"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
- #321
- Apr 5, 2026 10:17am Apr 5, 2026 10:17am
- Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Live and learn. | 25,278 Posts
- #322
- Apr 6, 2026 1:01pm Apr 6, 2026 1:01pm
- Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Live and learn. | 25,278 Posts
That's a 10pt range today in the last 90+ minutes. Getting to be pretty common to see this. Not sure if I have a plausible conspiracy theory, but the answer is to trade right into it.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
- #323
- Apr 7, 2026 8:18pm Apr 7, 2026 8:18pm
- Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Live and learn. | 25,278 Posts
I put on this hi-lo right when I heard the news they were working on the Pakistani-brokered cease-fire, near the end of the day. Hi-Lo was the wrong trade - shoulda been a symmetrical fly with the vert hedge, or even better - just the vertical. But, of course, I dint know cease-fire would be a done deal. I only knew there would be a big relief rally if it was. So anyway, the hi-lo will still make money. Looks like the vert will be near max gain, and the bwf will be near max loss. Game plan will be to cash out the vert early, then sit on the bwf to see if it will fall back into smaller loss or even profit.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
- #324
- Apr 7, 2026 8:22pm Apr 7, 2026 8:22pm
- Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Live and learn. | 25,278 Posts
here's the bwf alone
..and the call vert alone....
I want to to see SPX go to 6820 or better at the open and I will take it off.
..and the call vert alone....
I want to to see SPX go to 6820 or better at the open and I will take it off.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
- #325
- Apr 7, 2026 8:53pm Apr 7, 2026 8:53pm
- Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Live and learn. | 25,278 Posts
hi-lo good to use to find a very low to no risk directional trade - as shown @ 2dte, risk is $0 IF you take it off at 1dte & don't let it ride if SPX goes past the bwf gut strike
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
- #326
- Apr 7, 2026 8:55pm Apr 7, 2026 8:55pm
- Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Live and learn. | 25,278 Posts
if you think there's a big move coming, increase the verts for a larger reward. Risk can still be low, relative to potential gain.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
- #329
- Apr 8, 2026 10:04am Apr 8, 2026 10:04am
- Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Live and learn. | 25,278 Posts
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
- #330
- Apr 8, 2026 10:30am Apr 8, 2026 10:30am
- Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Live and learn. | 25,278 Posts
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
- #331
- Apr 8, 2026 10:45am Apr 8, 2026 10:45am
- Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Live and learn. | 25,278 Posts
betting we give some back by Friday. PCE/CPI, shaky cease fire, etc. I had pitiful results shorting the market thru March, usually had my clock cleaned by rando truthtweets. We'll see if my luck can change. If I see a dip I'll get in something bullish also.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
- #332
- Apr 8, 2026 12:54pm Apr 8, 2026 12:54pm
- Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Live and learn. | 25,278 Posts
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
- #335
- Apr 15, 2026 8:40pm Apr 15, 2026 8:40pm
- Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Live and learn. | 25,278 Posts
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
- #336
- May 9, 2026 9:47pm May 9, 2026 9:47pm
- Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Live and learn. | 25,278 Posts
For the one-way bull market. Also go-to for ER trades with upside only - almost all tech.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
- #337
- May 11, 2026 12:06pm May 11, 2026 12:06pm
- Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Live and learn. | 25,278 Posts
abandoning former hi/lo for these asymmetrical flys, which have no margin hit & are less complicated. Cost a little more, but pay better. Short only today, had to wait for it, but worked out.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
- #338
- May 11, 2026 12:28pm May 11, 2026 12:28pm
- Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Live and learn. | 25,278 Posts
I can enter at 1dte for the next day, double up and probably one side will do well. Costs more @ 1dte, but not by much. Generally, if I go 15/10, the put fly will be about $2 +/-, and the calls about $3.
Otherwise, can wait til the first hour of 0dte and go one sided, either with or counter opening trend.
Otherwise, can wait til the first hour of 0dte and go one sided, either with or counter opening trend.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
- #339
- Edited May 12, 2026 8:39am May 11, 2026 8:39pm | Edited May 12, 2026 8:39am
- Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Live and learn. | 25,278 Posts
entered for Tues, up a few bucks, need a dip below 7390
.....closed early for $3.60
.....closed early for $3.60
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
- #340
- May 12, 2026 11:34am May 12, 2026 11:34am
- Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Live and learn. | 25,278 Posts
just watching to see how it looks into the close. On these asymm flys I think, if there is a big move into the fly, the best thing to do is to hold til late. I had shit to do and wasn't sure I'd be back in time, so I closed in the first hour.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake