Another way to trade PA profitably | Page 4 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Do you need to see the past to trade profitably? 20 replies

How To Trade Renko Profitably 13 replies

Is it possible to profitably trade with MT4 brokers? 35 replies

Once you can trade profitably are you rich? 43 replies

Mark Cook on How to Lose Money Profitably 0 replies

Attachments: Another way to trade PA profitably
Exit Attachments

Another way to trade PA profitably

  • #61
  • Aug 28, 2007 12:35pm Aug 28, 2007 12:35pm
Quoting CateFul
does anyone know how to change the thread title? You guys seem to be more into this COT stuff than PA so I'm thinking to add COT into the title.
Just go to the first post, click edit, choose advanced and you can edit the title.

Going from the COT on the USDX and EUR FX it appears there are a lot of people believing in a stronger dollar around


Dunno, seems the COT is also wrong a lot of times and only COT Pin bars (fast move to extremes of both, then almost as fast move back happens next) seem to work okay, and the commercials also seem to love getting out of positions pretty darn quick => I see diminished positions rather rapidly.
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #62
  • Aug 28, 2007 1:00pm Aug 28, 2007 1:00pm
Quoting SeekingLight
Just go to the first post, click edit, choose advanced and you can edit the title.

Going from the COT on the USDX and EUR FX it appears there are a lot of people believing in a stronger dollar around


Dunno, seems the COT is also wrong a lot of times and only COT Pin bars (fast move to extremes of both, then almost as fast move back happens next) seem to work okay, and the commercials also seem to love getting out of positions pretty darn quick => I see diminished positions rather rapidly.
Wow thank you so much. Your right about COT and that's why I use PA to make entries and exits.
Take a report.
  • #63
  • Aug 28, 2007 1:46pm Aug 28, 2007 1:46pm
Quoting SeekingLight

Dunno, seems the COT is also wrong a lot of times and only COT Pin bars (fast move to extremes of both, then almost as fast move back happens next) seem to work okay, and the commercials also seem to love getting out of positions pretty darn quick => I see diminished positions rather rapidly.
Yes, this is very true, Seeking. I noticed commercials' flipping sides quite too often and darn quick, so what we are left with is a 4-day old cftc snapshot of the commercials vs non-commercials interests, positions, etc. There are multiple variations of the so-called commercials, too. Those who just hedge their mainstream products such as loans against the currency fluctuations (I posted an example earlier) and to me these are the true, non-speculating commercials, those who get in and out following the market sentiment because they just see short-term opporunity (hedge-funds), those who bet on deep-in-the-money options because they have underlying contracts - new purchase orders, banks are aware of their customer's business cycles, etc., e.g. Bank of Mitsubishi knows that their parent will buy a certain amount of product X from overseas at a regular time, for USD. BOM will undertake a certain risk (within their risk guidelines) and purchase options or futures now - this is speculation but they are still protected by customer's contract value. If they gain within 2-3 days of option purchase they will not think twice - run while you can.

I take side with Cateful in this respect and agree that PA combined with COT report can be powerful but I have not come across a tool (oh, this magic wand) that would tell us when the commercials in their entiety as a group are right. It is the market that is always right - sorry for being redundant.
I am a very humble trader Up 380 pips - two trades.
  • #64
  • Edited 3:06pm Aug 28, 2007 2:59pm | Edited 3:06pm
Either euro is doing a trick by touching 1.3600 and going back up now or I keep my short for further 50 pips down. Anyway, 30 pips are protected. Very nice PA!

BTW, a very cute daily pinbar on usd/chf forming. I am engaged with euro already so I will take this as a supplementary trade (on the long side) only, i.e. half the size of euro trade lot.
I am a very humble trader Up 380 pips - two trades.
  • #65
  • Edited 7:23pm Aug 28, 2007 6:52pm | Edited 7:23pm
No rough feelings folks but the commercials seem to be abandoning the "euro long" ship. Feds are not keen to cut the rate - this is what happens when 90% of traders are betting on the contrary and trying to instill their opinion into the market on behalf of Feds.

ok will take profit here at 1.3566 as I do not want to chase it. I had enough.

Good night, everyone.
I am a very humble trader Up 380 pips - two trades.
  • #66
  • Aug 28, 2007 11:14pm Aug 28, 2007 11:14pm
Quoting Urchin
No rough feelings folks but the commercials seem to be abandoning the "euro long" ship. Feds are not keen to cut the rate - this is what happens when 90% of traders are betting on the contrary and trying to instill their opinion into the market on behalf of Feds.

ok will take profit here at 1.3566 as I do not want to chase it. I had enough.

Good night, everyone.
No offense, but as always, I'm very confident with my trades. wait till tomorrow. The last week's bulling bar will hold and when the COT comes out this Friday I bet the commercials are still long euro as of Tuesday, now. The last bear move was because it meets a major resistance. Let it play itself out. If you are in the trade from last Monday you're still in profit, move sl to break even and wait patiently. It's only been a week and 2 days. Not even as long as my average trades. It's going up.
We're seeing some EUR bull move already.
Take a report.
  • #67
  • Aug 29, 2007 7:16am Aug 29, 2007 7:16am
no offense taken! I am still in a jolly mood over the last trades (260 pips). This is just a forex market, a place for everyone, bulls, bears, up and down...Hard not do anything and sit tight.
Attached Image
I am a very humble trader Up 380 pips - two trades.
  • #68
  • Aug 29, 2007 8:44am Aug 29, 2007 8:44am
here we go guys. commercials back to power. almost 400 pips drawdown for me in two days. but like I said, 400 out of 3000, i can live with that. Now the ret is over EUR AUD will strengthen, JPY will lose its hard earned value from two weeks before.
Take a report.
  • #69
  • Aug 29, 2007 10:56am Aug 29, 2007 10:56am
very well, indeed! I was not here when the reversal happened (sleep is very important in my life ). Cateful, did you come up with a new thread name? I am adding a star to it.

Here is my current state of mind:
Attached Image
I am a very humble trader Up 380 pips - two trades.
  • #70
  • Aug 29, 2007 1:24pm Aug 29, 2007 1:24pm
Quoting Urchin
very well, indeed! I was not here when the reversal happened (sleep is very important in my life ). Cateful, did you come up with a new thread name? I am adding a star to it.

Here is my current state of mind:
Urchin I really enjoy your daily pictures ^_^
I tried to change the name by going to the advance tab but the change didn't go through. It really doesn't bother me a whole lot. I'm not a big fan of "1000 pips a month" title.
This upmove is now at a ret again. AUD/JPY will make stop at 94.64(already did, which might give us a nice bullish daily pin bar), 95.71, and 97.10 area. +-30 pips.
Take a report.
  • #71
  • Aug 29, 2007 2:40pm Aug 29, 2007 2:40pm
Quoting CateFul
Urchin I really enjoy your daily pictures ^_^
I tried to change the name by going to the advance tab but the change didn't go through. It really doesn't bother me a whole lot. I'm not a big fan of "1000 pips a month" title.
I like "1000 pips a month" as it will sure generate a mass of views, or, you better you can call it "100,000 views per month". But we need to be humble and underwater. Somehow, I feel word "another" does not sound original and fresh. Like here "Ok, here is another upstart with a "new" system, been there already". Really your call, Cateful, does not bother me either. Have a great day!
I am a very humble trader Up 380 pips - two trades.
  • #72
  • Aug 29, 2007 3:56pm Aug 29, 2007 3:56pm
Quoting CateFul
Urchin I really enjoy your daily pictures ^_^
I tried to change the name by going to the advance tab but the change didn't go through. It really doesn't bother me a whole lot. I'm not a big fan of "1000 pips a month" title.
This upmove is now at a ret again. AUD/JPY will make stop at 94.64(already did, which might give us a nice bullish daily pin bar), 95.71, and 97.10 area. +-30 pips.
OK great trade, its now at 95.71 area i posted earlier on and will be around here for a while before it takes off to test 97.10 area, once these two levels are broken it's gonna be a shit show straight up.
Take a report.
  • #73
  • Aug 30, 2007 7:25am Aug 30, 2007 7:25am
hold on so far. Let me gather some euro pips in the meantime . Up 60 pips from trade 4 (30 protected) and up 50 pips from swissie long (supplementary trade, 10 pips protected). Overall I am up 300 pips, 100% win rate. hmm, not bad. Let see what the GDP tells us in 5 min.. Good luck.
I am a very humble trader Up 380 pips - two trades.
  • #74
  • Aug 30, 2007 7:48am Aug 30, 2007 7:48am
Quoting Urchin
hold on so far. Let me gather some euro pips in the meantime . Up 60 pips from trade 4 (30 protected) and up 50 pips from swissie long (supplementary trade, 10 pips protected). Overall I am up 300 pips, 100% win rate. hmm, not bad. Let see what the GDP tells us in 5 min.. Good luck.

What exactly do you use for your entries? .618 + s/r + hope?

Your entries seem almost as to the pip as Traex's ;p (Elliot Waver)

Just curious..never hurts to learn how people with 100% initial w/l rate go ;p
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #75
  • Aug 30, 2007 10:35am Aug 30, 2007 10:35am
Quoting SeekingLight
What exactly do you use for your entries? .618 + s/r + hope?

Your entries seem almost as to the pip as Traex's ;p (Elliot Waver)

Just curious..never hurts to learn how people with 100% initial w/l rate go ;p
Now, as I am stopped out from my euro short position with 30 pips up, let me get back to you. I do not copy anyone and glad my trades match someone else's - I will definitely check up Traex's (but only after I enter mine). Btw, me was 75 pips up earlier this morning, saw price pushed up from the trendline (yeah, there is a nice 1hr pinbar now..) but I just wanted to trade my plan. Market giveth market taketh. So be it. I am still in a long swissie trade, though, to rub the salt on the commercials' wounds, he-he .

When we enter in the market we all hope for the win, don't we? We are humans and want our share (breadcrumbs, i.e.). On the technical details here are:

My rule number 1> I explained earlier in this thread what my bias is for this week - negative for euro and positive for yen. My own point of view is that yes the commercials advanced with euro last week, cftc report showed aggressive additions of the comml's on the long side but to me (again, my personal opinion) it is all already priced in the market. likewise an expectation of the rate reduction is. This leads me to:

rule number 2: I wait for the "technical weakness" of the pair - S/R on the 4HR, multiple doji's, a star, well we all know the theory. Nothing fancy. All I want is to sell the rally. I sold euro 3 times this week! as you can see. If I would be a day-trader I am sure I would have pocketed more but there is no reason for me to. Because it leads me to:

rule number 3: hold the trade until the target is reached, stopped out or the next cftc report at which time I can compare where my trade stands with respect to the recent commercials change if at all. And:

rule number 4: protect your profits.

Overall, for me euro has reached the top this July and I am taking opportunities to sell it. Just another view of the market among many. Thanks for writing to me, Seeking, and hope this view is welcome on Cateful's thread.

And here is another funny picture:
Attached Image
I am a very humble trader Up 380 pips - two trades.
  • #76
  • Aug 30, 2007 11:16am Aug 30, 2007 11:16am
continuing the previous post...

So, when looking at euro PA right now, I am asking myself:

- is there a 1HR pinbar bouncing from 1.3660? Yes
- Does euro fail to reach new highs consecutively for 3 days? Yes

Does it mean I go short? That'll be too easy, too simple to be true. Commercials will eat me up. So, I stay out and wait either for the break of 1.3679 or continued weakness.
I am a very humble trader Up 380 pips - two trades.
  • #77
  • Aug 30, 2007 11:55am Aug 30, 2007 11:55am
Quoting Urchin
continuing the previous post...


You mean you're LONG loonie if your target is above your entry? 1.0560->1.07?
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #78
  • Aug 30, 2007 12:38pm Aug 30, 2007 12:38pm
Quoting SeekingLight
You mean you're LONG loonie if your target is above your entry? 1.0560->1.07?
I sold loonie, bought greenback, it's just the other way round. May sound confusing..Yes, targeting to the upside of this pair.
I am a very humble trader Up 380 pips - two trades.
  • #79
  • Aug 30, 2007 2:42pm Aug 30, 2007 2:42pm
Quoting Urchin
.. continued weakness.
Mark my words. Market tells us what is happening. Dollar gaining stength, further frustration with euro (delayed or no rate hike). Change of trend to me.
I am a very humble trader Up 380 pips - two trades.
  • #80
  • Edited 3:27pm Aug 30, 2007 3:15pm | Edited 3:27pm
Quoting SeekingLight
....Your entries seem almost as to the pip as Traex's ;p (Elliot Waver)
Seeking, just checked Traex's thread, excellent ideas there, lots of good stuff. I could not find any matches with my entries, on the contray I saw discussion to short usd/cad - I am going the opposite direction today (plus 20 pips as of now).

Other open trades:

- long usd/chf (up 37 pips, 10 pips protected)
- short eur/usd (up 12 pips, 1 pip protected).

So, I guess this is off the cards... Good luck.
I am a very humble trader Up 380 pips - two trades.
0 traders viewing now