AI ORASignal - First test results (we are always in profit)

Also, apologies if I sometimes respond in great detail to what may seem like a simple question.

It comes from respect — both for the question itself and for the reality of the market.
These are serious topics that require careful and thoughtful consideration.

A couple of sentences simply wouldn’t capture the full picture.
I assume that this forum is exactly the kind of place where people appreciate going deeper into things.

And I believe most here understand that if it’s even possible to “outplay the market,” it certainly doesn’t come from simple solutions or quick ideas

Simple approaches — and even many complex and non-trivial ones — have already been tried, often decades ago.
So it’s reasonable to assume that anything truly capable of generating consistent results would likely have to look different — something new, not just a variation of what has already been tested and measured.

Your interest — and even your support, including optional donations through our website (OraSignal.com) — truly matters to us.
It motivates us to keep digging deeper and continue this research.

Another day — another set of strong results.

Toward the end of the day, our AI opened several more trades, again on the same pair (although it continuously scans multiple instruments).
Most likely, these were the directions it identified as the clearest at that moment.

And honestly — no questions to it.

Everything precise, everything clean.
Of course, such well-defined target ranges don’t happen all the time.
And it’s fairly clear why.
In general, the market is always a balance — a kind of resistance between opposing trends (groups of participants wanting to buy or sell).
When that resistance is relatively weak, price tends to move especially cleanly in the direction anticipated by the AI

During the night session (UTC time), we continue

An extremely interesting overnight and morning sequence from the AI across two pairs (GBPUSD and CHFJPY).

By the way, we don’t actively monitor trades during the night.
Yes, there are risks — but for us, statistics matter more.
We want to test the system across all conditions: any time, different instruments (right now the AI selects freely from a pool of 10–20 pairs).
The more diverse the conditions in which the system operates — and the more stable its results remain — the more it suggests an ability to extract structure rather than simply adapt to it.

We actually touched on this in yesterday’s blog post on our website.

Moving forward — no stopping

The latest series of trades from the AI — ranging from fairly classical setups to less typical ones.

GBPUSD behaved in a non-linear way this time.

But you know what — criticizing the AI for that would be, in our view, forgetting one of the more subtle ideas from physics: time is not fundamental.
We won’t go deeper into that here — otherwise we might end up giving away too many insights

Those who are familiar with the concept likely already understand — and keep it somewhere at the top of their thinking.

In short — everything is fine, and we’re satisfied with the outcome.
But without overexplaining — the statistics speak for themselves.

Definitely some very interesting zones.

Another successful day — and there were a few more trades as well.
GBPUSD is particularly impressive: the level identified by the AI continues to hold significance and has been revisited multiple times with a solid margin.

We’re pleased — 67 pips (670 points) for another strong day

And a bit more on the story of the only “complex” AI trade on GBPAUD
(more context above on how it started)

The structure after the level identified by the AI has now clearly been a flat range for 6 days.

So yes — something did go off (there was news related to Iran).

But we’re not in the red… which is quite remarkable.
We keep stacking positions in the same direction (longs) that the AI initially pointed to.

Current open trades are already being offset by steadily accumulating profit

Adding two more positions — like a small toast of champagne, and that’s enough.

We’ll close everything tomorrow regardless of the outcome — though realistically, it should end with an overall profit.
These are the kinds of zones we’re talking about.

Even a trade this “complex” — in the direction identified by the AI — just doesn’t give up

P.S. — not suggesting anyone take action, but GBPAUD is back at the lower boundary of the range

The GBPAUD story — finale.
Spoiler: a great one


A bit of context (we covered this earlier).

Let’s restate something important: physics doesn’t allow for 100% certainty.
Nothing is ever truly 100%. This isn’t just a nice phrase — it’s a scientific fact.

So even with a 90–95% win probability, the remaining percentage naturally consists of these “complex” cases — roughly 1–3 out of every 20 trades.
And those are exactly the trades that interest us the most.
We focus on them because they are the most informative.
Moreover, each “complex” trade behaves differently — they are not identical cases.
Essentially, these are outliers within an otherwise strong statistical flow.
Which leads to the key question:
can even these “complex” trades be fundamentally wrong? Completely misplaced?

Our working hypothesis: no — they are not just random failures.

Even when new external factors appear (strong news flow, unexpected events), they don’t fully invalidate the underlying structure.
At most, they introduce conflict — competing forces — but not a complete reversal of the core signal identified by the AI.

Now to the main point (as already mentioned above).
The pair moved into a week-long range.
By stacking positions, we managed to bring the overall result into profit, even with open trades.
We also mentioned yesterday — following the AI’s logic — that being at the lower boundary of the range, the pair would likely revisit the upper boundary.
That’s exactly what happened, and we closed all positions there.
More than that — price actually got firmly pinned near the upper boundary (and still seems to be holding there).
In short: even this rare (so far statistically unique) “complex” AI trade — combined with our additional positions in the same direction — did not lead to a loss.

An important statistical observation

I’ll try to keep it professional — another great week with ORA

And yes, there were new trades today — once again on GBPAUD, but this time on the short side
However, the AI’s entry points were taken near the upper boundary of the weekly flat, and it seems we already have a sense of how this might play out (we’ll be sure to share an update on Monday).
We could have closed with a small loss (10–15 pips), but at this point it’s more a matter of principle.

At the same time, looking at the overall statistics, it’s probably time to stop nitpicking.
There is no such thing as a perfect 100%, and yet pips keep coming in — quite generously, to put it mildly.

The main question is getting closer:
is the AI ready for a commercial launch or not?
After all, the system has been consistently generating pips week after week.

Another important point — something we understood from the start: people tend to resist what feels unfamiliar.
Charts, technical analysis, pre-trade validation — these have become so fundamental that many simply can’t imagine trading without them.
And yes, hopefully they do help — at least by adding some confidence

We agree — operating without that framework isn’t easy.
It breaks familiar ways of thinking.

How does it even work — you start AI bot, it trades on its own, and you’re just topping up and collecting the results, almost like in a game?
Of course, to many it sounds unrealistic.

To be honest, we’re not fully convinced ourselves yet — which is exactly why we continue testing



PS
By the way, a special thank you to those who have started supporting us with donations on our website.
When we launch commercial solutions, we will make sure to recognize the contribution of everyone who has shown genuine interest — even though all support is entirely voluntary.
Thank you again!

Hello traders,

We’re excited to share some interesting news.

We have started developing an indicator — essentially, a commercial version of our AI.
Why this indicator, as well as the trading statistics from ORA, may become not just useful, but in some sense indispensable.
The entire concept will be centered around delivering probabilistic data.

First, the AI will continue to identify and highlight the most relevant areas in the market (which it is already doing).
In addition, this indicator will provide extended statistical context for the current market conditions, which can either increase or decrease the overall probability before placing a trade.

Now to the most interesting part — and honestly, even at this preliminary stage, it is already quite remarkable.
In the chart, the height of each bar represents our proprietary metric in its aggregated form.
The higher the bar, the greater the probability that the trade will turn out to be successful.
Here’s the key point: the chart shows several historical trades, along with the calculated values of this additional metric.
Can you guess which trades performed better and which performed worse?

Yes — exactly as the chart suggests

We even highlighted those complex GBPAUD cases that we mentioned earlier.
Of course, there will be more data and more detail, but presented in a structured and clear way.

What you see here is an initial example and the first results of a comparative analysis — showing how the metric value relates to the actual outcome.

There is a clear correlation:
the higher the bar, the higher the probability of a favorable result.
In other words, in addition to already strong baseline probabilities, we are introducing additional “environmental indicators” that further reduce potential risk.
Perhaps the most exciting aspect is that the relationship is visibly clear and consistent.
For example, the lower bars in the middle correspond to previously identified complex trades from earlier periods.

We believe that working with this indicator alongside the AI will be a genuinely seamless experience.
Looking forward to the new trading week — no slowing down.


PS
Of course, we understand that for many, it may not be particularly exciting to see how a numerical value can reflect what is likely to happen — with some probability — on a chart.
That said, the indicator itself will be delivered in a modern and polished form, designed for multiple platforms, possibly even with different visual themes (though that part is more of a joke ).
In reality, implementation is the simplest part.
It only becomes complex when the goal is to create something genuinely useful — rather than just another chart layered on top of a chart, surrounded by a hundred buttons.

As promised, here is an update.

As expected, the situation on GBPAUD unfolded exactly as anticipated — the pair moved from the upper boundary into a bearish trend.
Within just 7–10 hours of trading, all positions were in profit.

In other words, everything remains stable.

We have also updated the statistics based only on AI-generated trades, excluding any manual positions.
We recommend taking a look (here: ORASignal.com) at how a fully automated system performs (without human involvement).
Further comments are hardly necessary.

We didn’t initially plan to comment on today’s очередные profitable trades, but we assume (and see) that many are trying to trade alongside ORA, so a few remarks may be useful.

First — everything is in profit, except for one trade taken on a downside spike.
It was a short position opened during that move, but it did not affect the overall picture.
All modes remain profitable, including fully manual trading (i.e., manual replication of AI signals).

A quick note for those who may not be aware (though this is always important to keep in mind):
GBPAUD and GBPJPY are essentially synonymous with volatility. Their daily, weekly, and monthly ranges are extremely high.

That said, we still do NOT exclude them (unlike many EAs that prefer “easier” instruments — for example, focusing on gold and simple buy strategies, which in the context of ongoing and upcoming global tensions seems rather trivial ).

No — our goal is to refine the system under the most demanding conditions, and ORA handles it well.
The statistics speak for themselves.

Of course, in quieter market conditions, the system naturally selects instruments that still show meaningful activity — and it’s not surprising that these pairs, given their extreme volatility, are among them.
At the same time, right now — especially for GBPAUD — the pair is highly sensitive to news related to Iran.
Escalation (risk increase) → GBPAUD rises
Expectations of negotiations → GBPAUD declines
Currently, oil is the key trigger:
Rising oil → AUD weakens → GBP/AUD moves higher
This is just a contextual note — external events can and do sharply reverse market direction.
---
As of now, based on current statistics, GBPAUD is once again near the lower boundary of a multi-day range, from which it recently attempted to break out.
There are solid reasons to assume that tomorrow (possibly starting overnight), we may see a continuation to the upside (bullish movement).
At the moment, this looks like a range expansion scenario, where news uncertainty around Iran causes fluctuations within relatively stable boundaries — and AI trades suggest that upward movement may follow.

It’s also worth noting that the previous activity near the upper boundary consisted exclusively of short positions — and it’s quite remarkable how precisely these levels are reflected in the data.

Exactly there, at the upper boundary — shorts only — and that’s what makes it particularly impressive.

We will verify this assumption (expecting a bullish move on GBPAUD).
---
One more note:
these pairs are definitely not for everyone, but their volatility — when the “market wind” is understood correctly — can be very effective for capturing profits, which is exactly what we did today

Yesterday we were again faced with a set of complex trades triggered by news events, alongside our manual positions.

The trades following that moment — as well as those during the night and morning — are performing very well (for example, AUDJPY). This clearly confirms that there is no system breakdown. The system does not collapse; it continues to function.

To understand a future outcome (as it appeared in the past), one would have had to experience that “future” in advance. And now, looking back, we can comment on what we observe.

The situation is almost identical to the previous isolated “complex” case on GBPAUD (by the way, all subsequent GBPAUD trades — and there have been many since then, including a recent series today — have all been profitable).

Once again, we see the same structure: on the left side, “live market patterns”, and on the right side, highly monotonous and subdued behavior driven by external factors (we are aware of the news behind this).

And yes — we are currently in a period where such news events can significantly influence market behavior.
This is the first and most important observation — not just ordinary news or even strong news, but events that literally impact a significant number of processes and market dynamics.

No system — and frankly no human either — can accurately predict reality when it is driven by, first, a strong news shock, and second, an unexpected and contradictory event.

To be honest, this is still a favorable outcome.
We are, of course, expecting a rebound. We are more than confident it will occur — upper boundary, historical and yearly highs, and forced positioning all suggest that the AI projection will be correct.

What is even more interesting is that we are currently developing a paid indicator.

In preliminary form, it already appears capable of identifying such situations in combination with AI logic and our proprietary metric.
In practice, with such a tool in place, these trades could have been confidently avoided.
We will not go into detail on how this works or why it works — but there are key hypotheses that help explain these types of situations. These were not applied before.

Wars with Iran do not happen frequently (and this is not irony or a joke, but a factual reality).


And of course, we do not turn off the system and we are not afraid of “complex” days
Moreover, these so-called “complex” trades currently look very much like something that has temporarily stepped aside — and a rebound is, in general, far more likely than a new “moonshot” move

As is well known — holding a position is not the same as losing a trade
In our case, it clearly means holding and gradually adding new positions in the same direction.

USDJPY — a “complex” trade — once again fully in profit

And what is interesting, as noted earlier:
in some cases, these “complex” trades contribute even more in total performance.
These “complex” trades were simultaneously selected by two AI regimes, and over the past two days they have generated +250 and +237 pips respectively (see weekly statistics).

Our hypotheses remain unchanged:
AI-identified trends (bearish or bullish), with a stable win rate (>90%, see statistics), remain statistically relevant even when new external circumstances emerge at the moment of execution.

Based on this hypothesis, we can derive further assumptions, for example:

1. There are strong reasons to expect a return to the identified level.
2. The more strongly price is pushed away from the detected structure, the faster it tends to revert — including sharp expansions (“pumps”), as seen today and in this case. This behavior has already been observed multiple times in less prolonged trade sequences.

The exact nature of these levels, and why such hypotheses hold (i.e., why mean reversion pressure occurs), is discussed only within the private community.

However, once again we confirm: everything unfolded within the framework of these hypotheses.

We also closed the initial trades slightly earlier (they were still in a small loss at that moment), although the overall position was already more than three times in profit. Importantly, even those trades would have eventually closed in profit.

The reason we sometimes exit earlier — and why, looking at the current price action, the quote has effectively stalled and entered a flat zone precisely at the levels identified by the AI — is also explained only in the private community (more details on our website).

However, visually it is clearly observable (we also publish the M1 screenshot — see the purple line) that the AI was not mistaken. The reasoning behind this is, again, not public.

One might assume that institutional participants, if they observe this, would recognize the potential usefulness of such a system from their perspective.

In short — Q.E.D., and we move forward

A bit more on USDJPY, continuing from the previous note.

At some time t0 (which is now in the past), the AI identified a specific level.
It explicitly indicated: below this level, a downward trend is likely.

With standard trades, this is already visible.
But here we focus on the “complex” trade.

It is important to emphasize — time t0 is already in the past (48 hours have passed).

A significant number of market events have occurred since then, and in theory one would expect the predictive relevance to decay over time.
However, this raises an interesting question: how far in time do these probabilities actually extend? (Although, in principle, time itself is not fundamental — a view supported by certain interpretations in physics.)

And now it becomes even more evident. USDJPY declines, and upon retesting that same level, it breaks through decisively to the downside.

What is interesting here is the realization that what the AI identifies is not a “toy signal.” It aggregates meaningful structures — underlying logic patterns.
What exactly these are remains, of course, outside the public discussion

What we can state is a simple fact: ignoring its logic even after 48 hours clearly appears unjustified.
It is not in the category of “some AI just made a guess…”

And as for us — with eyes closed (entrusting the future to it) — we simply continue placing trades in the same direction, and once again confirm that it was not in vain.

And to wrap up on USDJPY

Why is it useful even just to observe the entry levels identified by the AI?

See for yourself.

The AI was opening short positions across different regimes (levels marked with purple circles).
The trend itself was not rushing to turn bearish.
We, trusting the AI, continued placing manual trades — also shorts.
This went on for nearly 40 hours.

And then — it happened.

A sharp drop in price. But the most interesting part is something else.

What makes AI signals in Telegram truly valuable:
look at the exact level where the move turned into a full breakdown.
It is the same level previously identified by the AI as a key short entry zone.
Not just predicting the trend — but the exact turning point.

That’s extremely impressive.

This is why AI signals in Telegram are more than useful.

It’s not even about strict copying of trades.

Although, if you want to see how it trades — just check the account.

The point here is different:
the levels it identifies are exceptionally precise.

Why it works — that’s not for public discussion.

But the fact remains: everything is verifiable.

All data is backed by real, public accounts.



PS
In the morning, the AI opened long positions on USDJPY.
They were profitable, but with limited margin.
Later, a strong downside breakout occurred.
We added manual positions — again longs — and once more reached profit, now from more favorable levels.
This is another illustration of how we interpret our AI.
Forecast: the development of a bullish trend on USDJPY is beginning. Let’s see how it plays out.

Let’s summarize another successful week

Month after month, week after week — profit continues to grow.

By the way, we’ve noticed how some “participants” keep turning their accounts on and off (hiding them).
Ours are always public and active.
So everything we say is directly reflected in verifiable statistics.

It’s always important to remember:
there is such a thing as objective measurement.

In trading, that means statistics
Real. Verifiable.

No real profitable account (at least one) — everything else is just words.
A profitable account — no words needed.

To keep things interesting, let’s also make a forecast — one we will verify.
At the moment, the AI expects further upside on USDJPY (essentially on USD), meaning a move above the 157.210 level.
We’ve already managed to capture some solid profits.
Further upside is expected —
likely starting Monday, following reduced activity on May 1st.


And finally — a big thank you to everyone who supports us with donations.
As promised, regardless of the donation amount (crypto or fiat), once the commercial version of our indicator ORAINDy is launched,
everyone who has supported the project at least once will receive free months of access.

It will be our pleasure to do this for those who truly value transparent, data-driven, and mathematically grounded approaches.

This will be a clear and user-friendly product, integrated with MetaTrader 5 and TradingView.
In essence: AI insights + additional contextual indicators layered on top of already successful trades.
More probability — less risk

Development is moving fast, and we’ve already made some very interesting discoveries.
(as they say — everything is coming together).

So to everyone who shows interest — and especially those who support us — thank you!

The bullish trend on #USDJPY, even under the current volatility (which is extremely low), is moving exactly in the direction we indicated a few hours ago.
And quite nicely

Once again — a precise forecast from our AI.

It is literally being pulled upward.

We continue to watch the situation, and of course the weekend may introduce new inputs from time t0 (the forecast point).
However, since that forecast time earlier today, the pair has already shown a solid and stable upward move.

Remarkable

We have a habit — from time to time, we ask ChatGPT or Grok what they think about our results at each reporting stage.

We feed them data from a given model and observe their reaction, asking key questions.

In our blog yesterday, we explained how to distinguish strong signals from endless (and honestly — how much noise and outright junk there is!) repetitive marketing bait. That said, we remain calm about all of this.

First and foremost, we trade for ourselves.
Our publications are more about what is possible.

And it is genuinely satisfying to know that we are operating on a different level.

Of course, for most people, numbers probably “mean something” — but often just something vague.
We don’t mean to offend anyone — only to point out that numbers truly speak, if you are willing to listen.
What is truly remarkable here is not just that profit is growing, but that it does so with such consistency.

No real business can operate at a loss.

And if it is overall unprofitable — then such systems, strategies, and flashy promises belong in the bin.

We keep moving forward
And for some reason, it feels like this can no longer be stopped or broken


Grok’s questions and answers are below:

Question: Have you seen anything like this anywhere? Any similar systems from what you've encountered?

Answer: No. I am not aware of any publicly verified live trading system (MyFXBook, FXBlue, or broker statements with hundreds of trades) that sustainably delivers a 95.6% win rate over 700+ trades with a Profit Factor of ~3.85 on mini-pip scalping or other strategies.


Question: What is the probability that this happened by pure chance?

Answer: The probability of getting 756 or more wins out of 791 trades under pure randomness (p=0.5) is approximately 10^{-177} — a number beyond practical possibility. Conclusion: If the statistics are accurate, this is not random. The system has a real and very strong edge.

Question: What is your overall assessment of this system’s level?

Answer: It’s impressive. Really impressive. An autonomous AI that independently selects from 17 instruments, decides timing, direction, and position size, and delivers these results over 147 days — this is high-class performance. A Profit Factor of 3.85 and a very high percentage of quick wins indicate strong control and a significant edge.


Conclusion: You ask — are there any analogs with exactly these numbers in real, not fictional systems?

As of now — I haven’t seen any. If your results are exactly as presented (791 trades, 95.6% win rate, PF 3.85, 17 pairs, live) — this is an outstanding achievement.
It may even seem strange or suspicious, but not because such a thing cannot exist (if the statistics are real and verifiable), but because I haven’t encountered any analogs.



PS
An important key point.
In any business — and, of course, in any trading system or strategy — there is always an unknown factor that can nullify or turn any results negative (like a multiplier outside the brackets - R_real =R_model x k_unknown).
We emphasize: this applies to everything — any business, in any field.
Something can always occur that breaks previously observed models.
That is why time and consistency are the main allies.

In the end, they answer the key question:
is it a real business — or just luck?

Hello traders,

We continue working on our AI non-stop

Over the past weeks, the system’s evolution has practically stabilized.
The delays in several trades turned out not to be system errors, but rather the result of overall market instability.

Why did we come to this conclusion?

Because all the levels identified by the AI were eventually reached, and profits were realized.
We are talking about a few complex trades against the backdrop of dozens of stable and confident ones.

Alright.

Recently, the AI signaled an expectation of a bullish trend on #USDJPY.

Many hours have passed (including the weekend), and of course new factors have emerged since that forecast — primarily political and news-related.
However, previous tests have repeatedly shown that the levels identified by the AI have an underlying structural basis — and even over time, they remain relevant, just like the trend direction defined by the AI as dominant.

In short, we are waiting for a move above the 157.210 level on USDJPY.

This is more of an observational interest, as we currently have no open positions.
Open positions themselves are quite rare for us — almost an exceptional case — and therefore attract particular attention, especially compared to the usual steady and “quiet” sequence of successful trades.

However, what matters to us is the fact itself — once again confirmed and observable: whether the forecast proves correct or not.
We wait, and I believe it will become clear soon

Wishing everyone a successful trading week!

USDJPY → the same scenario once again

Recovery from Friday to above the previously forecasted level (break above 157.210 — confirmed! Again — confirmed! ).

Shortly before that, the AI again signaled a bullish expectation and placed multiple trades.
All trades were closed (+28 pips) — without a single error.

And then → a repeat of Friday’s pattern: a sharp downward pump.
Such moves typically have a speculative nature — unexpected, concealed, and largely outside the scope of conventional analysis (after all, speculators don’t announce their intentions in news or forums).

The AI — and this is a very important observation — stops placing trades.

The only regret is that this time we didn’t manage to enter at the bottom, assuming there would be a recovery above the AI entry level
And the recovery is indeed happening.
At this point, placing manual trades would no longer be optimal (the ideal entry has already passed).

However → we still expect a move above the AI entry level (see Telegram).

For some reason, we are more than confident — it will happen