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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #18,381
  • Aug 29, 2007 6:19pm Aug 29, 2007 6:19pm
Quoting my2buoys
This looks like the 4H retracement which is long overdue. If it completes before 8PM EST it could go as low as 232.30. Because volume is still low it probably won't go that low. 5SMA will probably come up to meet price somewhere between there and where price is right now.

M2B
Agree...
  • #18,382
  • Aug 29, 2007 6:25pm Aug 29, 2007 6:25pm
Again I ask what direction does this pair go relative to the Nikkei? Since it is about to open. Does it go up if it goes up or does it go opposite?
  • #18,383
  • Aug 29, 2007 6:25pm Aug 29, 2007 6:25pm
fyi, saw on bloomberg, hedge fund files for bankruptcy might cause some jitters in Tokyo

Yen Strengthens Against Euro, Dollar on Hedge Fund Bankruptcy

By David McIntyre
Aug. 30 (Bloomberg) -- The yen strengthened against the dollar and euro as investors sold riskier assets after Australian firm Basis Capital Fund Management Ltd. said one of its hedge funds had filed for bankruptcy protection.
Japan's currency rose to 115.86 per dollar at 8 a.m. in Tokyo from 116.17 late in New York yesterday. The yen advanced to 158.34 per euro from 158.89.
To contact the reporter on this story: David McIntyre in Sydney at [color=#0000ff][email protected][/color]
Last Updated: August 29, 2007 19:09 EDT
  • #18,384
  • Aug 29, 2007 6:28pm Aug 29, 2007 6:28pm
ps --what aided the long yesterday is the interest factor tootogether with techs--triple wednesday interest for those who held their longs

im a bull follower today
  • #18,385
  • Aug 29, 2007 6:28pm Aug 29, 2007 6:28pm
Quoting my2buoys
This looks like the 4H retracement which is long overdue. If it completes before 8PM EST it could go as low as 232.30. Because volume is still low it probably won't go that low. 5SMA will probably come up to meet price somewhere between there and where price is right now.

M2B
I thought about the 4hr. retrace but I didn't take the weaker momentum into account! The 5sma could come up to meet the price.

Thanks!!
  • #18,386
  • Aug 29, 2007 6:32pm Aug 29, 2007 6:32pm
Quoting Spent1
Again I ask what direction does this pair go relative to the Nikkei? Since it is about to open. Does it go up if it goes up or does it go opposite?

GJ doesn't really follow Nikkei movement , but if Nikkei goes up , i guess GJ should do the same like it did during yesterday's session
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #18,387
  • Aug 29, 2007 6:35pm Aug 29, 2007 6:35pm
i was mentioning the close above 50ema on 4hr chart
chk it out--its made a big move after that ( i follow fxdd--mt4 candles)--too bad i slept over it !
--its crossed/broken/clsed above the 4hr TL too
--its closed above 38.2% tough daily fib---now on its way to 50% daily fib which is around 235.20
--4hr--its closed above the 100sma-- hopefully we get a pull back from there--as need to reload my bazooka

once again--im tagged to the bulls today (for g/u too)

1st tgt -- 235.20
2nd tgt--238.30 (50ema-daily)
  • #18,388
  • Aug 29, 2007 6:38pm Aug 29, 2007 6:38pm
Quoting Spent1
Again I ask what direction does this pair go relative to the Nikkei? Since it is about to open. Does it go up if it goes up or does it go opposite?
when the nikkei goes up, gj is more likely to go up. In japan, a stronger stock market produces a weaker currency.

the correlation is not nearly as strong with the nikkei as it is with the US stock market. I basically use it as insurance. If the market is down, I am fairly confident that my shorts are not going to get hit with a big upswing.

If the nikkei opens strong, the current retracement in GJ will probably stop and it will either go up or start ranging.
  • #18,389
  • Aug 29, 2007 6:40pm Aug 29, 2007 6:40pm
Quoting Wahoo
fyi, saw on bloomberg, hedge fund files for bankruptcy might cause some jitters in Tokyo

Yen Strengthens Against Euro, Dollar on Hedge Fund Bankruptcy

By David McIntyre
Aug. 30 (Bloomberg) -- The yen strengthened against the dollar and euro as investors sold riskier assets after Australian firm Basis Capital Fund Management Ltd. said one of its hedge funds had filed for bankruptcy protection.
Japan's currency rose to 115.86 per dollar at 8 a.m. in Tokyo from 116.17 late in New York yesterday. The yen advanced to 158.34 per euro from 158.89.
To contact the reporter on this story: David McIntyre in Sydney at [color=#0000ff][email protected][/color]
Last Updated: August 29, 2007 19:09 EDT
This news could cause a trend reversal as most likely Dow would go down tomorrow http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon9.gif
Amazing few hours ago was bull, now probably is bear ... cool ..see ..opportunity is always pesent .. this is what I like in forex .. always an opportunity .. just have to catch it right
  • #18,390
  • Aug 29, 2007 6:41pm Aug 29, 2007 6:41pm
Thanks Markam
  • #18,391
  • Aug 29, 2007 6:44pm Aug 29, 2007 6:44pm
Quoting Spent1
Thanks Markam
no problem. I just hedged my shorts while I wait to see what the japanese market does.
  • #18,392
  • Aug 29, 2007 6:47pm Aug 29, 2007 6:47pm
Good morning fellas

I'm assuming that Aus's in bed catching some well earned rest?

Could we be looking at a reversal?

I've got 2 TF's (15mins and 30mins) that are bearish with the candle's below the TFT line.

If GJ is going to retrace to around 232.19 could a 1hr candle close below the TFT in just over an hours time? If that happened it may be possible that the QQE could cross over too.
  • #18,393
  • Aug 29, 2007 6:50pm Aug 29, 2007 6:50pm
Quoting markam
no problem. I just hedged my shorts while I wait to see what the japanese market does.
Markam,

You are shorting this pair? ..wow .. surprised me .. what make you do that? Quite bravery http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif
I know you like to take risk to scalp.
  • #18,394
  • Aug 29, 2007 6:50pm Aug 29, 2007 6:50pm
Quoting markam
when the nikkei goes up, gj is more likely to go up. In japan, a stronger stock market produces a weaker currency.

the correlation is not nearly as strong with the nikkei as it is with the US stock market. I basically use it as insurance. If the market is down, I am fairly confident that my shorts are not going to get hit with a big upswing.

If the nikkei opens strong, the current retracement in GJ will probably stop and it will either go up or start ranging.
Well said!!
  • #18,395
  • Aug 29, 2007 6:52pm Aug 29, 2007 6:52pm
Quoting mktjong
Markam,

You are shorting this pair? ..wow .. surprised me .. what make you do that? Quite bravery http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif
I know you like to take risk to scalp.
I got my butt handed to me today by stock market investors that have less intelligence than your average guppy.
  • #18,396
  • Aug 29, 2007 6:58pm Aug 29, 2007 6:58pm
Watch the opening of the next 4H candle at 00 GMT. The 5SMA jumped up 100 pips from the close of the 1200 candle to the opening of the 1600 candle. If we see the same kind of jump at the start of the next 4H candle we will have achieved a full 4H 5SMA retracement. If that happens and the Momentum on the 4H candle is turned up at a good angle it will signal a good opportunity to go long again. I know the 15M and 30M QQE's are turned down but strong momentum at the beginning of the 4H could pull them back up. To be safe it would be best to wait for the 30M to cross back up obviously.

M2B
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpy 4h.gif Size: 22 KB
  • #18,397
  • Aug 29, 2007 7:00pm Aug 29, 2007 7:00pm
Scalp short 233.25 tp 232.25 sl 234.25
  • #18,398
  • Aug 29, 2007 7:04pm Aug 29, 2007 7:04pm
Does anybody have a link to a better source for nikkei data than yahoo. yahoos always seems to be seriously delayed.
  • #18,399
  • Aug 29, 2007 7:04pm Aug 29, 2007 7:04pm
Quoting my2buoys
Watch the opening of the next 4H candle at 00 GMT. The 5SMA jumped up 100 pips from the close of the 1200 candle to the opening of the 1600 candle. If we see the same kind of jump at the start of the next 4H candle we will have achieved a full 4H 5SMA retracement. If that happens and the Momentum on the 4H candle is turned up at a good angle it will signal a good opportunity to go long again. I know the 15M and 30M QQE's are turned down but strong momentum at the beginning of the 4H could pull them back up. To be safe it would be best to wait for the 30M to cross back up obviously.

M2B
Very nice call, spot on...
  • #18,400
  • Aug 29, 2007 7:06pm Aug 29, 2007 7:06pm
Here is the beginning of the new 4H candle. The 5SMA jumped 80 pips. The 4H retracement is complete, however, the 4H momentum doesn't look good for entering new longs yet. Sometimes it takes awhile during the formation of the candle for the momentum to turn up (or down). It might be best to wait for that 30M QQE to cross up before entering any new longs.

M2B
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpy 4h.gif Size: 21 KB
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