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Karmo's trading strategy trading GBP/JPY

  • #121
  • Aug 30, 2007 3:43am Aug 30, 2007 3:43am
Here's the daily chart with the fibs, the first try to break the 50% level failed, we might be going for another try and if it successfully breaks, we will see 238.80 which is my 2nd TP.

http://img263.imageshack.us/img263/1627/gjlk5.gif
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #122
  • Aug 30, 2007 3:47am Aug 30, 2007 3:47am
based on the 4H, we retraced 50% of the bull run and then started heading back up, seems like we're testing the 23.6% again.. I'm expecting price to rise to 235.50

http://img256.imageshack.us/img256/8873/gjrk9.gif
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #123
  • Aug 30, 2007 7:21am Aug 30, 2007 7:21am
Quoting greenfrog
Karmostaji,

I follow the other thread quite closely and have noticed that you have a fibo line at 232.61 (61.8). I have been able to learn how to draw the fibo lines and for some reason I do not have a line there. How did you determine where to draw your line from. I thought I had it figured out. Here is what my chart looks like. Any guidance you can give me would be great.
Right after you put on the fibo lines a properties window will open up...click on Fibo Levels tab...0 should show in the left coulumn under Level...0.0 should show in the right column under Description. Click on add or default in order to get the 0.0 to show. I can't remember just how to do it and I don't want to play with my own too much...sometimes MT4 is tricky and I'm concerned about getting things back the way I want them. Hope this helps.
  • #124
  • Sep 1, 2007 6:15am Sep 1, 2007 6:15am
Looking at my charts, we will have a big fall next week..

Weekly chart:

I don't remember what we call this last candle but it is a sign of a big fall

http://img105.imageshack.us/img105/9029/gjvr1.gif


Daily chart:

On the daily chart, we have completed 50% retracement as you can see


http://img167.imageshack.us/img167/2357/gjog0.gif


4H chart:

We are in a nice downtrend channel, and if we take the fib from 244 to the low of 219, we have completed 61.8% retracement, so to me we should be heading downwards from here..

http://img252.imageshack.us/img252/8899/gjdh6.gif
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #125
  • Sep 1, 2007 6:46am Sep 1, 2007 6:46am
hi all
next week cuse of narrow volume of trades possibly the pair should test 61.8
around 239 to 243 after it i am waitig for new low's

for next week i look at any deep toward 229 as buy oportunity.

best regards
  • #126
  • Sep 1, 2007 9:51am Sep 1, 2007 9:51am
the problem of decisions in trendlines and channels... is always the same.. will it be a big bounce? or a big breakout ?
  • #127
  • Edited 9:29am Sep 2, 2007 8:58am | Edited 9:29am
karmo, i already explained on aus' thread the candlestick pattern.
here is again the weekly chart.
you probably think that what you saw is a hanging man (because you expect a fall judging by that candle...). it's not a hanging man because there is no previous uptrend. it's not enough for a candle to look like something, but more important is WHERE is located and IF there is a confirmation.
actually, the weekly chart shows a piercing pattern (which might suggest a reversal from the last big fall, so we should see the trend resuming UP, not down). except that this piercing pattern has not been confirmed yet; this week should have been closed ABOVE last bullish candle.
now let's talk about the downside: for this piercing pattern to be negated, g-j needs to go at least below 219.31 (either a lower low, but i would need to see a close below this level). only in this case the downtrend will resume.
now something else... that candle also look like another pattern reversal: a hammer (a hanging man and a hammer look exactly the same, it's just their location that is different). we might assume it would be a hammer because it is located in a downtrend... but that would also be considered as a reversal sign. now let's put it all together: downtrend... then piercing pattern... then something that looks like a hammer... i would say that weekly chart does not support AT ALL a big fall. at least, not until these patterns are negated.
h4 and daily, on the other side, do suggest a fall to some extent. which is all that matters for me now, because i'm not trading weekly candles on g-j.

regarding the daily chart, yes, we had a 50% retracement from the whole drop and a 61.8% retracement from the last swing. it should be enough to make us watch for a reversal. add the reverse divergence on major oscillators and the picture is pretty suggestive. however, daily chart does not show a valid reversal pattern (and i'm talking about a candlestick pattern) yet.

the most bearish looking chart is h4. i'm not going below h4. that's just noise.


Quoting karmostaji
Looking at my charts, we will have a big fall next week..

Weekly chart:

I don't remember what we call this last candle but it is a sign of a big fall



Daily chart:

On the daily chart, we have completed 50% retracement as you can see




4H chart:

We are in a nice downtrend channel, and if we take the fib from 244 to the low of 219, we have completed 61.8% retracement, so to me we should be heading downwards from here..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gjwc.gif Size: 15 KB
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #128
  • Sep 2, 2007 10:22am Sep 2, 2007 10:22am
Thanks for the clarification Scrat, appreciate it

We learn something new everyday
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #129
  • Sep 8, 2007 5:27am Sep 8, 2007 5:27am
Weekly analysis:

Weekly chart:

As I had predicted that last week would be a bear week and it indeed turned out to be so, now looking at the weekly fibonacci levels, GJ is looking to retest the 50%, 61.8% and even touching 76.4% which is 212.45 area, the weekly chart is still bullish unless we get a weekly bar closing below the lower TL, then things will change but in my prediction we will touch the 76.4% in the coming weeks

http://img509.imageshack.us/img509/1134/gjmw1.gif


Daily chart:

As we have seen in the past weeks, GJ retraced 50% of the move down and it has started to resume it's bearish trend now. The last day of the week, the candle closed well below the 38.2% fibonacci level, the next level is the 23.6% which is also close to the weekly 50%

http://img295.imageshack.us/img295/526/gjst9.gif


4H chart:

Looking at the Green fibs, we completed 61.8% retracement and price has started to resume it's bearish trend. I also added the orange fibs, all these fibonacci are good levels to keep an eye on, the beast will take a rest at some of these levels like it did at the 76.4% (orange)

http://img172.imageshack.us/img172/9167/gjwk0.gif


so, in simple words.. I also see 212 in the coming weeks/month
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #130
  • Sep 8, 2007 7:27am Sep 8, 2007 7:27am
Greetings Limpopo, your name sounds familiar. Nice to see such a name on this forum. I'm from Africa but am living and working in Canada at the moment. I'm just hooked on this GBPJPY beast. Have a nice weekend, mfo wethu.
  • #131
  • Sep 8, 2007 9:07am Sep 8, 2007 9:07am
Usually if it retraces to 61 it retraces all the way to 100.
  • #132
  • Sep 8, 2007 10:09am Sep 8, 2007 10:09am
Quoting PTOURNIS
Usually if it retraces to 61 it retraces all the way to 100.
Good luck.
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #133
  • Sep 8, 2007 2:54pm Sep 8, 2007 2:54pm
I just updated the first post, I explained how I use the Momentum indicator & 5sma to catch a retracement!
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #134
  • Sep 8, 2007 3:48pm Sep 8, 2007 3:48pm
Quoting karmostaji
I just updated the first post, I explained how I use the Momentum indicator & 5sma to catch a retracement!
Quoting karmostaji
Momentum & 5sma
Before using the Momentum indicator and 5sma, you must have auslanco's QQE indicator. I'll explain how to catch a retracement in this following example:
When QQE 4h is crossed upwards, and QQE 1hr is crossed upwards, and the Momentum at the beginning of the next 1h candle is pointing downwards, price will usually retrace to 1hr 5sma, it's that simple.
Quoting karmostaji
the important thing about momentum is where it is pointing at the beginning of the new candle.

Thanks Karmo,

Jim
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #135
  • Sep 8, 2007 8:15pm Sep 8, 2007 8:15pm
Quoting karmostaji
Weekly analysis:

Weekly chart:

As I had predicted that last week would be a bear week and it indeed turned out to be so, now looking at the weekly fibonacci levels, GJ is looking to retest the 50%, 61.8% and even touching 76.4% which is 212.45 area, the weekly chart is still bullish unless we get a weekly bar closing below the lower TL, then things will change but in my prediction we will touch the 76.4% in the coming weeks




Daily chart:

As we have seen in the past weeks, GJ retraced 50% of the move down and it has started to resume it's bearish trend now. The last day of the week, the candle closed well below the 38.2% fibonacci level, the next level is the 23.6% which is also close to the weekly 50%




4H chart:

Looking at the Green fibs, we completed 61.8% retracement and price has started to resume it's bearish trend. I also added the orange fibs, all these fibonacci are good levels to keep an eye on, the beast will take a rest at some of these levels like it did at the 76.4% (orange)




so, in simple words.. I also see 212 in the coming weeks/month
Great charts. Great analysis. Great work.

Thanks again, karmo.

Jim
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #136
  • Sep 9, 2007 12:43pm Sep 9, 2007 12:43pm
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Quoting karmostaji
Good job Kevin, they look great


Excellent trendlines and fib combination going on there ovidiu, I like the weekly fib and that lower trendline, interesting area to watch, and we are indeed in a downtrend channel on the 4H chart

Regarding posting charts:

  1. Open MT4
  2. File > save as picture, then click OK
  3. go to www.imageshack.us
  4. upload the pic, take the URL and post it here

Another way

Save as picture - on desktop
when writing your post click on the paperclip next to the smilies. a upload facility will open, browes, select image, upload, click paperclip to open.

quick and easy.
  • #137
  • Sep 9, 2007 12:49pm Sep 9, 2007 12:49pm
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Quoting PTB
Right after you put on the fibo lines a properties window will open up...click on Fibo Levels tab...0 should show in the left coulumn under Level...0.0 should show in the right column under Description. Click on add or default in order to get the 0.0 to show. I can't remember just how to do it and I don't want to play with my own too much...sometimes MT4 is tricky and I'm concerned about getting things back the way I want them. Hope this helps.
when you set a MT4 indicator the way you like it save it under another name ie PTB fib 1
that way you can play with other variations.

best way to do this is to save the file and open an identical chart and add the renamed indicator. jsu to check the saved file works the same way.
  • #138
  • Sep 9, 2007 2:14pm Sep 9, 2007 2:14pm
Thanks for all your work on this Karmo.
I really appreciate it. I don't usually trade GJ but EJ instead, but the trends are virtually itendtical so it's been helpful to read your input.

Thanks again.
  • #139
  • Sep 13, 2007 10:21pm Sep 13, 2007 10:21pm
Greetings Karmo

I'm amazed at the way you do trading. I'm new in this line, tho' been learning since Feb07, i'm yet to discover more. Its interesting to learn about GJ and i as i've been following your thread only recently, im beginning to notice that all tips are great.. Hence, i shall keep coming here for more and is there anyway i can contact you on YM. Thnks very much and may God bless you!

quote=karmostaji;1546483]I said in my first post that every trade could and will draw his fibonacci retracement different. I use the monthly/weekly just to get an idea of where price might be heading, I mostly concentrate on the daily and 4H charts since I trade everyday.

I draw my fibs from the top of a bear run until it stops and retracement starts, and from the bottom of a bull run till it stops and starts to retrace. You'll know more what I mean when I post my 4H charts everyday.[/quote]
  • #140
  • Sep 15, 2007 10:30am Sep 15, 2007 10:30am
Quoting dakrusha
Thanks for all your work on this Karmo.
I really appreciate it. I don't usually trade GJ but EJ instead, but the trends are virtually itendtical so it's been helpful to read your input.

Thanks again.
Quoting Alys59
Greetings Karmo

I'm amazed at the way you do trading. I'm new in this line, tho' been learning since Feb07, i'm yet to discover more. Its interesting to learn about GJ and i as i've been following your thread only recently, im beginning to notice that all tips are great.. Hence, i shall keep coming here for more and is there anyway i can contact you on YM. Thnks very much and may God bless you!
You are most welcome dakrusha and Alys59, we are here to learn and help
Trade what you see, not what you think.
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