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Why Smart Traders Watch the First Hour (Initial Balance Guide)

  • #421
  • Apr 6, 2026 2:48pm Apr 6, 2026 2:48pm
Today's trades. Only Dow Jones and S&P500. I had some problems with the VPS didn't think the trades were taken, came back later and opened MT5 with the EA still on and triggered positions again. Closed those quickly as soon as they broke even.
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  • #422
  • Apr 8, 2026 9:33am Apr 8, 2026 9:33am
Today's trades. Dow Jones didnt meet the range size criteria so no trades were taken. Same as yesterday, none of the ranges met the size criteria so no trades were taken yesterday on all three indexes.
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  • #423
  • Apr 9, 2026 10:37am Apr 9, 2026 10:37am
Small profit today. S&P500 short stopped out and two profitable trades with Nasdaq and Dow Jones positions.
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  • #424
  • Apr 13, 2026 8:57am Apr 13, 2026 8:57am
Happy Monday! Today's trades. Only a Dow Jones Long since S&P and Nasdaq didnt meet range size criteria.
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  • #425
  • Apr 14, 2026 5:42am Apr 14, 2026 5:42am
If you can make this work, I would be keen to see how, as I have tested it in as many ways as I can think of on ES & NQ
This was the first strategy that I was taught for trading forex many years ago, and the system has never got old, but it also never really made me enough money to keep going with it. Yet, loads of traders say they make it work.

Here is my most recent foray into making this work in the US indices:

IB / Opening Range Breakout Research Summary

Short answer: Do not pursue further. We've tested these thoroughly from multiple angles and all approaches failed.

What was tested

H40 — Key Level Breakouts (inc. IB, OR) as entry triggers
The most comprehensive test. Covered 9 configurations, 7 level types (PDH/PDL, OR, IB, VAH/VAL, Asia/London H/L), 2 instruments, 4 timeframes, 5 session windows, 4 narrative sequences. Every combination failed. Gross PnL ≈ 0 at every level — costs make everything negative. STATUS: FAILED

H41/H42/H43 — Opening Range CE Counter-Trend (OR30, OR60)
Applied the H25 structural template (breach + revert to CE) to the first 30 and 60 minutes of RTH. Both failed Gate 1 decisively. OR30 CE short had only 39-42% WR — price trends through the CE rather than reverting. Why: OR is the most watched level and institutional positioning is established by then. STATUS: FAILED

H28 — IB Sweep-and-Fade
The most promising IB test. Fade the IB sweep when it opposes D1 auction bias. NQ primary config: 123 trades, 57.7% WR, +$18.65/trade, DD $960. Directionally correct and walk-forward consistent (62%) on NQ, but p=0.132 fails the p<0.05 gate. ES even weaker (p=0.143, WF only 53%). STATUS: FAILED (Gate 1)

H13 — OG + Opening Range Break + FVG Retest
Scanner found +2-4 pts forward returns; full bar-by-bar strategy execution produced -$4.79/trade, p=0.898. The scanner edge evaporated completely in realistic execution.
STATUS: FAILED

---
Why these all fail

The consistent finding across all IB/OR research:

1. Continuation (breakout) = zero edge. IB breakout showed <0.6 pts, p>0.08 in the profiler. The break itself is noise.
2. Fade (counter-trend) = real direction, not significant. H28 found the right direction but it's not strong enough to hit p<0.05 at realistic sample sizes.
3. The IB is too efficiently priced. It includes the opening cross (highest volume period of the day) — institutional positioning is fully established, making it harder to manipulate than the pre-market range.
4. The underlying physics exist but aren't exploitable. Air pocket velocity is real (1.47x faster between levels), levels dampen movement — but these don't translate to tradeable entry edges after costs.

The surviving implementation of the same concept

H17v2 (PM range sweep-and-fade) is the validated version of the H28 idea. The pre-market range (08:00-09:30) is built with lower volume and is more manipulable. It's the better implementation — and it's already in the deployed portfolio.

Verdict: No further investigation warranted. The IB research arc is exhausted. The edge family has been tested from every angle (breakout, fade, CE, cross-instrument divergence) and the results are consistent. Time is better spent on uncorrelated signal families.

• The person that taught me the forex version, would use the range have an OCO stop order either side , look for the first breakout , trade a RRR 1:2 , try and avoid ranges that were in a similar area of the price action over multiple days (sideways market)

Wishing you all the best with your endevour
  • #426
  • Apr 14, 2026 6:57am Apr 14, 2026 6:57am
Quoting Rfastrat
If you can make this work, I would be keen to see how, as I have tested it in as many ways as I can think of on ES & NQ This was the first strategy that I was taught for trading forex many years ago, and the system has never got old, but it also never really made me enough money to keep going with it. Yet, loads of traders say they make it work. Here is my most recent foray into making this work in the US indices: IB / Opening Range Breakout Research Summary Short answer: Do not pursue further. We've tested these thoroughly from multiple angles...
So, this post has a lot of the indicators of AI written text. Which is okay, not putting it down or anything but would you care to simplify or tell us in your own words the following:

  1. Where and how did you run these tests? Python? If so can you share the graphs and results? MT4/MT5? If so can you share the graphs and results?
  2. A lot of abbreviations, care to explain those please?

  • #427
  • Apr 14, 2026 8:12am Apr 14, 2026 8:12am
It is AI-written because I asked Claude to summarise all of the back-test data I have of trading ranges. Including the Open Range (OR) , Initial Balance (IB). I feel like I have been all around the range, looking for a pullback to halfway (CE) , a sweep of one side and then a move to the other. Each hypothesis is given a H number, each hypothesis is then coded into Python, and then tested across 6-8 years of data from DataBento on NQ and ES. But as I said at the bottom, this was the first trading strategy that I was taught in forex many years ago, where I would trade the GBP/*** and EUR/*** crosses. Asian breakout/London breakout, and every variation.

In the (ai) summary, the only real edge that I have been able to find is when a low volume range is made before (NYC) open and then there is an explosive move away from that.

All strategies are coded in Python and tested across the 3rd party data. I am trying to move away from being a discretionary trader, and one of the reasons a Range Breakout trade was so appealing across all of the years that I have traded is because they are very well defined, can be coded into an EA or algo. So like I said, if a fellow trader can make the range trade work, I would be super interested, because I feel like they should be a no-brainer, but I just can't get them to give consistent results over multiple years.
  • #428
  • Apr 14, 2026 8:21am Apr 14, 2026 8:21am
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A day like today seems no different from any other day, yet any range defined would appear to have worked. Maybe it was because yesterday was such a good reversal day. My mind boggles. But days like today are what make me think ranges could be the simplest way to capture momentum trades like the breakout.
  • #429
  • Apr 14, 2026 8:27am Apr 14, 2026 8:27am
Quoting Rfastrat
It is AI-written because I asked Claude to summarise all of the back-test data I have of trading ranges. Including the Open Range (OR) , Initial Balance (IB). I feel like I have been all around the range, looking for a pullback to halfway (CE) , a sweep of one side and then a move to the other. Each hypothesis is given a H number, each hypothesis is then coded into Python, and then tested across 6-8 years of data from DataBento on NQ and ES. But as I said at the bottom, this was the first trading strategy that I was taught in forex many years ago,...
Awesome thank you for clearing all this up for us. I did also recently stumbled on to the pre-market low volume range but havent had the time to test any variations or anything. My range break out strategy seemed to work when markets were in a bullish trend (https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...5#post15562555) but with the recent downturn and volatility the strategy staggers and doesnt provide the steady profits it does when the markets are good.
  • #430
  • Apr 14, 2026 9:35am Apr 14, 2026 9:35am
Quoting Rfastrat
It is AI-written because I asked Claude to summarise all of the back-test data I have of trading ranges. Including the Open Range (OR) , Initial Balance (IB). I feel like I have been all around the range, looking for a pullback to halfway (CE) , a sweep of one side and then a move to the other. Each hypothesis is given a H number, each hypothesis is then coded into Python, and then tested across 6-8 years of data from DataBento on NQ and ES. But as I said at the bottom, this was the first trading strategy that I was taught in forex many years ago,...
Good work on looking for the edges using AI, however I have been trading this strategy for a long time with very high success, You can check some of my charts. You all missing some important ingredients. Range does not mean a particular hours or minutes or OR or IB. Range is where you believe momentum have a chance to breakout and go your direction and then it is MM and controlling your Mindfuck. In many of my comments I point out to what is important for this strategy.
It took me 5 years of live trading to figure it out and last 5 years I am at a 100% + using this strategy.
  • #431
  • Apr 14, 2026 9:37am Apr 14, 2026 9:37am
Today's trades. Only S&P and Nasdaq trades.
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  • #432
  • Edited 10:02am Apr 14, 2026 9:48am | Edited 10:02am
Quoting driven18
{quote} Good work on looking for the edges using AI, however I have been trading this strategy for a long time with very high success, You can check some of my charts. You all missing some important ingredients. Range does not mean a particular hours or minutes or OR or IB. Range is where you believe momentum have a chance to breakout and go your direction and then it is MM and controlling your Mindfuck. In many of my comments I point out to what is important for this strategy. It took me 5 years of live trading to figure it out and last 5 years...
Right now Dow Jones Futures 10 Min TF and last week Equity line using this strategy.
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  • #433
  • Apr 14, 2026 10:35am Apr 14, 2026 10:35am
Quoting driven18
{quote} Good work on looking for the edges using AI, however I have been trading this strategy for a long time with very high success, You can check some of my charts. You all missing some important ingredients. Range does not mean a particular hours or minutes or OR or IB. Range is where you believe momentum have a chance to breakout and go your direction and then it is MM and controlling your Mindfuck. In many of my comments I point out to what is important for this strategy. It took me 5 years of live trading to figure it out and last 5 years...
I agree, especially with the fact that we're trying to avoid all of the retail traps. What I am also trying to do is find a way to define range, without using discretion.
Very easy to spot one in hindsight, not so easy to programmatically tell an EA what the definition is, without using time & price
  • #434
  • Apr 14, 2026 11:58am Apr 14, 2026 11:58am
Quoting Rfastrat
{quote} I agree, especially with the fact that we're trying to avoid all of the retail traps. What I am also trying to do is find a way to define range, without using discretion. Very easy to spot one in hindsight, not so easy to programmatically tell an EA what the definition is, without using time & price
Rfastrat how do you personally in your trading, use price to define a range?
  • #435
  • Apr 14, 2026 12:11pm Apr 14, 2026 12:11pm
Quoting Rfastrat
{quote} I agree, especially with the fact that we're trying to avoid all of the retail traps. What I am also trying to do is find a way to define range, without using discretion. Very easy to spot one in hindsight, not so easy to programmatically tell an EA what the definition is, without using time & price
As I said, I have found it and I coded into MT5 ea. Took 5 years to be comfortable with it, but if you read some of my posts, entry is mostly irrelevant as it is only 10% of the whole business of trading. I will not repeat it, other 90% are in my postings.

This is not hindsight, it is a real live trading on the large account.

https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...8#post15658118
  • #436
  • Apr 14, 2026 2:01pm Apr 14, 2026 2:01pm
Quoting eadweardcap
{quote} Rfastrat how do you personally in your trading, use price to define a range?
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It's easy to define a range, so just trying to work out what is noise and what is signal. Days like today when we see a trending move, super simple It's the 90% of the time that we're in a range that is proving more difficult
  • #437
  • Apr 14, 2026 2:10pm Apr 14, 2026 2:10pm
Quoting Rfastrat
{quote} {image} {image} It's easy to define a range, so just trying to work out what is noise and what is signal. Days like today when we see a trending move, super simple It's the 90% of the time that we're in a range that is proving more difficult
Gotcha so you're using order flows to determine the price range.
  • #438
  • Apr 14, 2026 2:20pm Apr 14, 2026 2:20pm
Quoting eadweardcap
{quote} Gotcha so you're using order flows to determine the price range.
no, its all price
the DOM is because I am trading the NQ futures, I have attached the V1 indicator so you can put it into Tradingview

Attached File(s)
File Type: zip close_range_detector.pine.zip   2 KB | 48 downloads


It should work on all assets but I designed it for the NQ & ES
  • #439
  • Apr 14, 2026 3:32pm Apr 14, 2026 3:32pm
My take on it FWIW..
By trading only one instrument on a daily basis you tend to force or create trades that just are not there.
Its why I scan 20+ crosses and only trade the cross in the tightest range.
This was todays dash and trade i took. ALL done using EA's whilst I slept. ( I live in Bali so NY is very early morning )
I think of it as a sniper.. One Shot, One kill........
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Im only here for the Guzzoline...
  • #440
  • Apr 14, 2026 11:38pm Apr 14, 2026 11:38pm
Quoting TheCableman
My take on it FWIW.. By trading only one instrument on a daily basis you tend to force or create trades that just are not there. Its why I scan 20+ crosses and only trade the cross in the tightest range. This was todays dash and trade i took. ALL done using EA's whilst I slept. ( I live in Bali so NY is very early morning ) I think of it as a sniper.. One Shot, One kill........ {image} {image}
I trade only one instrument, Dow Futures and I know it in and out. Fact that it has only 30 stocks is an edge in itself.

When I need to be more adventurous I can always up the position size.
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