Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)
Don't get fooled into jumping into shorts just yet. Until the 1H crosses down we're still just ranging, that's why the 15M and 30M have crossed down. 4H and 1H should still be considered bullish. (Personally, I think we will see 235.50 retested, but that's just my opinion, what do I know?)
M2B
Also not the right moment to load longs becuse of the momentums and M30 QQE crossing
No, even I know about fib confluence! - that's what I've been using for a little while now.
Perhaps I expressed myself badly: what I'm saying is weird is that you would expect a rough coincidence in perhaps two different price areas with those 3 different time intervals, but what you've got (according to my measurement of the retracement, at least) is precisely the same prices coming out for the three different fib %s of three greatly different time intervals - confluence with all three different fib %s.
Now that - in my admittedly limited experience - IS unusual.
38.2% 231.80
50% 230.96
61.8% 230.12
You see, I noticed on the way up today that there was a slightly similar thing going on there with the fib levels - but not precisely the same. And I wondered whether this strongly 'same %, different time interval' confluence in all three % might be somehow connected with the fantastically strong rise.
So, similarly, I was wondering whether a much stronger - I mean, absolutely EXACT inter-interval confluence on all three % might mean it would drop extremely fast.
Comments?>
Here is the beginning of the new 4H candle. The 5SMA jumped 80 pips. The 4H retracement is complete, however, the 4H momentum doesn't look good for entering new longs yet. Sometimes it takes awhile during the formation of the candle for the momentum to turn up (or down). It might be best to wait for that 30M QQE to cross up before entering any new longs.
M2B
, M2B.Bruce, AWG, and anyone else who is interested. Yes, I see that the 1H QQE has crossed down but it hasn't confirmed. My chart shows the close of the previous 1H candle at 232.90 while the TFT is around 232.70 (though the TFT will continue to move until the present 1H candle closes). I definitely think we are ranging and might continue ranging until 0400 GMT. I don't think it would be wise to take a short position based upon the condition of the present 1H chart, but that's just my opinion and I don't claim to know much. Hope that helps.
M2B
Here's my analysis .......for what its worth
we just saw it test the weekly 5sma (@234.56) it bounced off it.....now its down to the daily 5sma and testing it as support (@232.65). Now, if this decides to break through the daily 5sma....then, we will have a continuation of a bear sentiment. we won't know until the day closes below the 5sma...this will be a true confirmation....until then, i think we're ranging.
let me know what you think M2B
Fibs are great.. however it seems to me that there are too many options that you can base them on..
It you are using vt.. just put the daily pivots on as an indicator.. or draw them on.. i think you will be amazed how well those levels are respected..
This is probably even more true on the USD/JPY but check it out for yourself..
I have heard that pivots are what the big boys use.. and I have also heard that they are very disciplined in their targets.. round number pivots.. 50% of pivot etc.
I have tried fibs and they don't work for me.. I prefer the pivots and the 5sma for retraces / confluence on the pivots
Are you saying that your present Day candle for Wednesday hasn't closed yet or are you talking about the close of Thursday's Day candle? My Wednesday Day candle closed at 00 GMT as a bullish candle above the 5SMA. If you are talking about the close of Thursday's Day candle then I totally agree with your analysis, but I don't think we'll have to wait until the close of tomorrow's candle to find some good trades. There should be some pips to be made in the meantime.
M2B
