Daily Market Analysis (04.13.2026) | zForex.com

Iran Talks Collapse and USD Gains Again (04.13.2026)

The dollar index moved back above 99, regaining ground as demand for safety increased. Persistent geopolitical strain and elevated energy costs continued to support the currency.

The euro retreated under renewed dollar strength, while sterling also softened amid rising geopolitical uncertainty. USD/JPY remained near the 160 level, with intervention risks limiting further upside. The offshore yuan weakened to around 6.83 per dollar, ending a six-session advance.

In commodities, gold and silver declined as inflation fears and expectations of tighter monetary policy outweighed safe-haven demand. Overall, sentiment deteriorated significantly as escalating tensions drove investors toward the dollar.

Brent crude surged about 8% to around $103 per barrel, recovering last week’s losses after the United States announced a blockade targeting vessels entering or leaving Iranian ports following failed negotiations.

US stock futures started the week lower after Donald Trump announced a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz following the collapse of US–Iran negotiations. Major indexes fell by more than 1%, while JD Vance left Islamabad without progress, citing unresolved disputes over Iran’s nuclear policy. Rising energy prices added pressure just as earnings season began, with major banks set to report.

The US 10-year Treasury yield rose to around 4.35%, reversing last week’s decline as tension intensified. Higher oil prices reinforced inflation risks, strengthening expectations that the Federal Reserve may keep policy tight for longer.

Bitcoin traded at 71,234, rising 0.71% from the previous session. Over the past four weeks, performance has remained nearly flat with a gain of 0.01%.

Technical Outlook on Charts
Euro Falls as Diplomacy Falters
Gold Slips on Blockade Concerns
USD/JPY Finds Resistance Near 160.00
Sterling Softens Against the Dollar
Silver Slides Under $74

Well, that escalated exactly the way most of us feared over the weekend.

Just to translate this into what it actually means for XAUUSD right now:

First, the blockade changes the entire risk calculus. The Strait of Hormuz disruption is no longer a "partial" thing from February. A full US blockade on Iranian ports with Brent at $103 means inflation expectations just repriced higher across the board. That's traditionally bullish for gold as a hedge—but here's the catch.

Gold sold off on this news. Down $25‑30 from Friday's close, trading around $4,725‑$4,735 as I type this. Why? Because the dollar surged first. When the DXY jumps back above 99 and Treasuries sell off (10‑year at 4.35%), gold takes the initial hit from USD strength before any safe‑haven bid shows up. That's the lag most retail traders don't understand—they see gold down and think "bad for gold," when in reality it's just getting knocked by the dollar's immediate reaction.

The real question is what happens next. We've seen this movie before. If the blockade holds for more than a few days, oil stays above $100, inflation expectations keep rising, and central banks (especially outside the US) get more desperate to hold gold. The $4,670 support level is critical. A daily close below that, and we could test $4,600. A bounce off $4,670 with a bullish rejection candle? That's the signal that the safe‑haven bid has finally overpowered the dollar move.

The other piece nobody's talking about yet. Vance leaving Islamabad with no progress means the diplomatic channel is effectively dead for now. That raises the probability of further escalation—not de‑escalation. Gold tends to price that in slowly, then gap violently when something actually happens.

For today, I'm watching how gold behaves through the London close. If it starts recovering while the DXY stays bid, that tells you real demand is stepping in. If it continues sliding on every dollar tick higher, we're not at the bottom yet.

Curious what levels others are watching on XAUUSD through this. The 4,670‑4,700 zone or something else?

Middle East Drives China Trade

China faces significant economic exposure in the Middle East, having committed over $269 billion to investment and construction projects in the region since 2005.

Saudi Arabia leads as the top recipient with $82 billion, followed by the UAE at $48 billion, Iraq at $40 billion, and Iran at $25 billion.

The region's trade ties with China have also surged, more than doubling since 2017 to reach $317 billion in 2024.

This figure is nearly four times the $85 billion in trade recorded with the United States during the same period. These numbers highlight China's deep and growing reliance on the Middle Eastern economy.

A Reset in US Employment

The threshold for maintaining a stable unemployment rate in the United States has shifted significantly.

On average, the economy now needs to add roughly negative 3,000 jobs monthly to keep the rate steady, a sharp drop from the 250,000 monthly jobs required in mid 2023.

This decline is primarily driven by a fall in net migration. Unauthorized migration turned negative in early 2025 and averaged a loss of 55,000 people per month in the latter half of the year as departures outpaced arrivals.

With total net unauthorized migration reaching negative 548,000 for 2025, the shrinking labor pool means the economy requires much lower job growth to prevent unemployment from climbing.

This represents a major structural change in the U.S. labor market.