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  • #41
  • Apr 7, 2026 12:33pm Apr 7, 2026 12:33pm
It appears there is currently frenzied demand for US light crude (WTI), with the price of its futures rising to $117 per barrel (see chart below), which is currently $6 more expensive than Brent. Although in recent years, it has always been Brent that has been more expensive.

WTI futures are delivery contracts, i.e. they guarantee the physical delivery of oil at the price shown on the screen. Brent futures, however, do not have these characteristics.

There is now a risk that Brent futures prices will cease to reflect the true state of the spot oil market due to the well-known issues with the Strait of Hormuz.
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  • #42
  • Apr 7, 2026 12:37pm Apr 7, 2026 12:37pm
Quoting ferrand
It appears there is currently frenzied demand for US light crude (WTI), with the price of its futures rising to $117 per barrel (see chart below), which is currently $6 more expensive than Brent. Although in recent years, it has always been Brent that has been more expensive. WTI futures are delivery contracts, i.e. they guarantee the physical delivery of oil at the price shown on the screen. Brent futures, however, do not have these characteristics. There is now a risk that Brent futures prices will cease to reflect the true state of the spot oil...
That's insane, i wonder how high it can go and what % of gulf output has been taken out by the situation in Iran
  • #43
  • Apr 7, 2026 12:55pm Apr 7, 2026 12:55pm
Quoting ferrand
The IRGC stated that at 03:30 am Tehran time, regional leaders will tell Trump: “You mad bastard, stop this bloody war!” The IRGC hints at a strong retaliatory strike against US allies in the region ———————— A post published on the Iranian government’s official website lists Iran’s “targets for retaliation”, including the Karish and Tanin gas fields, in the event of a US attack following Trump’s ultimatum Today, the IRGC warned that there are no longer any “red lines”, and that a massive strike would be launched against US allies in the region in...
I find it interesting the SP500 is more or less holding steady despite the increase in the price of oil, like I'm aware it's mainly just the idea that the conflict will be short lived + tech stocks at bargain prices, but other risk-on plays like AUDUSD and BTCUSD are grinding up as well.

I can't help but feel like the market sees something newspapers are missing even tho the VIX is way up today and we might well see the market crash hard by the end of the week.
  • #44
  • Apr 8, 2026 3:41pm Apr 8, 2026 3:41pm
UBS and the 5 largest Swiss banks have begun testing a regulated stablecoin backed by the Swiss franc.

It could very well turn out to be a serious competitor to the leading stablecoin USDT, which is pegged to the US dollar.

Moreover, given that the dollar is in a long-term downtrend against the Swiss franc, such a stablecoin could even become more popular than USDT. Investors will seek protection in it from the reckless growth of US government debt, which may at some point undermine the stability of the dollar.
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  • #45
  • Apr 12, 2026 2:33pm Apr 12, 2026 2:33pm
So, the negotiations between the US and Iran that took place over the weekend have effectively failed. The only outcome is a new "double blockade" of the Strait of Hormuz by both Iran and the United States.

If I understand correctly, it will work like this: any ships that Iran allows through the Strait will be blocked further by the American fleet. And any ships that the Americans agree to let through will be held back by the Iranians.

As a result, we may end up in a situation where not a single oil tanker can leave the region. And that already threatens oil prices reaching $200 per barrel. After all, over the past few weeks, tankers with Iranian oil have been sailing through the Strait to China, and some oil from Iraq has also been moving through. Now even that will stop.

In other words, the oil supply deficit on the market will widen further. On top of that, in recent weeks some countries have already started drawing down their strategic petroleum reserves, which are not infinite.

In short, things are clearly starting to smell like kerosene. If the US and Iran do not reach a compromise very soon, global markets could face a crash similar to what we saw in March 2020 during the worldwide lockdown at the start of the COVID pandemic.
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  • #46
  • Apr 14, 2026 6:56pm Apr 14, 2026 6:56pm
Ya its crazy, the IEA is already saying demand destruction. But my take is that the ceasefire + better Hormuz flows are kind of keeping prices down + Trump agreed to meet Iran again in Islamabad, which I guess the markets loving right now because it's like okay they'll agree to disagree a few more times, keeping that risk premium down for now at least. Idk $200/bbl would be insane tho, but I guess like if it was around 100 a barrel like 15 years go why shouldnt it hit like 200 today? Also as you said, reserves are not infinite, so I do wonder to what extent they're keeping the price down right now. CME and Polymarket area actually showing bets leaning toward only one rate hike later this year or some kind of higher for longer scenario.

I do kind of see things staying risk on for the near future, like earnings are great, AI trade is doing its thing, SpaceX, OpenAI will IPO this year, and people just being long in this market. I'm totally worried oil might spike again which is why im avoiding plays too correlated with interest rates but at the same time im like fuck American tech is looking good.
  • #47
  • Apr 15, 2026 10:57am Apr 15, 2026 10:57am
Live Updates: Trump says Iran war "close to over" as Pakistan pushes for new peace talks I find this so interesting, like ya they agreed to another round of talks, which calmed markets. I think Iran is not exactly in a position of strength right now, like yes in theory they can just launch endless waves of cheap drones at their enemies but it's like their missile capabilities are being degraded, their ability to generate cash flow through oil isn't what it was at the start of the war, and a sizeable chunk of the population wants the regime gone, so it seems to me like they're trying to avoid escalation right now. If the two sides can find a way to walk away with a win, we might see the end of this thing.

Like I'm not doubting Iran's ability and willingness to cause further damage, I'm just saying it's not sustainable for them and they know that. And ya they could raise the temperature and try and make oil prices hit like $200 per barrel but that's kind of a gamble for them, surviving that kind of escalation hinges on the idea that US-IL wouldn't retaliate in any meaningful way.
  • #48
  • Apr 19, 2026 6:39am Apr 19, 2026 6:39am
Ormuz is fully closed / partially closed / partially open / fully open.

Then, apparently, the parties went for a second round: fully closed / partially closed / partially open / fully open...

Pumping the S&P 500 to a new all-time high turned out to be much easier than actually reaching an agreement with Iran, and even more so than defeating it.

What is clear at the moment is that things will never be the same as before. The balance of power in the region has changed, and for now, clearly not in favor of the United States. What this will lead to, we will see later. The consequences could be the most varied and unexpected.
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  • #49
  • Apr 20, 2026 3:57am Apr 20, 2026 3:57am
A powerful divergence has formed between what is happening in the financial markets and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz.

Stock markets fell significantly in March amid the halt of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Now the strait remains closed, yet many stock indices have fully recovered their losses, and some have even hit new all-time highs.

The markets are behaving as if the situation around Hormuz has been completely resolved and everything is functioning exactly as it did before the start of military actions. But in reality, this is not the case at all.

Either we’re missing something, or the markets are clearly wrong. This will become clear in the near future. If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed over the coming weeks, the markets will no longer be able to ignore this fact. And then the speed of the decline in the indices will be simply astronomical, and even Trump’s TACO won’t help. People simply won’t believe in it anymore.
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  • #50
  • Apr 20, 2026 9:25am Apr 20, 2026 9:25am
Quoting ferrand
A powerful divergence has formed between what is happening in the financial markets and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz. Stock markets fell significantly in March amid the halt of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Now the strait remains closed, yet many stock indices have fully recovered their losses, and some have even hit new all-time highs. The markets are behaving as if the situation around Hormuz has been completely resolved and everything is functioning exactly as it did before the start of military actions. But in reality, this is not...
I feel like the AI trade is just carrying the whole thing right now and market breadth remains hella narrow, I like the narrative but I'm definitely eyeing a potential pullback for a long entry on the index. If you look at a chart like AVGO, it's just like way too vertical at the moment. I would enter long again after a healthy pullback.

I dont think Hormuz is totally resolved but I feel like US tech is a better place to be than FX right now given how vulnerable JPY is to oil-related inflation, like it's sort of unclear whether the BoJ would be forced to hike to reign it in or if the degree to which Japan is reliant on oil imports would mean that the economic damage would hit harder than the rate hike, which certainly seems to be the case with the NZD right now.

Also, there's this idea that since the US is an oil producer and has access to Canadian oil, they get cheaper physical barrels. Like sure you can sell a barrel to an Asian country for like 120, 150, but the 'netback' producers actually keep when u factor in the costs of sending that barrel to Asia makes it more cost-effective to just sell it to a North American consumer on the cheap.

I tend to think the Iran conflict is 'on its way out' with a few more dip buying opportunities disguised as escalation/potential scares. I mean, if Iran had more power they wouldn't be agreeing to talks, but that's just me, like I think it'll be more talks + de-escalation + a few sort of flashpoints like 'oh shit Iran just blew up another boat, they're for real' that will mainly serve as negotiating leverage.
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  • #51
  • Apr 20, 2026 3:13pm Apr 20, 2026 3:13pm
Meanwhile, while the crypto market is quiet, Strategy stocks (which are heavily dependent on Bitcoin's price) have fully recovered from the decline at the end of January – beginning of February.

However, the major coins — Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ripple — are still quite far from their January levels. Back then, BTC was around $90k compared to the current $76k, ETH was around $3k vs $2.3k now, and XRP was around $1.9 vs the current $1.43.

There are still decent chances that the rebound in the crypto market will continue and we'll see a return to January levels. At that point, it will be decided whether the bear market will resume or whether the bottom has already been reached in this cycle. That's the current outlook for crypto.
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  • #52
  • Apr 21, 2026 7:35am Apr 21, 2026 7:35am
wow is it just me or is the gap between BTCUSD and BTCEUR wider than it usual despite EURUSD being in that 1.15-1.118 range? Definitely looks like a bottom to me, but idk, I've been trying to avoid BTC
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  • #53
  • Apr 24, 2026 3:06am Apr 24, 2026 3:06am
Trump:
“I have all the time in the world, and Iran doesn’t. The clock is ticking!”

If Trump is saying this, it’s most likely he’s the one who is actually pressed for time. As long as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, the global oil shortage continues to grow. Right now, this deficit is largely being covered by the strategic petroleum reserves of various countries. But those aren’t infinite. And new oil supplies aren’t reaching the market in sufficient volumes because the strait is closed.

Because of this, pressure on Trump will increase—not only from oil-importing countries that can’t buy “black gold,” but also from oil-exporting countries that can’t sell it. In effect, almost all major countries in the world—aside from a few exceptions (the U.S., Russia, and some others)—are being affected. And all of these countries will direct their complaints specifically at Trump. He started this mess, so he has to deal with it.

So the clock is really ticking for him. Global stock markets could soon face a major disappointment if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.
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  • #54
  • Apr 28, 2026 9:44am Apr 28, 2026 9:44am
Today marks exactly two months since the start of the US military operation against Iran, codenamed "Epic Fury."

The interim results are as follows: the Strait of Hormuz was open before the operation began, and now it is closed. Oil prices are holding above $100 per barrel, while the year started at $60.

You’ll agree that it’s hard to call this a victory for the United States. Although American oil companies are, of course, profiting from the high oil prices. But the price for this gain is also being paid by the entire US population at the gas pumps.

In fact, nearly every country in the world is bearing huge costs due to the launch of "Epic Fury."

For now, military operations are on pause. But if they resume with renewed force and Iran responds by destroying the oil infrastructure of neighboring countries, the consequences for the global economy would be simply catastrophic.

In that case, "Epic Fury" would first trigger an epic inflationary shock, and then an epic recession in the world economy. And as a result, a lot of other epic things could happen in the world...
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  • #55
  • Apr 28, 2026 1:49pm Apr 28, 2026 1:49pm
Imagine what would have happened to oil prices if the UAE had announced its exit from OPEC+ not today, but at the beginning of the year, when a barrel was going for $60.

For now, while the Strait of Hormuz is closed, this decision by the UAE isn’t that significant. After all, oil not only has to be produced, but also delivered—and that’s where the problems lie. And if Operation “Epic Rage” resumes, Iran will most likely strike the UAE’s oil production facilities. In that case, any talk of increasing output would be off the table.

If, however, the situation with Hormuz is resolved and everything returns to normal, then the UAE’s exit from OPEC+ would, of course, become a very serious factor for the oil market. It’s still unclear how Saudi Arabia will respond, for whom high oil prices are far more important than they are for the UAE.
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  • #56
  • Apr 29, 2026 10:21am Apr 29, 2026 10:21am
Quoting ferrand
Imagine what would have happened to oil prices if the UAE had announced its exit from OPEC+ not today, but at the beginning of the year, when a barrel was going for $60. For now, while the Strait of Hormuz is closed, this decision by the UAE isn’t that significant. After all, oil not only has to be produced, but also delivered—and that’s where the problems lie. And if Operation “Epic Rage” resumes, Iran will most likely strike the UAE’s oil production facilities. In that case, any talk of increasing output would be off the table. If, however, the...
yeah it would be interesting to look at the number of days crude has managed to stay over 100 since the start of the war, it seems like the fact that it's totally unsustainable forces escalation which then forces some kind of future negotiation.

Also: seems like the US is favoring a prolonged blockade over more strikes on iran, with the treasury estimating a loss of 170 million/day for the islamic republic. It'll be interesting to see 1) if Iran can sustain that for more than a week, which would have a very negative impact on markets 2) if Israel will continue to conduct strikes inside Iran, turning up the temperature a little bit.

Iran’s oil storage hits absolute capacity around early to mid‑May, per Kpler. Once that happens, they have to shut fields, and because of reservoir geology, i.e. water rushes in and permanently traps the oil, some of that crude doesn't come back, translating to a more or less permanent supply loss.

I'm pretty sure the US had a naval blockade going during the last round of talks, so my thinking is that if they can raise the temperature, get Iran to the negotiating table again, they can lower the price of Crude, prop up markets, ease the 'midterm political pressure' while simultaneously keeping that heat on Iran given that if their oil storage hits capacity their ability to generate cash via oil takes a HUGE hit.

Will be interesting to see if they can compel Iran to agree to another round of talks before the oil price completely wipes out the recent market gains.
  • #57
  • Edited 8:56am May 1, 2026 8:45am | Edited 8:56am
The reason the market keeps ripping despite the oil crisis :

Like it's pretty much a dull market at this point and we still have some of those AI IPO's to look forward to. Might see some US-Iran action this weekend, I think the US is planning some 'final blows' as per the news, let's see how that plays out
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  • #58
  • May 7, 2026 3:19am May 7, 2026 3:19am
An unusual situation could arise if a recession begins in the Eurozone, while the ECB is simultaneously forced to raise rates due to increased inflation caused by the recent surge in oil prices. The ECB leadership is already actively preparing the markets for an expected tightening of monetary policy.

For the past few decades, central banks in Western countries have responded to economic downturns by cutting rates to zero — and sometimes below — and firing up the "printing press." These actions helped smooth out the negative consequences for the economy and aided recovery from recessions. Now, circumstances are shaping up such that the European Central Bank will not have those options; on the contrary, it will be forced to raise rates.

And what if oil prices continue to rise due to a persistent market deficit? In that case, yields on European government bonds will also keep climbing. This could sharply raise the question of how to refinance public debt at significantly higher interest rates. This already threatens a new debt crisis in the Eurozone. And it would unfold against a backdrop of elevated inflation. This would make it difficult for the ECB to launch a new round of QE and start buying government bonds onto its balance sheet. Without that, we could even see sovereign defaults in the Eurozone.

It looks like interesting times lie ahead for the markets. The storm could get very intense...
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  • #59
  • May 13, 2026 12:41pm May 13, 2026 12:41pm
Surely, you've heard this phrase more than once: "The better things are on the American stock market, the more confident the U.S. consumer feels." And since consumption accounts for about 70% of U.S. GDP, it follows that the economy as a whole is doing well.

What do we have now? After the March correction, the S&P 500 surged 15%, hit new all-time highs, and is currently sitting at 7,400 points. At the very same time, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is showing absolute record lows for the entire observation period, remaining below 50 points for the second consecutive month.

Meanwhile, Trump keeps boasting about the new S&P 500 records, saying he’ll make everyone rich. Yet in reality, consumer sentiment continues to deteriorate for some reason.

It turns out that stock market growth has stopped correlating with the improving well-being of most Americans.

Take a hypothetical example: Apple earns another $10 billion, spends it on buybacks, and as a result, its market cap exceeds $4 trillion. What does the average American get out of this? Nothing. Or NVIDIA reaches a $5 trillion market cap thanks to the AI boom. What percentage of U.S. citizens actually made money from it? A tiny fraction, I’d say. Did wages for ordinary consumers rise because of the AI boom? No. But has some portion of the population already lost — or will lose — their jobs? I think that number will only grow.

This is apparently why consumer sentiment according to the University of Michigan remains so gloomy.

The real beneficiaries of stock market growth are a very narrow segment of society with high savings. Their capital is genuinely increasing. For the majority of the population, the rising market is neither here nor there.
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  • #60
  • May 15, 2026 3:29am May 15, 2026 3:29am
A rough start to the day on the precious metals market immediately following the conclusion of Trump’s visit to China.
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