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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #18,801
  • Aug 30, 2007 7:14am Aug 30, 2007 7:14am
Quoting waf_1988
How strong will the impact of the news to the pair?! You know, it is US news, will not have direct impact on the GJ
Well look at the correlation between the UJ and GJ recently - this news will move the UJ and therefore the GJ.
  • #18,802
  • Aug 30, 2007 7:15am Aug 30, 2007 7:15am
Quoting karmostaji
I look at it like this..

USD news impacts USD/JPY

USD/JPY impacts XXX/JPY

so good USD news, GJ go up
so bad USD news, GJ go down
I know, how if good US news, GJ goes down?

GU will have direct impact, so, G actually affecting GJ, so...Please advise
Hello World
  • #18,803
  • Aug 30, 2007 7:15am Aug 30, 2007 7:15am
Quoting waf_1988
How strong will the impact of the news to the pair?! You know, it is US news, will not have direct impact on the GJ

usually when there's good news for US g/u goes down and when g/u does down g/j usually goes down too.Hope this helps.
  • #18,804
  • Aug 30, 2007 7:19am Aug 30, 2007 7:19am
Quoting safeace
usually when there's good news for US g/u goes down and when g/u does down g/j usually goes down too.Hope this helps.
The current environment is all about risk aversion - did you see what happened when new home sales came out better than expected? Did GU go down? No, it shot up! GJ went up too.. and so did UJ.

Why? Because any good US news right now helps calm the stock markets, and the carry traders.
  • #18,805
  • Aug 30, 2007 7:21am Aug 30, 2007 7:21am
Quoting safeace
usually when there's good news for US g/u goes down and when g/u does down g/j usually goes down too.Hope this helps.
OK, thanks...
Hello World
  • #18,806
  • Aug 30, 2007 7:22am Aug 30, 2007 7:22am
Quoting safeace
usually when there's good news for US g/u goes down and when g/u does down g/j usually goes down too.Hope this helps.
disagree with everyone when GU+UJ go down = GJ goes down

Check your charts. That will tell the story.. major US news releases have a different effect to both GU and UJ.
  • #18,807
  • Aug 30, 2007 7:22am Aug 30, 2007 7:22am
Quoting safeace
usually when there's good news for US g/u goes down and when g/u does down g/j usually goes down too.Hope this helps.
Not necessarily, need to look at how USD/JPY performs. Back to my treasuries data again (pls don't underestimate this data). That's where the exchange rate difference is coming from each day.
If treasuries up or down, JPY investors will look at it to get the difference in return. For us, it's just a small fraction difference, but for them, investing millions or billions, makes huge different.
Ok, but this data wouldn't make a good call without Aus' strategies. Hope you will study and learn it.
  • #18,808
  • Aug 30, 2007 7:23am Aug 30, 2007 7:23am
Quoting VishalJ
The current environment is all about risk aversion - did you see what happened when new home sales came out better than expected? Did GU go down? No, it shot up! GJ went up too.. and so did UJ.

Why? Because any good US news right now helps calm the stock markets, and the carry traders.


This is what I'm talking about
  • #18,809
  • Aug 30, 2007 7:23am Aug 30, 2007 7:23am
Quoting VishalJ
The current environment is all about risk aversion - did you see what happened when new home sales came out better than expected? Did GU go down? No, it shot up! GJ went up too.. and so did UJ.

Why? Because any good US news right now helps calm the stock markets, and the carry traders.
<MENU> to return to headlines. Index T O P
1 <GO> to view photo.
U.S. Stock-Index Futures Retreat; Goldman, Merrill Decline Page 1/5
By Andreas Hippin and Michael Patterson
Aug. 30 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stock-index futures fell after
Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. said earnings at the country's
largest securities firms will be hurt by credit-market turmoil.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Morgan Stanley and Merrill Lynch &
Co. dropped after Lehman cut its profit estimates for this year
and next.
Standard & Poor's 500 Index futures expiring in September
lost 6.7 to 1,458.7 as of 8:14 a.m. in New York. Dow Jones
Industrial Average futures dropped 50 to 13,261. Nasdaq-100 Index
futures decreased 3.75 to 1,957.25.
Lehman reduced its earnings estimates for Wall Street's top
investment banks two days after Merrill Lynch analyst Guy
Moszkowski slashed his projections. Financial shares in the S&P
500, which comprise about one-fifth of the index's value, have
tumbled 9 percent this year amid concern that higher borrowing
costs spurred by subprime mortgage defaults will erode earnings
from trading and debt underwriting.

MORE TO COME @ 8:30EST....
  • #18,810
  • Aug 30, 2007 7:24am Aug 30, 2007 7:24am
How about FLIP a COIN ??

  • #18,811
  • Aug 30, 2007 7:24am Aug 30, 2007 7:24am
It's real simple. If US news is good for US stock market, GJ goes up. If bad for stock market GJ goes down. Who cares what happens to GU and UJ (unless you trade those pairs).
  • #18,812
  • Aug 30, 2007 7:27am Aug 30, 2007 7:27am
Quoting karmostaji
I look at it like this..

USD news impacts USD/JPY

USD/JPY impacts XXX/JPY

so good USD news, GJ go up
so bad USD news, GJ go down
Hmmm. I thought the other way around. Good US News, EUR will go down, pound will go down so will GJ

Bad US news EUR, pound will go up and gJ as well.
Haste not to Enter AND Haste not to Exit !-TradeStar
  • #18,813
  • Aug 30, 2007 7:27am Aug 30, 2007 7:27am
dum dee dum , dum dee dum
my hearts poundin !
submarines or rockets?

get ready ladies and gentleman

this post will self destruct

  • #18,814
  • Aug 30, 2007 7:27am Aug 30, 2007 7:27am
Quoting auslanco
Looked like a NY open consolidation.. but I don't rule out a good bullish move as well looking at the new 4hr momentum.
Major consolidation over the last 8 hours. The 4H momentum has been pointing up very bullish the last 8 hours and the stinking GBP/JPY has fallen 200 pips! That tells us that the lower TF's have been working things out (consolidating). And look where it brought us to at the beginning of NY: 231.40-70 area. Look familiar? Major Fibo and price support (and resistance) over the last week or so. It's getting ready to move big IMO after this major consolidation. It could go either way but I am leaning toward upward only because of the persistence of the 4H momentum. It has to pull price up eventually, but what do I know.

M2B
  • #18,815
  • Aug 30, 2007 7:28am Aug 30, 2007 7:28am
g/u shooting up
  • #18,816
  • Edited 7:38am Aug 30, 2007 7:28am | Edited 7:38am
Aus

QQE 30 min with your set up, is just an AMAZING indicator!!!

Thanks...and sorry for polluting the Forum, but I couldnt resist LOL

Pepe
  • #18,817
  • Aug 30, 2007 7:37am Aug 30, 2007 7:37am
30min crossed up... it's long for me
  • #18,818
  • Aug 30, 2007 7:37am Aug 30, 2007 7:37am
4.1% Meet expetations
  • #18,819
  • Aug 30, 2007 7:38am Aug 30, 2007 7:38am
Current US 10 yrs treasuries is at -0.1 (negative), as long as it stays red, this pair wouldn't go anywhere but down
Alright then, I might limit my post later on .. hope y'll get the idea.
  • #18,820
  • Aug 30, 2007 7:38am Aug 30, 2007 7:38am
Hey - where did everyone go....
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