Bitcoin trading calls

Selling just doesn't look strong either. Certainly not the power moves we were seeing in December and January. And we are seeing some powerful, impulsive buys. And how many times can this thing do a head fake above the range and then head back down? The TL's below suggest a strong case for a big move down, but sometimes the market does run away from them.

I hear you Zappa. I think its bitcoin's inbuilt volatility.
Even when the intended move is down it can foray upwards up to 200 points before going the right direction.
Remember your words. You rejected some conclusions because the move was too easy.
Bitcoin is an animal.

Crazy price action today

let see

Yes Olu, 100% my friend.

I think after some stupid fucking trading like Ive started this week with i really need to reflect. I think it might help another trader who reads this too who might have same weaknesses as me.

Im glad ive been posting all this on here. Its not just passing thoughts I can easily forget, its all right here for me to look over.

What i can see is Im confusing my "gut" with fear of missing out (FOMO). Its gotta be my greatest weakness as a trader. Ive struggled with it since I started trading back in 2004. Been at this shit for 22 years now!

It hurts with targets and it hurts me with entries. I really seem to falter around areas where a big breakout or breakdown seems possible. Thats where the bad entries come in and the lack of conviction means I use stops so small that they have good chance of getting hit, and hit they do.

Targets are most difficult part of a trade outside of emotions for me. Its easier to see a place where it should NOT go and put stop there, but to determine where it should go is trickier. What i usually do is set targets pretty far, and see how it looks on the way there. I start to get it in my mind that the target is achievable, and ignore signs that its best to TP. MY FOMO on a bigger target ends up costing me, while if I just traded my signals like a robot Id fare much better.

With the entries, well just look at last 24 hours or so. I even said "it could go either way" in here. That means I dont fucking have any idea which way its going!! And that means I should stay the fuck out! But I didnt. The "potential for big move" was too enticing. If that aint FOMO I dont know what is.

I dont know what else I can do about that to try and improve other than just be more aware of it and more disciplined.

Any ideas folks? How do you handle FOMO?

Hi Zappa
What you talked about is common to all traders.
I fared better this week because I was resolute that I am bearish bitcoin in the big picture.
Were all my trades perfect? No. But my shorts were good.
I sometimes TP too soon as well especially if the instrument is very volatile.
About FOMO, bitcoin has a way of coming back to the beginning of the fomo area. It is a real animal.
One minute you are up 250 point and the next 5 minutes you are stopped out with a loss.
In these cases, I just say a few choice words to myself and move on.
I normally like extreme price trading and then holding for dear life.
For example I have been bleating on and on about the bearish price channel in bitcoin.
The gameplan is short 78 looking for 60 if price permits.
I usually spend a lot of energy (and money) trying to sell the very top of the channel and may have to try 2-3 times.
I missed the 78k entry and therefore became a smaller TF trader.
That gave me loads of headache because many more decisions have to be made and the more screentime I have the more I overtune the trade - move SL, TP or jump in a trade the opposite way

I will say this though, Your analysis is great so keep at it. I have learnt a thing or two from you. There has been a good number of times you have replied to my posts or engaged me in a back and forth that had truly made me rethink my actions because I missed some analysis or something.

Iron sharpens iron.

Thank you Olu. I appreciate your analysis and thoughts too!

Bitcoin is on the march again. It has broken out of yesterday's range to the upside
Stock market is up.
Oil is down, Gold and silver are up.
We have the makings of a risk on trading environment.
I am leaving things for now till the UK session begins. Anything can still happen
EDIT:
The white line is close...

This is the sp500 cash chart. I am posting it here because it is my most watched stock market instrument and most times correlates with bitcoin in price movement.
Yesterday we got some retracement and I am surprised at the upmove and the buying off the low. If this strength carries on then bitcoin will go along with it. That is why I keep an eye on it. A healthy pullback to all the recent upmove should be more that what we see here surely. I was thinking retracement at least to 7000 area.

Great performance put in overnight by bitcoin.
Price way outside and above yesterday's range
Double top
Lots of upper wicks
Some signs of crude strength and stock market weakness
Selling against the double top on signs of more weakness

I did end up catching this wave, was just annoyed with myself by that point and didnt feel like posting a trade on here.

Still in this, and its not giving me any signs to close yet.

Well done on that trade. Was just coming to comment on the strength of the upmove and saw your post. Well done indeed. I have abandoned my short idea for now.

Thank you brotha. I think the gap at 84k is attainable

Intraday chart as things stand now

Can it break above these 2 lines overhead? I really don't think it needs to test that lower TL below

Sometimes a simple look on clean weekly chart is pretty telling. This clearly looks like a bottom is in and 98k will be targeted next.

I personally think new ATH's could be reached pretty quickly. Sure there will be some pullbacks here and there, but I wouldn't dare short anything at this point.

Things could change though. Trying to stay level headed and not let FOMO blind me

Price just clipped my upper borders

Wave c appears to be extending, with a high probability of completing near the 1.618 Fibonacci projection level.

This makes the (c) wave down more interesting if it happens

I will check out the weekly chart now