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Why Smart Traders Watch the First Hour (Initial Balance Guide)

  • #441
  • Apr 14, 2026 11:40pm Apr 14, 2026 11:40pm
Quoting driven18
{quote} I trade only one instrument, Dow Futures and I know it in and out. Fact that it has only 30 stocks is an edge in itself. When I need to be more adventurous I can always up the position size.
Like i said , its just my take on things..
I only traded the cable for years, and as you said, i knew it inside out too, still do..
But found when using an EA, you dont have that Spider sense tingle feeling that you can only have from watching live. Some days you could just see the buyer or sellers so easily. But just cant be stuffed staring at screens anymore, far more to life and where I live now, NY is far from time zone friendly..

So when it came to hard code, Cable would get whipped, take trades that I personally wouldnt of live etc etc.
thus Ive ended up trading a basket. Works for me, and stoked Dow works for you
Im only here for the Guzzoline...
  • #442
  • Apr 15, 2026 5:39am Apr 15, 2026 5:39am
Quoting Rfastrat
{quote} no, its all price the DOM is because I am trading the NQ futures, I have attached the V1 indicator so you can put it into Tradingview {file} It should work on all assets but I designed it for the NQ & ES
Not really sure at what I'm looking here or how to read it. Can you give us a walk through?
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  • #443
  • Apr 15, 2026 6:13am Apr 15, 2026 6:13am
Quoting Rfastrat
If you can make this work, I would be keen to see how, as I have tested it in as many ways as I can think of on ES & NQ This was the first strategy that I was taught for trading forex many years ago, and the system has never got old, but it also never really made me enough money to keep going with it. Yet, loads of traders say they make it work. Here is my most recent foray into making this work in the US indices: IB / Opening Range Breakout Research Summary Short answer: Do not pursue further. We've tested these thoroughly from multiple angles...
I see your website. Nice stuff.
In Module 4 you talk about the possibility of skipping the Stop-Above entries.
I'm wondering why you didn't consider skipping the Normal Entries INSTEAD, given the difference in win rate and the fact that you calculated a 100 disaster stop to be sufficient?

EDIT - of course I realise the sample size would then only be 50, but it shouldn't be too hard to just run it on a larger data range so that you get your 100 trades
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  • #444
  • Apr 15, 2026 8:20am Apr 15, 2026 8:20am
Today's trades. Profits on all three indexes. The recovery has been insane.
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  • #445
  • Apr 15, 2026 8:21am Apr 15, 2026 8:21am
Quoting Danger-Mouse
{quote} I see your website. Nice stuff. In Module 4 you talk about the possibility of skipping the Stop-Above entries. I'm wondering why you didn't consider skipping the Normal Entries INSTEAD, given the difference in win rate and the fact that you calculated a 100 disaster stop to be sufficient? EDIT - of course I realise the sample size would then only be 50, but it shouldn't be too hard to just run it on a larger data range so that you get your 100 trades {image}
If you have a bigger data set, yes, you would be able to get more than 100 trades. I would just say, this is all about trying to get rid of rubbish strategies early. I have been down a lot of rabbit holes and I am tired of wasting time on overfitted strategies. If the hypothesis fails over the 6-years I doubt it will do any better in the future. If a strategy hasn't produced 100 trades in a relatively short period of time, I probably don't want to trade it.
Thanks for looking at the site, I hope it helps in the future.
  • #446
  • Apr 15, 2026 8:27am Apr 15, 2026 8:27am
Quoting Danger-Mouse
{quote} I see your website. Nice stuff. In Module 4 you talk about the possibility of skipping the Stop-Above entries. I'm wondering why you didn't consider skipping the Normal Entries INSTEAD, given the difference in win rate and the fact that you calculated a 100 disaster stop to be sufficient? EDIT - of course I realise the sample size would then only be 50, but it shouldn't be too hard to just run it on a larger data range so that you get your 100 trades {image}
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This is the Stop Above (moving average shifted -3) in action. The big drop had occurred, we then had two consecutive higher highs, and that was the trigger for a long. Then I would have had to have had a stop lower, than the moving average, and then wait for the average to move below the price action as the trend developed, so I could then trail the stop along the moving average etc. Hope that makes sense.
  • #447
  • Apr 15, 2026 9:08am Apr 15, 2026 9:08am
Quoting eadweardcap
{quote} Not really sure at what I'm looking here or how to read it. Can you give us a walk through? {image}
Quote
Rfastrat how do you personally in your trading, use price to define a range?

The indicator was just an attempt to define a basic range, and a close above or below it. Without considering time. Just basic price action. It will be something I consider developing along the line, with an attempt to filter out more of the little ranges that would whip-saw a position with a tight stop, or kill your account if the SL was placed at the bottom of a larger range.
  • #448
  • Apr 15, 2026 9:27am Apr 15, 2026 9:27am
Quoting Rfastrat
{quote} If you have a bigger data set, yes, you would be able to get more than 100 trades. I would just say, this is all about trying to get rid of rubbish strategies early. I have been down a lot of rabbit holes and I am tired of wasting time on overfitted strategies. If the hypothesis fails over the 6-years I doubt it will do any better in the future. If a strategy hasn't produced 100 trades in a relatively short period of time, I probably don't want to trade it. Thanks for looking at the site, I hope it helps in the future.
I'd agree, it is too few trades on that system, certainly for an active "trader". I just mentioned it because a huge majority of the profit in that system came from the stop-above trades.
  • #449
  • Apr 15, 2026 9:44am Apr 15, 2026 9:44am
Quoting Danger-Mouse
{quote} I'd agree, it is too few trades on that system, certainly for an active "trader". I just mentioned it because a huge majority of the profit in that system came from the stop-above trades.
Yes, I would trade the Stop Above set up if it presented, as per the example above. It only references the automatic stop on the moving average, you just ignore that whilst price is below and set a 100pt stop or more, and then trail with the Moving Average once the trend establishes itself. There would have been a couple of hard stops as the price came down from the highs, but todays price action would have cleared all of that DD, but with the idea of staying with this trend now for as long as possible.
  • #450
  • Edited 6:24am Apr 17, 2026 6:01am | Edited 6:24am
Sometimes you done when market is yet to be open, +300 points, Dow Futures 10 Min TF
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  • #451
  • Apr 17, 2026 6:39am Apr 17, 2026 6:39am
Quoting driven18
Sometimes you done when market is yet to be open, +300 points, Dow Futures 10 Min TF {image}
Yes, done here as well. Esoecially on a Friday, 3 day weekend!!!!
  • #452
  • Apr 17, 2026 7:45am Apr 17, 2026 7:45am
Markets are just ripping today. All time highs again. Insane! Lost $1.09 on the S&P500 but made it up with Nasdaq and Dow Jones profits what a crazy month!
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  • #453
  • Apr 18, 2026 9:35am Apr 18, 2026 9:35am
Quoting eadweardcap
Trading Initial Balances The concept of initial balance comes from market profile theory, developed by J. Peter Steidlmayer and the Chicago Board of Trade in the 1980s. The initial balance refers to the price range established during the first hour of trading (or sometimes the first 30 minutes, depending on the market). This opening period is considered significant because it represents the first opportunity for all market participants to react to overnight developments, news, and order flow. The range created during this time serves as a benchmark...
the Initial Balance is one of the simplest yet most powerful concepts.
I’ve noticed that the first hour really shows the market’s intention. If price breaks and holds outside the range, it usually continues. But if it fails and comes back inside, that’s where reversals happen.
I don’t overcomplicate it. I just watch how price reacts around that range and stay patient.
For me, it’s not about predicting it’s about reacting to what the market shows.
  • #454
  • Apr 18, 2026 9:37am Apr 18, 2026 9:37am
Quoting Rfastrat
{quote} Yes, I would trade the Stop Above set up if it presented, as per the example above. It only references the automatic stop on the moving average, you just ignore that whilst price is below and set a 100pt stop or more, and then trail with the Moving Average once the trend establishes itself. There would have been a couple of hard stops as the price came down from the highs, but todays price action would have cleared all of that DD, but with the idea of staying with this trend now for as long as possible.
I usually don’t rely on the moving average stop early on either. While price is still below or not clearly trending, a fixed stop makes more sense. Once the trend starts to establish, then trailing with the moving average works much better.
There will always be a few hard stops during pullbacks, but if the overall trend is strong, it usually recovers and pays back.
For me, the main idea is to stay with the trend as long as the structure supports it, instead of getting shaken out too early.
  • #455
  • Apr 20, 2026 6:36am Apr 20, 2026 6:36am
Here we go, Monday, few minutes into the market - Done for today! Dow Futures 10 Min TF
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  • #456
  • Apr 20, 2026 7:12am Apr 20, 2026 7:12am
Caught this
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  • #457
  • Apr 22, 2026 8:48am Apr 22, 2026 8:48am
Today's trades. Long on S&P 500 and Nasdaq. Manual trades since the range size was not within range.
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  • #458
  • Apr 23, 2026 7:59am Apr 23, 2026 7:59am
Today's trades. S&P 500 and Dow Jones long positions.
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  • #459
  • Apr 24, 2026 8:46am Apr 24, 2026 8:46am
Today's trades: 2 Losses, 2 wins, a small profit.
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  • #460
  • Apr 29, 2026 11:51am Apr 29, 2026 11:51am
Hey everyone! Been a bit quiet because I've been working on a dashboard for range trading. It's a beta version and only serves as a dashboard/indicator. Haven't added options for trading.

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The dashboard gives you an option of choosing up to 40 symbols. You can write them into the variables, BUT they need to be already in the MetaTrader's Market Watch window. Also, YOU MUST write the symbol as it appears or as your broker names them. Example, if your broker labels the S&P 500 as "US500" do not type "USPX500".

In the variables, for each symbol you can choose the Range Time Start (RTS) and Range Time End (RTE). When entering the Range Time End, you must put it 1 minute before the desired time. Example: if the 1hr opening range starting at 16:00 then the Range Time End should be 16:59.

Average number. In the variables, each symbol has a variable labeled "DTA" this stands for Day Time Average. The dashboard measures the Average Daily Range (ADR) and the average range size for the selected range. So the number in "DTA" will be the number of days the dashboard will look back and calculate the average ADR and range size.

Now, for an explanation of each column:

  1. Ask/Bid: the asking price and the bid price for the selected symbol
  2. Bid Ratio: calculates where the current bid price sits within today's price range, expressed as a percentage.
  3. BQR: Bid-Quote Ratio measures how far price is from the middle of today's range, the direction (positive = bullish, negative = bearish), the magnitude (how extreme the position is)
  4. W Chg %: Weekly change measured in percentages calculated using the Arithmetic Return
  5. D Chg %: Daily change measured in percentages calculated using the Arithmetic Return
  6. 4h Chg %: 4 hour change measured in percentages calculated using the Arithmetic Return
  7. 52wk H/L: highest and lowest prices for the past 52 weeks (1 year)
  8. YTD%: Year to date change measured in percentages calculated using the Arithmetic Return
  9. ADR: Average Daily Range is calculated as Daily Range = High - Low, then the average is of the number of days indicated in the DTA variable
  10. AvgRange: the average size of the specified range for the number of days indicated in the DTA variable.
  11. TdyRange: today's range size.


There is also a module for opened positions. Pretty self explanatory.

Lastly, I added an economic calander using the events from the MetaTrader terminal. Only high importance events are displayed.

So please download, let me know what you guys think and any improvements on this that can be made!

Attached File(s)
File Type: ex5 Range_Trading_Dashboard.ex5   77 KB | 35 downloads
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