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Daily Market Analysis (04.23.2026) | zForex.com

  • #1
  • First Post: Apr 23, 2026 2:17am Apr 23, 2026 2:17am
Strait Standoff Won’t Let Inflation Cool (04.23.2026)

The United States and Iran remain locked in a standoff over the Strait of Hormuz, restricting access following failed peace talks.

EUR/USD traded near 1.1710, Gold drifted toward $4,700 per ounce, Silver slipped to roughly $76 per ounce, GBP/USD slipped below 1.3500, USD/JPY remained steady around 159.5, Bitcoin hovered around $77,700, Brent crude climbed to around $104 per barrel, Nasdaq 100 advanced to 26,74, and The offshore yuan weakened to around 6.83 per dollar.

Trump confirmed that the ceasefire will stay in place without a fixed timeline as Washington awaits Tehran’s proposal, while Iran continues to resist negotiations under current conditions.

The ongoing disruption has pushed oil prices higher, pushing inflation concerns worldwide and raising fresh worries about supply shortages and broader economic strain.

With energy risks still in focus, inflation pressures remain persistent, strengthening expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged while markets look to upcoming economic data for clearer direction.

The US 10-year Treasury yield climbed to around 4.31%, its highest level in more than a week, as elevated energy costs reinforced expectations that interest rates will stay steady. The dollar index held near 98.5, close to a one-week high, supported by continued demand for safety.

Attention now turns to jobless claims and PMI data for clearer economic signals.

Technical Outlook on Charts
Policy Patience Keeps Euro Afloat
Gold’s Shine Fades for Now
Waiting on Tokyo, Watching Oil
Pound Tests the Floor at 1.35
Silver Feels the Weight of Energy Costs
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  • #2
  • Apr 23, 2026 3:45am Apr 23, 2026 3:45am
Germany’s Growth Engine Stumbles Again
Germany’s PMI data signals renewed weakness, with activity slipping toward contraction. The early-year stability now looks fragile. The slowdown is broad and becoming harder to ignore.

Manufacturing Holds the Line, Momentum is Fading
Manufacturing PMI edged down to 51.2, still in expansion but losing strength. Output continues, but momentum is clearly softer. Demand looks weaker and production expectations are turning cautious.

Services Slip Into Contraction Territory
Services PMI dropped sharply to 46.9, well below expectations. This is a key shift, as services had been supporting growth. Weakness here raises concerns about consumer demand.

Composite Index Sends a Clear Warning
Composite PMI fell to 48.3, marking the first contraction in nearly a year. Both manufacturing and services are now under pressure. This suggests a broader slowdown, not a temporary dip.

Weakness Extends Beyond Germany
France and the wider Eurozone show similar weakness, with PMIs also below forecasts. The slowdown is spreading across the region. Business confidence is clearly under pressure.

Policy Tension Builds
Slower growth supports the case for rate cuts, but inflation risks remain. Energy prices continue to complicate the outlook. The next data will be key for policy direction.
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  • #3
  • Apr 23, 2026 3:46am Apr 23, 2026 3:46am
Eurozone PMI Slips Into Contraction
Eurozone Composite PMI fell to 48.6, back below the 50 level. This is a 17-month low and signals a shift into contraction. Momentum is clearly weakening as Q2 begins.

Services Sector Leads the Decline
Services PMI dropped to 47.4, the lowest in over five years. This is critical since services had been driving growth. Demand is now visibly slowing.

Manufacturing Holds Up, But with Caution
Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.2, showing continued expansion. However, much of this looks like inventory building, not real demand. Companies are acting defensively amid uncertainty.

Energy and Costs Add Pressure
Middle East tensions are pushing energy prices higher, increasing input costs. Inflation pressures are rising again, while supply chains are slowing. This creates a difficult operating environment.

Confidence Drops, Outlook Weakens
Business confidence has fallen to its lowest since late 2022. Growth is slowing while inflation risks remain, putting the ECB in a tight spot. The next few months will be key for direction.
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  • #4
  • Apr 23, 2026 4:01am Apr 23, 2026 4:01am
Japan’s Exports Gain Momentum Despite Iran Conflict

Japan’s exports rose 11.7% year-on-year in March, reaching their second-highest level since May 2024 and accelerating from 4.0% growth in February Shipments to China led the advance, climbing 17.7%, supported by strong demand for chips, electronic components, and industrial metals.

Imports also increased 10.9% annually, lifting the trade surplus to roughly $4.2 billion, the highest level since December 2020. Crude oil imports by value declined 7.3%, as deliveries scheduled before the conflict continued to arrive through mid-March.

China’s demand remains a key engine behind Japan’s economic activity.
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  • #5
  • Apr 23, 2026 4:16am Apr 23, 2026 4:16am
A generational divide in the stock market is reaching new extremes.

Americans aged 70 and older now control a record 17% of all stocks and investment fund assets in the United States, nearly three times the share seen during the 2008 financial crisis.

Those under 40 hold just 3% of these assets, a level unchanged since 2003 and only half of what their age group owned in the late 1980s.

The result is a widening ownership gap between generations. The difference has climbed to roughly 14 percentage points, the largest on record, compared with about 6 points in the early 1990s.

Wealth in financial markets is concentrating among older generations.
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  • #6
  • Apr 23, 2026 6:38am Apr 23, 2026 6:38am
Policy Patience Keeps Euro Afloat

EUR/USD traded just above the 1.1700 threshold, hovering near 1.1710 after the extension of the U.S.–Iran ceasefire reduced immediate pressure on markets. Trump indicated that Iran faces no strict timeline to submit its proposal, allowing sentiment to stabilize.

ECB policymaker Martins Kazaks signaled that officials are comfortable waiting for more decisive economic evidence before reconsidering interest rates.

The pair faces resistance at 1.1760, while the nearest support stands at 1.1640.

R1: 1.1760 S1: 1.1640
R2: 1.1800 S2: 1.1590
R3: 1.1850 S3: 1.1550
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  • #7
  • Apr 23, 2026 6:39am Apr 23, 2026 6:39am
Gold’s Shine Fades for Now

Gold retreated toward $4,700 per ounce, surrendering earlier strength as persistent strain around the Strait of Hormuz continued to push energy costs higher. Iran’s firm control over the route and ongoing U.S. restrictions have tightened shipping flows, reinforcing inflation concerns and weighing on demand for precious metals.

The prolonged standoff has left the metal roughly 10% lower since the conflict began despite the open-ended ceasefire.

The metal’s first resistance is seen at $4770, with initial support near $4640.
R1: 4770 S1: 4640
R2: 4860 S2: 4580
R3: 4950 S3: 4520
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  • #8
  • Apr 23, 2026 6:40am Apr 23, 2026 6:40am
Waiting on Tokyo, Watching Oil

USD/JPY held steady as attention shifted to upcoming economic releases from Japan and the United States. Japan reported a ¥667 billion trade surplus in March, driven by 11.7% annual export growth, while imports climbed due to higher fuel costs.

Rising oil prices tied to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz continue to weigh on the yen, keeping markets focused on forthcoming CPI figures, U.S. PMI data, and inflation expectations for direction.

Initial resistance stands at 159.70, while the first support is located at 159.00.

R1: 159.70 S1: 159.00
R2: 160.50 S2: 158.60
R3: 161.30 S3: 157.80
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  • #9
  • Apr 23, 2026 6:40am Apr 23, 2026 6:40am
Pound Tests the Floor at 1.35

GBP/USD slipped below 1.3500, now hovering around the nine-day EMA near 1.3493 after a brief pullback. Even with the recent decline, the broader structure still allows room for a recovery toward the 1.3599 peak if support remains intact.

The 14-day RSI near 56 suggests momentum is still constructive, though a sustained break below the moving average could open the door to a deeper correction.

The pair’s support stands near 1.3550, with resistance around 1.3440.

R1: 1.3550 S1: 1.3440
R2: 1.3590 S2: 1.3350
R3: 1.3650 S3: 1.3280
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  • #10
  • Apr 23, 2026 6:41am Apr 23, 2026 6:41am
Silver Feels the Weight of Energy Costs

Silver slipped to roughly $76 per ounce, reversing the previous session’s advance as continued restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz kept energy markets tight.

Iran’s control of the waterway and the ongoing blockade of its ports have disrupted global shipping and sustained upward pressure on fuel costs, intensifying inflation concerns and weighing on industrial metals.

Silver’s resistance stands near $77.80 while support is located around $74.00.

R1: 77.80 S1: 74.00
R2: 80.50 S2: 72.50
R3: 82.80 S3: 70.00
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  • #11
  • Apr 23, 2026 6:42am Apr 23, 2026 6:42am
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)

Bitcoin hovered around $77,700, easing about 0.7% from the previous session after pushing into the $78,000-$79,000 zone. Institutional demand and improving sentiment have supported the broader structure, yet price swings remain evident, with performance still negative on both a monthly and yearly basis.

Strong trading volumes and repeated breakouts highlight active participation, while the $75,000 area continues to act as a key foundation for short-term stability.

Bitcoin’s first resistance stands at 79,800, while support is at 75,400.
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  • #12
  • Apr 23, 2026 6:43am Apr 23, 2026 6:43am
NASDAQ 100

The US Tech 100 advanced to 26,743, continuing its powerful run as demand for artificial intelligence technologies drove broad gains across major technology names. The index has staged a sharp recovery from earlier declines and now trades near record territory.

While individual stocks like Tesla have shown volatility, the broader trend remains upward, with valuations increasingly stretched after the recent surge.

Resistance is seen at 27,000, while initial support stands near 26,400.
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  • #13
  • Apr 23, 2026 6:43am Apr 23, 2026 6:43am
BRENT CRUDE OIL

Brent crude climbed to around $104 per barrel, marking a fourth straight day of gains as diplomatic efforts stalled and the Strait of Hormuz remained effectively closed.

Iran’s firm grip on the route has constrained global shipping, while the U.S. blockade on Iranian ports has intensified the confrontation. With supply routes under pressure, energy markets continue to price in sustained disruption.

Brent faces resistance at 105.20, with initial support near 101.00.
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  • #14
  • Apr 23, 2026 6:44am Apr 23, 2026 6:44am
Chinese Yuan (USD/CNH)

The offshore yuan weakened to around 6.83 per dollar, marking a third consecutive decline and reaching its lowest level in more than a week. Demand for the dollar strengthened as confrontation in the Strait of Hormuz intensified, including the seizure of vessels and continued enforcement of shipping restrictions.

This environment has kept pressure on regional currencies despite ongoing ceasefire arrangements.

USD/CNH is testing resistance at 6.8520, with support positioned near 6.8180.
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  • #15
  • Last Post: Apr 23, 2026 6:47am Apr 23, 2026 6:47am
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