One Playing Field, Rules for Fools.

I submit the following to your consideration in the hope it may spark some interesting contributions of your own.


Popular Technical Analysis tools and concepts include Fibonacci retracements and projections, trend lines, Elliot wave structure, simple previous highs and lows and others. These provide a set of criteria for analyzing price movement and are used in practice for entering positions in the market in a certain direction.

Such known criteria present opportunities to find volume to build or unload good size positions. Any publicly known system, that can put significant positions ("liquidity") on one side, lends itself to be used to create and exploit volumes. A market participant with large enough resources, or a combination of participants acting in a coordinated fashion either through direct communication or from a knowledge built on experience, can, at first, act on the broadly recognized signal to create a position or a bias, and after, it or they could build a position counter off of the new entrants, to then run over the original signal running their stops, thereby profiting and possibly advancing price in a desired direction.

There are other ways to exploit known positioning triggers. One quite benign would be to signal trend resumption in conformity to a certain known TA rule.

In fact it is easy enough to find a swing that ex-post respected, in general, some known TA concept or rule. It could take the form of a three wave correction or it could show turns around significant previous highs and lows, or at Fibo, or bounce off a trend line or something else. Superficially preserving the semblance of a structure or rationale, that is, at the same time, simple, publicly known and capable of explaining price moves, or predicting or even dictating them. What isn't so apparent are all the instances within the swing when many TA concepts where violated.

Price doesn't reverse direction at a widely recognized signal because a plurality of subjects act on it. It does so only if no significant forces act against it. The market isn't a neutral field reflecting a consensus of value or supply and demand forces. Instead, it is an active playing field in which widely recognized signals are used to enter or exit positions, for the purpose of extracting profits.

I believe that a lot of what goes on in trading is a succession of plays exploiting known positioning triggers, "rules for fools", so to say.

The concept has been put in music by Alan Parson's Project, "Eye in the Sky"
(best song ever written about trading )



Don't think sorry is easily said,
Don't try turning tables instead,
You've taken lots of chances before,
but I ain't gonna give any more don't ask me
that's how it goes
because part of me knows what you are thinking.

Don't say words you're gonna regret
Don't let fire rush to your head,
I've heard the accusation before,
and I ain't gonna take anymore, believe me
the sun in your eyes made some of the lies worth believing

I am the eye in the sky
looking at you I can read your mind
I am the maker of rules dealing with fools
I can cheat you blind
and I don't need to see anymore to know that
I can read your mind
(looking at you) [four times]

Don't leave false illusion behind
Don't cry I ain't changing my mind
So find another fool like before
'cause I ain't gonna live anymore believing some of the lies
while all of the signs are deceiving

I am the eye in the sky
looking at you I can read your mind
I am the maker of rules
dealing with fools
I can cheat you blind
and I don't need to see anymore to know that
I can read your mind
(looking at you) [four times]

I am the eye in the sky
looking at you I can read your mind
I am the maker of rules
dealing with fools
I can cheat you blind
and I don't need to see anymore to know that
I can read your mind
(looking at you) [four times]

Dear Endoephemera,
The market is structured in a way that is both smart and sustainable, keeping the active trend hidden. Only knowledgeable traders can decode it.
The real challenge is that no one can predict the market using a single time frame. Most traders fail to understand the team game across multiple time frames. Even after grasping the trend, that alone isn’t enough. Traders must also master execution-clear entry rules-and, most importantly, trade management, meaning exits based on market behavior.

I believe the logic of the chart is the same for all skilled traders. Their entries and, especially, their exits follow that logic repeatedly. Joining that “special group” requires years of chart-watching experience and relentless pursuit of the underlying logic of market movements.

Colorful indicators and flashy tools are meaningless. If they truly worked, everyone would be profitable.

It’s easy to blame institutions for hunting retail stop-losses, but in reality, the market naturally moves in a zigzag style. Even when you understand the trend, you’ll notice the market often refuses to go further after offering 1-2% profit. That’s the nature of the market-it moves in a balanced way. And that balance is the beauty and the true story of trading, something we must respect.

Edited for clarity.

EURUSD, the last 9 sessions, starting from 20260414, 15 minutes bars. Using MT5 software.

61.8% of the swing 1.20821 to 1.14107 is commonly believed to be a significant level, triggering positions.
Price approaches very near and moves away. Then it crosses it to the upside with momentum. Only to reverse down making quickly a large drop of about 120 PiPs, including the gap down open on Monday. All small positions taken at or around the indicated level, acting on its presumed significance, have been forced into loss. Those holding short out of a down bias because, "plus or minus 20 PiPs the signal is kind of valid", will be taken out in the next few days.

The same concept played out later in the week around another common position (or bias) triggering tool, the trend lines. Crossing them one way and the other (The solid trend line has anchors 1.14107 on 20260313 23:42 and 1.14430 on 20260319 11:42).

But now look at the chart below. Same trend lines, different chart settings, 4 hours bars and different scaling. Price appears to bounce off the trend line. This is because of an error in the MT5 software that shifts the line anchors. The trend lines are holding or have been broken or maybe yes... but perhaps not. In reality it's immaterial. In fact the money was made in trading against their classical interpretation.

The pictures above present a simplified view, showing only three instances of a couple of tools. If one were to keep track of all of them it would get impossibly messy, but we would find many more instances of price moving against common expectations. For example, one can see many occurrences of price reversing sharply after a new high or low, instead of continuing, including at 1.18492.

A lot of what goes on in trading is using known position or bias triggers, based on common charting tools, methods and practices to induce into positions and then move against them, triggering stops. All that, while preserving the illusion that the same common tools show a structure having predictive potential. Rules for fools.

I believe that the trendy and commonly used strategies don't work because they predictably shift liquidity or the lack thereof to one side or the other. and whales take advantage of this.