The Swamp

testing range support again on oil.. non spot

WII spot is likely attracted to 91.34.. After that ?

I got the usd growing some balls.. the eu looking bearish below 1744.. It still may get back to 1718-44 ish.. It may be a place to consider short. Its sitting at 1692 atm
If its to bounce to 1718.. int the next 2.5 hs is a good time to do it before the attraction dies.

That timed attraction is over. But it may still hit 1735ish.. Some R 1744 area. Its Friday 1807 was last weeks fair value. Its bearish so it could be limited to 1735/44 ish. If i can get an entry with 1744 holding, I will shoot for 1520.. My EA will miss this one.

That timed attraction is over. But it may still hit 1735ish.. Some R 1744 area. Its Friday 1807 was last weeks fair value. Its bearish so it could be limited to 1735/44 ish. If i can get an entry with 1744 holding, I will shoot for 1520.. My EA will miss this one.

Spot oil closed a day above 94.14. Not a b/o yet. But it broke back in the range. 94.14 spot wti can support. A breakout likely above 100.73 resistance with a week close. That range can be 94.14 to 100.74.. The wicks don't count. As long as it mostly contained with closes. About the same with futures.. See levels on the earlier charts. WTI and Brent climbed into the lower range zone also. Its set to try for those upper ranges if it remains contained at the lower ranges. Iran news hasn't changed. The tweet lies cant be a driver forever.

Our moron leader has destroyed 250 years of credibility. Any good will toward the usa is in jeopardy. It will get worse with food shortages. Any big city requires transportation to distribute the food. Without fuel the cost rise, the availability shrinks. Millions to billions can starve. This is just people not having fuel for work and such. The food part is coming soon. Some areas will be hit sooner than others. Even if the straight was open today. With infostructure 100%. Its still 3 weeks or longer before a ship can reach most parts. This is a huge clusterfuck. Caused by 1 idiot, and followers.
As of April 2026, severe fuel shortages and related unrest—including violent protests, panic buying, and station attacks—are concentrated in Asia and parts of Europe, driven by a global energy crisis following the conflict with Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
The Washington Post +3
Key Countries Facing Unrest and Shortages

1. Bangladesh: Experiencing severe shortages leading to violent attacks on hundreds of fuel stations.
2. Pakistan: Facing high fuel prices, rationing, and violence against station workers.
3. Philippines: Declared a national emergency, implementing rationing, and offering subsidies, as reported on BBC News.
4. Ireland: Experiencing significant protests and blockades of fuel terminals, with the army on standby, according to CNBC and The Guardian.
5. Myanmar: Restricted private vehicle use to alternate days due to supply issues. The Detroit News +7

Other Impacted Regions

1. Sri Lanka: Implementing fuel rationing, including limited weekly quotas for motorists.
2. India: Experiencing industrial shutdowns due to gas shortages.
3. Indonesia: Facing potential shortages with risk of riots, with a history of unrest over fuel prices. The Detroit News +4

Factors Driving the Unrest

1. Disrupted Supply: The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has severely limited oil shipments.
2. Panic Buying: Shortages have driven consumers to hoard fuel, exacerbating the crisis.
3. Economic Strain: High prices and shortages are causing massive, violent demonstrations, especially in developing nations, according to a Washington Post report. The Washington Post +2

1. Wartime fuel shortages spawn panic, robberies and killings in Asia
   Apr 2, 2026 — Other countries are teetering on the edge of a similar cliff. Indonesia so far has maintained heavy fuel subsidies but may not be ...
   
   The Detroit News
2. Wartime fuel shortages spawn panic, robberies and killings in Asia
   Apr 2, 2026 — Fuel shortages in Asia are causing violence and instability. The shortages are due to: * **Iran's retaliation for the U.S.-Israeli...
   
   The Washington Post
3. Fuel rations and free buses: How countries have responded to rising oil prices
   Apr 21, 2026 — Philippines. The Philippines declared a national emergency, with its government offering subsidies to transport drivers, reducing ...
   
   BBC

eu daily
Maybe we need bounce level.



1h
I am just guessing this is wave 3 of 5. But it would make bottom of wave 1 have high resistance because waves 1 and 5 don't like eachother.

I'm supposed to short the ea bounces.

and so it begins....honestly and sadly I think the "good will" has already left.

gu 4h
not sure but could be choch.
i marked the oprimum trading entry area. (62% to 79%)

He may have lost the Arabs. They have dealt with the usd for their security. If they don't have security, what's the point? They have a shitload of usd with their income cut off. They will have to sell usd just to pay bills. The common people were getting checks for generations, for just being citizens. If those checks stop, what do you think happens to the kings? No money for social programs, no money for the military. A potential change leadership. People who lose a means to buy the higher cost food and water. Can rise in unrest. The peasants can rush the castle. What about Dubai without water and air condition? It and other places would be a ghost town. This is all in jeopardy. Than you will have migration to other places with food. Those places can be overthrown. Lack of food puts the hoarders in jeopardy. It can happen very fast. Men and women will do things to feed their children. The hoarders of the usd will need to spend those usd to fix what's broken. But the longer this goes on, they may lose power over their countries. DT may have fucked up the deals we have had with the Mid East for generations. Ironically they are the ones who supported the wolf that's eats their sheep. Iran could end Israel by taking away all the water. But they are playing chess with the Oil producers. That's their checkmate move. The entire world will suffer over this moron.

Its been nearly 2 months since the Straight was closed. If the water plants used for desalination are destroyed. They could run out of water first. Without fuel for transportation. Food supplies will be harder to distribute. Iran can hit the unprotected food storage if it wants. There is no secrets here.
Major Gulf oil-producing states, primarily within the GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council), currently hold strategic food reserves designed to last four to six months for essential staples. These stockpiles are part of robust food security strategies developed following previous supply chain disruptions, allowing them to withstand temporary disruptions to shipping routes, such as the Strait of Hormuz.
Reuters +3

1. Saudi Arabia: Maintains strategic reserves covering 2-4 months of staples, including wheat, rice, sugar, and cooking oil. The General Food Security Authority manages these reserves.
2. United Arab Emirates (UAE): Holds a 4-6 month stockpile of essential goods, managed to endure high desert temperatures (4°C to 60°C).
3. Qatar: Maintains a significant Food Security Terminal at Hamad Port, featuring dozens of climate-controlled silos for storing grains. Reuters +4

Key Aspects of Regional Food Storage:

1. Focus on Staples: The 4-6 month reserves are specifically for durable goods like grains, sugar, and oils. Perishables, such as fresh fruits (of which 82% are imported), generally have a storage life of no more than two weeks.
2. Strategic Redundancy: The UAE, for instance, has opened dedicated grain silos on the Indian Ocean coast (Fujairah) to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, providing a "pressure valve" against potential maritime blockades.
3. Import Dependence: Despite these reserves, Saudi Arabia and the UAE import over 80-90% of their total food requirements.
4. Long-Term Strategy: These nations are heavily investing in technology (vertical farming, aquaculture) and agricultural land in other countries to reduce reliance on immediate imports. The World Economic Forum +5

Note: These figures are based on reports from March/April 2026 highlighting food security measures during ongoing geopolitical tensions.
Agroberichten Buitenland +1

1. Gulf food strategy tested as Iran war snarls shipping routes
   Mar 5, 2026 — GULF COOPERATION. Apart from investing abroad to secure access to major food production bases, Gulf states have also been construc...
   
   Reuters
2. Impact of the Middle East war on food systems in the GCC
   Apr 1, 2026 — Food security plans in action * Saudi Arabia, with the largest population in the GCC of about 36 million, imports 80-85% of its fo...
   
   Agroberichten Buitenland
3. The GCC is increasing food security through innovation
   Feb 14, 2025 — Government initiatives combined with fruitful public-private partnership projects will add further value to agriculture, the food ...
   
   The World Economic Forum

I took one..

EU is currently in this area. I don't like dodging tweets trading the usd. Its been risky for over a year now. Its tech wise to me, weak below 1744. But less usd is doing business from the outside countries. Canadians and others are not visiting as much. Less oil sold in usd. More food inflation equals less money to spend on U.S. techs. China (and world) buying less grain, and hogs. Japan, China ME are buying less treasuries. All equals less usd demand. DT hit the u.s. economy (USD) on all fronts.

Just remember these reports don't include the oil inflation. That's the elephant in the room.
Q1 2026 earnings reports have started strongly, with 88% of S&P 500 companies reporting actual EPS above estimates, surpassing the 5-year average of 78%. Key tech and chip companies, including Intel and AMD, have driven early positive sentiment, with analysts expecting a sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit earnings growth.
FactSet +4
Key Takeaways for Q1 2026 Earnings

1. Strong Beats: Companies are exceeding projections by 10.8% in aggregate, which is significantly higher than the 5-year average of 7.3%.
2. Tech Sector Strength: Intel reported strong results that blew past estimates, causing shares to soar. Other companies like Procter & Gamble and various industrial firms also started with solid results.
3. AI Focus: The focus has shifted to which firms are successfully monetizing artificial intelligence, rather than just investing in it.
4. Market Impact: The Nasdaq 100 has traded at all-time highs, driven by high expectations and solid results from large-cap tech companies.
5. Key Trends: Despite high valuations and geopolitical risks, market optimism remains high, though companies have noted higher oil prices due to international

wtf

If EU closes this week below 1706, and opens below 1706. That could help it fall. If not there is a potential to gap open below 1706. My outlooks was ea has the better chance to be bearish. One tweet could help or hurt the eu. The aud to me looks stronger than the other majors. I dont know why. Oil should hurt the aud. But the new refining of rare earth may be helping it enough. I would think if and after this Iran situation is solved. More countries will want to find another way. Not oil based such as electric, or hydrogen. National security wise: a new solution has to be in the works for many countries. A refinery on the roof is better than depending on others.

The AJ may be a good buy is you get a signal. Strong verse weak

another wtf

Near AJ supports.. Staying above is the key to higher.. Closing below is not what I want.
The possible problem with ea is it is at/near a ATH..