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The Swamp

  • #127,581
  • Apr 30, 2026 4:51am Apr 30, 2026 4:51am
Some pecker measuring on the 15 min 100.73ish
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #127,582
  • Apr 30, 2026 4:54am Apr 30, 2026 4:54am
Quoting gatorinla
Some pecker measuring on the 15 min 100.73ish {image}
Oil volatility may bring back the 2007 2008 large day moves on currencies. ADR's may increase.
The break out points can change from R to S
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #127,583
  • Apr 30, 2026 5:29am Apr 30, 2026 5:29am
oil has risen near 16% this week. Today's retrace so far was a drop of 6%. If those moves were on a currency they would be huge. The currencies may take time to catch up.
That drop in the cad/jpy opened a possible long at support.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #127,584
  • Apr 30, 2026 5:55am Apr 30, 2026 5:55am
X amount of oil. Reserves are shrinking. That puts pressure on price. A smaller supply verses a larger demand= a greater price.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #127,585
  • Apr 30, 2026 8:04am Apr 30, 2026 8:04am
May 1: US Workers Revive the General Strike
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  • #127,586
  • Apr 30, 2026 8:51am Apr 30, 2026 8:51am
expelled from almost all the threads here .. making an effort LMAO !!
  • #127,587
  • Apr 30, 2026 11:03am Apr 30, 2026 11:03am
Oil support so for has held. U.S. equity markets also are holding on support. one is wrong. If oil is right equities, are probably wrong. See chart WTI.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #127,588
  • Apr 30, 2026 11:13am Apr 30, 2026 11:13am
Quoting gatorinla
Oil support so for has held. U.S. equity markets also are holding on support. one is wrong. If oil is right equities, are probably wrong. See chart WTI. {image}
month end moves are tricky! I have been staying sidelined since London
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #127,589
  • Apr 30, 2026 1:29pm Apr 30, 2026 1:29pm
USD engulfing on monthly -
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  • #127,590
  • Apr 30, 2026 2:13pm Apr 30, 2026 2:13pm
Quoting Eos-Luminus
USD engulfing on monthly - {image}
Your right, but this has me thinking the opposite. 97.87 you want to hold the R there. I think a sneaky bull is possible above 97.88 see line on the chart.
At the same time eu is below 1743.9. The eu may have a whipping coming. If it cant take back + 1.1743.9, and the usd is above 97.88.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #127,591
  • Apr 30, 2026 2:20pm Apr 30, 2026 2:20pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Your right, but this has me thinking the opposite. 97.87 you want to hold the R there. I think a sneaky bull is possible above 97.88 see line on the chart. At the same time eu is below 1743.9. The eu may have a whipping coming. If it cant take back + 1.1743.9, and the usd is above 97.88. {image}
I don't see it much here.. But if the usdx remains above.. the eu below 1743x can drop more. Its neutral on this box.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #127,592
  • Apr 30, 2026 2:30pm Apr 30, 2026 2:30pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Your right, but this has me thinking the opposite. 97.87 you want to hold the R there. I think a sneaky bull is possible above 97.88 see line on the chart. {image}
does looks exhausted through the majors, might have a shot at it,, but dont think i will, nothings really aligning A+ maybe monday entry or late today, im out of touch with DXY havnt used that for a while, see how it settles, lots of energy with all the rates and war still
  • #127,593
  • Apr 30, 2026 6:28pm Apr 30, 2026 6:28pm
Quoting Eos-Luminus
{quote} does looks exhausted through the majors, might have a shot at it,, but dont think i will, nothings really aligning A+ maybe monday entry or late today, im out of touch with DXY havnt used that for a while, see how it settles, lots of energy with all the rates and war still
Being on the usd bull side on that usdx was real. I caution that the eu can retest 1.1743x as R. It has closed the first day on the usd bull side/euro/usd bear side. It just hasn't settled enough, plus lately a tweet can sink it. It is near even on the strength box. I have to be cautious. Other pairs like the cad or aud versus the yen gave a retrace. That was my setup to long those.
eur/aud is one to watch if below 1.6292.. that may be a place to short if your system gives a signal
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #127,594
  • Apr 30, 2026 6:39pm Apr 30, 2026 6:39pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Being on the usd bull side on that usdx was real. I caution that the eu can retest 1.1743x as R. It has closed the first day on the usd bull side/euro/usd bear side. It just hasn't settled enough, plus lately a tweet can sink it. It is near even on the strength box. I have to be cautious. Other pairs like the cad or aud versus the yen gave a retrace. That was my setup to long those. eur/aud is one to watch if below 1.6292.. that may be a place to short if your system gives a signal
hello dear senior, what do you think about the next intervention in jpy? it would be very helpful to know your views
  • #127,595
  • Apr 30, 2026 6:47pm Apr 30, 2026 6:47pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Being on the usd bull side on that usdx was real. I caution that the eu can retest 1.1743x as R. It has closed the first day on the usd bull side/euro/usd bear side. It just hasn't settled enough, plus lately a tweet can sink it. It is near even on the strength box. I have to be cautious. Other pairs like the cad or aud versus the yen gave a retrace. That was my setup to long those. eur/aud is one to watch if below 1.6292.. that may be a place to short if your system gives a signal
one more thing, have you still running long positions against yen?
  • #127,596
  • Apr 30, 2026 6:56pm Apr 30, 2026 6:56pm
Quoting Shiham
{quote} hello dear senior, what do you think about the next intervention in jpy? it would be very helpful to know your views
I cant worry about it all. I trade when my system tells me to trade.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #127,597
  • Apr 30, 2026 6:57pm Apr 30, 2026 6:57pm
Quoting Shiham
{quote} one more thing, have you still running long positions against yen?
Not the old ones.. they were stopped out. I have new ones.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #127,598
  • Apr 30, 2026 7:17pm Apr 30, 2026 7:17pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Being on the usd bull side on that usdx was real. I caution that the eu can retest 1.1743x as R. It has closed the first day on the usd bull side/euro/usd bear side. It just hasn't settled enough, plus lately a tweet can sink it. It is near even on the strength box. I have to be cautious. Other pairs like the cad or aud versus the yen gave a retrace. That was my setup to long those. eur/aud is one to watch if below 1.6292.. that may be a place to short if your system gives a signal
1.6313.8 can be R also.
1665 was a past point. it may force a bounce to 1613ish there.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #127,599
  • May 1, 2026 12:08pm May 1, 2026 12:08pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} 1.6313.8 can be R also. 1.6265 was a past point. it may force a bounce to 1613ish there. {image}
it overshot 1.6313 about 20 pips. That don't change the big bias. On the bounce the bias was to look for exhaustion. Before continuing down. Its at 1.6265. I took profit. Because it may bounce. But I don't have a signal it will. On a bounce, IF it does. That same 1.6313 area look for exhaustion. But 1.6304 can also be a place to look.
That area in the lower 1.63xx area may be a good resistance next week. But nit is sustained above 1.6313.. Consider that a break, but it may still turn bearish again later. You just cant trust the break above. Look for exhaustion in any bounce.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #127,600
  • Edited 12:32pm May 1, 2026 12:22pm | Edited 12:32pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I don't see it much here.. But if the usdx remains above.. the eu below 1743x can drop more. Its neutral on this box. {image}
I was a little scared about shorting the eu because the box was neutral at the post time. It did run back above 1744. I was afraid it could. The usdx is not closing yet where the usd bulls want., The eu being below 1743x and the usdx above 97.87 is best to say the usd is bullish. It has not closed high enough. Today is a week close. That may be best. Its hard to trust the "Mad Tweeter". See picture, if you want a bullish usd. you want it above that yellow mark. The thing is London already closed Friday below it
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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