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The Swamp

  • #127,361
  • Apr 10, 2026 11:49am Apr 10, 2026 11:49am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Those inflation numbers are pro cut. The employment numbers are pro cut. Pro cut gives the bullish outlook on stocks. GDP .5 GDP appears pro cut. All these are pro market rise. When the oil inflation number comes. It will be anti cut. Institutions know this. This is how stagflation works.
Institutions see all these pro cut numbers. They know retailer traders mostly read the headlines. Stocks pump up. The oil inflation is not in these numbers yet. Companies sell products. All these pro cut numbers, in the long term are bad for stocks. These pro-cut headlines, are a bad economy long term numbers. On the pump institutions sell more.
They see the bad GDP, bad employment numbers. Bad employment number means less widget sales. Higher inflation outlook. The sales price of equites is based on future earnings. The future looks bad. Stocks fall. Its hard for the fed to cut with the oil inflation coming. If stocks don't drop now. Those numbers will hit in the next months data. Institutions already know those numbers will be bad because of the price of oil.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #127,362
  • Edited 12:19pm Apr 10, 2026 12:05pm | Edited 12:19pm
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20% is here. This is not 1970/1980s. But dont think it can't drop 50%. It has done that with past stagflation. In 2008 is was a liquidity dry up. A pump in oil with a pump in housing prices. We got that here now too. We dont know where oil is going. We also have the student loan crisis. Also a credit card crises. A shuriken GDP, and 0 employment. Potentially this is worse than 2008. In 2008/2009 we had some people who had a better grasp on reality than the current nuts. The petro dollar helped the usa come out of it faster. Next time it may be harder with a wounded petro dollar.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #127,363
  • Apr 10, 2026 12:25pm Apr 10, 2026 12:25pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Bonds are routinely sold to Japan China etc. They are cutting back. When they stop buying, more are bought domestically through banks, pensions etc... That's the safety net. This can get away from the USA very quickly. Liquidity can dry up quickly. If banks are buying bonds. There is less money to loan. If they are buying bonds, that's less demand for stock prices. Bonds prices are easing up near 5%. Yeah that happens normally. Normally no big deal. It wont matter on a chart. But when Japan, China and others are pulling back. It causes a...
This is the cost of pulling the lever for an idiot.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #127,364
  • Apr 10, 2026 2:26pm Apr 10, 2026 2:26pm
Quoting gatorinla
Just when he thought the spot light was off the E files. Melania puts a "I did not have sex with that women" video out. The war fuck up, now with more E file news. She must know he only has a few weeks to live. The frontal lobe dementia is getting worse. The rats are jumping ship, Something big must be coming out.
The plot thickens. It seems a bean spiller has emerged.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #127,365
  • Apr 11, 2026 2:09am Apr 11, 2026 2:09am
cameroon, china, india ,and pakistan flagged ships....and Botswana...that made me laugh being landlocked. So not the supporters of the war...
Maybe the Botswana one was chevron in disguse
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Its all just one persons opinion
  • #127,366
  • Apr 11, 2026 6:54am Apr 11, 2026 6:54am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} The plot thickens. It seems a bean spiller has emerged.
Melania must have got legal advise to distance herself. She said she wants victims to testify now. She threw DT under the bus. Amanda must have the dirt on them all. Amanda better get protection. Many attached to this are dying. Starting a war to misdirect the news isn't working. Melania put the spotlight back on DT. Roaches scatter in the light. The coverup has legs.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #127,367
  • Apr 11, 2026 7:46am Apr 11, 2026 7:46am
Moody's Recession Model Is Just 1 Percentage Point Away From a Signal That Has Never Been Wrong.

After sliding nearly 6% so far this year, the S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) could be in for more trouble. Moody's AI-driven recession model just put the odds of a U.S. downturn at 49%. The model was trained on 80 years of backtested data, and every time the odds have tipped above 50%, a recession hit within 12 months.
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The Iran War could push Moody's AI recession model over the edge
Here's what makes this especially concerning for investors: That 49% figure is based on February data, meaning it doesn't account for the U.S.-Iran War -- a war that has knocked out roughly 20% of global crude oil production, pushing oil prices well above $100 a barrel.

https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/4_...cd88dfe68a06e6
Image source: Getty Images.
The 49% reflects an already soft economy. The U.S. shed 92,000 jobs last month, well below the 59,000 gain economists expected. Gross domestic product (GDP) was revised down from 1.4% to 0.7%, while inflation is still running above the Federal Reserve's target.
Now, with a conflict-driven oil shock, the odds are very good that Moody's model will soon tip above the 50% threshold. After all, every U.S. recession since World War II, aside from the one due to COVID-19, was preceded by a spike in oil prices. https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/po...145000183.html
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #127,368
  • Apr 11, 2026 6:18pm Apr 11, 2026 6:18pm
Quoting longshot_nl
I added a pennant. It would point to about 1340, its premature though. {image}
1d fvg is wrong. its 1825.
  • #127,369
  • Apr 12, 2026 4:39am Apr 12, 2026 4:39am
Bank of America (BAC) is scheduled to release its Q1 2026 financial results on Wednesday, April 15, 2026. The earnings report is expected before the market opens, with a conference call scheduled for 8:30 AM ET. Analysts project earnings of approximately


per share for this quarter.
Bank of America +3

  1. Earnings Release Date: Wednesday, April 15, 2026.
  2. Conference Call Time: 8:30 AM ET.
  3. Quarter: Q1 2026.

https://investor.bankofamerica.com/
Wednesday before open

those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #127,370
  • Apr 12, 2026 4:50am Apr 12, 2026 4:50am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Melania must have got legal advise to distance herself. She said she wants victims to testify now. She threw DT under the bus. Amanda must have the dirt on them all. Amanda better get protection. Many attached to this are dying. Starting a war to misdirect the news isn't working. Melania put the spotlight back on DT. Roaches scatter in the light. The coverup has legs.
she could probably claim victim status
Its all just one persons opinion
  • #127,371
  • Apr 12, 2026 4:55am Apr 12, 2026 4:55am
Trump hasnt yet commented on the talks failure. Gaps on the open everywhere....how big depends on what he says between now and then
Its all just one persons opinion
  • #127,372
  • Apr 12, 2026 6:11am Apr 12, 2026 6:11am
Quoting gatorinla
Bank of America (BAC) is scheduled to release its Q1 2026 financial results on Wednesday, April 15, 2026. The earnings report is expected before the market opens, with a conference call scheduled for 8:30 AM ET. Analysts project earnings of approximately per share for this quarter. Bank of America +3 Earnings Release Date: Wednesday, April 15, 2026. Conference Call Time: 8:30 AM ET. Quarter: Q1 2026. https://investor.bankofamerica.com/ Wednesday before open
We get this Monday before open with a pulse check. It may be violent the next 4 weeks before walmart reports outlook. I think walmart will dim it. Goldmans model is milder than some.
If Golman falls 11% in the next fews weeks. It can be a bad sign. 879 has some support value. This is the smart guys betting on the economy one way or the other. Their outlook matters. Buffet is more risk conservative. But over time he has been proven to be right through the downturns. He is heavy in treasuries. Not for the yield, but for inflation.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #127,373
  • Edited 6:38am Apr 12, 2026 6:24am | Edited 6:38am
Quoting axecap
Trump hasnt yet commented on the talks failure. Gaps on the open everywhere....how big depends on what he says between now and then
Yeah well making a deal with a used car salesman. Who backs out of signed deals he made, leaves a reputation. Look at Canada and Mexico. Deal he made and signed. Later he wants more. He calls the people (himself) who made the deal he agreed to stupid. He makes us all look stupid.

He painted himself in a corner. His ignorance is writing checks his ass can't pay. The Americans will be left with the bill for decades. Thats if he didnt already bankrupt it. The same fucking Lindsey Graham crowed who cheerlead Iraq. Is doing it again. What we spent in Iraq is about 10% of the deficit. Iran is way bigger a project than Iraq. The idiot wants to cut Medicare+ to fund the trillian+ he asked for. Iraq was 3-4 trillian. Iran will be more. What did we get out of Iraq? Not a damn thing. In fact Iraq kept Iran in check. We hurt ourselves.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #127,374
  • Apr 12, 2026 12:00pm Apr 12, 2026 12:00pm
France pulls its gold out of US Federal Reserve, and now Germany, other EU states looking to do the same thing.

EU: we prefer to store our gold in a place that's not about to be looted, collapse.
Follow the money --Mark Felt (Deepthroat)
  • #127,375
  • Apr 12, 2026 12:59pm Apr 12, 2026 12:59pm
What's true or not? I hear the talks ended. USA is bombing IRAN again. I heard the straight is closed again. Trump supposedly closed it also. Meaning Iran and USA have the Straight closed. The Village Idiot starts a war. Iran closes the straight. Now the TVI evidently closes for the rest of the world. He wants the entire world to suffer. This is not a sign of salinity.
A child flips over the Monopoly board. "If I don't win nobody does" I don't hear many cheerleaders anymore. Anyone think a spoiled child is on their side? Make some more excuses.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #127,376
  • Apr 12, 2026 3:57pm Apr 12, 2026 3:57pm
Its time.
According to Article II, Section 4 of the Constitution, impeachment applies to the President, Vice President, and "all civil Officers of the United States". This includes presidentially appointed heads of agencies and cabinet members.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #127,377
  • Apr 12, 2026 4:05pm Apr 12, 2026 4:05pm
NZD -53 gap, aud -83 gap, eu-54 gap, gbp -74 gap.
chf up 13 gap.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #127,378
  • Apr 12, 2026 4:19pm Apr 12, 2026 4:19pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} We get this Monday before open with a pulse check. It may be violent the next 4 weeks before walmart reports outlook. I think walmart will dim it. Goldmans model is milder than some. If Golman falls 11% in the next fews weeks. It can be a bad sign. 879 has some support value. This is the smart guys betting on the economy one way or the other. Their outlook matters. Buffet is more risk conservative. But over time he has been proven to be right through the downturns. He is heavy in treasuries. Not for the yield, but for inflation. {image}
Goldman may have to edit the outlook before the morning. The little boy who cries wolf. Must have told Barren to long oil over the weekend.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #127,379
  • Apr 12, 2026 4:24pm Apr 12, 2026 4:24pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Goldman may have to edit the outlook before the morning. The little boy who cries wolf. Must have told Barren to long oil over the weekend.
kiwi opened .8% down
Its all just one persons opinion
  • #127,380
  • Apr 12, 2026 5:41pm Apr 12, 2026 5:41pm
So that supposedly "succesfull" rescue mission seems to be rather just a coverup for failed uranium raid. Lol.
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