chains. [1, 2, 3]
Many of the countries produce clothing etc (dive in the what they produce) for Walmart. when will we see that shortage inflation?


Retailers like Walmart are currently grappling with "Warflation," a spike in costs driven by the Middle East conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. [1, 2, 3]
You will likely see the most significant shortage-driven inflation on shelves in late May and throughout June 2026. [1, 2]

Timeline for Shortage Inflation

1. Current (Early May 2026): Retailers are still largely selling inventory that was "front-loaded" or ordered before the conflict escalated.
2. The "Shadow" Inflation: While prices on shelves might seem stable, Walmart and other giants are already paying significantly higher wholesale costs. These will be passed to consumers as current stocks deplete.
3. May–June 2026 Peak: Shipping delays from Vietnam and Bangladesh have ballooned from 18 to roughly 40 days. This 3-week "lag" in the supply chain means the true shortages will hit U.S. shelves in full force by late spring. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6]

Goods Most Affected (Walmart Staples)
The production of everyday items is directly tied to the oil crisis in three ways:

1. Synthetic Clothing (Polyester/Nylon):
   1. The Oil Link: Polyester makes up 59% of global fiber production and is made from petroleum derivatives.
   2. Production Hit: Factories in Surat, India, and Bangladesh are facing a 30% spike in raw material costs for these fibers.

   
   
   
   
   

2. Plastics and Chemicals:
   1. Six key petrochemicals are the foundations for plastic packaging, detergents, and dyes.
   2. Suppliers for Walmart and Target report that energy costs have "drastically" raised the price of the dyes used in almost all apparel.

   
   
   
   
   

3. Logistics & Surcharges:
   1. Rerouting ships around the Cape of Good Hope adds $2,000–$4,000 in surcharges per container.
   2. Walmart has attempted to mitigate this by shifting some manufacturing to Mexico, but the sheer volume of Asian-made goods means consumers will still see a 10–15% increase in finished garment prices. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7]

   
   
   
   
   

Crude Oil (CLW00)
$101.94

-2.98% today

As of May 1, 10:58 PM CDT • Disclaimer

11:00 PM4:00 AM9:00 AM2:00 PM7:00 PM

100102104106

Prev close $105.07

Apr 30, 2026 - May 1, 2026




1D


5D


1M


6M


YTD


1Y


5Y


Max

Open105.14
Low99.30
Vol241919
High106.65
Prev close105.07
Open interest279302

The USD to me is not bullish. I know some are seeing the usd verse the euro bullish. I cant play without more conviction. It looks like a suckers game.
eu above 1726, later 1744 can rise.

If this happened alongside, it wouldn't be good.

If unable to climb above here at 98.04. And at the same time the EU is above 1.1744, than usd may be weak. It may play in this area for months. Its been doing that already in a few hundred pips range. The weak usd may be why oil is not running higher quickly. Oil demand from the usa may be stopping/helping the usd from dropping even harder. Oil is acting like a currency. It in this anomaly helping the usd. Normally oil has gone higher 1970s/2008. The usd got even weaker. Now since 2009 the usa has crossed the threshold of a net importer. From a surplus, to a net exporter. That's saving the usd.

just that quick a test. The month and week closed below 98.03. This can be a liquid sweep (Head fake)

oil is rising at the same time.
The eu dropping (if its not just a headfake) while oil rises. Is a double shot against the weaker currencies economy. That's why It may be a head fake. The usdx had the chance to overtake that level on the month and week, it didn't do it. I cant trust the eu drop.

In August 2016 the last above average El Nino. I got 20 inches of rain (2 day). Iran has had unusually high rainfall this year already. In 2016 Iran had well above average rain (the same year.) "

1. Widespread Increase: Many regions of Iran experienced a notable increase in precipitation in 2016.
2. Significant Regional Surpluses: Some areas experienced substantially higher than average rainfall, with certain regions receiving over 30% to over 50% above the long-term mean.
3. Heavy Early Year Rains: The beginning of 2016 (early water year) was exceptionally wet, leading to several periods where nationwide rainfall was significantly higher than the average, contributing to the overall, well-above-average annual figure.
4. Comparison to Average: Compared to the long-term average (which is usually around 250mm,), 2016 was one of the better-performing years for water accumulation."

The 2016 pattern would suck. On paper this cycle could be worse.
For food in these areas affected last time. This would be worse if the fuel to deliver the food is not there (crops rot in the field). It could also destroy what's planted with flooding or drought. A fertilizer shortage wouldn't help.

The eu looks weak to me.. Because it did close below 1743.9. At the same time the usdx closed weak to me (month week). That's not an alignment. One of those are wrong. I cant trade that.

I missed that.

can be called as one sort of balanced execution list

closed

Just a demo with a ea.

The most interesting in your list, there is a JPY pair. Such a haunted currency right now

Yeah, and today is Tuesday. It is not the best day for this trade. only a 35% day. Over all on all days is about 70%. On that particular ea on the ones in that group.

I'm supposed to sell gold here 4,584. with a 40$ stop.. tp about 40$. Beta run.