Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

Quoting mktjong

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Markam .. please don't post any more. Once you post .. all the rockets fall http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon10.gif

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Quoting banzai

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Markam for President

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Quoting kally

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Hi M2B,

My mom on 15m, 30 and H4 are pointing downwards. I'm still not sure which retrace it will go to. Is it the TF with the sharpest angle? I remember Aus mentioning something about if the 15m cross down then it will retrace to H4. Sorry if this has been answered, reading as many momentum posts as i can find but can't find this one.

Cheers

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Quoting my2buoys

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I start by looking at the lowest TF which has momentum turned down where there is a gap between price and the 5SMA. I have seen retraces on TF as small as the 5M but generally only those from 30M on up are noteworthy. Even Aus has said that the 15M retrace is very unreliable. In this case I am looking at the 30M chart. By 0430 GMT (0030 EST) we will know if the 30M has touched the 5SMA. If it has, and the new 30M momentum is turned up, then we know it was a 30M retrace. If price had crashed through the 30 5SMA early on in the candle and continued to move down, then we would look at the next higher up chart where there was negative momentum. In this case, it appears so far to be just a 30M retrace. If the next 30M candle momentum is negative it could fill any gap left between price and the 5SMA. Hope this helps.

M2B

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Quoting markam

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They better not, I'm long.

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Quoting kally

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Thankyou M2B, that helps a lot!

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Quoting my2buoys

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It's official, Armageddon is right around the corner. Markam is long!

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Quoting my2buoys

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OK, Kally, notice the new 30M momentum is still down, though not as negative. There is still a small gap between price and the 5SMA. I would now look for that small gap to fill as a retracement.

M2B

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Quoting pipped oFF

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wow, dow futures are up 80 points since 5 pm. That = good news for NY session and carries "me thinks."

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Quoting my2buoys

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OK, Kally, notice the new 30M momentum is still down, though not as negative. There is still a small gap between price and the 5SMA. I would now look for that small gap to fill as a retracement.

M2B

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Quoting markam

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I've been thinking about this plan that bush and the feds are dreaming up. Obviously they are carefully rolling it out try and maximize the short term impact on stock and currency markets. My guess is that it will work and we will see a big rally tomorrow. But lets think about what they can actually do.

As best I can tell, they are looking at the following items.

Utilize FHA to allow distressed homeowners to refinance mortgages that they otherwise could not get out of. This might help the people that have high interest ARMs that they can't get out of because of credit problems, and who are living in houses that they could pay for at a lower interest rates. Unfortunately, that is a very small fraction of the people in trouble. Most of the people in trouble owe substantially more than the current value of the house. They will not be able to get a loan to pay of their current loan. Then there is the second problem. Even if the government loans them more than the current value of their home, they couldn't pay even the principle back on the loan. They have only kept their houses up to now because prices have been increasing 10% a year and they have pulled cash out every year.

The second item is tax forgiveness for short sales, and forclosures. That is a great idea, for Joe Citizen. Right now, even if he declares bankruptcy and turns over the keys to his house to the bank, he gets hit with a big tax bill for whatever loss the bank has on his loan. With tax relief, it becomes a lot, lot easier for people to just walk away from their house. That is bad for home prices, bad for banks and bad for government revenues. Therefore, this provision absolutely will not happen.

The third item is talking about developing new loan programs. The goal is obviously to try and keep home prices up. What they will be looking at are things like 50 year loans, and loans where a portion of the principal is not paid back until the house is sold and where the bank takes a portion of the appreciation at the end of the loan. These ideas only work if home prices keep appreciating at rates well above the inflation rate. In other words, they can't work.

Sorry about the long rant, but it is obvious to me that they cannot fix this problem. It all goes back to my arguement that our economy only works as long as the supply of money increases exponentially. In the case of housing, our current system only works if home prices always increase faster than the rate of inflation. We have only had one year where home prices havent increased, and you can see that our home lending/banking system is already falling apart. One more year, and it will have basically collapsed.

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Quoting my2buoys

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OK, Kally, notice the new 30M momentum is still down, though not as negative. There is still a small gap between price and the 5SMA. I would now look for that small gap to fill as a retracement.

M2B

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Quoting moneymagnet

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kinda worries me when everybody is long!

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Quoting waf_1988

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wew...What a nice long...Will we see some 236-237 figures today?!

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Quoting Majd

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downward trend line resistance @ 236.00

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